Originally Posted by younggun:
I will agree that there is a LOT of mph inflation, especially with general population. I know of at least 3 occasions this past spring in son's senior year we heard so and so throws 90 or 92 or whatever. When we played the team, the kid was 86-88. Now I'm not saying that he never hit 90 one time. The way I look at it, if you can't be pretty consistent at the 90mph (like maybe 4 out of 10 pitches), I'm not sure I would say you throw 90. This is just my personal opinion. I have kids that have been verified by PG as (insert number)mph. When I saw them pitch in high school, they were a couple mph below that threshold. Maybe kids get a little more jacked up when throwing at a PG event because the competition is stiffer or the stage is bigger. I could see adrenaline accounting for a 1-2 mph bump, but not really 4-5. It is interesting when you look at a lot of pitcher's profiles on PG, it will show an avg mph and then a peak velocity that is 3-5 mph higher. Some pitcher's also have a large variation in their avg velo, like 83-88 mph. My son always tended to be more like 86-88, 88-90 or 82-84 when younger. I just always thought that was interesting and never really knew what to make of that or if it even mattered.
I hypothesize that large variation in velocity has to do with a pitcher who consciously tends to vary the FB velocity either on command or just randomly as their approach to any particular batter. Other pitchers in an effort to keep their arm speed consistent will tend have a narrower range of variation. And another factor may be just the athleticism of the pitcher that affects their ability to stay consistent.
Like your son, my son's variation (where he sat) was the more narrow and within a 3mph range through his HS pitching. As a Senior his recorded velocities were sitting at 90-92 and on rare occasions would touch 93 and on some cold mornings or nights his velocity might only range 88-90. A couple of times I ask him after pitching in a game, as I was always concerned for his arm, as to how hard he felt he was throwing, being a two-way player (e.g. 80%, 90%, 100% or what) and he always said it was something less that 100% to maintain command. Though he couldn't put such a number to it, from his description would indicate it was something between 90 and 95%. I do think he could have thrown 2 or 3 mph harder, but at the sacrifice of command.
I never did have a radar gun, though I thought about it. But at son's HS games in his JR and SR years, there were quite a few scouts out at the games. And there were quite a few prospects besides my son, so I would find my way behind the scouts and peak at their radar guns as they all lifted their guns in unison with each pitcher's pitch.
A breakdown of mechanics could certainly change a pitcher's velocity. Pitching at these high velocities is very physical and I would think the being so physical, a drop in mechanics and/or velocity can simply be the result of a bad night sleep or some other distraction. So, there are variables that can affect velocities from game to game.
