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For all the discussions about velo vs pitchability that has been discussed on the board, all one has to do is turn on the SEC tournament. I have never seen so many 95+ arms on one team that what Florida has. Kentucky had a guy hit 100 on the first day. No matter what you think, velocity is KING!!  These guys are flat out unbelievable. It is hard for me to believe that the 8 teams that make it to Omaha will be much better than what is on display in Hoover. Of course I am blindly prejudice. 

Thanks YG

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younggun posted:

For all the discussions about velo vs pitchability that has been discussed on the board, all one has to do is turn on the SEC tournament. I have never seen so many 95+ arms on one team that what Florida has. Kentucky had a guy hit 100 on the first day. No matter what you think, velocity is KING!!  These guys are flat out unbelievable. It is hard for me to believe that the 8 teams that make it to Omaha will be much better than what is on display in Hoover. Of course I am blindly prejudice. 

well 7 of the top 10 teams in the country are in Hoover

and yea Florida's pitching staff is ridiculous.  I am still trying to figure out how they managed not to win the east.

The Florida-LSU game last night was a great game (and ridiculously long).

Yes it was LONG and crazy. LSU has won back to back games in unbelievable fashion. The hitters aren't shabby either though. If you can't control a secondary pitch, you will not shut down these hitters even with 95. SEC baseball has to be close to A or possibly AA level MiLB. I guess that is why a lot of these guys get drafted and move up pretty rapidly. I know I am being a homer. I am sure there are other great teams in other conferences, I just haven't had the opportunity to see them like I have SEC teams. 

I have never watched a A or AA game.  We have a decent D1 program and at one point years ago they shared their stadium with a AAA team during stadium renovations.  I had always thought the level of play was similar.  We happened to watch a college game one night and the next night went to the AAA game at the same stadium.  It was night and day difference in level of play.  Like comparing a HS Freshman team to their Varsity team.  It wasn't even close.  

SEC play is definitely not equivalent to AA play, but it might be as good as short-season play or something like that on a good night vs. two bad short-season A ball teams. 

Watch minor league Latin players play the field. Random A ball Latin infielders would embarrass most American college infielders. This is not to put down NCAA-level baseball, but to expose just how hard it is to play professionally.

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

younggun posted:

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

No you are good, the SEC and ACC are loaded with great pitching and excellent players overall. Both conference championships are really tough and there is a lot at stake with these teams vying for national seeds and the number 1 seed. But this is college baseball at its best. It's not AA or AAA level but the closest I have seen is in the NY Penn league which is filled with college players.

My son played for Sully and besides being good at managing the game he is an A+++ recruiter and does develop players for the next level.  

So hoping for you that this time next year you will be in Hoover watching that other team that wears purple!

younggun posted:

Haha TPM. That's what I'm so looking forward to. Rehab is progressing well so far. Thanks for the kind words and thoughts. Most people really have no idea how important health is. I know I didn't before this year. 

Glad to hear all is well. I am looking forward to seeing younggunson and RedFishFoolson this time next year!

 

 

younggun posted:

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

SEC schools have been getting a lot of good would-be drafted guys from HS. There's a growing trend of top 10 round HS kids going to college instead of pro ball, so you're seeing better than average talent at the D1 level compared to years past. Furthermore, colleges generally have a better idea how to develop velocity in pitchers compared to pro ball, so a lot of those guys get significantly better there while in pro ball that's not always the case.

Yes,  you need to be able to throw strikes but velocity does highly correlate with performance I think velocity (combined with the larger strike zone)  is the biggest reason for the increased Ks in mlb. 

The  biggest thing is margin for error. A perfectly located fastball at 88 usually gets the out too but you just can't be perfect all the time and mid 90s mean you can get away with more mistake pitches. If Arnold's Chapman throws one down the pipe sometimes it gets hit too but much less often  than a fastball down the pipe from Jared weaver. 

It is also true that very hard throwers have an increased risk of injury but  at the highest level teams just have to take that risk. 

Dominik85 posted:

Yes,  you need to be able to throw strikes but velocity does highly correlate with performance I think velocity (combined with the larger strike zone)  is the biggest reason for the increased Ks in mlb. 

The  biggest thing is margin for error. A perfectly located fastball at 88 usually gets the out too but you just can't be perfect all the time and mid 90s mean you can get away with more mistake pitches. If Arnold's Chapman throws one down the pipe sometimes it gets hit too but much less often  than a fastball down the pipe from Jared weaver. 

