Preliminary SEC 2021 Team Roster Turnover Insights

Missouri, 55.

@TPM posted:

Missouri, 55.

It stuck out like a sore thumb for me also, which is why I thought this post might be interesting.

Are those transfer out numbers based on guys who left after last season or after this Fall, or both?  I know one school on your list that is listed as 1 transfer out has had at least 6 

@d-mac posted:

Are those transfer out numbers based on guys who left after last season or after this Fall, or both?  I know one school on your list that is listed as 1 transfer out has had at least 6

Last season.  Note, insights are based on spring varsity rosters.

As stated in my original post:

*** Note, currently most players will be listed as unknown, this will change when other schools are published and player data is reconciled.

I love data!  Really very interesting; what stood out to me was the difference in number of freshmen on the 2020 roster who had left the program by 2021.  Some had none, some had a high number.

Of course, what this data can't catch is the number of freshmen on the fall roster who don't make the spring roster (i.e. redshirted, run off, walk-ons, etc.).  That would also be of interest to a high-school player.

@anotherparent posted:

I love data!  Really very interesting; what stood out to me was the difference in number of freshmen on the 2020 roster who had left the program by 2021.  Some had none, some had a high number.

Of course, what this data can't catch is the number of freshmen on the fall roster who don't make the spring roster (i.e. redshirted, run off, walk-ons, etc.).  That would also be of interest to a high-school player.

In my humble opinion,  fall roster is not important, as for it is not official.  No different than trying out for a travel team.  The program will always bring in more players, it is good for the school's revenue.

Fall roster is similar to the MLB spring training roster.

I would instead look at the official spring roster

Below is the No. of incoming players

Total Incoming

Total Transfers

Incoming by Position

Remember, the coach recruits based on need and number of available seats.

The student should look at the Roster Turnover over a 2 to 3 year period to understand the roster management of the school

I disagree.  Fall roster size can be very significant.   If a thousand show up and 37 are kept, a player might not want to try his luck at that school.  Lots of puzzle pieces to consider.  A player needs to go where his contribution is valued.  If he is one of many interchangeable cogs, things might not work out good. IMHO

@bandera posted:

I disagree.  Fall roster size can be very significant.   If a thousand show up and 37 are kept, a player might not want to try his luck at that school.  Lots of puzzle pieces to consider.  A player needs to go where his contribution is valued.  If he is one of many interchangeable cogs, things might not work out good. IMHO

Again,  fall roster is similar to a travel team tryout.  The coach does not have have to commit until the beginning of the spring.  The coach understands he leasing with the option to buy. He already has your tuition $$$ for at least one semester, maybe 2.

He knows there will be players from other colleges that might be interested in transferring (4 yr schools and JUCO) prior to the spring season.

IMHO Fall season is cattle herding.

Note, due to the additional year provided by college baseball, the fall roster will be even more vague.

I would focus on what is normally the incoming roster turnover.

Well, I agree from Bandera.  From the coach's perspective, it may be what CBI says, but not from the player's perspective.  At a travel-team tryout, if you aren't picked for the team, you can go try out for another team.  In college fall ball, you have enrolled and are taking classes at the school, and you cannot just switch schools easily, even at the semester, if you don't make the team.

As many threads on here have shown, plenty of high-school students commit to being a walk-on (i.e. non-scholarship, for whatever reason), and are then cut.  I think there is a lot of misunderstanding among HS players about how this works and what it means - I've seen it with kids that I know.

I'm not saying that this data is easy to put together - and especially not that CBI, with the way you collect data, can provide it.  But, looking at PG to see how many kids commit in a given year, and then whether or not they make a spring roster, is something that can be useful.

@anotherparent posted:

Well, I agree from Bandera.  From the coach's perspective, it may be what CBI says, but not from the player's perspective.  At a travel-team tryout, if you aren't picked for the team, you can go try out for another team.  In college fall ball, you have enrolled and are taking classes at the school, and you cannot just switch schools easily, even at the semester, if you don't make the team.

As many threads on here have shown, plenty of high-school students commit to being a walk-on (i.e. non-scholarship, for whatever reason), and are then cut.  I think there is a lot of misunderstanding among HS players about how this works and what it means - I've seen it with kids that I know.

I'm not saying that this data is easy to put together - and especially not that CBI, with the way you collect data, can provide it.  But, looking at PG to see how many kids commit in a given year, and then whether or not they make a spring roster, is something that can be useful.

A little background, between 2010 and 2012, my son played for one of the top travel programs in NJ.

The travel program had 2 seasons (Spring/summer and fall). Each season had its own cost.

There were tryout for both seasons.

Making the spring/summer team didn't guarantee playing on the same fall team.

From 2013 thru 2014, I went through the recruiting process, son received a athletic scholarship, thus he was locked in.

Note, the coach's goal is to bring in as many potential student athletes that are needed in order to meet the schools revenue objectives and his specific objectives.

A player and family will never know his objective.

Note, the coach was playing a game of rent with the option of buying.

Note, PG ranking system is questionable at best. PG is not the single source a commit data.

Secondly,  PG has a disclaimer about its accuracy.

You would need to include other website, e.g. fieldlevel, PBR, etc.

Note, this unstructured data lacks data quality controls.

Note, a friend of my son walkon to Marshall in 2015.  The fall roster didn't  provide indication of the coach's roster management strategy.

The coach waited until the very end to inform him that he would be redshirted.

Fortunately, his father had a relationship with a D1 Juco program (older son had graduated 2 years earlier), and he transferred their for the spring.

Also, you will need to remember the coach has an open window to get players that want to transfer after the fall season.

IMHO, the families are spending significant amount of time looking at the fall roster due to the $$$ commitment.

Note, I'm simplifying the process.

Larger incoming fall is meaningful data.  Even if it lacking QC.   Certainly for deciding between otherwise equal schools.  It is just another piece of the puzzle in making a decision.

But if I'm the only LHP among 20 RHPs showing up, it doesn't matter if it's the spring or fall roster.  I like my chances. How you use the data depends on your circumstances.

Going forward Spring rosters are corrupted because there is no consistent way of listing class due to COVID.   Doesn't mean we should stop looking at spring rosters.  We take the best data we can get and use it for guidance.

@bandera posted:

Larger incoming fall is meaningful data.  Even if it lacking QC.   Certainly for deciding between otherwise equal schools.  It is just another piece of the puzzle in making a decision.

But if I'm the only LHP among 20 RHPs showing up, it doesn't matter if it's the spring or fall roster.  I like my chances. How you use the data depends on your circumstances.

Going forward Spring rosters are corrupted because there is no consistent way of listing class due to COVID.   Doesn't mean we should stop looking at spring rosters.  We take the best data we can get and use it for guidance.

The LHP vs RHP example is the roster unicorn.

Question, when are the fall roster normally published, before or after the start of the fall semester?

As for spring rosters and graduation classification due to covid-19  

If you are a High School graduate looking to figure out how many true freshman vs "high school freshman",

then the our Player Attrition Insights provide the insights.

E.g.  Kentucky 2021

Players from 2020 roster that are not on 2021 roster, with the potential roster why they are not on roster by graduation class.

Players not on the roster by position and graduation class

From the incoming perspective,  the following identifies 17 new players, of which 7 are transfer in.  Currently, The freshman are not displayed as transfers, note this might change once we've published and reconciled.

As for the Superclasses, all things being equal, it is about performance.