What does the college fall semester look like?

One more, then I really need to stop reading C-19 articles for a while...   We can play dueling experts / citations all day (and will soon get this thread shut down if we do).  But I happened to see this article this morning in a link on the Hopkins site:

https://www.washingtonpost.com...s-fatality-immunity/

The above is by academics from the U of Florida and Johns Hopkins.  They argue that the California data Pedaldad references above is just one more inconclusive data point: "If the fatality rate were truly only 0.1 percent, that implies that all 8 million people in New York City have already been infected — which seems unlikely. That supposition is also contradicted by the New York antibody test results, which suggest that fatality rates there are closer to 0.5 or 1 percent."  (For reference, 0.5 percent would be ~5x the fatality rate for seasonal flu.)  

My point is not "my stats are better than your stats."  Rather, I sincerely believe we won't know the truth about the current situation for at least several years.  

Last note:  Trump sent a tweet a couple of days ago attacking Sweden's approach and arguing that the U.S. shutdowns were the right thing to do.  Do you need anything further to prove we're in a situation of radical uncertainty...?

I find it interesting that nobody (that I am aware) has published a study on the correlation of new COVID-19 cases with the dramatic increase in testing. Instead the media is quick to proclaim "people are not doing their part in abiding by social-distancing!"

The article on the prison in TN that Pedaldad posted could be an example of exactly that. Unfortunately, a positive test result doesn't tell you how far along an infected person is in the disease progression timeline. 

So is it an outbreak? Or is it the virus is very mild for the majority of people (which we know to be true based on data) and much more widespread than what people imagine?

How ironic is it the MLB (via the as of yet unreleased Stanford report) may be just be paving the way back to normalcy in our country??!!

I try not to pay attention to his tweets. There are going to be experts taking many different positions on what was right and wrong. Maybe Sweden was right, maybe not. Some facts right now can’t be disputed. One is the hospitals are not currently overwhelmed and most never were. 

What is wrong with letting those who want to start resuming regular activities do so while keeping a close eye on infection increases? Those who do not want to don’t have to. 

@Chico Escuela posted:

One more, then I really need to stop reading C-19 articles for a while...   We can play dueling experts / citations all day (and will soon get this thread shut down if we do).  But I happened to see this article this morning in a link on the Hopkins site:

https://www.washingtonpost.com...s-fatality-immunity/

The above is by academics from the U of Florida and Johns Hopkins.  They argue that the California data Pedaldad references above is just one more inconclusive data point: "If the fatality rate were truly only 0.1 percent, that implies that all 8 million people in New York City have already been infected — which seems unlikely. That supposition is also contradicted by the New York antibody test results, which suggest that fatality rates there are closer to 0.5 or 1 percent."  (For reference, 0.5 percent would be ~5x the fatality rate for seasonal flu.)  

My point is not "my stats are better than your stats."  Rather, I sincerely believe we won't know the truth about the current situation for at least several years.  

Last note:  Trump sent a tweet a couple of days ago attacking Sweden's approach and arguing that the U.S. shutdowns were the right thing to do.  Do you need anything further to prove we're in a situation of radical uncertainty...?

This is all very political.

I can't imagine an academic believing NYC is a good representation of the country or world in general. Clearly a lot of factors are involved. You can't calculate a general death rate in a single, unique geographic area.

What I find more interesting is that the death rate does indeed seem very high in western nations with decent heath care. You probably won't see that kind of death rate in a country like India. The demographic in the U.S. most likely to die has probably died-off long ago in countries like India and therefore won't become a statistic for COVID-19.

As far as Trump's tweet. Do you honestly believe he thinks Sweden chose the wrong path? Just like he voiced his opinion on Georgia's governor's decision to re-open.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

If I lived in that town I’d personally rather have a letter that the students were coming back in town rather than one saying they weren’t and I’d have to close my business permanently or move to a new town to find a new job. 

I agree 100% with that.  But, I hope that Purdue is telling their town that too, not just students and their parents; it's the people who live there who are higher-risk than the students, those are the ones who will be more impacted by the virus, filling up hospitals, etc. 

