Startling failure rate of boys at next level.

At whatever level a kid shows up for college ball relative to that level there are 35+ players competing for about 20 playing time spots. Injuries and transfers cause fall out. Others get to college ball blind to the fact it’s a job and don’t want to put in the effort. Coaches are only so patient. For the first time the player is dealing with a legitimate boss. Coaching and winning is how the coach feeds his family and pays the mortgage. Playtime is over.

I have seen many, many players in our area that my son played with, or against, or a few years ahead of him that have dropped down to JUCO, transferred, got cut or quit baseball and college altogether.  Probably way more than 50% I would say.  My anecdotal observation is that too many kids in this baseball-first hotbed (Southern California) commit to the best baseball program that makes an offer, without regard to where they will fit talent-wise on the roster, how much they'll play, or even if they are good enough to make it past the fall.  It is so glorious to tweet out a commitment to UCLA, Arizona State, USC, Fullerton, etc.  It happens at lower levels too.  One exception are HA schools, which the kids seem to stick with and graduate from.

Not surprised at all - read this forum for more than a few months (before this year of course) and the reasons should be crystal clear. Beyond the injury factor, it's perhaps the first time some are judged for their real skill not the money parents are paying a program. Add to that distractions of college life - finally being free, no curfew, access to parties (the Sr/Jr players on the team), etc. and the degree of difficulty college education brings...   Making it all 4 (or 5) years is pretty special.

@Waffles&icecream posted:

Son was a 2018 HS grad. Went on to D3 school and will Co-Captain next yr. (jr. Yr). Since all boys have been home, he’s reconnected with his old buddies &  the stats of his 2018 class shocked me. From his team, 9 boys went on to play college baseball. 4 went D1 and 5 went D3. All 4 D1 players are completely done with baseball. ( 2 due to throwing injuries, 2 never saw field). Of the 5 D3 players, only my son & another boy are still playing. I couldn’t believe it. Anyone else hear of this craziness ? Hoping everyone is well

That's pretty good in my book.   Son graduated HS in 2012.   From his HS four went on to play at the next level.   One went pro and three played college - son went JuCo and then on to a D2.   The remaining two went D3.

The player that went pro was done after 5 years.  His 4th year he tested positive for a recreational substance (marijuana) and suspended 4 games.  His 5th year he tested positive and was suspended 50 games.   Was released after that.

Son played two years JuCo and then one year at a D2.   Grades slipped and scholarship not renewed so he was done.   Coach still wanted him, but could not offer a scholarship.

Of the two that went D3 only one (catcher) played all 4 years.    The other suffered injuries (pitcher) and only played two years as I recall.   Third year sat out with injuries and I don't think he ever saw the field his fourth year.

There are only so many guys who can hit 90 and good breaking balls. 

In hs you can produce good stats as long you can hit low 80s FBs and lay off breaking balls in the dirt but when pitchers can throw 90 and throw breaking balls for strikes it is a different game.

To me RJM is spot on. The reality that it’s a competition just to get playing time and you need to compete just to get on the field is a wake up call for many. So parents, while you may not like the coaches that give you open and honest feedback about your son or that they hold them accountable and don’t coddle them every day in practice and in games, what you are missing is the fact that very coach is preparing your kid for the next level and honestly for life. Every time you put your arm around them and say “it’s ok Johnny” when it’s really not  you are hurting them long term. Baseball is a cruel world the higher you go. As my college coach said “this game will break your heart sooner or later” . None of these numbers surprise me at all, looking back at the kids I’ve coached it’s easy to see why  certain ones made it and others didn’t. As a coach you can lead them to the water but.....

I think that I would change the opening words of this post from "Startling Failure Rate" to "Typical, Anticipated Attrition".  

@Dominik85 posted:

There are only so many guys who can hit 90 and good breaking balls. 

In hs you can produce good stats as long you can hit low 80s FBs and lay off breaking balls in the dirt but when pitchers can throw 90 and throw breaking balls for strikes it is a different game.

Truth.

I saw lots of HS pitchers dominant with 84 and a bender that could hit the zone about 1/2 the time.  I told my son when he was 11 he had passed the first cut because he could hit the fastball but the 2nd cut was coming when they would see breaking balls.  Most lineups had 2 -4 guys that could hit the breaking ball...at most.

