PG Ratings vs HS ability

Clear it up for me som Cadad. Im not sure what you are asking.

I personally don't see a need to showcase (or pursue college baseball) if a player is not at least a starter on varsity as a junior in high school. I would give college baseball a little more respect than suggesting a non-starter in high school can play college baseball.
Fungo

Coach May,
Nothing deep. Just trying to see if there's a correlation between a PG rating and how good a player is in HS given that the PG ratings are to some degree based on projection.

Just write down:

7.0
8.0
9.0

and then for each rating tell me how good of a HS player that is in your opinion. I thought there'd have to be a range of abilities within each rating. There's no right or wrong, just thought it might be interesting to compare what people think.

For example, projection or not, I think if a player is rated a 10 he's going to be the MVP of his team unless there's another kid who would be rated just about as high. I can see where a kid could be a 9.5 and be a better HS player than a more projectable kid rated a 10 but that 10 is going to be a heckuva HS player regardless.

The "word to the wise" part was just to try to make sure that if there were people who answered this that nobody went out did anything foolish like telling a coach that their kid should be starting because he got a certain PG rating.

If your kid is the best player on the Varsity but can't play yet because he is in the 7th grade............does that help?

Now, now slugger, read the groundrules. Not too many 7th graders are juniors.

quote:

Originally posted by Fungo:
I personally don't see a need to showcase (or pursue college baseball) if a player is not at least a starter on varsity as a junior in high school. I would give college baseball a little more respect than suggesting a non-starter in high school can play college baseball.
Fungo

That is not true. One of the kids from my son high school did not make the team and received a full ride scholarship from a DI school. I believed he played with a selected team in our area afterward. A player still can showcase himself well playing with his selected team and not necessary with high school team.

My son did not the JV team either. We hope that a good selected team in our area will pick him up this summer and fall.

Daddyboy

quote:

by CaDad: Nothing deep. Just trying to see if there's a correlation between a PG rating and how good a player is in HS given that the PG ratings are to some degree based on projection.

well there is correlation, but it's the "reverse correlation" from your question

for example ...

9.5's will be top players on their HS team

all top players on their hs team will not be 9.5's


if the correlation went both ways PG would be un-necessary

daddyboy, thoughtful analysis shows fungo's statement accurately implies that ...

"as a rule - I personally don't see a need to showcase (or pursue college baseball) if a player is not at least a starter on varsity as a junior in high school"

your exception is noted as an "exception to the rule" ...

unless you are suggesting that ALL guys that don't make the hs team continue to pursue college baseball opportunities

Thanks BEE>.

quote:

That is not true.

Daddyboy, I have to say again that I think it IS true. I think it's sending the wrong message to suggest to the parents of a high school baseball player that lacks the talent to start as on the high school team as a junior that he needed to showcase his talent thus providing him with the opportunity to play college baseball. This is much different than seeing a player develop his talent on a summer team and going on to play college baseball. Showcasing is an act of showing off your ability ---- if a player doesn't have enough talent, showcasing only makes his lack of talent known to more people --- showcasing doesn’t “change” his talent whereas a summer team will. There are those that are quick to say that beauty is in the eyes of the beholder. This is true --- but beauty and talent are quite different. Beauty is a vague perception whereas baseball talent is measured with radar guns, stop watches, tape measures, batting averages and home runs. Baseball talent for the most part can be defined and rated. Showcase promoters make a living "defining and rating" players and most do it quite well. For some reason they have to throw in a little of their "perception" defining physical characteristics and mechanical actions of different players. In my opinion this perception can be misleading for parents that are searching for threads.

By the way, ugly girls should refrain from participating in beauty pageants. Participating in a beauty pageant doesn’t make one more beautiful --- but it can make your “ugly” more obvious. This may be a poor analogy because again; we know beauty is in the eyes of the beholder --- however I will go with it because we all know “ugly” when we see it!

