When Are You Really Committed?

Francis7 posted:

PA BASEBALL made a great post in another thread there they shared this information on committing:

D1 Recruits 

P5 - Freshman - Junior Year 
Top Mid Majors- Soph-Junior Year 
The Rest: Junior- September of Senior Year. 

D2/D3/JUCO- Junior year- Nov of Senior Year

Asking a question here - because I am not certain that I FULLY understand the process:

These are verbal commits since it's before the signing of the NLI, correct?  Related, and maybe I am just hearing and/or reading things incorrectly, it seems like verbal commitments are getting sketchy these days with kids changing their kids and coaches pulling out rugs - sometimes at the very last minute.  So, when are you really committed?

I guess it's better to have a verbal than nothing?  But, how much better is it?  If you have a verbal by the end of your soph year, that's great and exciting for the kid to add to his PG and social media profile.  But, is it really a commitment? And, while it has value, is the value that much greater than the value of not having another school pass on you because they thought you were already committed?

 

Yes.  Yes it is.

It's like being engaged with a wedding date.  Not all engagements make it to the wedding date.  Many that do, end in divorce.  But that's not a reason to not get married.

If you're hunk enough to be the bachelor, wait until NLI signing day.

Couple issues....1) kids are committing so early that we're bound to see more broken commitments (by one side or the other) than you used two.  2) kids are committing early...in some cases I think just to say they are committed, without really understanding what/who they are committing to.  

When my son was being recruited he knew that if he committed he was going to go to that school....there was no changing his mind.  That was a rule we made.   He was also going to stay at that school as long as the baseball program was operating....and wasn't going to transfer just because he wasn't getting the playing time he had hoped for.  To us a committment was just that...a committment and he was going to honor it as long as the program honored their end.  There was NEVER any guarantee of playing time....he knew that going in.   He's had so many kids come in since he's been there....find out in the fall that college baseball isn't easy and they aren't the stud that they were in HS...and they just take off and look for somewhere else to play.  Of all the kids that left, I think maybe 1 has actually ended up in a better situation for himself...the others are in no better position playing time wise than they would have been if they stayed.    I guess the biggest thing is, know the level of program you are committing to BEFORE you commit.  I understand that there are some very good kids committing early...but just because you are a HS freshman throwing 86 when you commit doesn't mean you'll be good enough 4 years later to play at a Power 5. 

GO44DAD - 20% of engagements are called off before the wedding.  Are there any stats on how many kids actually attend the program that they first committed to?  Related, in that other thread. RJM shared (IIRC?) that 50% of D1's transfer after the first year.  (I guess that's like the 50% divorce rate?) 

Personally - and I may be wrong because I often am! - I think that a lot of kids (and parents!) have this fairy tale notion in their head that "I'm going to commit after my soph year and then I will play at that school for the next 4 years."  But, in reality, it seems like that's the outlier rather than the norm.  More so, verbal commitments will change and/or not work out as planned - - and, even if they do, you probably won't be with that program for your entire college career. 

If I am not wrong here, shouldn't that be the message for people to better level set their expectations?

Buckeye 2015 posted:

kids are committing early...in some cases I think just to say they are committed, without really understanding what/who they are committing to.  

 

I believe this is true!  How many people back in the day got engaged and then married because all their friends were doing it and they didn't want to be left out - even though they were maybe not sure that they wanted to spend the rest of their life with the other person in their relationship at that time?  It's just social pressure.  Why should ball players be excluded from that pressure?  Social media makes it worse.  Kids want that commitment on their profile just to show that they are as good as the others who have committed.  Like the guy who will marry the first woman who will have him, these kids will commit way earlier than they should, just to say they are committed, and that's when the downstream mess starts.

Francis7 posted:

GO44DAD - 20% of engagements are called off before the wedding.  Are there any stats on how many kids actually attend the program that they first committed to?  Related, in that other thread. RJM shared (IIRC?) that 50% of D1's transfer after the first year.  (I guess that's like the 50% divorce rate?) 

Personally - and I may be wrong because I often am! - I think that a lot of kids (and parents!) have this fairy tale notion in their head that "I'm going to commit after my soph year and then I will play at that school for the next 4 years."  But, in reality, it seems like that's the outlier rather than the norm.  More so, verbal commitments will change and/or not work out as planned - - and, even if they do, you probably won't be with that program for your entire college career. 

If I am not wrong here, shouldn't that be the message for people to better level set their expectations?

I think you are just feeding back to me what I said in the marriage analogy.  Inserting the "fairy tale notion" in my opinion is the fairy tale.  No one in the circle of commits/being recruited that I know has a fairy tale notion as you described.  All are aware that there are risks.