Sure enough a ton of 12 year old grow early Babe Ruth types disappeared over the next 18 months when they got to the big field and froze on everything with a wiggle in it.

In HS a 90 MPH fastball blows away 75%+ of the hitters.  If there is a breaking ball that hits the zone only the very best teams will have more than 1 or 2 hitters that will not be overwhelmed especially if the pitcher has average or better command of his fastball.

My son is a 2019, I've been following a whole bunch of his friends as they started college baseball. The season was cut short, of course, but I'd say they were tracking to about what you have seen. 2/3 of the D1 commits with no playing time or not even on the spring roster, half of the D2 and D3 with 1 AB or 1 IP before things shut down. Every story is different, some health/injury issues, some over-recruiting issues, etc. With little summer ball, it's hard to know what will happen to these guys.

It was pointed out earlier that the HA programs typically do not have much turn over with their roster.  HA player usually prioritize their goals during recruitment.  My 2015 went with the idea of "would I stay at the school if baseball didn't work out?"  If players would take more of that approach perhaps there may be less transfers.  The only transfers I have seen or heard of at HA programs are the players  that couldn't manage the academics.

In addition to the high rate of players washing out the rate of kids transferring is also very sobering.  In our state about 50% of the all state team for each of the last four years transferred from their original school choice.  All of these guys were studs...most of them mentioned as draft prospects, some drafted, but they didn't stick.  

@Waffles&icecream posted:

Son was a 2018 HS grad. Went on to D3 school and will Co-Captain next yr. (jr. Yr). Since all boys have been home, he’s reconnected with his old buddies &  the stats of his 2018 class shocked me. From his team, 9 boys went on to play college baseball. 4 went D1 and 5 went D3. All 4 D1 players are completely done with baseball. ( 2 due to throwing injuries, 2 never saw field). Of the 5 D3 players, only my son & another boy are still playing. I couldn’t believe it. Anyone else hear of this craziness ? Hoping everyone is well

Not too shocking from my experiences.    It is really difficult to communicate the challenges of college baseball until you experience them yourself (then it is too late) or know somebody that has been through it.   I'll bet most of the  HSBBWeb old timers are not surprised at all. 

This is the kind of information and experiences that is shared among the HSBBWeb community both publically and privately.   Some people believe it and take it heart and others don't.  Guess what?  With Covid and everything else going on right now, it is going to get rough to play college baseball.   Some recruits have the advantage of having choices.   If I had choices I would think long and hard about each choice putting aside what the coaches say, and put more emphasis on what they have done both in the past and present.   Once presented with offers, the risk is all on the recruit.  Do your homework as best you can, and cross your fingers that it works out. 

@JABMK posted:

It was pointed out earlier that the HA programs typically do not have much turn over with their roster.  HA player usually prioritize their goals during recruitment.  My 2015 went with the idea of "would I stay at the school if baseball didn't work out?"  If players would take more of that approach perhaps there may be less transfers.  The only transfers I have seen or heard of at HA programs are the players  that couldn't manage the academics.

Then of course there are the transfers-in  that excelled at academics.

I have said many of time that a player may choose a school where he wants to go but will probably end up where they should of gone.  How....via transfer.

When the 2020 D1 season started I randomly selected ten competitive P5 teams and broke down their roster. Give or take a player one number to each side of my example the roster breakdown was 14 freshmen, 7 sophs, 7 juniors and 7 seniors. It fits with something I read about ten years ago. 50% of D1 recruits transfer and go on to play at a second program to get on field.

You need way more than just talent. You need the big stick, great 60 time, 90+ FB. Most of all you need to compete and deliver. Show up on time, work hard, be good student, teammate and citizen. Even with all those tools, you need some luck, but again, compete and deliver. Each year more studs show up and you need to repeat. As most here will tell you, getting the offer and the scholarship is just the beginning.

It doesn't matter what level, surviving 4 years of college baseball is very difficult. Those that do will be rewarded in life and the lessons learned will carry them in their careers. 

...@Picked Off AND you need to stay healthy and fit in with the culture of the team. It is a grind. When it all comes together it's amazing but it certainly isn't easy.

It doesn't matter what level, surviving 4 years of college baseball is very difficult. Those that do will be rewarded in life and the lessons learned will carry them in their careers. 