It is also true that very hard throwers have an increased risk of injury but  at the highest level teams just have to take that risk. 

Agreed - Higher velo simply means that you get away with more mistakes...and batters tend to sometimes swing at more balls in an effort to 'catch up.'

hshuler posted:
Dominik85 posted:

Yes,  you need to be able to throw strikes but velocity does highly correlate with performance I think velocity (combined with the larger strike zone)  is the biggest reason for the increased Ks in mlb. 

The  biggest thing is margin for error. A perfectly located fastball at 88 usually gets the out too but you just can't be perfect all the time and mid 90s mean you can get away with more mistake pitches. If Arnold's Chapman throws one down the pipe sometimes it gets hit too but much less often  than a fastball down the pipe from Jared weaver. 

It is also true that very hard throwers have an increased risk of injury but  at the highest level teams just have to take that risk. 

Agreed - Higher velo simply means that you get away with more mistakes...and batters tend to sometimes swing at more balls in an effort to 'catch up.'

Higher velo also means more effective off speed.

What is amazing to me is that these 95+mph get hit and get hit hard some times.  Until the NCAA tournament starts, I'm mostly watching SEC, ACC because that is what is offered in my TV area.   FInding an ACC or SEC player hitting under .300 is almost non-existent on these teams.  Velocity is King, but the King gets hit really hard unless he's got 2 or 3 other pitches to keep those talented SEC and ACC .300 hitters guessing.

fenwaysouth posted:

What is amazing to me is that these 95+mph get hit and get hit hard some times.  Until the NCAA tournament starts, I'm mostly watching SEC, ACC because that is what is offered in my TV area.   FInding an ACC or SEC player hitting under .300 is almost non-existent on these teams.  Velocity is King, but the King gets hit really hard unless he's got 2 or 3 other pitches to keep those talented SEC and ACC .300 hitters guessing.

You are correct.  After the second or third time the hitter has faced the pitcher it's a bit easier to catch up so the pitcher has to have at least 2 maybe 3 other pitches to keep him guessing.  Plus these guys are really tall so that makes a differences . These guys  are still a work in progress.  They will make mistakes and pay for it, but that's how you learn.

Still amazing to me is the guy who dosent  throw as hard and still can win. Their FB is pinpoint as is their off speed stuff.

Kyle Boddy posted:
younggun posted:

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

SEC schools have been getting a lot of good would-be drafted guys from HS. There's a growing trend of top 10 round HS kids going to college instead of pro ball, so you're seeing better than average talent at the D1 level compared to years past. Furthermore, colleges generally have a better idea how to develop velocity in pitchers compared to pro ball, so a lot of those guys get significantly better there while in pro ball that's not always the case.

This really caught my eye and just wondering why you think that is.  I don't really keep up with college or MiLB baseball so just curious why pro ball doesn't develop velocity since they have so much invested in them.

Kyle Boddy posted:
younggun posted:

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

SEC schools have been getting a lot of good would-be drafted guys from HS. There's a growing trend of top 10 round HS kids going to college instead of pro ball, so you're seeing better than average talent at the D1 level compared to years past. Furthermore, colleges generally have a better idea how to develop velocity in pitchers compared to pro ball, so a lot of those guys get significantly better there while in pro ball that's not always the case.

Good post and true. The top programs have better instruction than the low minors.  And the trend is that top prospects will spend their time growing up in a better atmosphere than in proball.  Example, Seth Beer.

Unless someone gives you lots of money not to go to school, be careful what you wish for.  

 

Coach,

To be honest, at the lowest levels the instruction isn't as good as it is in these big college programs.  Neither is the strength or fitness programs. It's all better at the top, not the bottom.  These college guys are a year maybe two, maybe less away from ML while the player out of HS is 4-5.

I can't stress this enough, as someone who has seen it from both sides.

 

Last edited by TPM

Obviously, each situation is different but I know of a kid who signed with an ACC school and was also a high draft pick. He got the money that he said it would take for him to sign but his mom says the kid really regrets not going to college. 

Now again, each situation is different but a lot of kids aren't mature enough at 17/18/19 to handle baseball as a full-time job. 

hshuler posted:

Obviously, each situation is different but I know of a kid who signed with an ACC school and was also a high draft pick. He got the money that he said it would take for him to sign but his mom says the kid really regrets not going to college. 

Now again, each situation is different but a lot of kids aren't mature enough at 17/18/19 to handle baseball as a full-time job. 

I know of someone who got the money they said it would take to sign, a million+.

