Recruiting Assessment - Odds of This Player & Where

Wow, with those numbers, you could be speaking of my son, though he is 18, in the 1.9s for POP, a little taller (6'0-6'1) and few pounds heavier (194).  He leaves next week to start his freshman year in the NAIA. He didn't commit until April of his senior year.

Like others have said before, he should feel like its a good fit. He shouldn't commit just to commit. The recruiting trip is unique to each individual, so there shouldn't be a rush to commit. Try to enjoy the ride, though it can be nerve wracking at times.  

Thanks for the background.   Think like a college coach.... 1) what does the player do really well that stands out against others defensively and offensively?  In my experience college coaches focus on plus tools that a recruit has and tools that can be quickly developed.   2) what problem does the player solve?  Is the coach looking for an offensive minded catcher who's defensive skills can be polished?   3) In this time of Covid, who is advocating for your son to college coaches....travel coach, high school coach?   

Other thoughts...I don't think you are going to find too many 5'9" catchers with 7.21 speed in D1 baseball.  Frankly, I think if he is a leader, who can hit ( I mean really freaking hit), and can increase pop time to consistent sub 2.0 then might get some legitimate looks across college baseball.   He will have to overcome his frame.   My son had the same issue as a 6'1" RHP.   Yes, he could get over 90mph when he wanted to, and had 3 pitches as a recruit but the bottom line was that he was not tall.   When we first started recruiting this "frame" thing or "projectability" pissed him off.   But it is real.   Embrace it and find the right place for him

Good luck!

Just based on those numbers, he fits into the massive pool of players who are good but don't stand out enough to draw a lot of serious attention from higher levels or better programs.  You don't elaborate much on the hit tool.  How well he hits college level pitching will be a very significant determinant.  Also, you seem to emphasize the intangibles.  Those things help a player once he is on the field but often don't do a whole lot to catch the eye of an RC at a typical recruiting event.  Most players on the field have pretty good intangibles.  Aside from that, those numbers don't fit the profile for D1.  But you say he is talking to schools across levels.  So that would indicate that he is at least working a recruiting plan.  We can guess based on the limited information in front of us but there are still far too many variables.  

Where (and if) he lands will also depend on his continued growth and development, his willingness to play at lower levels, the family's ability to pay for college, what his college major will be and how that fits with baseball, whether he maintains passion to play at the next level even if it is at lower levels, how well he continues to work a recruiting plan, etc., etc.  

Here's another thing about the odds of him playing... many here say that if a player wants to play in college, there will be a place for him.  While this is hypothetically true, it is not practically true.  There are too many opposing diametrics in place.  If he targeted the worst program at the lowest level of play, his odds increase greatly.  But how many players who are capable of playing college baseball want to or are willing to play at the lowest level?  Most are very competitive and want to play at the highest level they can.

You continue to seek definitive answers to these things.  I get it - my brain works similarly.  But the recruiting process is far from an exact science.  Especially for players with skill sets that don't particularly stand out from the very large pool of aspiring players.

Also, I forget where you are located but you don't mention NAIA.  Considering the skill set and the fact that he isn't a HA (makes a lot of D3s a reach), you may want to include that pool of colleges for consideration.  FL-KYbaseballdad says his son's numbers are same.  I don't have to tell you that there is a big difference in that he is 6' so doesn't have to fight the "small player" battle, yet he chose NAIA as a fit. 

Good luck to him and keep us posted.

What are you calling an average student?  The average high school graduating gpa is 3.0? What is his unweighted gpa? 

Preferred mid major D1 pop time is consistently below 2.0. D2 is 2.0/2.1. D3 is consistently 2.1 or better.

But, is the goal to warm up pitchers between innings and be the backup, or play? How is his hitting? Does he consistency drive the ball? What level of travel pitching is he consistently facing?

There’s crossover in college classification. If MAAC teams (D1) played a series of games against the Sunshine State Conference teams (D2) I believe it would be very one sided in favor of the Sunshine State Conference. I know a kid playing, err sitting in the MAAC I saw him as a quality D3 prospect in high school. But he’s on the team. I was shocked he walked on and made it. He was the first infielder off the bench freshman year and got about 60 AB’s. He Mendoza’ed. Soph year he was further down the depth chart.

