What are the pros and cons of going as an undrafted free agent this year in regards to getting to The Show? Will there be better coaching / attention in the minors due to less bodies?
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I know that we have spoken before about your son, and trying to get back on the mound. Has anyone spoken to him about signing as a free agent? Do you realize he could be signed as a FA and let go next spring, have you discussed a plan if that happens?
Just wondering, why would your son not use another year of his eligibility?
He turned 21 last month and "the clock is ticking" (as one scout explained). The same scout explained that the pros would take him raw because of his velo and would teach him control, which was not great his first games back; this is no longer a concern as he has "figured out" his mechanics during the break.
@LHP's Roady posted:He turned 21 last month and "the clock is ticking" (as one scout explained). The same scout explained that the pros would take him raw because of his velo and would teach him control, which was not great his first games back; this is no longer a concern as he has "figured out" his mechanics during the break.
Just one scout has told this to your son, or multiple scouts from other teams?
You asked pros and cons. I think at this point your son has to do what he feels is best for him.
@LHP's Roady posted:What are the pros and cons of going as an undrafted free agent this year in regards to getting to The Show? Will there be better coaching / attention in the minors due to less bodies?
As MLB/MiLB cuts back on players it stands to reason that they will also cut back on the number of coaches. I'd be willing to bet that the amount of attention he will get in the minors will probably not change. If they decide to expand MiLB rosters, the attention level could actually go down. I can't see them having more than one pitching coach per team.
As far as whether he will get better coaching in the minors, that's gonna be a crap shoot. The traditional minor league model has been to bring in a ton of guys and let the cream rise to the top. My son spent two years in the White Sox organization and anything resembling serious coaching was non-existent. Granted, he has been out of the game for 6 years and SOME organizations have started revamping their pitcher "development" programs. But, some organizations are still stuck in the dark ages when it comes to truly developing players. In many cases, players will get better coaching in college than than they will ever get in the minor league system.
What the scout told your son about the "clock is ticking" is a very real factor for many teams. I do not envy his dilemma. The older a kid is, the less patient they are going to be waiting for him to develop. But, the harder he throws, the more "patient" they are likely to be.
Mike Ford, now with the Yankees, was an undrafted FA.
It may be a tougher hill to climb when compared to a 1st rounder, but talent rises to the top.
(Ford was probably the best all round baseball player to ever play in the Ivy league. Was the best pitcher, hitter, and competitor on his team. He was signed during his season on the Cape. He also once hit four home runs in a minor league game. Oh, and he managed to graduate Princeton also.)
Ford was an Ivy League grad who also, as stated, best all around player from the IL.
He spent 7 years until he got called up, but he had something to fall back on.
Didn't need it, but had a plan B.
Have a plan A.
Plan B is MiLB given the statistics, not sure what the un-drafted % is but it can't be over 5%.
According to the NCAA, about 1 in every 200 high school seniors who play baseball will eventually be drafted into the MLB. Taking this one step further — Bleacher Report reported back in 2012 the odds of actually playing in the MLB once you have been drafted. And the odds decrease significantly the further into the rounds you are drafted, and with 40 rounds, they get pretty small. First round draft picks, the best of the best only play in the MLB 66% of the time. This drops to 49% of the time in the second round, and goes all the way down to 7% for players drafted after the 21st round. So only 7% of these players, who were drafted into the MLB, will actually play in the MLB.
The small likelihood of high school players making it to the bigs kinda leads into a question I've been wondering about....what do scouts see in high school catchers that makes them so valuable and immediately draftable? I'm not knocking anyone, certainly not kids, but when one considers all there is to learn about catching, how do teams expect a high school kid to be able to manage a team on the field? I would think college catchers would be more valuable to teams b/c of the level of experience in managing pitchers/hitters and plays during a game. And calling pitches is another skill most hs catchers won't have...
@bballcares posted:What do scouts see in high school catchers that makes them so valuable and immediately draftable? I'm not knocking anyone, certainly not kids, but when one considers all there is to learn about catching, how do teams expect a high school kid to be able to manage a team on the field? I would think college catchers would be more valuable to teams b/c of the level of experience in managing pitchers/hitters and plays during a game. And calling pitches is another skill most hs catchers won't have...
The HS catchers being drafted play 3 years worth of summer ball with the top high school arms in the country. They would have been calling games against the best amateur lineups in the country from the time they were 13/14/15. Then Team USA and everything else. Many are also converted to other positions. It's not so much the experience, but the tools. The truly elite HS catchers are better than the majority of college starters by the time they're seniors anyway.