Sadly, this whole thing is not just about what governments do or don't do, it's about convincing ordinary people what they are willing to do.  If a restaurant opens but no-one chooses to eat there, they won't stay in business; conversely, if a restaurant chooses to remain closed, then you can't eat there even if you want to. 

So you can't just say, "let those who want to go about their ordinary lives to do so," because our lives are intertwined.  If meat processors are sick and shut down, you won't have bacon, unless you have your own pig to kill.  We may not agree on everything, but we do have to understand that we are all in this together, just like the sappy t.v. commercials say.  We tend to live in echo chambers, one reason I like this board is that it is not that (by a long shot).  I appreciate everyone's posts and references.

From what I am seeing here...I've eaten at a restaurant 3 times since they opened Friday...people are going and the waitstaff is happy to be back.

@baseballhs posted:

From what I am seeing here...I've eaten at a restaurant 3 times since they opened Friday...people are going and the waitstaff is happy to be back.

 

Georgia?  Are they spacing out the tables and/or doing any other stuff to keep some distance?  Servers wearing masks?

Texas.  One place had every other table marked off.  Wore masks to the table and when leaving, but not while at the table.  The other only had the patio open, with tables spaced, no masks.

@baseballhs posted:

Texas.  One place had every other table marked off.  Wore masks to the table and when leaving, but not while at the table.  The other only had the patio open, with tables spaced, no masks.

Texas also. Went to a Carrabbas Friday night.  About a third of the tables were open for customers, other 2/3 and the bar area seating closed.  All servers, managers, cooks wore surgical masks.

Tough on the servers, they only got one table to work, two at most. Woman we talked to was so happy to be able to work again. 

In South Carolina, starting tomorrow we can eat outside and even under tents but still no eating indoors.  Outside dining tables have to be 8 feet apart.  Some have ordered large tents and AC to put in parking lot and say they will be full blast tomorrow.

There are some PG regionals events scheduled for the week after mother's day here.

@JCG posted:

Georgia?  Are they spacing out the tables and/or doing any other stuff to keep some distance?  Servers wearing masks?

GA has limited dining inside.  Seating is every other or every third table at restaurants doing inside dining, most are not yet.  Take-out is killing it in GA, as is Waffle House.  My son went to bowling alley with a friend last night and said they might have just gone alone.  Seating on either side of the lanes, balls already in ball return, etc...new normal.

@Chico Escuela posted:

Pedaldad, that was a well argued, data-driven post--kudos for that.  But I take issue with the characterization that "[t]hose of us in medicine that understand data" share your conclusions.  I am not a doctor.  Two family members are--and both teach at major medical schools.  Both have shared very different opinions with me than yours.  To say opinions differ about the data is fair; to imply everyone with expertise shares your view is not at all.  See, for example, Fauci, Birx and the heads of most state public health agencies.  

Chico this is a discourse the media and politicians are not having (Fauci, Birx, and Redfield are politicians that also happen to have been physicians at one time), that is the problem.  Dems want lockdowns to continue because it helps them in November,  Republicans want the economy to take off because it helps them in November.  None carry about the lives of the people.

I also happen to be a physician employed at one of our Country's largest medical schools and train residents. Within my own department there are  physicians with varying opinions.   Those most in favor of continued restrictions are way to the left politically.  Those that might say C-19 is "overblown" are way to the right.  This is serious, but it's time to start getting back.  The curve has been flattened, we are not seeing increases in GA.  Additionally when I look at the differences between GA and OH, my old home state, it tells me lockdowns have meant little.

OH has 11.5 million and is approaching 1050 deaths.  GA has 10.6 million and is approaching 1180 deaths.  Ohio was one of the first to lockdown and very restrictive.  GA was the last to lockdown and first to start the open, yet our numbers have flattened better than OH's. In GA we were still able to do take-out, elective surgeries at physician/institutional discretion, go to the public parks, etc.

