Velocitys I found

My kid hit 93 a few times in HS, but his PG was 86.  So there's that.  All kids don't use PG events, they are seen in other ways.  My kid only threw in one game in one PG tourney - a CG shutout, so he wasn't airing it out.

So, just because PG says they are only hitting 80s doesn't mean their D1 scout didn't see them throw 90+ somewhere else.

Why pitch all summer for some travel team if you're throwing 90+?  Just make sure your top teams see you and rest the arm.

This is from a year-and-a-half ago, but I found comparable numbers, though I didn't do NAIA or JC: 

http://community.hsbaseballweb...r-at-certain-schools

I thought what PGStaff -- who has more and better data than anyone else -- said on the thread about "Minimum Velocity" was interesting:

PGStaff posted:

If there are approximately 300 right hand pitchers in the PG database that have been 90 or better, I'm guessing there is another 50 or more  that aren't in the database.  That is in any given class there could be as many as 350 or more RHPs at 90 or better. 

We all know there are 300 D1 teams. I'd guess there are 1000 or more RHPs recruited by D1s each year. 

SultanofSwat posted:

My kid hit 93 a few times in HS, but his PG was 86.  So there's that.  All kids don't use PG events, they are seen in other ways.  My kid only threw in one game in one PG tourney - a CG shutout, so he wasn't airing it out.

So, just because PG says they are only hitting 80s doesn't mean their D1 scout didn't see them throw 90+ somewhere else.

Why pitch all summer for some travel team if you're throwing 90+?  Just make sure your top teams see you and rest the arm.

I get that, that's why I said there are outliers that skewed the data but all teams I took data for have more than 5 pitchers with velocities recorded and some teams had 10 or more. It's hard to believe a majority of those were in the same situation. Plus many of the kids I checked had multiple readings recorded. Some with 10 or more velocity recordings. 

My kid went to a very late D1 camp, and the guy told him at the end.. "look 12 of you [juniors] hit 90 today, why should I pick you?"  This was for his LAST pitcher slot.

I think you are going to find that most top D1s have freshmen RHP that show up hitting 90.

Mine went to a mid D1 and 3 of them from his incoming class had hit 90. One was 96 or 97 I think.

SultanofSwat posted:

My kid went to a very late D1 camp, and the guy told him at the end.. "look 12 of you [juniors] hit 90 today, why should I pick you?"  This was for his LAST pitcher slot.

I think you are going to find that most top D1s have freshmen RHP that show up hitting 90.

I think all of the top D1's will. I said these aren't top D1's. none of them are from big conferences or top programs. All are mid level smaller D1's. Most are from the OVC. 

Scotty....interesting stuff. Thanks for compiling and thanks for the data!

Thanks Scotty.  My son is a rising uncommitted Senior RHP. He has done at least 2-3 PG tournaments each summer since 9th grade. We don’t record velo in high school ball...so PG is our only record. He has consistently added 7mph each summer. All I’m hoping for this summer is 2mph! I know I know there is more to pitching than velo.....but as a dad, who has been on this journey with him since he was 8, I think hitting 90 will be a magical moment.  I WILL not discuss this with him, I don’t want him to have any extra pressure. 

We've all heard that joke about the two guys running away from the bear, right?

Well remember this:  Your son doesn't have to be above average.  He only has to be better than the kid who would otherwise be the last recruited arm.  So he can be below average and still get recruited.

BUT, if he's the last guy in the door, he may not get a big %.

AND don't be surprised if the deciding factor, when viewing all sorts of guys with similar MPH numbers, is spin rate.  Everyone has always been interested in whether a kid "can spin it," as the saying goes.  But now, more and more, there's hard data available to measure that.

I think you're right on with the spin rate. We've all seen kids in HS who top out around 85mph, but are virtually unhittable because of their mastery of a variety of breaking pitches. There is one kid on my 2018's team, a LHP, who has a funky tailing fastball(natch) and one of the most viscous breaking curveballs you've ever seen...the kind that has LH hitters jumping out of the batter's box on strikes.

 Still, I'm sure there pitchers with great spin rates who still can't pitch.