quote:
Originally posted by jonaqui:
In repsponse to prospectwire, your logic really doesn't hold up to scrutiny.
Anybody that knows a thing about sprinting will tell you that by 30 yards, you pretty much know how fast someone is. Sure, there are athletes that rely more on acceleration, but the difference between 2 athletes with equal 30 yard times by 60, 90, or even 110 yards will be marginal. Your example of a 5 yard dash predicting a 100 doesn't hold water, as a 5 yard dash is not really sprinting, whereas a 30 is.
In addition, you state that true speed is measured in getting doubles and triples and thus a 60 is more illustrative of an athletes speed. Again, you don't account for the fact that an athlete running bases--with turns--goes through a deceleration and re-acceleration with each turn. So your argument about doubles and triples only speaks more to the need for an athlete's ability to accelerate.
In my opinion, a 60 doesn't tell you anything that a 30 wouldn't, and it actually distorts the picture by testing a distance that doesn't matter. If you want to test how fast a kid is at getting doubles or triples, test them on the basepaths, not a straight line.
Thanks for your response. I love a good discussion - everyone is to benefit.
I really think you need to re-read my post. Your putting words in my mouth in a few areas. I never said anything about true speed being measured by doubles and triples, I stated it was one of the uses of speed in the game of baseball on top of other things. And you're taking my "exaggeration example" just for the sake of me trying to prove a point, and trying to make it hold weight as a stand alone example.
I agree with you 100%, however, that you rarely run 60 yards in a straight line in baseball. I understand the logic of baseball-specific testing, and I'm all for it. But you can't replace the 60 at this point.
But you'll have to introduce me to these people that "know anything about sprinting", because apparently, I'm not one of them. I'd tell these people that think that by 30 yards "you pretty much" know how fast someone is, that they will soon be out of a job in the scouting business if that is their standard. "Pretty much" is not precise, it is not accurate, and it can be the difference between a 1st rounder and a 5th rounder, a 5th rounder and a 15th rounder, and between millions of dollars. If you attended a showcase and got timed for the 60 and you looked at the board and it said "Pretty much a 7.0", you'd ask for your money back I hope.
You have to understand, there isn't much debating in that speed is seen greatest over time. Top speed that is. This is just physics. Once you hit your top speed, you may pass a guy over the course of a 60 yard dash, who got a quick jump on you, and you may finish 3 feet ahead of him. Over 30 yards, you may catch up enough only to tie. Now you have two players over the course of a 30 yard dash that have the same 30 yard time because Player B didnt have enough time to pass the quick-starting player A over the short course of 30 yards. If he had 60, you would have seen the difference in RAW SPEED, which is really what we are trying to test here. How much raw speed does the kid have? A coach can coach him up on the rest such as turns and jumps.
Yes, you are sprinting at 30 yard distances. But the athlete with a poor jump needs time to make up that distance. The 60 yard dash is a test of raw speed, not acceleration, not turns. If you want to test acceleration, and acceleration on a turn, hey, I'm all for that. As I said, I'm all for the 30 as an opportunity to supplement the 60. The more the better.
Finally there are 3 reasons why the 60 is most important for measuring raw speed, not acceleration, here they are:
1) Speed is greatest seen over time. This has been discussed above.
2) It's been done this way for a long time. People like making comparisons to other players in baseball from their scouting experience for projection purposes. If you make the standard distance such as a 30 yard dash, it will take some time for everyone to adjust.
3) Finally, something called limiting your variables. If you run from home to 2nd, you have more variables in there such as turns. How big was his turn? When did he start it? Maybe one guy is way faster than another guy but he takes a huge turn, or starts his turn too early. Well, now we have two speed times that are identical and give us no information about the prospect's speed because we have to take turns into consideration. Players can be coached on turns, they can't be coached on raw talent, and thats what we are out to find. He can be coached on these things; to make better turns, to get better jumps. But when you run in a straight line, you are limiting your variables and getting real raw speed.
Would I like to see a 30 yard dash implemented? Yes. Would I like to see more baserunning times implemented? Yes. I love information overkill.
But if you ask me once again what is the most important distance to run I'll tell you the 60 yard dash can not be replaced for all of the reasons outlined above.