Metro ATL is bigger than Metro Columbus, Cleveland, and Cinci combined.  Atlanta's Hartsfeld-Jackson is the busiest Airport in the country.  We know minorities are hit harder, especially African Americans, and GA population is 1/3  African American, OH's African American population is only 1/8.  These things don't add up to lockdowns working.  We know the data points on the lockdowns, it is harming people in some cases irrevocably.

Pedaldad, if you aren't exaggerating when you say the medical professionals you know are split on C-19 according to their political leanings, then that's the most frightening thing I have heard in a while.  Although maybe more frightening than surprising...

Dismissing Fauci. et al. as "politicians" just isn't reasonable though.  For one, anybody in public health administration is going to be involved in politics.  If that disqualifies them, then by definition you aren't going to listen to anyone in a position to directly affect relevant policies.  More importantly, I looked up Fauci's C.V.  He publishes regularly, although many of those articles admittedly aren't research.  It looks to me like he has a medical patent and a research paper at least as recently as 2015, and a long list preceding that.  I'm not going to take the time to look up Birx and Redfield, but I expect their records look similar.  So let's agree Fauci isn't a contender for a Nobel.  To dismiss him and others as  "politicians that also happen to have been physicians at one time" seems mighty unreasonable.

Folks in my neck of the woods are clearly tired of staying home and are starting to congregate in parks, etc. in ways that violate the relevant orders, which end May 8.  The good news is that we're going to have a lot of new data by the time the fall semester begins.  I am still convinced social distancing is going to be largely ineffective on a residential college campus (no matter what rules schools try to put in place), so I hope students will be able to return to something close to normal life by late August.

What’s seems unreasonable to you seems blatantly obvious to others.  This has all been hashed out repeatedly. Majority of colleges here have already announced they are on campus. It is what it is.

@baseballhs posted:

What’s seems unreasonable to you seems blatantly obvious to others.  This has all been hashed out repeatedly. Majority of colleges here have already announced they are on campus. It is what it is.

And good morning to you also. 

Do you have a link to support your "majority of colleges" claim?  That would be news to me (and I teach at a state U.).

Searchable list of colleges' plans for fall as announced to date (you may have to register, but there is no charge to access the article):

https://www.chronicle.com/arti...d=wcontentgrid_hp_1b

Looks like all hope to have students on campus, although many are leaving specifics unsettled for now about what that will look like; quite a few have yet to announce.

@Chico Escuela posted:

And good morning to you also. 

Do you have a link to support your "majority of colleges" claim?  That would be news to me (and I teach at a state U.).

My point is that it is very hard for anyone to see beyond their own point of view. Myself included. Was not meaning to come across rude.  It's just as hard as it is to see that side, it's hard for others to see yours.  I referenced colleges here. I’m in Texas.  Add TCU to this list as well.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/w...classes-in-fall/amp/

@Chico Escuela posted:

Searchable list of colleges' plans for fall as announced to date (you may have to register, but there is no charge to access the article):

https://www.chronicle.com/arti...d=wcontentgrid_hp_1b

Looks like all hope to have students on campus, although many are leaving specifics unsettled for now about what that will look like; quite a few have yet to announce.

I understand why colleges are making plans and being optimistic that in-person education takes place in the fall. It's a function of their own economic viability and, in many instances, survival. The prospects of shutting down for the Fall semester has many schools contemplating their own demise.

And while I don't fault them for being optimistic, the possibility (probability) of a rebound or second wave remains high, particularly with some pretending they can return to normal. When/if that happens, it will be interesting to see how many parents are willing to let their kids back to college and dorm life, not to mention how many faculty (many of whom are older and more vulnerable) will accept return to a contagion-rich environment like a college campus. 

We are uncharted territory, somewhat, but history can offer us some valuable guidance. In this article, a UNC Chapel Hill history professor recounts what happened with the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic: “What gives me pause when I look back at 1918 is I think about the second wave,” Leloudis said. “People did social distancing and there was this sense of ‘that’s behind us and we can all move on’ and then the second wave hit and it was just devastating.”  https://www.charlotteobserver....rticle242407481.html

Hoping those lessons of history are not a forecast for recurrence in the Summer and Fall of 2020. The warnings from public health experts and epidemiologists will appear far less "political" in the aftermath.