My daughter played four years of D1 softball and had a STEM major. After working for two years she went to a top law school. She said her time management skills and composure under pressure were superior to a lot of former Ivy undergrads. She said while others were freaked out at first year finals she just believed she would be fine. She became the editor of the law review. 

This level of composure has served her well in the courtroom.

This truthful thread brings to mind a vivid memory. One of my son's college classmates on the team was a down-home, plain-spoken kid from the eastern part of the state. One day at dinner about 2/3 of the way through their Freshman season, he turned to me at the table and said, "You know, Mr. Woodard, when I was in high school, I thought I was the ****. It didn't take me long after I got here to see that EVERYONE was the ****!"

P.S. Happy Father's Day to all the dads here!

...and, a special shout out to the moms/wives/daughters who make our lives wonderful and have to put up with us!  

My two guys' HS teammates have been a little more fortunate, but friends from other schools that they played travel ball with fit that 50% departure pattern.

2017's HS had 16 seniors. Six stopped playing after grad.  1 went D1, 2 went JUCO, and 7 went D3.  They're all still playing, most of them starting.

2019's class only had six seniors.  Two quit after HS. One didn't play much at a mid-major but will stay. One was the #8 pitcher or so on his mid-major. He'll stay, too.  Two are at HA D3's. One was injured and didn't play.  My guy was behind three senior outfielders and had only one at bat before he hurt his arm and had labrum surgery.  Doc says it's a very minor tear and he should make a full recovery. I hope so because Coach has told him he expected him to earn a starting spot next season.  I wish his school were a better fit, though. He's a very laid back (on the surface) beach boy, and says hardly anyone at his school is "chill."

I don't think you can overestimate the importance of fit. 

There is some simple math to this.  24,000 public HS and probably 1/3 again private.  That is about 32,000 schools.

There are about 6,000 colleges.  If each College program takes 8 kids (30 man roster) that means at least 3 or 4 of those 8 won't see significant time.  So every year there are about 25,000 slots max in college for kids to crack the lineup for significant time.

If every HS is graduating 6 kids that is 190,000 kids for 25,000 slots.  So you local stud has about a 8-1 shot of being a player at college.  Probably a little better given many won't sniff college ball.

The kids that come to it with real emotional maturity, personal organization and commitment to what they are there for have a giant leg up.  Even then luck such as an injury or somebody screwing up still might be necessary to get a chance.

The distractions are many.  The competition fierce.  The opportunities could be few.  For those that succeed - it is an accomplishment.

Like everything else in life - baseball is cruel and difficult the further up the ladder you go.  This site is filled with thousands of statements about how baseball teaches life.  I have always thought that is the wrong end of the telescope and that it is the other way around. 

Life is the big game - it teaches everything else.

As noted here so many times but yes standard. I just a conversation with Father/ friend who son will be attending an A10 school as freshman this fall. He is getting over 60% between the athletic and academic...which is not a small number and I would guess out of reach for the family if they had to pay whole bill.

My advise to him was work hard, have low expectations and keep the grades up. The truth is baseball will almost certainly be a disappointment but the experience can still be great. He looked at me like I was crazy, I just laughed and said lets talk about it in 24 months. 

Oh one big misconception on this site in my opinion is that baseball teaches life, at least in the professional world. 

Baseball is many times worse then corporate America, you can almost guarantee your coaches will treat your son worse then any boss he will have, they will demand more for less with little to no explanation. Most college coaches would be terminated, their companies sued and they would settle out of court because they couldn't begin to defend the actions if they treated employees they way players are treated...just my opinion but I have a fair amount of experience on both sides of the equation. 

My son's club team was a real success story. The core group of 13 kids have all graduated except for two (one drafted junior year). We had 7 D1, 2 D2, 4 D3... one 2-4 transfer, a 4-2-4 transfer, and a 4-4 transfer.

All but 2 guys played all through college, except for periods of injury. One of those 2 guys walked on at a school above his baseball level (he stayed and played club and graduated), and the other one had substance issues.

I would say the common thread was choosing a school where it was obvious they had the talent to play, and also most of those guys just really loved the game. It's funny, because their success at finding a good fit was partly due to not chasing all over trying to be seen by every school in the country. All but two (including the one with problems) played within about a 2 hour drive from home.

