Pre Season DI Collegiate rankings...

Must be bad eyes, or...
...bad KARMA...
but, O-44, you were the THIRD person to post this today as a new thread.

...OOPPSSS...

Sorry, didn't do my homework...Yep, very Bad Karma

Apologies... ...


44
.

where da Cajuns.........?

Meebee dey fogaw ta pay dey dues

The reigning national champs don't break the top 40?

Yes, they lost two of their three starters from last year, but OSU is going to be good again this year. This poll has them 6th in the PAC 10.

Rob,
This is what son said to me from the OSU players, they get no RESPECT!
Only fuels the team to work harder towards that goal!

.
Would agree...Rob and TPM...

The pollsters just lit a huge fire under the under appreciated national champions...What were they thinking!..East Coast Bias AND/OR because their teams don't have to play them?...

Bet this poll is already up on the OSU clubhouse wall...

44
.

Agree. OSU was dissed big time, and with no WC teams in the top 10 this is classic EC bias. Watch for at least 4 Pac10 schools plus CSF to be in the mix when it really matters.
I think ASU will be really tough this year, along with Stanford, OSU, and UCLA.

Yes it is one of the great things about college baseball - polls don't matter!

And, Observer, you are right on the money. I'll be in the OSU locker room in a couple days and I'll see it myself.

Hey Rob,

This is a serious question. Just curious in your thoughts.

I know OSU recruited well this year...out of state very well too. But is it sustainable there? Can they be top-20 year-in/year-out? Is there enough talent in Oregon to keep it going? Will kids from AZ/CA stay in the wet/damp weather for 3/4 years? Will the UW kids start flocking to Corvallis?

No agenda here...just interested in your thoughts.

I know the players told DK they lost a lot of key players and it would be somewhat of a rebuilding year for them.

Is collegiate baseball a coaches poll or staff scout poll? Is it based on SOS and RPI? What's the deal?

Regardless, surprised they didn't at least make the top 25, just for being the champions last year. Out of respect.

I can tell you from last year's experience that being ranked high puts a lot of expectations on a team from their fans that translates into stress! Sometimes it's a lot easier to work your way towards #1 than starting at it or close to it.

Was looking forward to a "fun" year.

Great question, JB -

I don't pretend to have the definitive answer. It would be great to think that there is enough baseball talent in the NW to fully staff a D1 contender year in and year out.

To be honest, I don't really think I know enough to be able to make a legitimate judgment about the question you ask.

Part of me wants to say "Heck, they won the national championship with mostly NW talent, and now they have an easier time attracting talent, so why wouldn't it be sustainable?"

But I'm a homer, and so I lack perspective. So my answer is that I really don't know.

Can they attact top level talent to Corvallis Oregon year in year out when the alternative in the PAC 10 is some team in sunny California or Arizona?

I just don't know. This year, sure. Their recruiting class was great (but several will go pro) and it is really great to have a top notch D1 program here in Oregon.

But is the model that Riley has created sustainable? Year in/year out contender?

I can't pretend to be able to give an informed opinion about it.

I see no reason at all why things won't continue at a very high level in Oregon. That coach has a national championship and he has shown he knows how to develop players so I think recruiting is only going to get better for them. They will have kids fighting to get into that program. The best teams win not necessarily the teams with the most highly ranked recruits - although that indeed is a factor.

I guarantee that list is a motivation tool for many. If you are on it, you are motivated to stay on it. If you are not, there is motivation to get on it. What I think the lists may not take fully into account are the personnel losses from the previous year. Some schools had 10 or more key players lost to graduation and/or the draft last year and I think those losses may be too much to overcome in one year.

The good news is that OSU was not in the Top 40 pre-season last year. Good Karma

Here are my thoughts...I think the key for OSU is the next 2 years. If they can stay a contender in the Pac-10 and at/near the top-25 nationally...then they will be "in." Kids from all over the NW including Washington will want to go there. And I DO think you can contend for the CWS with only kids from the NW.

