I'll talk a little about some of the teams in the area, in no particular order (with the caveat that I'm very hazy on happenings south of the river):
Manchester- loses Hauser, but they still have a lot of talent, and I would expect them to be very good, especially if they can replace Hauser's innings
Cosby- I think they were young last year, especially their pitching. I could be wrong, but they are too well coached to not be pretty darn good
Thomas Dale- will be very tough to beat, especially when Cullen is pitching...they would probably be in my top 3 heading into the season
Matoaca- I saw them play Hanover (I think) and I was very impressed, especially once I found out how young they were. Kilbourne was very good, and I would expect them to be a high quality team this season.
I'll stop there on Dominion and Central district teams, because I don't know much about the rest.
In the Colonial, it'll be the usual suspects:
Godwin- another one of my preseason top 3, with I believe three D1 commits already (Payne, Brown, and Blankenship I think), plus Lees, who's been very good.
Deep Run- I'm not sure what they have coming back, but I'll just assume they're loaded as usual. They do have a new coach, for better or worse, but they'll always have talent.
Freeman- I would expect a step back here, without the big arm of Scoggins to lead them in their toughest games. I could be wrong of course, but it will depend on who steps up on the hill. Another new coach here though, after only one season with Montague.
Hermitage- probably my darkhorse for a team that could really surprise. They picked up some big wins last season with a frosh on the mound (Burnett), and they have some other solid players as well. I haven't seen McLeod pitch recently, but I was impressed by him when he was younger (middle school)...I'm not sure if he's still trying to put it all together or what, but I think he could be another good arm for them.
Patrick Henry- probably another team due for a step back after losing Stanley, Seay, and at least one other very good senior whose name I'm blanking on.
Other Colonial teams- no clue
In the Capital:
Hanover- on the one hand, you have to imagine them not being as good, with the graduation of ten seniors, including several top performers among them. But, like Deep Run, they're always talented and well coached, and they still have Eric Mayers, along with many very solid players who would get more recognition if not for the ten seniors last year. They will still be right there.
Lee-Davis- probably the favorite in the district, with Connerley and Boze leading the way. They are always well coached and very hard nosed, and they would have the potential to be preseason top 3 for me.
Atlee- lost three times to L-D last season by one run, but lost two D1 pitchers (Farrar and Sandefur). They have another D1 commit leading the way this season in Austin Young, and they could challenge for the district lead if they have another arm step up and if the bats come around.
Henrico- they probably have been looking at this year as a potential good year for a while, with their three best players (Prentiss, Bateera, Mansfield) from last season all being juniors. They will have depth on the mound in those three guys, and they will also lead the way offensively. They also have some nice complimentary players otherwise.
This season could be the best Capital district race in a while, since you could probably make an argument for any of these four teams being right there at the top.
If you forced me to pick four teams to get to RF&P, I would take- Dale, Godwin, L-D, and I'll take Manchester (close over Matoaca and Deep Run). There's my very uneducated opinion.