@baseballhs posted:

What’s seems unreasonable to you seems blatantly obvious to others.  This has all been hashed out repeatedly. Majority of colleges here have already announced they are on campus. It is what it is.

College are announcing what they hope to do. I hope they can do it too (particularly since we have a $600 a month lease on an apartment at college town). I think they will have to get kids on campus in some way to keep them paying tuition, but not sure it will be easy.

In Iowa, the governor opened 77 of our counties that have low virus counts — we have 25 cases and opened. We are 15 minutes from the state capitol, which is closed with 1,661 cases. While the state is allowing restaurants to open only three in town have opened and they are very small (one said to me she rarely has 10 customers at a time anyway). I would feel comfortable going there, but most of the big restaurants are staying closed. One of our 32 churches had in person services over the weekend.

We are all pretty sure that the people in Des Moines who are sick of being stuck at home will head south. We can and will wait to get out.

I meet with local law enforcement twice a week to get updated on the situation. Their advice is the best and the same we see on other topics on this site. You can only control what you do, you can't control what others do.

I'm staying home as much as I can.

The key word in all of this is "hope".  I hope colleges will go back too.  I guess the advantage of re-opening now, before cases have started declining, is that by July we will know better what is going to come of it, before schools and colleges re-start.

I'm all for learning from history, and I'm sure there will be another surge in the fall; there was in 2008-9 as well, and that was after a vaccine was available.  But so many things were different in 1918, starting with medical knowledge, that I'm not sure direct parallels can be drawn. 

But in the interest of looking at more history, here's some more history about universities, epidemics, and quarantines:

https://www.bestcolleges.com/b...ation-and-pandemics/

From random google searches, apparently in 1918/19, students had arrived on campus and were quarantined there (i.e. they didn't send them home).  It seems that at UNC-Chapel Hill 3 students (out of around 1000) died, at Yale 3 students (out of around 2600) died, at Elon University 3 students (out of 400) died.  Lots of students got sick all at once, so it was mostl over by Thanksgiving; in most cases, more people died in the same cities outside of campus, than on campus.  Young adults were among the most susceptible, and many soldiers died in military camps.  I did not see any info about professors, although in some cases they talked about nurses dying, and at UNC the president of the university died, as did his successor.

Interestingly, the 1918 influenza didn't really affect baseball, because they played the World Series early in 1918 because of the war, and the second wave of flu hit just afterward.  College football did shut down in the fall most places.   (https://www.swtimes.com/sports...918-war-and-pandemic)

I'm not worried about kids going back to in-person classes so much as i am about moving them into the dorms. Not a lot of social distancing in those tiny spaces.

Everyone is sick of staying home. However, if the way that things are going continue, and if you don't stay home, schools are not going to open by August.  

The list presented about "possible openings" are presented as such because most have no idea what is going to be in 3,4 months, let alone in June.  However, deposits were due for many universities and full tuition is due shortly and you can't operate without that.  It's the same way with playing in tournaments this summer, they really need to let you think that it's gonna happen. They have employees that need to work and be paid. And more importantly, will coaches and scouts be there to watch? 

I don't mean to be negative, but the numbers projected don't look promising. You still need a lot more testing and contact tracing has to be put in place.

My version of staying home is probably different than most, but if people want to send their kids off to school this fall, the sacrifice now should be staying as close to home as you can and limiting contact.

JMO

Yes..... i don’t believe in a thing you said TPM. In fact the exact opposite and the numbers support it. Cower at home if you must but the rest of us need to get out and around each other to make any progress. We have lost our collective minds 

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

Yes..... i don’t believe in a thing you said TPM. In fact the exact opposite and the numbers support it. Cower at home if you must but the rest of us need to get out and around each other to make any progress. We have lost our collective minds 

You, as I, are entitled to our opinion. 

Can we come back to discuss in the fall?

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

Yes..... i don’t believe in a thing you said TPM. In fact the exact opposite and the numbers support it. Cower at home if you must but the rest of us need to get out and around each other to make any progress. We have lost our collective minds 

I realize written comments can sound harsher than intended.  And I'd like to think that's the case in your post above.  Hard to imagine you'd speak that way to a friend or neighbor you were dealing with in person.  