I think you and I will agree that high school baseball ISN’T the best venue for displaying ones talent but I do think it is capable of providing enough information to parents as to what they should do if their son has aspirations of playing college baseball. I remember my son wanting to play professional basketball when he was younger. It was my responsibility to him as a father to tell him to forget about playing pro basketball instead leading him down a path of disappointment by spending money taking him to basketball camps.
Fungo

quote:

I think it's sending the wrong message to suggest to the parents of a high school baseball player that lacks the talent to start as on the high school team as a junior that he needed to showcase his talent thus providing him with the opportunity to play college baseball.

Fungo - I am a wee bit confused by your premise but I think I understand what you are saying with the beauty pagent analogy.

Look, there are some high schools that are so big that talented players are on jv's until they are seniors. Sometimes, certain classes at smaller schools have an abundance of talent for a particular period in time which might also force a kid to wait his turn at varsity. I am guessing there are kids sitting the bench at some schools that might in fact be starting somewhere else. If your premise is that talented players generally start varisty then I agree with that otherwise it (when you start) seems to be arbitrary based on circumstances. I may be missing your actual point however

We have a HS around here where 300 show up for tryouts, and only a few make the team. I know some who were good players but didn't make the team just because of the numbers. I know of some HS programs where all you have to do is show up to get on the varsity team.

I have some friends whose son's were pretty darn good ballplayers who actually had to wait until their senior year to make varsity on that team. Both went to college on bb scholarships, maybe not the top of the college bb list, but excellent academic schools. I have no clue if they are still playing.

I think what CADad is asking, can a PG showcase ranking actually determine where one should fall in the HS roster scheme of things. I am not sure if I can say yes or no considering the above scenerio. I would imagine if you have tough competitoin where you live, it makes things a bit difficult and just shows how much better you have to be to stand out among your peers.

Get out and play and be seen when HS is not in season. Relying on making the HS varsity squad to determine your future may not always be in ones best interest.

A long offseason, winter, and steroids instead of baseball games have made for some uninteresting topics....

When do politics come into play?I recall a friend of mine a few years ago was playing at another high school.He was a very good SS,good bat,rarely made an error,etc.He sat nearly his entire junior and senior season because one players father was great at bringing in money for the schools hs baseball program,and he also donated 3 new stealths to the team.

My friend went on to get a scholarship to a JUCO,and this past winter transferred to a D1 school where he will play.

I see your point,but again,in some HS politics come into play,in some HS numbers come into play as well.

quote:

For example, projection or not, I think if a player is rated a 10 he's going to be the MVP of his team unless there's another kid who would be rated just about as high. I can see where a kid could be a 9.5 and be a better HS player than a more projectable kid rated a 10 but that 10 is going to be a heckuva HS player regardless.

quote:

for example ...

9.5's will be top players on their HS team

all top players on their hs team will not be 9.5's

Bee,
I think we said the same thing. The only question is how far down in the ratings do we go before we no longer say a player is almost certainly going to be a top player on their HS team? For example, in our area at least a player rated a 7 is not necessarily a starter. I know of a player rated 6.5 who could earn a starting spot on a top team, but will most likely be a sub. I know of a player rated 7.5 who will most likely be all league. JMO, but this kid will most likely be rated much higher eventually. (BTW, none of these examples are from our school.) There are always going to be exceptions. I'm looking for more of a rule of thumb like Fungo's rule of thumb. Fungo was right as a rule of thumb and wrong if it wasn't a generalization.

The player of the year in our conference lead his team to the Division 1 state championship and dominated HS ball to an even greater extent than the Massachusetts player who was drafted highest in the MLB draft. He is now pitching at a northeast D1 school.

PG rated him a 7. Since a 7 is "a potential low round pick, D1 prospect...", that seems right. But as a high scool player he was a 10. For point of comparison, he was far more effective against the same competition as another local pitcher who PG rated an 8.5 and who will attend Clemson next year. Of course the second player is a year younger so, by the numbers, should we expect him to be even more dominant this year? Another conference pitcher, who was largely ineffective last season, was rated an 8 this summer. Finally, two pitchers from our school were rated 7.5 and neither is really close to the 7 described above.