Go44dad posted:

 No one in the circle of commits/being recruited that I know has a fairy tale notion as you described.  All are aware that there are risks.

 

I think (?) you travel in a higher and more aware\astute circle.  (That's a compliment, not a dig.)  And, I suspect that there's a larger circle out there of people not familiar with the process and the chutes and ladders nature of it, who sincerely believe that their kid will commit, sign, and graduate all with the same baseball program.  And, they think those who don't follow that path had something go wrong.

Francis7 posted:

Go44dad posted:

 No one in the circle of commits/being recruited that I know has a fairy tale notion as you described.  All are aware that there are risks.

 

I think (?) you travel in a higher and more aware\astute circle.  (That's a compliment, not a dig.)  And, I suspect that there's a larger circle out there of people not familiar with the process and the chutes and ladders nature of it, who sincerely believe that their kid will commit, sign, and graduate all with the same baseball program.  And, they think those who don't follow that path had something go wrong.

Gotta agree with this.  The group that doesn't understand is a lot bigger than the group that Go44dad hang out with     Heck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

Buckeye 2015 posted:

eck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

One of the first things that the coaches in my son's program tell parents and players is:  If they said they got a full ride, they're lying.  No one gets a full baseball scholarship.  A partial?  Maybe?  Some financial aid?  More than likely.  And, maybe some form of academic scholarship too.  But, a full ride from the baseball program?  It doesn't happen.

I can't prove a negative, but anyone that is being recruited sophomore year in high school will have some idea of the failure rate.  After that, I'm not sure what we are talking about.

I know kids that have decommitted/recommitted somewhere else because of coaching changes, because the school changed their mind 3 days before NLI signing and gave the money to someone else, because they committed early and didn't develop, because the academics were more difficult than they thought, school was too far away.  And some who just changed because it sounded better to them.  But all of them knew the verbal committing risks.

So Francis, let's say your kids a D1/P5 recruit and a sophomore, multiple schools are offering.  The perfect fit school/dream school offers more than you thought your kid would get.  Everything fits.  Would you let him verbally commit?  Or tell the head coach you will wait until November of Senior year/NLI signing day so please hold some of your scholarship budget back for him just in case?  Because 20% of engagements don't make it to marriage, or a respected guy on the internet chatboard told you 50% of freshman transfer.

Obviously I'm picking an outlier, but here is Vandy's 2021 class rn.  Think they are saving a spot for ya?

I can say for D3, Any Commitment made before they show up on campus is not real. In D3 there is no NLI. all of it is verbal. The coach does not know he has you until you show up on campus and attend the first baseball meeting. What many have talked about in terms of Playing time May be even more prevalent in D3. I know I have seen it in my sons old program. However they are able to hold onto most of those kids. They lost 3 in the 4 years I watched my son play due to transfers. But I cannot speak for other programs. 

Many kids come in thinking they will play right away. Heck its D3, most of the players are barely better than your average High school right? Not so. Many of the players in D3 were all conference-all state and the studs on their hs teams. Not many D3 ball players, get significant playing time all 4 years. Of course, D3 is a large tent and there are Large state schools down to tiny religious schools, so you mileage may very.  

Many of the D3 schools lose kids after the Fall Semester due to the challenge on keeping up with Academics. But that is a different story for a different thread. 

Go44dad posted:

So Francis, let's say your kids a D1/P5 recruit and a sophomore, multiple schools are offering.  The perfect fit school/dream school offers more than you thought your kid would get.  Everything fits.  Would you let him verbally commit?  Or tell the head coach you will wait until November of Senior year/NLI signing day so please hold some of your scholarship budget back for him just in case? 

 

 

Of course, you would say yes.  Not that he/we are ever going to be in THAT situation!  But, that's for the 1% kids.  The rest of us are living in the real world.  :-)

BishopLeftiesDad posted:

I can say for D3, Any Commitment made before they show up on campus is not real. In D3 there is no NLI. all of it is verbal. The coach does not know he has you until you show up on campus and attend the first baseball meeting. What many have talked about in terms of Playing time May be even more prevalent in D3. I know I have seen it in my sons old program. However they are able to hold onto most of those kids. They lost 3 in the 4 years I watched my son play due to transfers. But I cannot speak for other programs. 

Many kids come in thinking they will play right away. Heck its D3, most of the players are barely better than your average High school right? Not so. Many of the players in D3 were all conference-all state and the studs on their hs teams. Not many D3 ball players, get significant playing time all 4 years. Of course, D3 is a large tent and there are Large state schools down to tiny religious schools, so you mileage may very.  

