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I didn't know whether to post this in the pitching forum, hitting forum, or somewhere else. So I posted it here.

I think this was taken from the 2010 MLB season. It includes every pitch thrown that year in the Major Leagues on every count. The count followed by the % each pitch was thrown in that count.

I will let others comment, but this paints a very clear picture for pitchers and hitters. Maybe it gives some understanding as to why velocity is valued so highly. If a hitter did nothing but look for a fastball he would be sitting on one most of the time. Of course, that would depend on who was pitching at the time.

Count
0-0...Fastball 68%...Slider 12%...Curve 8%... Changeup... 9%...Other 3%

0-1...Fastball 55%...Slider 17%...Curve 12%... Changeup... 13%... Other 3%

0-2...Fastball 52%...Slider 20%...Curve 15%... Changeup... 10%... Other 3%

1-0...Fastball 68%...Slider 11%...Curve 5%... Changeup... 14%... Other 2%

1-1...Fastball 56%...Slider 16%...Curve 10%... Changeup... 16%... Other 2%

1-2...Fastball 49%...Slider 21%...Curve 15%... Changeup... 13%... Other 2%

2-0...Fastball 79%...Slider 6%...Curve 2%... Changeup... 8%... Other 5%

2-1...Fastball 69%...Slider 12%...Curve 4%... Changeup... 14%... Other 1%

2-2...Fastball 54%...Slider 19%...Curve 12%... Changeup... 14%... Other 1%

3-0...Fastball 84%...Slider 1%...Curve 0%... Changeup... 3%... Other 12% (IBB)

3-1...Fastball 84%...Slider 6%...Curve 2%... Changeup... 7%... Other 1%

3-2...Fastball 70%...Slider 13%...Curve 5%... Changeup... 11%... Other 1%

Fastball includes all types of fastball
Other includes Splitter,Forkball, knuckleball, intentional ball and pitchout.
Taken from 2010 MLB season
Last edited {1}
Original Post

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It sure proves that the fastball is the pitch that most pitchers command the best. I kind of consider all breaking balls the same. Not that many pitchers master both pitches. So if you add Slider and Curve together, I think you get a better idea of what is being thrown in various counts.

Notice that curve and slider are most often thrown at 0-2, 1-2, 2-2 counts. It is the strikeout pitch for many pitchers. Especially the slider!
Last edited by PGStaff
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
Interesting that when pitcher is ahead- 0-1,1-1,0-2,1-2,2-2, he will only throw fastball 53.2% of the time and when he is neutral or behind he will throw fastball 75% of the time. Adding them all up, a pitcher will throw his fastball 66% of the time on average.


I wish I had a dollar for every time I’ve seen this kind of weak analysis. If you want to do a real analysis, do it on not just the umpires count when the pitch was thrown, but what the count was prior to that pitch, and what the number of the pitch was in the sequence.

IOW, are the numbers the same if the count was 1-1 and the 1st pitch was a ball as it was when it was a strike? Or, if the count is 2-2 but it’s the 8th pitch of the at bat, would the numbers be the same?

I’ll admit the analysis is better than guessing or counting on ol’ Pete’s gut instincts, but you could very easily be missing a very important boat.
quote:
Originally posted by J H:
Interesting to me is the amount of sliders vs. curveballs. 30 years ago that probably would have been different...


Possible, but I’m not so sure it isn’t the language that’s causing at least part of the difference. I know that in the 60’s and before, a lot of pitchers threw what today is called a slider, but it was called a curve or a hard curve. I’m not sure when the term “slider” came into widespread use, but I believe its fairly new.
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
Interesting that when pitcher is ahead- 0-1,1-1,0-2,1-2,2-2, he will only throw fastball 53.2% of the time and when he is neutral or behind he will throw fastball 75% of the time. Adding them all up, a pitcher will throw his fastball 66% of the time on average.


I wish I had a dollar for every time I’ve seen this kind of weak analysis. If you want to do a real analysis, do it on not just the umpires count when the pitch was thrown, but what the count was prior to that pitch, and what the number of the pitch was in the sequence.