Bottom line: The ratings measure potential, I think. I don't believe they are intended to be a snapshot of current ability in the context of HS ball. Thus, I don't think CADad's proposed exercise can be anything other than anectdotal as I'm sure we can all relate stories similar to the one I told above.

I believe the PG rating has done a world of good for my son. As an 8th grader he was told by the coach he was the last person chosen (this did wonders for his self confidence), but he ended up being a started on the freshman team. As a true freshman he was left on the freshman team while other non starters were moved up to the sophmore team. Not a big deal as he had a good year. The next two years he didnt see much playing time on the sophmore and then varsity teams and this year he dosent figure to much of a chance as the coach seems not to like him much. He has attended a few PG showcases and done pretty good. He now has Four scholarship offers on the table and is going to get a chance to play college ball while only two other kids have had offers.

quote:

We have a HS around here where 300 show up for tryouts,

How large is that HS? About 100 freshmen is the most I've heard of trying out.

I know of one huge HS that had three freshman teams.

About 3000+
Tryouts based on all grades combined.

Marjorie Stoneman Douglas HS
Parkland, FL

quote:

Originally posted by Holden Caulfield:
Bottom line: The ratings measure potential, I think. I don't believe they are intended to be a snapshot of current ability in the context of HS ball.

Perhaps not in the context of high school ball, but I believe ratings reflect both current ability and potential.

I am probably misunderstanding Fungo's point BUT...

I need to say that there are quite a few programs down here in florida where really good baseball players dont play on Varsity until they are a senior.

quote:

I remember my son wanting to play professional basketball when he was younger. It was my responsibility to him as a father to tell him to forget about playing pro basketball instead leading him down a path of disappointment by spending money taking him to basketball camps.

I informed my son he was white and probably not going to grow taller than 6'2" or 6'3". Killed that dream. He is a high school basketball player. He doesn't have any delusions of playing college basketball.

Question about the PG ratings, over the last year my son and I have been to several camps in socal, although have not attended a PG camp, have been told by numerous college coachs about speed up the middle.College coachs like to 60 see times below 7.0. Looking at the PG underclass showcase in socal recently I see numerous ratings of 8 and above for MIF and OF and not much speed, just curious how speed figures in to there evaluation, its not everything but how does a MIF get a rating of 9 and a 60 time of 7.2

Hitting and throwing.

I, for one, think this is an excellent topic for discussion. I attended several showcase events with my youngest son, four of which were PG rating events. We also attended three MLB scouting combines where players were rated. Given the assumptions made in the first post "strong team but not nationally ranked" and "juniors only" I am convinced that for the 8.5 and above PG rating or the higher level MLB ratings, a player with that type evaluation should be a varsity starter on any team in the country [unless, of course, high school politics takes precedence over talent]. The reason being, you don't see to many of them, it is usally a player that really stands out to everyone and the odds are astronomical that there would be eight other position players or 5 starting pitchers anywhere in the country on our hypothetical strong but unranked high school baseball team where ALL would be rated that high. If there is, something is going on during the recruiting phase that would smell very fishy to me or the coach can't take the highest high quality players and get nationally ranked.

That being said, when you get below 8.5, again based on my experience, you start to get a lot more players at the showcase evaluated at 7.0, 7.5 & 8.0. There could certainly be strong high quality high school programs in the country where a player within that rating range might not even make the high school team. There will be other high schools, maybe not so strong, where that same player will be the team MVP, first team all state and will be selected by the coaches as the conference Player of the Year. So many of the players in that rating zone have different strengths and weaknesses and the coach may have particular needs that need to be filled. There are just so many variables at play here. So my final answer to the initial question of CADad is this: Junior high school baseball players ranked 8.5 and above by PG or equivilant should be no lower than varsity starters and the MVP of strong but nationally unranked teams around the country. Junior high school basebll players ranked 7.0 to 8.0 by PG or equivilant could be anywhere from cut from the team to MVP.