Many of the D3 schools lose kids after the Fall Semester due to the challenge on keeping up with Academics. But that is a different story for a different thread. 

The other thing with D3 is roster size.  Where are you on the roster?  Are you in the starting 8?  Or, are you #35 on a roster of 50?  If it's the latter, yeah, you get to say you're playing college ball.  But, basically, you're a cheerleader.

Go44dad posted:

I can't prove a negative, but anyone that is being recruited sophomore year in high school will have some idea of the failure rate.  After that, I'm not sure what we are talking about.

I know kids that have decommitted/recommitted somewhere else because of coaching changes, because the school changed their mind 3 days before NLI signing and gave the money to someone else, because they committed early and didn't develop, because the academics were more difficult than they thought, school was too far away.  And some who just changed because it sounded better to them.  But all of them knew the verbal committing risks.

So Francis, let's say your kids a D1/P5 recruit and a sophomore, multiple schools are offering.  The perfect fit school/dream school offers more than you thought your kid would get.  Everything fits.  Would you let him verbally commit?  Or tell the head coach you will wait until November of Senior year/NLI signing day so please hold some of your scholarship budget back for him just in case?  Because 20% of engagements don't make it to marriage, or a respected guy on the internet chatboard told you 50% of freshman transfer.

Obviously I'm picking an outlier, but here is Vandy's 2021 class rn.  Think they are saving a spot for ya?

 

 

 

It will be interesting to see how many of those kids are on the field at Vandy the first day of fall '2021 practice.

I agree with the analogy.  Some back out of marriage and some back out of commitment.  But that number is very few.  I also agree that 50% of both don't finish the commitment through.  4 years of baseball or a  lifetime of marriage.  But it really depends on what is a commitment.  My son got the opportunity to play at a school that was in his top schools with a good offer.  He took it summer before his Junior year.  Who knows what the future will hold but he will hold to his commitment.  Now if they tell him there is no place for him at some point then that may change but that is not him not keeping his commitment.  Commitment means trust.  Trust is hard to understand but players must trust coaches to hold to what they said and coaches must trust players to hold to their verbal.  I think either can change their minds and then others must understand reasons.  I can't hold it against a coach if they have a conversation with a player and tell them point blank you are not the player we thought you would be and you will not see the field here so we recommend you looking somewhere else and we will help you.  Or a player telling a coach that he desires something else if it is better for him or his situation has changed.  It may not be completely right but it is life.

My son was told by several schools that they would make an offer if he would de-commit from his school but he was happy with his decision and looks forward to playing at his school.  it may not be the best decision but only time will tell.  We make decisions and trust in people to do the right things.  Overall, that works for the most part.

Simply do your homework. I researched as best I could, the rosters of schools that offered him or that he had a real interest in. It was time consuming so it would be tough to do a ton of schools. I looked at rosters to see how many kids, specifically juniors, started on the team as freshman. What percentage of roster turnover do they have year to year. How many JUCO guys coming in each year. Lots of things such as coaching changes, etc can go into this so be thorough. It is not uncommon, especially at P5 schools to find rosters where only 2 or 3 if any kids that started there as freshmen are still there as juniors. Know realistically where your son is at in the pecking order, and how hard he is willing to work when your not around.   It’s tough, but it you really do your home work , it’s a little easier.  Hopefully, the research pays off for us but won’t know until a few years. 2019 grad. 

Francis7 posted:

BishopLeftiesDad posted:

I can say for D3, Any Commitment made before they show up on campus is not real. In D3 there is no NLI. all of it is verbal. The coach does not know he has you until you show up on campus and attend the first baseball meeting. What many have talked about in terms of Playing time May be even more prevalent in D3. I know I have seen it in my sons old program. However they are able to hold onto most of those kids. They lost 3 in the 4 years I watched my son play due to transfers. But I cannot speak for other programs. 

Many kids come in thinking they will play right away. Heck its D3, most of the players are barely better than your average High school right? Not so. Many of the players in D3 were all conference-all state and the studs on their hs teams. Not many D3 ball players, get significant playing time all 4 years. Of course, D3 is a large tent and there are Large state schools down to tiny religious schools, so you mileage may very.  

Many of the D3 schools lose kids after the Fall Semester due to the challenge on keeping up with Academics. But that is a different story for a different thread. 

The other thing with D3 is roster size.  Where are you on the roster?  Are you in the starting 8?  Or, are you #35 on a roster of 50?  If it's the latter, yeah, you get to say you're playing college ball.  But, basically, you're a cheerleader.