But the next 2 years, IMO, sets the tone if they're there to stay or not.

quote:

And I DO think you can contend for the CWS with only kids from the NW.

Once winning the CWS, OSU will have more than the NW kid's
wanting to go there??
The NW has quite a trickle of good player's in the college rank's all over this country?

But Just not contending for the next few year's, Right JBB??
EH

jbb - my only disagreement with your above observation is why would they have anything left to prove over the next two years? They have already proven they can win the whole thing with less than ideal weather and what not. It seems to me that recruiting can only get better for them over the next two years and into the future. Merry Christmas BTW

If they cannot stick in/near the top-20 in the next couple of years, the excitement and draw for kids to OSU will dry up...I believe.

None of my thoughts accounts for Coach Casey who I don't know at all...he may be the best recruiter around for all I know.

But it seems to me that before the past few years, UW was the big dog on the block for the NW. They attracted nearly every good player from Washington. OSU's record in the Pac-10 was bad, very bad just a few years back. Somehow, 3-4 years ago, Coach Casey was able to get a few of those kids and keep nearly all of the best ones from OR at home. Kudos to him because he won them the big one! But...was it just a fortunate confluence of the right parts/players at one particular time? I don't know the answer to that?

But IMO, and its just an opinion and nothing more, the draw for recruits from the national championship season will begin to dry up if they fall back towards the middle/bottom of the Pac-10. You have to remember that in just 2 seasons they'll be recruiting kids that are now 14. 14-year olds in CA/AZ will barely remember this past year when they're being recruited. Its an important 2 years for them. Kids in my area don't dream of playing for OSU...even after last year. They dream of Stanford, USC, UCLA, Fullerton, ASU, Cal, etc... OSU never comes up in a conversation with them. Another year or two of top-20 teams and OSU will be in the conversation with California kids IMO.

I really don't know what they have coming back across the board, but I do know they lost a LOT...an awful lot from last year's team. I do think Mike Stutes is a solid Friday night guy, they've got a very solid SS and a closer who may be a first round pick.

.

I would tend to agree with JB...

While I don't undervalue "on the field" decisions and player development...at the collegiate level with the rosters so fluid...recruiting, and/or transfers are such a large part of any programs success.

A couple years of high profile success creates not only a self sustaining atmosphere within a program but a mystique within the larger baseball community that this is one of THE places to go.

In my mind this is likely not reached until you've been high profile for a few years. Like JB said until those 14 year olds can't wait to wear Black and Orange nearly as much as they do Cardinal and White.

At that point "player Attraction" becomes an entirely different, and self sustaining activity.

44
.

While this does not happen often, I tend toward a different view than justbb. I have so much respect his knowledge , I feel like I might be out on a limb with these views.
IMO, other than Stanford, Vanderbilt and a very few others, college baseball recruiting is regional. The fact that OSU does not have another DI program in Oregon helps them immensely to capture and keep home grown talent. I also believe the reason players in CA/AZ and other locations don't think of OSU first, is that Oregon St, generally, has not recruited CA much, except the Nothern Central Valley area. If they recruited more in CA, I tend to think they would be as successful as other programs.
What I think will be the challenge for OSU is whether, within the NW, OSU can continue to find and attract an adequate number of players of the type that made them so successful over the last 3-4 years. Speed, execution and aggressiveness, combined with high quality pitching, took them to the top. I believe more schools will be going into Oregon looking for and recruiting those players.
One thing in favor of OSU that I don't think is true at a school like Cal is the OSU coaches proven ability to develop players once they arrive. IMO, Cal gets better "talent" in the recruiting, but seemingly does less with it. That ability to develop players places less strain on attracting what are viewed as top recruits.

I agree with JBB that the next couple of years will be key if OSU is to establish itself as an acknowledged premier program.