However, since the discussion has shifted somewhat away from the initial question to high school starters/non-starters and playing in college, I would like to offer a few opinions of my own on this very different subject. Fungo, old friend, you made a VERY BOLD statement. If I may rephrase, you are saying that a player should not even pursue playing college baseball if he is not a starter on varsity as a high school junior. If you are talking about the "average" or below average high school teams in the country, I might agree with you. If you are talking about the high school teams to which CADad is referring [strong teams but not nationally ranked], I am unable to agree with you in all cases. And if you are including in that statement, say the top 25 high school teams in the nation, I definitely cannot agree with you.

Here are some reasons why I believe what I am saying. 1) There is so much disparity in the talent level/depth at the high schools across the country based on area of the country, size of school, availability of good pre-high school training/development programs, expertise and interest of coaches at all levels, etc; 2) There are so many oportunities to play college baseball at so many different levels of competition [DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, JUCO] and each college is looking for that student/athlete balance that best fits in to their program and school; 3) Politics, coaching incompetence, do exist on the high school level providing pretenders with the opportunity to play while talented players sit the bench or are not even allowed to make the team; and, finally; 4) the emphasis of most talent evaluators on size, arm strength and power potential to the detriment of other talents such as speed, quickness, defensive range and baseball smarts; not necessarily because they can't or don't want to measure that given enough time and context but because the showcase/tryout events are not able to evaluate the other factors as easily. A college camp provides the best opportunity to showcase these under evaluated talents because of the time available and the smaller numbers but it is not without its flaws.

However, everyone still needs to understand that we have at the highest levels of baseball today a debate over what combination of talent set has value and what does not. As one example of that debate, the importance or lack of importance of the ability to produce high on base percentage and slugging percentages vs high batting average and more home runs. Which statistics best measure a players "talent" or, perhaps a more important point adds "value" to the team?

I am not trying to start a debate on this particular subject here in this forum. By pointing to that diverse combination of skill sets, I am suggesting that there are college coaches on both sides of that debate and if a young man's talent is that he hits a lot of doubles & triples and gets on base frequently, he might not play for a high school coach or a college coach only interested in batting average and home runs but a different college coach might be VERY INTERESTED in that young man playing for him.

Depending on travel team availability, money and politics showcasing/tryouts may be the only chance for some players to demonstrate their talent outide their area. Although I agree that we here on the HSBBW should not encourage false hope in the young men and families that read these forums neither should we counsel forgoing the dreams of young men and their families based solely on the whim and caprice of a particular high school coach whom we know nothing about.

My advice to a player interested in playing college baseball and the parents interested in assisting him with his dream is don't give up automatically because the high school coach thinks he has no talent. Ask knowledgable baseball people in the area and, if you have the money, take him to a PG or equivalant scouting combine and talk to them afterwards. If you get some encouragement, search for the college and baseball program that is right for him. And good luck from all of us at HSBBW.

TW344

TW344, very well put!

TW344,

Wow! I appreciated your input! It was an excellent comment. Some negative comments were made previous posts made me think that my son should not even try to play baseball anymore.

Daddyboy

quote:

I need to say that there are quite a few programs down here in florida where really good baseball players dont play on Varsity until they are a senior

Estone,
I don't disagree with what you say about good baseball players not playing until they are seniors at the better high school programs but are they talented enough to play college baseball? ---- I wonder where the vast majority of players like this will end up in college? If they don't play until they are seniors in high school at what year would you expect them to play in a tougher arena (college)? Year five? I always went on the assumption that college baseball was the "next level up" and not a "lesser level" than high school baseball. I always looked at the funnel from high school to college as becoming more restrictive instead of being an open door for non impact players in high school. Many posts we read on the HSBBW indicates that ALL college players were high school "stars". Is that "bad" information? For every player you can tell me that didn't start as a junior in high school and went on to play college baseball I can tell you there are thousands that did not. I think it sends the wrong message to players to pursue a dream when indeed that dream could turn out to be a nightmare. Are there exceptions? Of course there are just as there are to all journeys. Why I'm sure there are players that NEVER played high school baseball at all and went on to play college baseball. In my first post I said

quote:

I personally don't see a need to showcase (or pursue college baseball) if a player is not at least a starter on varsity as a junior in high school.