It is all what you make of it. Many of these players are very involved in Practice. Some who did not play much, at my sons school were indispensable to the team. They were good teammates.  Some were fraternity brothers. Some were mentors to the freshman, helping steer them in the proper direction. Some became bitter troublemakers, who were run off or asked not to come back. 

Even though you are not getting playing time, it does not mean you are not an important member of the team. Many of these players are not there to say they are playing college ball. Many are there because they enjoy the camaraderie of being on a team. From a young age many bring their children to this game or others, because it teaches many things. We all know everyone wants to play, and everyone should. However we preach the intangibles of being on a team. Do those go away after HS is over? Who is to judge what player 35 out of 50 gets from the experience. 

Also since there are no commitments at D3, and you do not truly know who will show up to campus in the fall, do you truly know how big your roster will be? Some of D3 recruiting is to make sure you can still field a competitive team if players do not come back, or never show up in the first place. 

wareagle posted:

Simply do your homework. I researched as best I could, the rosters of schools that offered him or that he had a real interest in. It was time consuming so it would be tough to do a ton of schools. I looked at rosters to see how many kids, specifically juniors, started on the team as freshman. What percentage of roster turnover do they have year to year. How many JUCO guys coming in each year. Lots of things such as coaching changes, etc can go into this so be thorough. It is not uncommon, especially at P5 schools to find rosters where only 2 or 3 if any kids that started there as freshmen are still there as juniors. Know realistically where your son is at in the pecking order, and how hard he is willing to work when your not around.   It’s tough, but it you really do your home work , it’s a little easier.  Hopefully, the research pays off for us but won’t know until a few years. 2019 grad. 

Excellent point, it can vary widely from school to school.   Son's freshman class had 8 guys.  This year, as Seniors, there are 6 left, the 2 others transferred to smaller schools.  His team has added 4 other seniors, all JUCO transfers, 1 that's been there 2 seasons, and the other 3 came last year.   The JUCO guys are starting at SS, 3B and C 

wareagle posted:

Simply do your homework. I researched as best I could, the rosters of schools that offered him or that he had a real interest in. It was time consuming so it would be tough to do a ton of schools. I looked at rosters to see how many kids, specifically juniors, started on the team as freshman. 

This is a valuable exercise, and good advice.  I did something similar, but used the PG commitment page rather than tracking down each school's roster.  Might not be perfect, but definitely revealed some trends.  The biggest name that showed interest in my son was showing 10+ commitments per year, one year there were 14.  The school he committed to consistently showed 6-8 and almost all the recent names are still in the program.

Mistakes lead to decommits. Mistakes lead to transferring. If you live in a large state just by numbers alone you’re exposed to reality even if it’s not a baseball hotbed. If you live in a small state you may walk through the process blindfolded and uninformed. 

I live part time in a small state. To be a D1 prospect typically means going mid major. I was at a high school game last year. Some kids were talking about a previous state Gatorade POY as a god. Every team in my son’s large state, large classification conference had at least one better player. The kid washed out freshman year in the MVC and transferred. 

Another dad was talking up his soph son. The dad didn’t know I had played college summer ball with his ex pro brother. My former teammate/friend asked to to watch the kid play and provide him a second opinion. 

The kid was a quality student. He was fast and athletic with great baseball instincts. But he was 5’8” 145. Two of his three hits were beating out grounders in the hole. His other hit was a soft flair. In BP he wasn’t driving every pitch. I saw a potential NESCAC player.

The dad told me the kid hopes to play at LSU or ASU. I played along. I asked what communication they’ve had so far. The dad said none since it’s before the deadline. I asked what summer team the kid played. It was an AAU team that didn’t travel outside New England. 

The kid was 5’10” 150 senior year. 155 on his college roster. The kid ended up walking on at a D1 in one of the lowest rated D1 conferences. His high school seems to have an academic Jesuit pipeline to the college. The kid can fly. I can see giving him a year to see how it goes due to his speed. But senior year of high school he was still beating out grounders and hitting flairs to the outfield. His team didn’t play this weekend. Next weekend they play a P5 bottom feeder. It will be interesting to see if he plays and how he does. I expect to see PR next to his name in the box score if he plays. 

Francis7 posted:

 

Related, and maybe I am just hearing and/or reading things incorrectly, it seems like verbal commitments are getting sketchy these days with kids changing their minds and coaches pulling out rugs - sometimes at the very last minute.  So, when are you really committed?

To answer the question. Most of the commits wind up on campus. Once they get there is a different story though.