It”s funny you mention this. I ump HS games in spring & then tournaments & league games  in summer & fall.  If I happen to talk with parents during a break between games and they ask my opinion on kids playing at college level, they always look surprised and always respond how their kid is different. ( I had 2 boys that played fb in ACC,  Daughter SB in Patriot league & now a son in Centennial league for Baseball. They have No clue how ferocious the competition is For a playing slot.  Iron sharpens iron and adversity absolutely kills 75% (imop) of coddled superstars. 

Waffles....... parents that didn’t play past HS or haven’t had previous experiences with older kids are usually not even in the same solar system when discussing the college landscape while being realistic with their kids. It’s crazy at times. It is a battlefield 

@RJM posted:

At whatever level a kid shows up for college ball relative to that level there are 35+ players competing for about 20 playing time spots. Injuries and transfers cause fall out. Others get to college ball blind to the fact it’s a job and don’t want to put in the effort. Coaches are only so patient. For the first time the player is dealing with a legitimate boss. Coaching and winning is how the coach feeds his family and pays the mortgage. Playtime is over.

THIS is closer to the answer than talent level discrepancies - at least for scholarship players. Most kids given scholarships either have the talent to take a spot at that level or at least the raw talent that can be there if they put in the work.

I hate to trash my own son, but that's what happened with his D1 experience. He had a hefty scholarship. Showed up in the fall with all the talent necessary and left fall with the expectation of taking over the closer roll. Unfortunately, this was not a coaching staff that closely tracked how their players were doing OFF the field. Players here were not allowed to live in dorms - they had to rent houses or off-campus apartments because the staff wanted them together. My son shared a large house with six other players. He decided somewhere along the way that going to classes was optional. However, he somehow skipped along the first semester with C's and D's. Come Spring, he had given up going to class altogether and was putting in JUST the minimum practice time required while others were working their asses off. Finally, an assistant figured out he was missing classes and asked him about it. He lied and told him he had made all his classes. BIG mistake. 

So, now he was on the HC's shit list. The head coach called me and told me he thought my son needed to come home for a week and get his head together during the opening week of the season. He also told me that he didn't think he was a very hard worker, but that he needed him to step up. He took the week to go visit his girlfriend - learned nothing. Coach wrote him off and even pulled him from a prestigious Alaska League summer roster spot. He failed 3 of the 4 spring classes (actually was administratively withdrawn from 2 due to lack of attendance). 

He decided to transfer to JC - not many other options. Went I drove out to pack him up, his house was a mess. Beer cans - and other stuff - everywhere. This was nothing more than a party house. He wasn't alone. Two other prominent players were in the same boat. Some kids aren't properly prepared for the life of a D1 student-athlete. Hopefully, he can get his act together and be back. He's a kid with the talent, but lacked the maturity to make it. I imagine this happens to more than a few kids. 

@roothog66 posted:

THIS is closer to the answer than talent level discrepancies - at least for scholarship players. Most kids given scholarships either have the talent to take a spot at that level or at least the raw talent that can be there if they put in the work. 

Thanks for sharing your son's experience, and I hope it might help others avoid some of those pitfalls.

Now that you mention the maturity issue, I will have to say that my son's club team was kind of skewed toward success on that front. The manager played Ivy baseball and he set the team up with excellent coaching, facilities, and schedule at a very reasonable fee. He had very little patience for guys who were not serious about working or abiding by a code of conduct. Those who couldn't tow the line were dismissed. He sent some guys packing who had much more talent than my son. He set the whole thing up to where it was a privilege to play on the team in our area, and the boys knew it.

I'll echo the thanks to @roothog66 for sharing his son's experience. So much good information in this thread and I'm positive it will benefit others.