Mom said he should have gone to college. That just tells me a lot right there.

coach2709 posted:
Kyle Boddy posted:
younggun posted:

Yea I guess you aren't comparing apples to apples when the college guys are swinging metal bats. That being said, the quality of play I am watching in Hoover is extremely high. There have been quite a few errors so yes defensively not up to par with what you would expect from pro guys. Still the upper level teams have been fielding around .980. The pressure of these games are causing teams to make mistakes that haven't made over a season of work. 

Just seems unusual to have so many power arms in one location. Maybe this is just where the game is now. I know there are a lot of 90+ guys out there, but 95+?  It just blows my mind. Maybe I am just out of touch. 

SEC schools have been getting a lot of good would-be drafted guys from HS. There's a growing trend of top 10 round HS kids going to college instead of pro ball, so you're seeing better than average talent at the D1 level compared to years past. Furthermore, colleges generally have a better idea how to develop velocity in pitchers compared to pro ball, so a lot of those guys get significantly better there while in pro ball that's not always the case.

This really caught my eye and just wondering why you think that is.  I don't really keep up with college or MiLB baseball so just curious why pro ball doesn't develop velocity since they have so much invested in them.

Speaking from experience, if you're not a high draft pick then they really don't have a lot invested in you. 

The guys who are high draft picks will have every opportunity to succeed until the organization comes to the decision that it's not going to happen.

Thanks guys and that makes sense.  My experience with professional ball is SUPER limited and really it's just the one kid I coached who was drafted by the Yankees a few years ago.  He was a fairly high draft pick with good bargaining power because he was going to get a 50% scholarship.  So when I would talk to him in the offseason it was always how they took care of him.  But knowing that most MiLB players are there to fill teams so the better prospects can play makes sense now.

Shows how much money is involved in professional baseball.

younggun posted:

Haha TPM. That's what I'm so looking forward to. Rehab is progressing well so far. Thanks for the kind words and thoughts. Most people really have no idea how important health is. I know I didn't before this year. 

Can you elaborate on this statement?  Health as in arm health or overall health?   Looking back do you have any regrets on how your son's pitching load was managed? 

Hey Lionbaseball.  I was talking about arm health in my son's particular case, but we have another kid on his team that has been out for almost 2 months with a stress fracture in his back, so overall health is important as well.  Once you get injured, someone else steps in and if you can't win your spot back you are just on the outside looking in.  That is why you have to be ready when your number is called.

As far as son's pitching load, I'm not sure what he could have done different.  I coached him up until age 12.  I was always very aware of pitch count before that was even in vouge.  He didn't throw breaking pitches until 14 or 15.  Thinking back, the only time I can remember him being overused was his freshman summer.  At our HS, the coach is adamant that you play summer ball with the school or you may have to suffer consequences.  Wasn't really an issue with us because we had talked with the coach to explain why son was gonna play summer ball.  Son just felt that summer was important to play with HS to hopefully aid in his making V as sophomore.  Our school summer league is only month of June, so it really didn't interfere with travel team.  Anyway, he starts one game and is cruising along with no issues.  About the 5th inning, I see movement in the bullpen so I figure son is about done.  Well he goes back out for 6th.  I am irritated.  He goes back out for 7th.  Now I am pissed.  It wasn't like coach was worried about winning a game as we were up 10-1 or something.  This was the one and only time I was about to have a confrontation with a coach.  As soon as the game ended, I headed to the dugout.  Son came out just as I reached the gate.  He asked, "Dad where are you going?"  I explained to him what had just happened and why I was mad as heck.  He pleaded with me not to say anything that he felt fine and the coaches had asked him if he was okay.  I sent him back to get me a pitch count.  He came back with "about 100".  My rear end.  That proved to me the coach wasn't keeping track.  This was a JV coach.  My son did make varsity the next year and never player for this coach.  I did have a conversation later with the V coach to make him aware of the situation.  That coach had left the program after the summer anyway.  Sorry for the length, but other than this instance, I can't think of another time son's pitch count was abused.  I can remember another instance early in his senior year where he threw more than I thought was necessary based on cold and rainy weather.  I don't have an answer as to why his injury occurred.  His junior and senior years he threw around 70 innings total for spring, summer and a few fall tourneys.  Son typically threw 65% strikes and was a high strike out pitcher.  Seems like he averaged about 15-16 pitches per inning with very low walk rate.

Disclaimer: My kid is in college and we thought about the draft last year and had a number to go. He did not get drafted.  We are very happy he is in college.