IOW, are the numbers the same if the count was 1-1 and the 1st pitch was a ball as it was when it was a strike? Or, if the count is 2-2 but it’s the 8th pitch of the at bat, would the numbers be the same?

I’ll admit the analysis is better than guessing or counting on ol’ Pete’s gut instincts, but you could very easily be missing a very important boat.


I'm not missing any boat here..duh! It was a general analysis of the overall numbers- an average of sorts. It's just a different way of looking at the same numbers. Smile Big Grin Wink
quote:
Originally posted by bballdad2016:
Interesting, I would have never guessed the fastball was so relied on by pitchers. Even when the hitters were behind in the count it appears the heat was thrown more than half the time. Thanks for posting.


Some of us here have been saying that for years. Thr most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is considered secondary to it.

The slider's break is differrnt and moves away from the hitter.
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
Some of us here have been saying that for years. Thr most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is considered secondary to it.


So, most pitchers can win with one pitch?

Most pitchers need some type of fastball and some type of breaking ball. They are equally important. There is no "or". There is only "and".
Last edited by SultanofSwat
I'm sure everyone realizes that these are overall percentages. Obviously there are individual pitchers who throw more changeups and breaking balls than other pitchers. And there are pitchers who throw an even higher percentage of fastballs.

I think what would be interesting is if we could find % of strikes (swinging) and % of strikes (take) on each pitch. Breaking balls probably would have the highest % of swing and miss. I'm sure the fastball has the highest % of strikes overall.

The actual data from an individual pitcher obviously becomes very important to opposing hitters.
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
I'm not missing any boat here..duh! It was a general analysis of the overall numbers- an average of sorts. It's just a different way of looking at the same numbers. Smile Big Grin Wink


What it is, is looking at the numbers in a way that doesn’t represent what’s really happening. It’s a lot like saying, pitchers throw 80% FBs, and not bothering to look at the counts. In the end, the batters can sit dead red and have a theoretical advantage.

I will agree that it is a kind of an average, and I will agree that playing the odds it presents would definitely be better than flipping a coin. But, are there ways to analyze those numbers better, without getting into celestial mechanics or string theory? Of course there are. I’m not a big fan of complicated algorithms that require a lot of higher math skills, but what I’m talking about is a simple change that a most 4th grades could easily calculate.

All I’m saying is, rather than have a matrix made up of just the different umpire’s counts, make it show the order of the pitches, and break out foul balls with 2 strikes. All that happens is, the matrix is much larger, and it would be a lot easier to pick out what was going on, with no more work. But what generally happens is, people don’t want the extra information, for many reasons. Facts burst a lot of bubbles. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
…I think what would be interesting is if we could find % of strikes (swinging) and % of strikes (take) on each pitch. Breaking balls probably would have the highest % of swing and miss. I'm sure the fastball has the highest % of strikes overall….


quote:
Originally posted by Texas1836:
It would be interesting to see how the percentages change with runners in scoring position.


Those are the kind of inquiring minds I believe are changing the game. Not because the answers would be so groundbreaking, but because of the other things that would be found while searching to the answer to the questions.

FI, PG’s idea is great one, but he might be very surprised to see what percentage of pitches are actually swung at and missed. When I was redoing my program to track the 4 different kinds of strikes, fouls, misses, called and BIP, right away I get into trouble with foul tips. If a foul tip a foul or a miss? I ended up making it a miss because I didn’t want another button I had to press, and it was a live ball, just like a miss or a called strike.

When I started looking at the numbers, I was really surprised at the low percentage of swing and miss strikes, but I also knew there was more than one kind of swing and miss. In the ML games I’ve watched, a high percentage of swing and misses aren’t swings at all, at least not full swings. Many are checked swings or attempted bunts. I was going to break them out as well, but again, it would make me have more button options, and my whole purpose in changing the way I score, is to make my life easier, not more complicated. Wink

Here’s a very small example. Last night’s game had 382 pitches, and 25 were swings and misses for a total of 6.5%. Meanwhile, there were 62 called strikes for a total of 16.2%. That’s a fairly typical breakout too, and one that really surprised me when I first started looking. And for those of you who believe throwing a ball in the dirt in a good pitcher’s count leads to a lot of K’s, in last night’s game there were 20 pitches that hit the dirt prior to the catcher. Only one was swung at. That’s a little more than most games, but the number of swings isn’t.