I'm not prepared to share the full details of my 2019 D3 player's experience yet, because it isn't over, but I feel that he's fairly close to baseball's inevitable heartbreak. I'll provide a bit of insight and then reveal the remainder when it's all said and done and there is no risk to my son's position. In his case, he's a catcher and only a catcher. He's not the gifted recruited shortstop who can be put anywhere on the field and he's not a 6'3" 220 masher so he has worked diligently on his craft in hopes that he can play as long as he's able. He's battled through a couple of injuries, one of which required surgery on his throwing arm during a critical exposure time during HS, but he found a place to play that, most importantly, he could see himself happy at without baseball. At this time, he's planning on going back in the fall and resuming team participation with the full intention of competing but, quite frankly, the shot is long that he'll ever see the field and the coaches have told him that the 1-2 slots are theirs to lose and that my son will likely have to work about 1.5 times harder than everyone else (oh, but that he needs to be prepared to come in at any time and has done great work with the pitchers in the pens ). He understand all of this and he doesn't really want to be a cheerleader for the next three years so he'll have some decisions to make pretty soon. I've actually been pretty impressed with the maturity of his attitude and how measured his approach has been. To me, this is an indicator that he's not viewing himself as some sort of victim and also understands that baseball was never really the future for him but something that is a big part of him that he loves. He has interests in several other areas and I believe is doing much pondering about what else he might be able to achieve if he channels the time and effort required for college baseball into those areas.

As we've seen stated so many times, every journey is different and there are no guarantees. Best of luck to all!

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

To me RJM is spot on. The reality that it’s a competition just to get playing time and you need to compete just to get on the field is a wake up call for many. So parents, while you may not like the coaches that give you open and honest feedback about your son or that they hold them accountable and don’t coddle them every day in practice and in games, what you are missing is the fact that very coach is preparing your kid for the next level and honestly for life. Every time you put your arm around them and say “it’s ok Johnny” when it’s really not  you are hurting them long term. Baseball is a cruel world the higher you go. As my college coach said “this game will break your heart sooner or later” . None of these numbers surprise me at all, looking back at the kids I’ve coached it’s easy to see why  certain ones made it and others didn’t. As a coach you can lead them to the water but.....

I knew nothing about baseball when my son started so really picked the brains of many good coaches and this board about how to guide my son and how to respond to the various situations he confronted.

Earlier this season he had a disastrous outing at his P5. I told my best advisor about it and asked what I should say.

He said I needed to be honest that he sucked. "He knows you know the game now. If you lie to him and tell him it was okay, he won't be able to believe you anymore. Tell him he had one bad game and what is he going to do about it. Let him talk his way through it."

As parents, our kids trust us. They know when we lie. Coaches shouldn't be the only ones giving our kids open and honest feedback. The difference is, we can do it with a hug.

@old_school posted:

Oh one big misconception on this site in my opinion is that baseball teaches life, at least in the professional world. 

Baseball is many times worse then corporate America, you can almost guarantee your coaches will treat your son worse then any boss he will have, they will demand more for less with little to no explanation. Most college coaches would be terminated, their companies sued and they would settle out of court because they couldn't begin to defend the actions if they treated employees they way players are treated...just my opinion but I have a fair amount of experience on both sides of the equation. 

Well said OS! I remember son's HC his freshman year started calling him"Uncle". Son had no idea why but just lived with it until one day he asked him why do you call me uncle. HC said, "cause you remind me of my fat uncle, loose some F......in weight". Mind you, this HC recruited him, signed him gave him a scholarship at the same weight. My son ran extra runs everyday went from 228 to 210 in a month and the HC never even acknowledged it.  HC would also use the bucket in the dugout comment regularly. "You see that bucket at the end of the dugout, that's going to be you seat all season if you don't get better".

I remember when my son started his first job out of college saying , this is a piece of cake compared my freshman year of baseball.

I asked my son for his observations after freshman year. His view was everyone was talented. There were 6-8 players at the top of the roster who were obviously locks to play. There were 6-8 players on the end of the roster who were marginal relative to the level of play hoping to get an opportunity. In the middle was the battle for playing time. 

After a couple of years he commented the battle in the middle was won by those who stayed physically and mentally ready to take advantage of opportunities. It was lost by those who sat at the end of the bench griping they were better than this guy and that guy getting playing time. 

@RJM posted:

I asked my son for his observations after freshman year. His view was everyone was talented. There were 6-8 players at the top of the roster who were obviously locks to play. There were 6-8 players on the end of the roster who were marginal relative to the level of play hoping to get an opportunity. In the middle was the battle for playing time. 

After a couple of years he commented the battle in the middle was won by those who stayed physically and mentally ready to take advantage of opportunities. It was lost by those who sat at the end of the bench griping they were better than this guy and that guy getting playing time. 