I suspect this 2014 article has been posted previously but it is an interesting read, especially if you don't know the stats and are being courted by MLB teams or facing upcoming draft vs college decisions.

http://www.numberfire.com/mlb/...han-high-school-ones

As it has been said before, you are a commodity unless you are getting a big a$$ check out of high school. Even then, there is a ratio somewhere that allows them to write you off when you aren't producing. Your son is competing with Latin players who are trying to survive/change their family tree, not just chasing the dream of playing pro ball vs attend college and join the workforce. 

All that being said, IF my son would have gotten his $$, i would have let him chase his dream, silly huh? Sorry for highjacking the thread.

 

Last edited by Shoveit4Ks
Shoveit4Ks posted:

Disclaimer: My kid is in college and we thought about the draft last year and had a number to go. He did not get drafted.  We are very happy he is in college.

I suspect this 2014 article has been posted previously but it is an interesting read, especially if you don't know the stats and are being courted by MLB teams or facing upcoming draft vs college decisions.

http://www.numberfire.com/mlb/...han-high-school-ones

As it has been said before, you are a commodity unless you are getting a big a$$ check out of high school. Even then, there is a ratio somewhere that allows them to write you off when you aren't producing. Your son is competing with Latin players who are trying to survive/change their family tree, not just chasing the dream of playing pro ball vs attend college and join the workforce. 

All that being said, IF my son would have gotten his $$, i would have let him chase his dream, silly huh? Sorry for highjacking the thread.

 

Not silly at all. I think it just depends on the kid/situation. For some it makes perfect sense to go through pro route and for others the college route is best.  

I think the parent and athlete would need to have a serious and pros and cons discussion to see what's best route for the kid...but the decision would be the athlete's and not the parent's, in my opinion. 

fenwaysouth posted:

What is amazing to me is that these 95+mph get hit and get hit hard some times.  Until the NCAA tournament starts, I'm mostly watching SEC, ACC because that is what is offered in my TV area.   FInding an ACC or SEC player hitting under .300 is almost non-existent on these teams.  Velocity is King, but the King gets hit really hard unless he's got 2 or 3 other pitches to keep those talented SEC and ACC .300 hitters guessing.

Most of these fireballers have some funky mechanics.  They're often too open and show the ball too early.  There's so many 90's throwers not even getting drafted these days.  In the past if you touched 90 you'd get drafted, even if it's in the final rounds.  Mechanics were more fluid in the past.  Now kids look like they're muscling the ball.  But velocity has never been king in the CWS.  Hard throwers like Kris Benson and Ryan Mills got lit up in CWS.  

hsbaseball101 posted:
fenwaysouth posted:

What is amazing to me is that these 95+mph get hit and get hit hard some times.  Until the NCAA tournament starts, I'm mostly watching SEC, ACC because that is what is offered in my TV area.   FInding an ACC or SEC player hitting under .300 is almost non-existent on these teams.  Velocity is King, but the King gets hit really hard unless he's got 2 or 3 other pitches to keep those talented SEC and ACC .300 hitters guessing.

Most of these fireballers have some funky mechanics.  They're often too open and show the ball too early.  There's so many 90's throwers not even getting drafted these days.  In the past if you touched 90 you'd get drafted, even if it's in the final rounds.  Mechanics were more fluid in the past.  Now kids look like they're muscling the ball.  But velocity has never been king in the CWS.  Hard throwers like Kris Benson and Ryan Mills got lit up in CWS.  

I had this discussion with my 2017 of what makes a good MLB pitcher.  And after watching good pitching it seems movement and deception are a must.  Also having the ability to go from 94 mph to 78 mph on various pitches is a bonus.  Greg Maddox showed what movement and location can do for you.  

lionbaseball posted:
hsbaseball101 posted:
fenwaysouth posted:

What is amazing to me is that these 95+mph get hit and get hit hard some times.  Until the NCAA tournament starts, I'm mostly watching SEC, ACC because that is what is offered in my TV area.   FInding an ACC or SEC player hitting under .300 is almost non-existent on these teams.  Velocity is King, but the King gets hit really hard unless he's got 2 or 3 other pitches to keep those talented SEC and ACC .300 hitters guessing.

Most of these fireballers have some funky mechanics.  They're often too open and show the ball too early.  There's so many 90's throwers not even getting drafted these days.  In the past if you touched 90 you'd get drafted, even if it's in the final rounds.  Mechanics were more fluid in the past.  Now kids look like they're muscling the ball.  But velocity has never been king in the CWS.  Hard throwers like Kris Benson and Ryan Mills got lit up in CWS.  