Keep an eye on school’s commit lists. If your son receives an offer how many catchers were offered before him. 

By what point in time - given the current situation in college baseball - should this player be verbally committed?

When he gets the right offer.

Note to readers: I referred the MAAC since it’s in his area.

Thanks to all for the feedback so far. It's appreciated. I will try and answer the questions. Some immediate information:

He's 5-9 but we're hoping he's not done growing. He just finished sophomore year and still really doesn't shave yet except for a few stray hairs on his chin. So, he's not done with puberty yet. He was late to grow in the 8th grade also. So, maybe he can grow another 2 inches junior year? We see some kids sprout that year.

As far as hitting, he's extremely patient and has a lot of power. He's not the kid who routinely goes 10 for 15 in a 5 game tournament with 6 doubles. More likely, if he gets 15 PA in a tournament then he's walking 6 times, striking out 4 times and hitting a home run, a double and a single. In games, his homers usually are around 340 to 370 feet. He's reached 400 feet in BP only.

If you want to see the power, send me a PM and I can send you a link of his latest HR hit this week.

Profile seems very similar to my son's HS teammate (2020).  All County as a junior...Kid got some interest from New England HA D3s, but wasn't an academic fit.  Is going to a D2 in the northeast where he figures to challenge for playing time right away.

As far as the student side, his GPA is a 3.5 out of 4. He does well in the classes that he's taking. But, there's no honors level courses, AP courses, or things like that in his future. He's a bright kid but falls into the standard/average coursework. I have a high academic kid and I see that in action. He's not at the academic level of his sibling. He's yet to take the PSAT or SAT. But, I don't think he's score there is going to be high enough to help on the recruiting side.

As far as targets, he knows he's not P5 or upper level D1. He would love to go mid-major D1. But he knows that might be a challenge because we don't really have that in our state. Most of our D1s are more towards the bottom of the RPI rankings, etc. (Not all but most.)

Basically, he wants to keep playing after HS and be part of a good baseball program at a school where he feels comfortable and has his area of interest as a major. He's not ruling out any level.  He loves to train - so, that's part of it too. He wants to be at a school with an upper level training facility to lift, etc.  He's the kid who would train 4 hours a day, everyday, if he had the access.

As far as in state and out of state, that's mostly me talking. He would love to go play in the southeast. But, I know - and have shared with him- that most schools roster kids from in state because that's who can afford to go there. Scholarships are not favorable for baseball players. Too many kids and not enough scholarships.

Don’t get scared off by the sticker price of college. To start find out the average  financial aid of colleges of interest.

As for the 6 walks in 15 sample AB’s ... Start hacking away at showcases and exposure tournaments. He can’t walk his way to the next level. I’m guessing if a 15 AB sample is 3-9 with 6 walks and 4 K’s he’s taking too many pitches. My son was a very patient lead off or two hitter until 17u (post soph summer) and junior year of high school. His coaches started harassing him to be aggressive and drive the ball rather than work pitchers. 

It’s good he’s drawn some D1 attention. But you have to discern if they’re tiring kicking him as C list insurance or are they serious. As a soph last year they’re probably interested enough to see how he progresses into next year. 

Did he start HS Varsity as a Sophomore, albeit in an abbreviated season?   If not, what level of college is the starter looking at?

It'd be easier to tell if there is a oe video of him hitting and throwing  

I think it all starts with what you and your son find most important.  From reading everything you wrote above it sounds like playing ball at a Mid-Major D1 is the stretch goal.  List the school out, identify the schools you would most want your son to attend educationally or baseball wise and start reaching out with emails and videos.  You have time and D3's are not looking for 2022 for another 11 months plus so you don't have to think about that quite yet.    You / your son will be your own best advocate unless he's on a travel program with a great track record of placing kids and a head of the program with an extensive Rolodex.   I say go for what you want now and then adjust strategy as details emerge or don't emerge.   The time is now.

@LeftyDadP9 posted:

Did he start HS Varsity as a Sophomore, albeit in an abbreviated season?   If not, what level of college is the starter looking at?