@Pedaldad posted:

 

OH has 11.5 million and is approaching 1050 deaths.  GA has 10.6 million and is approaching 1180 deaths.  Ohio was one of the first to lockdown and very restrictive.  GA was the last to lockdown and first to start the open, yet our numbers have flattened better than OH's. In GA we were still able to do take-out, elective surgeries at physician/institutional discretion, go to the public parks, etc.

Metro ATL is bigger than Metro Columbus, Cleveland, and Cinci combined.  Atlanta's Hartsfeld-Jackson is the busiest Airport in the country.  We know minorities are hit harder, especially African Americans, and GA population is 1/3  African American, OH's African American population is only 1/8.  These things don't add up to lockdowns working.  We know the data points on the lockdowns, it is harming people in some cases irrevocably.

I don't think we can know from comparing Georgia and Ohio right now whether "lockdowns" work or don't work because of the differences between the two states that you mention (and probably others).  Perhaps Georgia's numbers would have been astronomically higher if metropolitan Atlanta hadn't effectively shut down as it did, even before Governor Kemp's shelter in place order. 

Georgia's overall numbers have plateaued (for the moment), but they haven't started falling yet.  There is a lag in the reporting on the Department of Public Health's website by as much as a week, so data within the last week isn't final yet.  I suspect as metro Atlanta starts to get a handle on things (at least in the short term), any decreases there are being offset by increases in the surrounding rural areas.  Plenty of poultry plant communities all over Georgia that could still be (perhaps already are being) affected by this.  Hall County seems to be hit pretty hard, for example.

One thing not discussed about sheltering in place is the effect it has on the immune system. You build up immunities crossing paths with all the germs you encounter each day in a normal life. After sheltering in place for two or three months people will have degraded their immune systems making them more susceptible to COVID along with other illnesses and diseases. Getting out in the fresh air while distancing is not exposure to the elements.

Everyone should be outside now. A lot. (whether you want to be outside alone or go out is up to you). Exercise and be outside. 

Chico possibly your are correct but I’ve said this exact statement to friends and neighbors. RJM kinda hits on my point. In the end if 300k die, which would be way more than any model, that would represent exactly .0008% of the us population. I can’t reconcile 30 million  out of work and destroying the education system, economy, etc over that. Not to mention the death toll via unemployment. Sorry, just how I feel. 

The quickest way back to school this fall is to open the country. You may not agree but that is a FACT.

That is the quickest way to allow the virus to move on and anything short of that will only delay it longer.

I’ve mentioned this term on here before: end game.

Regardless what your opinion may be, it must have a conclusion, so what is it?

1. Remain locked up and wait for better treatments and/or vaccine, neither of which may happen or

2. Allow the virus move through the population as rapidly as possible, and because of the speed at which in infects, perhaps it will bypass elderly and at-risk folks who remain quarantined for a period longer than it takes to achieve herd mmunity.

Given the above, which do you think will get kids back to school the soonest? Which end game has a definite conclusion?

And what of these news reports of some states having more infections? It’s because we’ve already delayed it for way to long, did you really think it was going to go away? What did you think was going to happen? We have 330+ million people in this country! It’s been almost two months; I’m pretty sure we’d have been in much better shape now if we had focused on the hotspots and left the rest of the country alone.

Bingo!!!!!! We have a winner. I couldn’t have said it better . 1000% correct 

@Chico Escuela posted:

I realize written comments can sound harsher than intended.  And I'd like to think that's the case in your post above.  Hard to imagine you'd speak that way to a friend or neighbor you were dealing with in person.  

Thank you Chico Escuela, I realize that there are a lot of people out there that are angry these days, and it's easier to strike back when no one knows who you are.

Of course I didn't mean to stay inside and hide. Of course everyone should be out. 

And I didn't mean distancing yourself from other people. The phrase "Stay Home" at this point, should mean for a lot of people staying close to your geographical home.  