Texas1836,

What is your gut feeling as to what you’d see, and would it be any different for just a runner on 1st?
Springer anecdotally talks about Halladay having two or three good innings throwing mostly fastballs, then giving up a double and immediately going to more sliders. That is the reason for my inquiry.

My gut agrees but there are so many variables as you know. If there are no outs, two sac flies could score a run. If there are two outs, may stick to more fastballs.
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
I'm not missing any boat here..duh! It was a general analysis of the overall numbers- an average of sorts. It's just a different way of looking at the same numbers. Smile Big Grin Wink


What it is, is looking at the numbers in a way that doesn’t represent what’s really happening. It’s a lot like saying, pitchers throw 80% FBs, and not bothering to look at the counts. In the end, the batters can sit dead red and have a theoretical advantage.

I will agree that it is a kind of an average, and I will agree that playing the odds it presents would definitely be better than flipping a coin. But, are there ways to analyze those numbers better, without getting into celestial mechanics or string theory? Of course there are. I’m not a big fan of complicated algorithms that require a lot of higher math skills, but what I’m talking about is a simple change that a most 4th grades could easily calculate.

All I’m saying is, rather than have a matrix made up of just the different umpire’s counts, make it show the order of the pitches, and break out foul balls with 2 strikes. All that happens is, the matrix is much larger, and it would be a lot easier to pick out what was going on, with no more work. But what generally happens is, people don’t want the extra information, for many reasons. Facts burst a lot of bubbles. Wink


You are right in that you can't exactly get what is happening. I look at the generalness of it though and it pretty much sums up what happens most of the time. For instance- with a 3-0 count, almost all pitchers will throw a fastball because they have the most control. I am trying to teach my son the mental aspect of playing the game and trying to get him thinking and playingf outside the box. In a recent game he had a 3-0 count and threw three straight sliders that struck the player out to end the game. The video showed the batter out in front on all three pitches. He was thinking fastball each time. Luckily for him he can control his slider with pretty good precision (hit strike zone the majority of the time with pitch) and at times goes to it over his fastball when he needs a strike.

Throwing first strike fastballs is a pretty general norm in every level of play. Occasionally you will see a pitcher throw offspeed first pitch. Baseball is about finding patterns and then guessing right. What i am working on is creating a state of rather disrupted organized chaos for the batter with our pitcher. Constantly work to change the timing and thought process that goes on in a batters mind.
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
You are right in that you can't exactly get what is happening. I look at the generalness of it though and it pretty much sums up what happens most of the time. For instance- with a 3-0 count, almost all pitchers will throw a fastball because they have the most control. I am trying to teach my son the mental aspect of playing the game and trying to get him thinking and playingf outside the box. In a recent game he had a 3-0 count and threw three straight sliders that struck the player out to end the game. The video showed the batter out in front on all three pitches. He was thinking fastball each time. Luckily for him he can control his slider with pretty good precision (hit strike zone the majority of the time with pitch) and at times goes to it over his fastball when he needs a strike.


Well GBM, I can’t fault your logic, but I will say this. In GENERAL, coaches call pitches now-a-days, and in GENERAL, you won’t see many of them having a pitcher throw an OS breaking ball 3-0. That doesn’t mean it WON’T happen because there are so many situations, to say something that definitive would show real stupidity. But typically, unless it’s a very dangerous hitter and the situation could cost the game if he clubs one, the GENERAL idea is to not walk the batter.

The 1st step in doing that, is to at least give yourself one more chance to get him out if he doesn’t swing, and that means throwing the highest percentage pitch possible, which for most pitchers is a FB. The reason for that is, it’s the pitch ALMOST every pitcher throws the most, and is in GENERAL, the pitch most can control the best because it breaks the least. Anything else is just reducing the chances of throwing a strike. It doesn’t at all make it impossible, but it does reduce the chances.