I hear a lot of talk about why committing early is bad, but I don't see it that way. The guys committing early are among the best players in the country. By the time they're seniors ready to sign, they are almost always still at the top, many of which become MLB prospects. The players are responsible for their progression and living up to the offer. The program is responsible for remaining elite, retaining coaches, winning games, and avoid any scandals/getting in trouble. 

The guys that I see decommitting (not many) are either some of the last to commit, were not academically eligible, or chose a better baseball option. I see it as largely overblown and not happening all that often 

I don't really see what the alternatives are.  If you want to play at a P5, they make decisions mostly freshman year to  summer after sophomore year.  A few in Junior year, but that's not the majority.  They don't hold spots forever so what do you do with those offers?  I'm with Go44dad.  If the right school offers, you take it.  Then you work your butt off to be ready and able to play once you are on campus.  If you think the pressure is off once you commit, it isn't, you just worry about the next thing.  Will they stay healthy? How will they stack up with the other recruits at the school.  We had several offers we weren't sure on so we waited, but when a school offered that checked all the boxes, he took it.  It up to the families to research how stable the coaches are and if it is a program you feel you can trust.  I feel like if my son does his job and keeps working hard, there is no reason he won't sign his NLI. Maybe that's naive.  We 100% stress to him that nothing is guaranteed and you have to work harder now than you ever have.  Now you have to earn play time.

Francis7 posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

eck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

One of the first things that the coaches in my son's program tell parents and players is:  If they said they got a full ride, they're lying.  No one gets a full baseball scholarship.  A partial?  Maybe?  Some financial aid?  More than likely.  And, maybe some form of academic scholarship too.  But, a full ride from the baseball program?  It doesn't happen.

It depends on where/what level your kid plays at.  Ryno went to JC on a full scholarship.  Books, housing, tuition, etc.  At D-1, pretty rare.  D-2, I'm not sure.  I think many more go to JC on full scholly, because they are generally cheaper, and there are more scholarships available.

rynoattack posted:

Francis7 posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

eck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

One of the first things that the coaches in my son's program tell parents and players is:  If they said they got a full ride, they're lying.  No one gets a full baseball scholarship.  A partial?  Maybe?  Some financial aid?  More than likely.  And, maybe some form of academic scholarship too.  But, a full ride from the baseball program?  It doesn't happen.

It depends on where/what level your kid plays at.  Ryno went to JC on a full scholarship.  Books, housing, tuition, etc.  At D-1, pretty rare.  D-2, I'm not sure.  I think many more go to JC on full scholly, because they are generally cheaper, and there are more scholarships available.

Yeah and if your kid is going D3 it is all academic. So 0% athletic. I do not remember how many times we were told, your lucky, School is getting paid for. When I said Nope all Academic. they were puzzled. 

rynoattack posted:

Francis7 posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

eck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

One of the first things that the coaches in my son's program tell parents and players is:  If they said they got a full ride, they're lying.  No one gets a full baseball scholarship.  A partial?  Maybe?  Some financial aid?  More than likely.  And, maybe some form of academic scholarship too.  But, a full ride from the baseball program?  It doesn't happen.

It depends on where/what level your kid plays at.  Ryno went to JC on a full scholarship.  Books, housing, tuition, etc.  At D-1, pretty rare.  D-2, I'm not sure.  I think many more go to JC on full scholly, because they are generally cheaper, and there are more scholarships available.

Especially at San Jac.

Francis7 posted:

Buckeye 2015 posted:

eck, any of you who have kids playing college baseball have all heard from all of the people who assume because your kid got a scholarship to play baseball that's he is "going to school for free".  Yes, because our kids all got full rides like basketball and football right?      Sure some people don't know it, but when my son started college, I heard it from people who had kids that were hoping to play college baseball....who were already sophomores in HS.  They were a little shocked to find out that their hope of their kid going to school for free by playing baseball wasn't gonna happen.    

One of the first things that the coaches in my son's program tell parents and players is:  If they said they got a full ride, they're lying.  No one gets a full baseball scholarship.  A partial?  Maybe?  Some financial aid?  More than likely.  And, maybe some form of academic scholarship too.  But, a full ride from the baseball program?  It doesn't happen.

Not entirely true. 1) It's rare at D1, but it DOES happen sometimes; 2) Depends on the level - lots of full ride JC; 3) depends on how it's calculated - example: my kid got a 70% scholarship. THIS is what is reported to the NCAA, so it's officially what his scholarship percentage is. They give 70% based on out-of-state tuition, so that is how it's calculated against the 11.7 scholarship limit. However, my son, through the WUE, qualifies to pay only 150% of in-state tuition. Therefore a 70% athletic scholarship covers 100% of COA, resulting in, effectively, a "full ride."