Tebow

RJM posted:

Hard to hit 400+ foot bombs when you dont weigh 190lbs.

Power is generated by bat speed not size and strength. Mookie Betts is 5'9" 160. (31-113-.318/.534/.900)

Bat speed may be driven by size and strength. But it's not the reason a player has power. Not every big player has power.

 

 

I agree.  I watched Mookie hit BP last year in the playoffs and the balls kept sailing over my head out of the ball park.  I would credit muscle type, ie fast twitch with great bat speed, much more than i would muscle mass.  Some players have a lot of both (Giancarlo Stanton).

jacjacatk posted:

I'm not sure that anyone thought he would be a complete incompetent joke, he's not Shaq Thompson.  I would say that the expectation was probably centered around his AFL performance, and that he's likely near the upper end of what I thought it was realistic for him to do. He'd be several standard deviations away from any reasonable prediction if he makes it to MLB at all, much less the all-star game.

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

To be fair I am not sure the AFL was used to establish an average performance or any type of standard deviations on what his performance will be. I am pretty sure they never calculated a z-score for his performance. The Mets needed to find out fast where he would fit in the spectrum and start out.  The AFL was just a convenient place to face good talent. It seems like they put him in the correct level as he is getting adjusted to and making adjustments to his game. Plenty of people predicted he was a joke, would fail fast, and he has not done that.  So now that those predictions were incorrect those people move the bar to he now has to move through all levels and be in MLB by the 2018 All-Star game or he fails and their predictions that he will fail come true, they were always right and never wrong.  Heads I win tails you lose.

As an aside I enjoy that we are now seeing a steady stream of athletes named Shaq. i find that one of the things that make sports fun.

What if they moved him to first?  Plenty of hitters play first.  He may not be that type of hitter, but if the Mets truly want him there...

Depending on how bad he is in the OF, moving him to first might lessen the negative value of his defense, but it's not going to change the overall value equation much, since you have to be that much better a hitter at 1B to compete with all the defensively-challenged bat-first guys who eventually end up getting pushed there.  Same for DH.

What's the typical trajectory of stud minor league player who's graduated from college?  2-3 years to the first cup of coffee?  And that's for the guy who everyone thinks can already do it and then actually dominates the leagues he's in while moving towards his peak talent years.  Tebow's on the downside of peak baseball age, and nothing in his current skill set really projects to MLB regular level, with the possible exception of the power, even if he were to progress at a normal prospect rate. And he's far from dominating A ball at this stage.

Anyone want to hazard a guess as to how many washed-out MiLB players could put up the numbers he has in the Sally league at age 29? My guess would be a ton, and pretty much all of them are out of the game for good reason.

Just to pick a scrub at random, Joey Terdoslavich put up a .795 OPS in the Sally league in 21 games as a 21 year old while King in 21% of his PAs.  His peak was MLB replacement level/organization filler with an 8 year head-start. If Tebow managed to match Terdoslavich's .620 MLB OPS in 150ish PAs, that would be far better than anyone has any right to expect.

It is a very interesting experiment on many levels. Yes, he is highly likely to "fail", but it is intriguing to watch him try.  He's a good athlete, Heisman, two national championships, drafted in NFL, possibly could still be there if he'd changed position, and a dedicated worker.  He's going to get better.  It will be worth watching. To say the least. 

I'm not sure I buy into the use of "fail" with regards to this endeavor.

Tebow seems like the kind of guy who values both the journey and the destination. 

He looks like he's having a lot of fun.

However it turns out, I don't think he's going to look back and say it was a mistake or that he failed.

What wouldn't most of us give to have a chance to fail similarly?

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. 

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

 

Yes, I do, which is why I said the realistic ceiling on what should be expected from him at this point was that he'd eventually be able to put up something like competent AA offensive numbers while being a net negative value due to his defense.  So his everything breaks right offensive ceiling is still probably something like 2016-17 Cody Decker.

Joey Terdoslavich shouldn't be described as a scrub.  He has a 271 lifetime batting average in the minors, hit 82 HRs, and did well at both AA and AAA.  Also he played in the Big Leagues. 

PGStaff posted:

Joey Terdoslavich shouldn't be described as a scrub.  He has a 271 lifetime batting average in the minors, hit 82 HRs, and did well at both AA and AAA.  Also he played in the Big Leagues. 

And he's pretty much the definition of replacement level MLB player, the sort of guy teams routinely release and others sign as organizational depth. Immensely talented athlete no doubt, and a scrub, relative to regular MLBers, with a career that Tim Tebow would have to massively outperform his projections to equal.