What I’m saying is, when he’s in a tight game in HS, and he decides to throw a 3-0 slider, don’t be surprised if when he gets home, he’s a little lighter in the backside. Wink

quote:
Throwing first strike fastballs is a pretty general norm in every level of play. Occasionally you will see a pitcher throw offspeed first pitch. Baseball is about finding patterns and then guessing right. What i am working on is creating a state of rather disrupted organized chaos for the batter with our pitcher. Constantly work to change the timing and thought process that goes on in a batters mind.


True, that’s generally true of all but the very best pitchers in HS ball and below. But here again, I think there’s a disconnect between what people THINK is taking place, and what REALLY does. Here again, in GENERAL, coaches are calling pitches, so the matter is really out of the pitcher’s hands. And why do coaches GENERALLY call 1st pitch FBs? Because they GENERALLY believe their pitchers are much more accurate with the FB than anything else, so they’re betting on the best odds.

And because of the way the game is currently played, in GENERAL it’s a pretty good bet, and why is that? Because in GENERAL, coaches today believe that the more pitches hitters see, the better their chances for seeing a mistake they can drive. Put the two things together, and it’s a pretty good bet that in GENERAL, most young hitters won’t be hacking at that 1st pitch, even if it’s a beach ball right down the middle.

But the thing that fouls that up is, there are a lot of good hitters who can and do take a whack at 1st pitches, if they think they’re good enough to put the barrel on. We have one kid who starts drooling when he thinks a pitcher was going to throw a 1st pitch FB, and it doesn’t matter if its 75, 85, or 95. And I’m gonna guess that if everyone really checked, they’d find at least one of those guys on their team, and prolly that kid would be one of the better hitters.

The see more pitches is good thing mindset does work at almost every level, but the lower the level, the less the advantage, because the pitchers don’t have ML skills, and neither do the hitters. Wink
Last edited by Stats4Gnats
quote:
Originally posted by SultanofSwat:
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
Some of us here have been saying that for years. Thr most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is considered secondary to it.


So, most pitchers can win with one pitch?

Most pitchers need some type of fastball and some type of breaking ball. They are equally important. There is no "or". There is only "and".


You need to reread what I posted. I will repeat for you, the most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is secondary to it.

I did not say or elude to the fact that a pitcher only needs one pitch.
Last edited by TPM
PG,
Thanks for posting the info. I was a bit surprised by 2-2. I thought the fastball percentage would've been higher. Nice to know.

BTW, On a completely different subject. I know you have access to plenty of radar guns. Do you have access to a facility with fairly steep stands where you could take a few kids and gun them making throws up into the stands?
Last edited by CADad
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
You are right in that you can't exactly get what is happening. I look at the generalness of it though and it pretty much sums up what happens most of the time. For instance- with a 3-0 count, almost all pitchers will throw a fastball because they have the most control. I am trying to teach my son the mental aspect of playing the game and trying to get him thinking and playingf outside the box. In a recent game he had a 3-0 count and threw three straight sliders that struck the player out to end the game. The video showed the batter out in front on all three pitches. He was thinking fastball each time. Luckily for him he can control his slider with pretty good precision (hit strike zone the majority of the time with pitch) and at times goes to it over his fastball when he needs a strike.


Well GBM, I can’t fault your logic, but I will say this. In GENERAL, coaches call pitches now-a-days, and in GENERAL, you won’t see many of them having a pitcher throw an OS breaking ball 3-0. That doesn’t mean it WON’T happen because there are so many situations, to say something that definitive would show real stupidity. But typically, unless it’s a very dangerous hitter and the situation could cost the game if he clubs one, the GENERAL idea is to not walk the batter.

The 1st step in doing that, is to at least give yourself one more chance to get him out if he doesn’t swing, and that means throwing the highest percentage pitch possible, which for most pitchers is a FB. The reason for that is, it’s the pitch ALMOST every pitcher throws the most, and is in GENERAL, the pitch most can control the best because it breaks the least. Anything else is just reducing the chances of throwing a strike. It doesn’t at all make it impossible, but it does reduce the chances.