The fact that it didn't break the top 40 in this polls shows that it's not yet considered premier. I'm guessing that Miami, Texas, Rice and USC, if they were coming off two straight league titles and a nat'l championship, would be ranked high the following pre-season no matter how many guys they lost to the draft and to graduation.

As for OSU, they are returning Stutes (the probable Friday starter), Mitch Canham (the catcher,) Darwin Barney (SS) and they have a transfer from LSU, Jason Ogata (whose parents have frequented this board in the past.)

My son is catching bullpen for Stutes over the holiday break, and he looks very good.

A couple other JC transfers look pretty good, too, from what I hear. Plus they have Blake Keitzman, whose parents post here under the name LHPitcher. Blake was Oregon's HS player of the year in 2006, but is recovering from ACL surgery.

Any event, I think OSU will be far better than this poll shows them. Their recruiting class of '07 looks fabulous - so good that two of them will probably go in the first round.

Pretty much all the best Oregon '07 talent signed OSU letters last month.

So, time will tell, but one thing for sure: it is a great thing to have a top notch D1 baseball program in Oregon.

First things first (should have said this earlier). I think its nuts that OSU is not in the pre-season top-25. Its hard for me to remember a defending national champion in football or basketball not being in a pre-season top-25. A lingering lack of respect? If I were an OSU player, I'd say so and I'd be workin' a bit harder right now. Too bad for the rest of the Pac-10. I'd have rather seen them ranked #1.

In any case, despite infielddad's very valid points (fitting your style of play to your personnel is a GREAT point...and boy did OSU play the game aggressively!), I still think to stay where they are, they will need to either a) sign nearly every top player from the NW for years to come or b) venture down into CA/AZ for 2-3 players per year. (a) is very possible right now, even probable I would say...but it will vaporize over a few years if they don't stay in the top-25. UW is one of the most beautiful campuses around, with a lot more for college-aged kids to do in the surrounding area, and it will remain hard to pull kids out of Seattle and the state of Washington.

(b) is trickier. I cannot name one Northern California kid in the past 3 years who was even semi-seriously recruited by OSU? (Not that I know them all...ncball/calbb may correct me on this ). I also cannot name one kid around here who would have had them higher than #7 his recruit list (I believe all of the local kids would have listed the CA and AZ schools before any OR or WA schools within the Pac-10).

But I would guess in the 07/08 classes that if OSU contacted a kid from the Bay Area, they would be pretty interested. A fair number of kids from here do go to OSU and UofO for football...so I could see it happening. But again, I think for it to stick, they will need to maintain their high performance for another couple of years...and then if they do, I believe it will go on automatic (2-3 recruits a year), much like ASU in our area.

Anyways, I'm beating this to death. I AM a Pac-10 fan...after a Stanford fan. And so its been really great to see them rise to their current level (minus 3 games a year ). They come down here this year for the series. It should be fun to see how they're doing. I enjoy discussing these types of things.

GO BEAVS!

justbaseball:

Check out the OSU web site.

2 of the top recruits in the nation were signed by the Beavs...1 from Rocklin CA and 1 from AZ!!!!...not to mention....1 from Massachusetts!

quote:

by soxnole: 2 of the top recruits in the nation were signed by the Beavs...1 from Rocklin CA and 1 from AZ!!!!...not to mention....1 from Massachusetts!

umm that's 3
also add guys w/jr national team experience

which brings me to my point(s) ...

1) dealing with that kind of success can be a very steep learning curve for coaches, mis-steps can be devastating

2) a team that heavily relys on a regional roster will NOT LIKELY be able to sustain national excellence. just as the (nationwide) draft has up & down yrs, more exagerated are yearly talent variations in cool weather regions.