Great take! I have never once heard my son complain about his college teammates. He told me they're fighting for the same things he is and he's glad whenever they succeed because that helps the team and most of them have become pretty close friends. One thing we do need to be careful about however is generally associating negativity with those who do not win out playing time. There are a million different scenarios and certainly not all of them are the result of complaining, laziness, poor decision-making, etc. Sometimes kids just lose the desire to compete and/or choose to funnel that (not insignificant) time and those efforts elsewhere.

@tequila posted:

Great take! I have never once heard my son complain about his college teammates. He told me they're fighting for the same things he is and he's glad whenever they succeed because that helps the team and most of them have become pretty close friends. One thing we do need to be careful about however is generally associating negativity with those who do not win out playing time. There are a million different scenarios and certainly not all of them are the result of complaining, laziness, poor decision-making, etc. Sometimes kids just lose the desire to compete and/or choose to funnel that (not insignificant) time and those efforts elsewhere.

It wasn’t that they were bad kids. They had their bad moments. They’re more likely to occur as the season wears on and they believe they haven’t had a fair shot. They see the guy who earned the shot and not getting it done as an inferior player. They should have been asking themselves what they didn’t get done in practice to earn their shot. Or were they prepared when they got a midweek pinch hit opportunity.

In the big picture they were good teammates. But in baseball, like jobs as adults once you start questioning the process your head isn’t 100% in and one foot is out the door. Those with a “how do I fix this” approach are more likely to succeed.

I talked to my son about this thread.  He said on his college team, every upper classman who was a starter got significant playing time and made significant contributions their freshman year.  Those that did not play freshman year never got traction.   His take away - you need to go in as a freshman expecting to earn playing time or you are finished.  I looked at his friends and travel teammates experiences and I'd say his assessment was pretty good.

@RJM posted:

It wasn’t that they were bad kids. They had their bad moments. They’re more likely to occur as the season wears on and they believe they haven’t had a fair shot. They see the guy who earned the shot and not getting it done as an inferior player. They should have been asking themselves what they didn’t get done in practice to earn their shot. Or were they prepared when they got a midweek pinch hit opportunity.

In the big picture they were good teammates. But in baseball, like jobs as adults once you start questioning the process your head isn’t 100% in and one foot is out the door. Those with a “how do I fix this” approach are more likely to succeed.

A lot of parallels in work life and college baseball for sure. One key difference is that, at least at the D3 level, kids are not getting paid in any way to do it. They are doing it because they enjoy it. When they cease to enjoy it, for whatever reason, and decide to no longer play, it doesn't necessarily mean that they questioned the process or felt there was something that needed to be "fixed". If I sound like this is fresh for me it's because it is and it's not because my son is questioning the process or thinking he should be getting playing time because he's better than the starter(s). He's made some mistakes, and owned them, but I really think he's just growing up. Again, there are a few bits more to this story that I'm not in a position to share. This is really good discussion RJM and I'm not trying to split hairs here! I think many cases are just as you described.

You guys are really overrating that 'actual competition' matters.

Velo matters, hype matters, donations/legacies matter................ far more than any actual competition results or execution of winning baseball. Its the new normal, and no penalty (long term W-L records) because the new normal is in the other dugout as well.

The system would rather lose a 14 -12 game with a series of 90 slingers on the mound, than play a 12-5 winning game with a 87 that just keeps you in the controlled no drama winnable game.

But carry on.......

@Showball$ posted:

You guys are really overrating that 'actual competition' matters.

Velo matters, hype matters, donations/legacies matter................ far more than any actual competition results or execution of winning baseball. Its the new normal, and no penalty (long term W-L records) because the new normal is in the other dugout as well.

The system would rather lose a 14 -12 game with a series of 90 slingers on the mound, than play a 12-5 winning game with a 87 that just keeps you in the controlled no drama winnable game.

But carry on.......

 

 

At least at the D1 level, I can't say that I agree with this.

@roothog66 posted:

At least at the D1 level, I can't say that I agree with this.

Agree with Root, that is very far from the truth for any competitive college baseball program that I have been exposed to  regardless of level.  

Seems like @Showball$ has some "issues", I am sure there is a back story here somewhere.