I guess I'm just looking through a different knothole in the fence.
Fungo

Fungo

I agree with you completely---yes there are exceptions and we have seen them because of the HS program strength, but in general if a player is not a varsity starter it is nearly impossible, note I said nearly, for him to be a player in college.

HS players are a select group and college players are an even more select group. There is no watering down at this level

quote:

Originally posted by Fungo:

quote:

I need to say that there are quite a few programs down here in florida where really good baseball players dont play on Varsity until they are a senior

Estone,
I don't disagree with what you say about good baseball players not playing until they are seniors at the better high school programs but are they talented enough to play college baseball? ---- I wonder where the vast majority of players like this will end up in college? If they don't play until they are seniors in high school at what year would you expect them to play in a tougher arena (college)? Year five? I always went on the assumption that college baseball was the "next level up" and not a "lesser level" than high school baseball. I always looked at the funnel from high school to college as becoming more restrictive instead of being an open door for non impact players in high school. Many posts we read on the HSBBW indicates that ALL college players were high school "stars". Is that "bad" information? For every player you can tell me that didn't start as a junior in high school and went on to play college baseball I can tell you there are thousands that did not. I think it sends the wrong message to players to pursue a dream when indeed that dream could turn out to be a nightmare. Are there exceptions? Of course there are just as there are to all journeys. Why I'm sure there are players that NEVER played high school baseball at all and went on to play college baseball. In my first post I said

quote:

I personally don't see a need to showcase (or pursue college baseball) if a player is not at least a starter on varsity as a junior in high school.

I guess I'm just looking through a different knothole in the fence.
Fungo

Generally, you are probably right...I may be too focused on the exceptions, but it does happen.

TW,
Great post.
An important point, all over the country there are different scenerios going on. I know here in Florida, abundant with top talent, over crowded schools, very very good players may not make varsity until seniors on the more competitive HS programs, where they most likely would be starters freshman or sophmore years at other programs. I have heard others say don't even showcase until you reach varsity level, I don't buy that. One purpose of the showcase is to compare yourself with your peers. College recruiters and scouts are much smarter than some may give them credit for. If they see a player that fits into their program, does the word JV or Varsity make a difference in their choice? I would imagine not, but I could be wrong. Also, have seen many HS stars make college teams and can't keep up with the game.
Mine went onto college with very few awards and major HS accomplishments. A few earned only his senior year in HS but was ranked a top player nationally. His resume was very boring. Didn't stop a recruiter from giving him an opportunity to play in a top program. Tough competition here prevents very good players from recognition of All Star, MVP's etc. where somewhere else they may have gotten every award in the state, yet our players who want to pursue the game after HS all find opportunities and very good ones at that and many get drafted out of HS.

Actually, was wondering what would be the average PG ranking? 7-8? Anyone know?

Didn’t want to get involved in this discussion, but seeing it didn't get overly controversial, couldn’t help it. Here are some of my thoughts on this subject… First of all, didn’t know anyone else used the 1-10 scale we use?

To a certain extent every post is correct.

Right or wrong… We never consider high school success or lack of success when grading players. Here are some interesting things we have discovered over the years.

We have had players grade 6 who have been all state in high school. We even had one player grade 6 who was recently named a preseason All American. More than one player who played in a preseason All American tournament was graded a 5.5 to 6.5 by us.

Lots of MVP, all state and all conference lists are based on production rather than ability and potential. Grading a player at a showcase is not based on high school production. So it is very possible that a player who lacks the necessary talent/tools to receive a high grade could hit .450 with a bunch of RBI with a metal bat in high school against poor competition and be a star for that high school team.

A player who grades 7 should have the ability to start at most high schools in the country as an underclassmen and they usually do. However if they are a freshman or sophomore at a real good program they probably don’t. It’s more about which high school and which part of the country than the actual grade of the player. The grade is always about potential and sometimes that potential is realized later than other times. Sometimes that potential is never realized.