I had this discussion with my 2017 of what makes a good MLB pitcher.  And after watching good pitching it seems movement and deception are a must.  Also having the ability to go from 94 mph to 78 mph on various pitches is a bonus.  Greg Maddox showed what movement and location can do for you.  

Agreed - location, changing speed/deception and having the command to throw any pitch in any count are key.  But in the postseason, it's my opinion that power arms win.  

Guys like Maddux and Glavine are more 'pitch to contact' type guys so you could typically bunt and move runners and generate some runs against them. Guys like Smoltz, Clemens, Randy Johnson, Schilling were tough to beat because even if you had runner on, they could reach back and get strikeouts when they had to. In my opinion, that's where plus velo gives you the advantage - swing and miss stuff!

hshuler posted:
Shoveit4Ks posted:

Disclaimer: My kid is in college and we thought about the draft last year and had a number to go. He did not get drafted.  We are very happy he is in college.

I suspect this 2014 article has been posted previously but it is an interesting read, especially if you don't know the stats and are being courted by MLB teams or facing upcoming draft vs college decisions.

http://www.numberfire.com/mlb/...han-high-school-ones

As it has been said before, you are a commodity unless you are getting a big a$$ check out of high school. Even then, there is a ratio somewhere that allows them to write you off when you aren't producing. Your son is competing with Latin players who are trying to survive/change their family tree, not just chasing the dream of playing pro ball vs attend college and join the workforce. 

All that being said, IF my son would have gotten his $$, i would have let him chase his dream, silly huh? Sorry for highjacking the thread.

 

Not silly at all. I think it just depends on the kid/situation. For some it makes perfect sense to go through pro route and for others the college route is best.  

I think the parent and athlete would need to have a serious and pros and cons discussion to see what's best route for the kid...but the decision would be the athlete's and not the parent's, in my opinion. 

Excellent topic & conversation here. Let me add a bit. Absolutely true: If you are a upper end pick you will get every opportunity to prove you can't play. These organizations want to justify their picks & the $$ they spent. However, even if you are an "organizational player," or "roster filler," you will get a legitimate shot in most cases. In short, if you can really play, they will not bury you. These Managers want to win in MiLB also. Certainly more difficult for a position player buried behind a first round pick somewhere. Much more opportunity as a pitcher / catcher to actually make it.

Having said that, MiLB is a brutal, tough road. No real concept of team. Everyone is trying to get to the next level, including the coaching staff. Very little instruction for the "non prospects," especially. You had better be able to make adjustments & figure it out on your own, in a hurry. The travel is just hard to describe. Bad food options at the lower levels. It's like being thrown into a shark tank.

If it is even close, I would push for a solid D1 school over this road all day long. Exceptions for big $$ 1st round types who are also ready emotionally to haul the MiLB Road. It will shred you if you are not prepared. These D1 major programs now are just off the charts & the good ones arrive at MLB about the same time as those who signed out of HS anyway. 

hshuler posted:

Obviously, each situation is different but I know of a kid who signed with an ACC school and was also a high draft pick. He got the money that he said it would take for him to sign but his mom says the kid really regrets not going to college. 

Now again, each situation is different but a lot of kids aren't mature enough at 17/18/19 to handle baseball as a full-time job. 

Physically and mentally. They're competing mostly against players three years older than them. Think about what a kid looks like after senior year of high school versus junior year of college. For my son (not that he turned pro) was 6'1" 170 versus 6'2" 195. Plus he wasn't an idiot anymore. He had been away from home for three years.

Last edited by RJM
TPM posted:
hshuler posted:

Obviously, each situation is different but I know of a kid who signed with an ACC school and was also a high draft pick. He got the money that he said it would take for him to sign but his mom says the kid really regrets not going to college. 

Now again, each situation is different but a lot of kids aren't mature enough at 17/18/19 to handle baseball as a full-time job. 

I know of someone who got the money they said it would take to sign, a million+.

Mom said he should have gone to college. That just tells me a lot right there.

It also depends on the family. A family with a six figure income is going to see the world different,y than a family with a 40k income.

RJM posted:

The myth of Maddux and Glavine as soft tossers.

"Early in his career with the Cubs, Maddux threw a lot harder -- around 91-92 mph with a good curve and changeup. When Glavine first started in the majors, he threw around 93-94 mph with a good breaking ball and changeup."

http://static.espn.go.com/mlb/...nn_tony/1369978.html

Good point - I was referring to the Braves playoff runs when both were crafty vets. :-)

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