3) will signing 3 top recruits be a plus or a disaster?
does OSU have any history of getting top draft picks to campus/class? no, & only a few others do
do the out of state (sunshine & e coast) guys REALLY want to attend college waaay up in Oregon ... OR just want to "sign" w/#1 & USE OSU positioning for their draft?

consider the effect on that recruiting class if 3 guys (as early picks) sign pro ...
other picks in that class see their recruiting class crumbling (w/ eventual team success) & suddenly view their pro path waaaay more favorably ... class can crumble
few (none) similar players are available in June to fill
it can affect recruiting and team success for future yrs.
coaches turn to jc guys to fill holes, this turns off top area hs players who will now have to wait 2 yrs behind a jc guy for their chance at pt



jmo

The warnings issued in this thread re:OSU are making me scratch my head. They WON the National Championship last year for crying out loud and that was before they had a reputation to uphold. All the negatives that are being brought up now about them re: sustaining things were even bigger negatives before they won the whole thing imho.

OSU's coach has proven he can win with the hand he has been dealt. Maybe he is the best recognizer of diamonds in the rough in the whole nation? Just maybe he is better than some other PAC 10 coaches or ACC coaches at developing those diamonds? Just maybe he does not need a nationally ranked recruiting class to win? Who knows

Of course it's hard to remain on top in college baseball. It just seems like the road may have gotten a little easier for OSU now that they have won big. I am sure I am probably missing something here

warnings? nada
just observations based on past experience of some sunshine teams who where able to overload recruiting classes with top recruits & then left scrambling when their recruits never got to campus

stop that scratching, just makes it shiney

quote:

by cd: sustaining things were even bigger negatives before they won the whole thing imho

before '05 what was there to sustain? a mid or lower level pac-10 finish?

Like to jump in with my opinion, for what it is worth.

From my observation, the team with the most experience, not necessarily the best team, wins championships in Omaha. This is not a dig on any team, but this is just the way I see it and saw it. I think the pre season rankings always reflect this along with SOS and RPI.
Teams with experienced coaching staff, experienced players that have participated in regionals and super regionals, national championship games, know what needs to be done to get the job done. I have posted before, OSU held a big advantage over other teams in Omaha, they were there the year before, with most returning players from the year before. That makes a HUGE difference. I do not know if Bee would agree with that point or not.

Signing top recruits is not the answer, those recruits that show up in the fall is the key. The spring success of any team also holdsth key for those recruits to show up, if a team does extrememly well, most likely they will show up even if drafted, if team does not do well, they may opt for pro ball. While signing key players is kudos for the coach, keeping them from the draft is another story. That is a job unto itself.

In other words, Bee> has given good points to ponder, and CD has also made some valid points, but I still wonder myself why the championship team was not given any respect for slot in the top 25 from collegiate baseball.

quote:

2 of the top recruits in the nation were signed by the Beavs...1 from Rocklin CA and 1 from AZ!!!!...not to mention....1 from Massachusetts!

Of course I knew that!

I happen to think Oregon is beautiful country. But it rains a lot there. A LOT! Its also chilly. And while Corvallis is a nice town off the beaten path...its not exactly a hoppin' town.

Will CA/AZ kids really like it when they're there in the rain for 3 months? For a whole school year? For a kid from Cleveland or Chicago ro Massachusetts, it may be no big deal? Maybe even "good" from their point of view...get out West, by the ocean, etc... But from kids around here who go to UofO and OSU I hear all the time that they were not ready for the rain. For that matter, a UW student was at our house last night...a junior...and she couldn't stop talking about the miserable rain. All the time. (And I happen to think UW is one of the prettiest campuses I've been around).

Point is, kids from our way aren't used to that. It works for football...but ?maybe? not for baseball for kids not used to it. CA/AZ kids like the sunshine. I believe it would be (and has been) easier for Miami, UNC, GT, Clemson, FSU, Florida, etc... to recruit a kid from here than it would be for OSU/UW/WSU. In other words, I don't think OSU would even be right behind the 6 southern Pac-10 schools on lists for most players around here...I believe they'd be below #10.