Here is what I will say. Any player graded an 8 should be starting at his high school. However, there are a few high schools that would have a complete starting lineup of 8s and above. There have been high schools that have had 4 or 5 players graded 9 and above. In those cases a 7 junior will probably not be starting. At another school a 7 might be considered an All American. While all the 7s might be comparable in ability and potential… all the high schools are not even close to the same.

There are exceptions that stand out over the years. We’ve had a couple players graded 9 and above that did not start as high school players even as seniors (for one reason or another). I can think of two who didn’t play much in HS but were drafted by MLB clubs or ended up playing at DI colleges.

Last… More often than not the biggest disparity between the grade and high school success involves pitchers. There are lots of very successful HS pitchers receiving all kinds of honors yet we graded them a 6 or 6.5. We’ve probably all seen that type, he goes 9-0 but throws in the 70s without real good stuff. There’s also pitchers who throw upper 80s and project to throw better, but they have not mastered control yet, so the HS coach doesn’t want to risk using them a lot. This involves the age old argument between winning and developing talent. Often these pitchers blossom during the summer if they get with the right program. BTW, a 10 and a player we selected as an Aflac All American last year, pitched something like 20 innings in his entire junior year in HS. He wasn’t hurt and he throws mid 90s with three plus pitches.

Bottom line… Nearly every player graded 9 or above is a legitimate highest level DI prospect or draft prospect in ours or anyone elses opinion. Most all 8s and above have the same potential. 7s and above have the potential, but sometimes don’t ever realize that potential. Below 7 could be anyone from a future MLB player to a DIII player. We have so many examples that vary so greatly, that it makes it impossible to call.

Some complain that we never rank players below 5 or 6. This is not true, but in most cases we don’t have players who would grade below 5 attend our events. At the same time we usually see pretty much all the 10s in the country and most of the 9s and above. We do know there are certain high level colleges that have told us they make a list of all those that are a certain grade or higher and use that as a follow list, along with any other players they know of. I would guess those that do make out follow lists based on our grades adjust to fit their situation. Example… Highest level… maybe 9s and above, Upper level… maybe 8 and above, Mid level… maybe 7 and above, Low level… maybe 9 and below and so on. In any case, the grade represents our opinion and while we like to think we know what we’re doing, our opinion is not always shared by everyone.

In some ways we are very lucky to live where we do. I think it gives us a good perspective on lots of things. Iowa is perhaps the most average state in the country. Average in population, average area, average in just about every way. In our state depending on school size, a HS starting lineup or even a high school MVP could be anything from a 6 to a 10. The all state teams will generally have mostly 8s to 10s, but there will be some 6s make it based on having very good statistics. Anyway, a 7 will almost always be a starter as a junior in high school unless in the rare case there is a bunch of seniors who grade higher. Or there is a coach who doesn’t play or doesn’t know who his most talented players are for some reason. (that can and does happen, here and everywhere else)

Interesting topic, sorry for the long post.

Probably a bit foolish to try to add anything to what PG has written, but there are also players whose ratings improve over time. As PG has said in the past they can only grade based on what they see. One of the kids from our league got rated a 7.5 recently. I was there for the games, but not the workouts, and from what I saw they took into account his strengths and weaknesses and despite the fact he didn't hit that well in the games gave him the highest rating they reasonably could. JMO, but I believe that eventually this kid will showcase and just plain rake and he will be rated higher. Only time will tell on that one.

The other thing I'd add goes along with what TPM and TW were saying and that is if you are not on varsity and feel you have the talent to play at the next level - showcase! You'll either find out you were right and need to persevere or you'll get a good reality check that will help you either readjust your goals or your work habits.

This is a tough question I'm sure but-

So much emphasis is placed on velocity when you get a rating that I was curious to know how people like Glavine and Moyer would rate right now if you saw them at a showcase. Both throw low to mid 80's at best and are still pretty good. Rogers and Maddux pretty much cruise mid 80's, would they be rated fairly low because of that. Just curious.

The whole idea of basing a players potential on whether or not they are a starter as a junior or star in high school is flawed.