@bballcares posted:The small likelihood of high school players making it to the bigs kinda leads into a question I've been wondering about....what do scouts see in high school catchers that makes them so valuable and immediately draftable? I'm not knocking anyone, certainly not kids, but when one considers all there is to learn about catching, how do teams expect a high school kid to be able to manage a team on the field? I would think college catchers would be more valuable to teams b/c of the level of experience in managing pitchers/hitters and plays during a game. And calling pitches is another skill most hs catchers won't have...
Very few college catchers get to call games. With HS kids the thought is to draft them and let them start learning how to call games. What the scouts are looking for these days are power and the ability to hit from the left side or switch hit.
@BOF posted:Have a plan A.
Plan B is MiLB given the statistics, not sure what the un-drafted % is but it can't be over 5%.
According to the NCAA, about 1 in every 200 high school seniors who play baseball will eventually be drafted into the MLB. Taking this one step further — Bleacher Report reported back in 2012 the odds of actually playing in the MLB once you have been drafted. And the odds decrease significantly the further into the rounds you are drafted, and with 40 rounds, they get pretty small. First round draft picks, the best of the best only play in the MLB 66% of the time. This drops to 49% of the time in the second round, and goes all the way down to 7% for players drafted after the 21st round. So only 7% of these players, who were drafted into the MLB, will actually play in the MLB.
Pre Wuhan virus numbers. Now, even worse.
@bballcares posted:The small likelihood of high school players making it to the bigs kinda leads into a question I've been wondering about....what do scouts see in high school catchers that makes them so valuable and immediately draftable? I'm not knocking anyone, certainly not kids, but when one considers all there is to learn about catching, how do teams expect a high school kid to be able to manage a team on the field? I would think college catchers would be more valuable to teams b/c of the level of experience in managing pitchers/hitters and plays during a game. And calling pitches is another skill most hs catchers won't have...
The injury factor.
Catching is the position that is hardest to fill on the ML level. Everyone wants a Yadi, Sanchez, Posey, who will be around forever. However, there are a lot of college guys that have improved their stock working under a coach who can truly make a catcher better.
JMO
@PABaseball posted:The HS catchers being drafted play 3 years worth of summer ball with the top high school arms in the country. They would have been calling games against the best amateur lineups in the country from the time they were 13/14/15. Then Team USA and everything else. Many are also converted to other positions. It's not so much the experience, but the tools. The truly elite HS catchers are better than the majority of college starters by the time they're seniors anyway.
They also take long to make the show. Speed positions like SS or CF often make the majors young if they are really good but most HS catchers are still at least like 22-23 so teams had a lot of time developing them.
Many college catchers are simply bat first guys who have no shot at handling mlb especially as framing got so big, the defensive bar for catchers now is much higher than 10 years ago and bat first guys like Napoli or Vmart are no longer allowed to catch in the majors.
Most of the higher drafted college catchers or the last years had to move off C at some point (Schwarber, zack Collins likely too).
Thanks everyone for the input...in my limited experience it is still ‘bat first’ catchers going higher. Exceptional defensive catchers’ stats aren’t nearly as impressive or headline-grabbing as .330 BA or 1200 OPS. Elite catchers (IMO) make pitchers look great...it’s a subjective thing to gauge stealing strikes....
@bballcares posted:Thanks everyone for the input...in my limited experience it is still ‘bat first’ catchers going higher. Exceptional defensive catchers’ stats aren’t nearly as impressive or headline-grabbing as .330 BA or 1200 OPS. Elite catchers (IMO) make pitchers look great...it’s a subjective thing to gauge stealing strikes....
I respectfully disagree. Exceptional catchers stats is what gets them attention.
MLBPA rejects MLB's proposal for revamped 2020 draft
Because of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic, the league proposed shortening the draft from 40 rounds to 10. While the MLBPA previously accepted the shortened draft, there were other restrictions included in the proposal that the union found unacceptable, according to Rosenthal and Drellich.
MLB's plan called for picks in the first five rounds to maintain their slot values as in a normal 40-round draft. However, slot values in Rounds 6 through 10 would have been set at 50% of Rounds 1 through 5, according to Rosenthal and Drellich, and would have also had a hard cap on signing bonuses at each pick's slot value.