No, thats not a slam on OSU. I'm just telling you how the average kid around here thinks about this.

If they continue their success for another year or two, they will be "in" as a desired college baseball destination for even CA/AZ kids because everyone loves a winner. But as evidenced by this poll (which I disagree with), they haven't reached that respected/guaranteed "winner" status yet. Thats just my opinion, based on a little knowledge of my area, nothing more.

BA shows OSU some love tabbing them at #16 pre-season -
quite a departure from the Collegiate Baseball list .. hmm, maybe BA frequents this site and listens in on our discussions ...

if so, also suggest a look at that content vs advertising ratio

Anyway you cut it OSC got the shaft if it means anything to be ranked by not being ranked. They have some very good players returning and signed a very good class. UNC is highly ranked after their top two and dominate pitchers in Miller and Bard left for the draft. OSU deserved to get some respect and be ranked in the polls this year. It makes me think that the powers to be believe it was a fluke. I do not believe that for one minute. They are an outstanding squad that I believe will be a top team again this year. I do believe that UNC will be very good again this year. They have everyone of their posistion players back and some outstanding arms to replace those that left. But you can not rank UNC high without ranking OSU high. OSU won the national championship last year. They did not loose a whole lot off of that team compared to the other top tier programs. If I played or coached at OSU I would let this be a motivating factor going into the season. I for one hope they have another outstanding season. I just hope if they play UNC again we come out on top.

quote:

by Coach May: They have some very good players returning and signed a very good class.

other programs have good players returnig as well, & their signing class can't help til they get to campus ... BA's #16 sounds fair to me & it's at least 33 slots higher than the CB ranking

it'll be interesting down the road to see who had a good read on things

quote:

it'll be interesting down the road to see who had a good read on things

The cool thing about college baseball and basketball i.e., March Madness is that they are show me sports. Teams basically get to do their talking on the field as oppossed to computers and politics deciding things. Too bad football isn't the same way.

Here is PG Crosscheckers list.

PG Crosschecker Top 100 D1

quote:

Teams basically get to do their talking on the field as oppossed to computers and politics deciding things.

CD - I know of a number of schools on the left coast that do think that politics play a role come selection day.

Given that 16 of the top 20 SOS (Boyds World) in 2006 resided on the left coast (or AZ), its hard to figure how there's such a disparity in selection of the West versus the SE for example. Is it just the very best teams are beating each other up out here?

Boyds World 2006 Strength of Schedule

No cut intended at anyone else, just a thorn in our side out here.

quote:

CD - I know of a number of schools on the left coast that do think that politics play a role come selection day.

Good points justbb.. I did use the word "basically" to modify what I said because there will always be inequities when a selection process is involved. On the other hand, most team's DO control their own destiny. Most conference champions automatically get in. If that is not an option, win the majority of your games with a strong schedule and that will very likely get you in. I don't have any answers about who beats who up. Win and you will likely get in. Some may have to win more than others to get in but again there seems to be some politics involved in every type of selection process.

quote:

Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
...there seems to be some politics involved in every type of selection process.

That's right CD...just ask the Republicans what happened last November! Ouch! It hurts. I know because I am one!

JB,
I think politics has lots to do with it, along with facilities and fan support ($$$ at the gate).

[QUOTE]Originally posted by justbaseball:
CD - I know of a number of schools on the left coast that do think that politics play a role come selection day.

Given that 16 of the top 20 SOS (Boyds World) in 2006 resided on the left coast (or AZ), its hard to figure how there's such a disparity in selection of the West versus the SE for example. Is it just the very best teams are beating each other up out here?
QUOTE]

Of course only 1 of top 10 schools were left coast in RPI (Boyds World).

Thank God they get to do it on the field unlike Football. Prior to the bowl games didn't the Sagarin rankings have something ridiculous like the PAC 10 filling up most of the top 10 SOS rankings...anyway back to baseball