@ABSORBER posted:

1. Remain locked up and wait for better treatments and/or vaccine, neither of which may happen or

Well, this is the crucial question.  Either treatments and/or vaccine will happen, or they won't.  If treatments appear, then the people who said "open up RIGHT NOW and too bad for those 300,000 people" will have been wrong.  If they don't, then those people will be right.

I've said before many times, every day there are new discoveries for treatments.  Already we know a lot more than we did a month ago.  In June, we will know a lot more than we do now.  We now know more about the need to keep nursing homes and meat factories safe.  I would rather than the virus came around me and my loved ones in July than now.

@anotherparent posted:

Well, this is the crucial question.  Either treatments and/or vaccine will happen, or they won't.  If treatments appear, then the people who said "open up RIGHT NOW and too bad for those 300,000 people" will have been wrong.  If they don't, then those people will be right.

I've said before many times, every day there are new discoveries for treatments.  Already we know a lot more than we did a month ago.  In June, we will know a lot more than we do now.  We now know more about the need to keep nursing homes and meat factories safe.  I would rather than the virus came around me and my loved ones in July than now.

Everyone knew to quarantine nursing homes before this thing arrived here in the U.S. We knew about the virus target demographic because of China and Italy. And everyone knew to quarantine outbreaks which would of course cover any factory-type facility or place that has large numbers of workers in close proximity to one another.

It’s the the forced quarantine of the rest of the country most of us have problems with...

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

"that would represent exactly .0008% of the us population"

Actually, your math is way off: 0.0008 = 0.08%.

Hmmm last time I checked 300,000/350,000,000=.000857...... but ok maybe my calculator sucks or the new math concept is lost on me???? Thanks though 

@Fmr coach now Dad posted:

Hmmm last time I checked 300,000/350,000,000=.000857...... but ok maybe my calculator sucks or the new math concept is lost on me???? Thanks though 

Percentages are not a new math concept:

.001 = .1%

.01 = 1%

.1 = 10%

Math matters when we are making arguments based on statistical assumptions and risk.

This conversation is going the way most of the others have, which is to say I know people don't intend to get heated/political but it's understandably tough and eventually the discourse seems to devolve over time.  I will say that I know that everyone one here has an amazing shared interest and we all want to get to that place where we can return to that shared interest as soon as possible given our collective love for it.  Obviously HOW we get there is not collectively agreed on, hence the discourse breakdown.  Just a reminder to consider that as we delve into these discussions, which seem inevitable given the realities of our current landscape.  

On that note, two "food for thought" items.  One piece focuses on "Centralized Quarantine" which is much different than the far reaching lockdowns we are currently engaged in.  https://covid19.osinthk.org/2020/04/29/five-steps-to-eradicate-covid-19/.  From my POV, this makes a great deal of sense and seems to bridge the gap on some of the disagreements I've seen on this page and elsewhere.

The other is a current snapshot of Westchester, NY.  It's clear that in far reaching outbreak scenarios, if you can sustain a legitimate quarantine, you will reduce cases in 4-6 weeks significantly.  I certainly don't wish this were the reality, or believe we will have to sustain it once we further reduce the daily case load, but we now have clear evidence that it does work if properly maintained. 

To bring this all together, given these two items, I think we will see a return to school in many areas of the country come Fall.  

@TPM, I am sorry for the harsh language sent your way, since you and Chico both always have thoughtful posts even if I often disagree with them.  However, I do not personally think how close we stay at home will increase the chances that things will be able to restart in the Fall.  What staying at home does is decrease the rate of infection.  In this country, it seems that people will not do the extreme measures that would truly decrease the infections to such a small degree that it can be managed with the schemes that work in some countries.  My opinion is that the cases will probably just stay steady with only modest differences due to government policy.  Nobody will do Mardi Gras, a huge parade, or have a stadium full of people, but stay at home orders are really no longer being followed as they are.

For others that want to see a community with a real curve, just google "New Orleans coronavirus cases" and see what happened there.  There was a major peak in new cases April 2 that quickly shrunk, and now the case rate is fairly steady.  That was probably due to a combination of Mardi Gras earlier, and then the ramping of testing.