What I’m saying is, when he’s in a tight game in HS, and he decides to throw a 3-0 slider, don’t be surprised if when he gets home, he’s a little lighter in the backside. Wink

quote:
Throwing first strike fastballs is a pretty general norm in every level of play. Occasionally you will see a pitcher throw offspeed first pitch. Baseball is about finding patterns and then guessing right. What i am working on is creating a state of rather disrupted organized chaos for the batter with our pitcher. Constantly work to change the timing and thought process that goes on in a batters mind.


True, that’s generally true of all but the very best pitchers in HS ball and below. But here again, I think there’s a disconnect between what people THINK is taking place, and what REALLY does. Here again, in GENERAL, coaches are calling pitches, so the matter is really out of the pitcher’s hands. And why do coaches GENERALLY call 1st pitch FBs? Because they GENERALLY believe their pitchers are much more accurate with the FB than anything else, so they’re betting on the best odds.

And because of the way the game is currently played, in GENERAL it’s a pretty good bet, and why is that? Because in GENERAL, coaches today believe that the more pitches hitters see, the better their chances for seeing a mistake they can drive. Put the two things together, and it’s a pretty good bet that in GENERAL, most young hitters won’t be hacking at that 1st pitch, even if it’s a beach ball right down the middle.

But the thing that fouls that up is, there are a lot of good hitters who can and do take a whack at 1st pitches, if they think they’re good enough to put the barrel on. We have one kid who starts drooling when he thinks a pitcher was going to throw a 1st pitch FB, and it doesn’t matter if its 75, 85, or 95. And I’m gonna guess that if everyone really checked, they’d find at least one of those guys on their team, and prolly that kid would be one of the better hitters.

The see more pitches is good thing mindset does work at almost every level, but the lower the level, the less the advantage, because the pitchers don’t have ML skills, and neither do the hitters. Wink


In "GENERAL".... Smile
quote:
Originally posted by TRhit:
all thius is well and good but overlooked in the discussion is what pitches are and are not working for the pitcher.

additionally what is the umpires zone like


That’s correct, but here’s a funny thing about baseball numbers. There’s only so many data points that can be tracked. In the ML, things are a little different. They score differently, they gather the data differently, and what more important, is they have several people tracking all kinds of different things for different reasons and for different entities.

So, if they wanted to, its wouldn’t be a big stretch to track what pitches were or weren’t working for a pitcher or what the zone would be like, but how would that be defined, and who would make the determination? I’m sure the answer to the question would be very different depending on who you’d ask, so how would you track it, and how would you factor it in? It’s a valid question, but there is no way I can see to do it, even in subjective terms. A team could do it for their pitchers because they could assign values. But that wouldn’t work for the other team, and surely not across the entire league.
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
quote:
Originally posted by bballdad2016:
Interesting, I would have never guessed the fastball was so relied on by pitchers. Even when the hitters were behind in the count it appears the heat was thrown more than half the time. Thanks for posting.


Some of us here have been saying that for years. Thr most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is considered secondary to it.

The slider's break is differrnt and moves away from the hitter.


Thats what i said Confused, were you agreeing with me, or reaffirming that you already knew what i had just learned?
quote:
Originally posted by bballdad2016:
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
quote:
Originally posted by bballdad2016:
Interesting, I would have never guessed the fastball was so relied on by pitchers. Even when the hitters were behind in the count it appears the heat was thrown more than half the time. Thanks for posting.


Some of us here have been saying that for years. Thr most important pitch to develop is the FB and everything else is considered secondary to it.

The slider's break is differrnt and moves away from the hitter.


Thats what i said Confused, were you agreeing with me, or reaffirming that you already knew what i had just learned?


I was just reaffirming your statement. Smile
There are some who post here that will not acknowledge that fact. JMO. Everything's good.
quote:
Originally posted by Gingerbread Man:
Hum...I wasn't aware that some who post here don't think the fastball is a pitchers primary pitch. Who would they be? Just curious. I thought everyone knows that the fastball is a pitchers primary pitch and should be the most important to develop.


"They" would be people like myself (still learning with a young Son that loves the game). Check my original post on this thread.

Thanks for your reply TPM. Have a great weekend.
Last edited by bballdad2016

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