He was actually the starter on varsity last year as a freshman and led the team in HR and On-Base. Very big accomplishment but also partly related to the school situation. He may or not have made varsity with a powerhouse HS program as a freshman.

@RJM posted:

Don’t get scared off by the sticker price of college. To start find out the average  financial aid of colleges of interest.

As for the 6 walks in 15 sample AB’s ... Start hacking away at showcases and exposure tournaments. He can’t walk his way to the next level. I’m guessing if a 15 AB sample is 3-9 with 6 walks and 4 K’s he’s taking too many pitches. My son was a very patient lead off or two hitter until 17u (post soph summer) and junior year of high school. His coaches started harassing him to be aggressive and drive the ball rather than work pitchers. 

It’s good he’s drawn some D1 attention. But you have to discern if they’re tiring kicking him as C list insurance or are they serious. As a soph last year they’re probably interested enough to see how he progresses into next year. 

I've talked to him about expanding the zone. But he's very locked in with it. He will go deep on counts all the time. He's frequently hitting 3-2. At the end of the day, he's the player and has to make his own decisions. Personally, I hate 2 strike situations. I think that is a terrible place to hit from...but he doesn't mind it. The homer that he hit 2 games ago was on a 3-2 pitch.

@edcoach posted:

It'd be easier to tell if there is a oe video of him hitting and throwing  

send me a PM and I will share video 

LOTS of great advice is just about every post in this thread.  Reread it all and then reread it again.  If you can, get your son to read it as well.  Will likely mean a lot more to him reading it than you summarizing it for him.

I think VERY few kids are presented with a neatly laid out buffet of offers (or anything close to that), but I often think that's how many kids think it will be.  "Here is are all my offers.  Now I just need to pick the best one."  It doesn't work that way.  Especially in the Covid era, when the offers come and when they need to be accepted/declined by will largely determine which offer is "best."  I am not a paranoid person nor do I think the sky is falling, but there are a BUNCH of things happening right now* that support the notion that recruiting won't be anywhere close to "normal" for 2022s.  My son is a 2021 and recently jumped on a good JUCO offer even though D1 is the goal.  I am stupid grateful he committed and where he landed.  I think there are a TON of uncommitted 2021s who are about be gobsmacked in the next 2-3 months.  If my son were a 2022, I'd conduct my recruiting efforts right now under the premise that high school baseball won't be played in the spring.  If it does, great.  But plan as though it won't right now.  My advice to uncommitted 2021s is to accept NOW/yesterday.  For 2022s, mark a date by which you think you want to be committed by and then commit 2-4 months BEFORE that date if you can.  Is that paranoid?  Silly?  Possibly.  But if the goal truly is to play college ball, I think it's smarter than waiting and gambling.

* - even if college football happens this fall and/or spring, it is not going to generate anywhere near the revenue it needs to help support baseball programs in a normal fashion.  UConn just axed their football season.  The NFL is being eroded more each day due to opt outs.  MLB is hanging on a by a thread as well as other sports.  The number of Covid seniors coming back to play college baseball is far larger than seemed logical.  If college baseball is messed with/truncated next spring at all, the NCAA is likely going to grant another year of eligibility to everyone.  I just don't see anything other than "hope" right now that argues things will be back to normal anytime soon.  Not even close to normal.  "Settling" might not look anything like settling in just a few months.  Just my 2 cents. 

Danj - I agree that 2021, 2022 and 2023 are going to be different than the recruiting experience in the past. Between the NCAA giving kids another year, baseball cutting the draft and the recruiting scene shifting to video, streaming and referrals, kids better be ready to move sooner and quicker than in the past and be open to all options.

I believe getting to D1 ball is going to be harder than ever the next couple of years. Unless a kid has pro prospects find a place to get a good education and have a quality baseball experience.

After four years of college baseball/softball when asked about my kids it’s about their life, not baseball. Set yourself up for a good life with a good education. Enjoy playing ball. If some one asks if they played I respond, yes. I don’t mention level (D1) unless asked. They played ball.

Always be looking forward. No one should want their high school/college sports to be their peak in life. It’s not until you’re fifty you look in the mirror and think, “This is who I am.”