There are just way too many examples of kids not playing much as juniors and becoming highest level prospects as a late blooming senior.

Here’s one in our “average” non-baseball-hotbed state. My own son was not a starter as an underclassman in high school. He was pretty good as a senior. He was 6’6 with a whip for an arm, but only about 84 tops as a senior and received virtually no interest from any scholarship colleges. At age 22 he was pitching in the Major Leagues. We have seen this same thing happen many times with other kids, but due to what has happened over the past several years with travel ball and other events, it doesn’t happen as often as it did before.

An old example... When I was in high school, many moons ago, there was a 3 sport athlete (football, basketball, track) who tried out for our high school baseball team as a junior and was cut. He didn’t play in high school at all. He ended up playing in JC and then played about 5 years in the Pirates organization.

Sometimes it boggles our mind when we see a real good prospect and find out he didn’t play on the high school varsity last year. But it happens!

If the entire recruiting and scouting world based everything on what happens in high school baseball, then they would be saying the high school coach is the most important determining factor in evaluating players. We should all know that isn't the way it works.

There are many great high school coaches who deserve that respect, but ask any college coach or scout how much value they place on “most” player evaluations they receive from high school coaches.

We have seen (more than once) high school coaches who for one reason or another do not play there most talented player. And it is very common for a high school coach to sit the kid with the most potential (highest ceiling) in favor of the player who is most likely to win the game today. (not saying that is wrong, but we don't care who wins the high school games around the country)

I sometimes have a problem with basing things on the majority or what is most likely. The majority of players never play in college. The number of players who blossom in college is amazing. The number of present MLB players who weren’t the biggest star on their high school team, is astounding.

I will never allow what a player has accomplished by his junior year in high school to dictate the search.

(For Will) Ahead of time… This is not an attempt to downgrade high school coaches. There are some great ones and many good ones, but there are also many who just don’t get it. Surely the real good high school coaches are aware of this. If anyone disagrees, just go ask the nearest college coach or professional scout.

PG,
Great post and thanks for jumping into the discussion.

I get bashed for mentioning geography, but your post illustrates that this can play an important role in HS baseball and possibly the college recruiting process, even beyond, the draft.

quote:

So much emphasis is placed on velocity when you get a rating that I was curious to know how people like Glavine and Moyer would rate right now if you saw them at a showcase. Both throw low to mid 80's at best and are still pretty good. Rogers and Maddux pretty much cruise mid 80's, would they be rated fairly low because of that. Just curious.

Thats-a-balk,

Good question... But you need to remember that these guys didn't throw mid 80s in the beginning. In fact Maddux was closer to mid 90s as an amateur. It's easier to subtract velocity and add pitching ability than it is to add velocity while adding pitching ability. (if that makes any sense?)

Check out "Bum's" kid at this link...
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PG - good stuff. Someone else asked if the ratings are based on future ability alone. It seems to me the only way to project future ability is to see some present ability. Thus, it seems that it is a combination of factors. Like to hear your thoughts on that.

CD,

Present ability is what people see, including us. It is the easy part. If we were to give two grades (present and future) the present grade would always be the most accurate. My grandmother could tell me who the best players on the field are. (if she were still alive)

If we do start giving two grades (we are talking about it) people would see some wide variances between the two grades. Example: Some would be 8 present 8.5 future, while others might be 5 present 8.5 future. The way things are… Both would be graded 8.5, but one would be far better presently.

The two grade system would probably be more helpful to college coaches.

So to answer the question… Both present and future are considered heavily. Present ability is always taken into account (can’t be avoided, it’s the most obvious), but potential or projection is what we are trying to look for the most. It’s by far the hardest to determine and it has the most room for making an error. It’s also the most fun if you ask me. (I’m a Dreamer)

PG,
You mentioned that college coaches often will recruit by your rating. I can see that.

Do coaches ever call asking about players future potential. For example recruiter sees a player and you rate him maybe a 8, but the recruiter really thinks that he sees more future potential than you might see. Would he make a call to ask regarding your opinion?