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

 

I don't know, when you consider that Michael Jordan got a lengthy shot at AA. Don't discount the power of a good distraction and the ability of a club to push the limits of it.

roothog66 posted:

TPM posted:

jacjacatk posted:

 

The realistic ceiling on what should be expected at this point is probably competent AA-offense, but not good enough defense to be an on-field asset at that level. The upper error bar on that prediction probably doesn't include reaching MLB (on talent alone, anyway). The lower error bar is probably an eventual collapse back to AFL-like numbers at his current level.

You are joking, do you know how hard it is to get to AA?

Here is the dilemma. If they move him to high A and he he can't produce, 8there goes their attraction and then the experiment is over. They will keep him as long as they can at low A.  Their true prospects will move ahead  of him.  Mets have major league issues right now, this is their ditraction.

AZFL is a future prospect league. Again, it's pretty apparent that he was there for a reason.

JMO

 

I don't know, when you consider that Michael Jordan got a lengthy shot at AA. Don't discount the power of a good distraction and the ability of a club to push the limits of it.

Just going by what I have seen in that league. 

Tebow is not hitting enough given his age and defense but he is making some contact and getting some extra base hits. Still a lot of bad contact and also Ks but I was expecting it to become a total disaster before it all started (.110, all singles and 50% Ks).

If he can hit 250 with a 160 ISO over the season I would be impressed even if it isn't enough for the next level.

Raise your hand if you seriously thought Tim Tebow would be on a 9 for 20 streak this early on.

Once again, this isn't about whether he will succeed or fail, it's about what is happening.  I know I am surprised that any human being that didn't play baseball for, what is it, 12-13 years and at nearly 30 years old, could go on a 9-20 streak in professional baseball within his first couple weeks.

People can say what they want,  that 9-20 is amazing no matter what happens from here on out.  I mean really... isn't everyone surprised by that?  Surely we know how difficult it is to hit professional pitching at any level. Will that be the highlight of his baseball career?

Honestly I think baseball will just be another chapter in Tebow's life.  I doubt anyone thinks he will actually make it.  But isn't this at least interesting?

I agree. Those A ball pitchers are not great but they still throw 90 plus and to make contact with those pitches and getting some hits is an accomplishment after a 10 year layoff. It doesn't mean he can become a mlb hitter but it means he can play some  ball. Also in the of he has 15 put outs and one error so far with a 940 fielding percentage. Maybe that is not great but last fall people were acting like he couldn't even catch a routine fly ball.

I am not surprised by 9 for 20. These are 21 year olds,  most 21 year olds dont hit 90 and only a few will ever get passed high A. 

I didn't research down the the pitcher level. But Tebow's mini streak occurred against a last place team and a .500 team. 

" . . .  the velocities of A-ball pitchers are slightly below those of major leaguers, on average, but not by as much as some might think. It is quite rare to see a non-sidearmer in full-season ball who doesn’t at least touch 90 mph, and it’s almost unheard of to see one who can’t at least get up to 88." www.hardballtimes.com/how-mino...anges-across-levels/

In the South Atlantic League, which Tebow is playing in, almost two-thirds of pitchers average 90 or above, and, as the article points out, the vast majority at least touch 90.

TPM posted:

As more and more teams get better scouting reports, he will have a tougher time. 

His size is going to hurt him. Someone should tell him that baseball players arent supposed to look like football players.  Pitchers will continue to throw inside fastballs, because he is too big to turn on pitches as others can ( read this in bleacher report).

Once again to keep in mind, he is a 29 year old former college star playing single A milb where the average player is 21.

Tell that to aaron judge. I dont think it will be so much his size but his skill that will ultimately limit him. Of course the scouting reports will be a problem too. Maybe not so much in A ball since many pitchers there are working on specific things rather than trying to get guys out but definitely at higher levels.

2019Dad posted:

" . . .  the velocities of A-ball pitchers are slightly below those of major leaguers, on average, but not by as much as some might think. It is quite rare to see a non-sidearmer in full-season ball who doesn’t at least touch 90 mph, and it’s almost unheard of to see one who can’t at least get up to 88." www.hardballtimes.com/how-mino...anges-across-levels/

In the South Atlantic League, which Tebow is playing in, almost two-thirds of pitchers average 90 or above, and, as the article points out, the vast majority at least touch 90.

Yes. There may be some soft tossing innings eaters but most guys are supposed to become mlb pitchers and you get there by velo. Keep in mind that usually pro pitchers don't gain velo in the majors and many not even in the minors (statistically pitchers throw hardest when they are first called up and then slowly start to lose velo).

What is different between a ball and pro ball is command and especially off speed stuff that is usually not good at that level. They can throw a chase slider in the dirt but not really throw it for strikes consistently so as a hitter you can get pretty far by identifying them and laying them off. In mlb that does not work, those guys will throw them for strikes in any count.