WHY COMMIT SO EARLY?

Dadcoach,

To answer your question about 14-15 year old kids...

Some of them do exhibit college level skills at that age. For the most part those are the type kids committing early to the power programs. As we all know, many/most kids develop these type skills a little later on. Then there are some that are very advanced at a younger age and show the potential to play college/pro baseball. 

Showing potential and realizing it are two different things. But colleges still want to get as many of those with high potential as possible.  Either you get them or someone else will.

The problem is when these young players don't progress enough, the coach no longer wants to invest in them.  It really isn't that hard to get rid of that commitment.  In most cases it starts off like this. 

Coach says... "We are no longer interested in you and we don't think you can play in our program". "If you come here you will never see the field". It is in your best interest to find another school"

What is a player suppose to do at this point? Do you try to force yourself on someone that no longer wants you? Does that sound like a comfortable way to go about playing college baseball while getting your degree? No, most everyone is extremely disappointed and moves on elsewhere.  The old verbal commitment is forgotten by everyone but the family affected.

So to that extent, it is always better if the player commits later on when the recruiters aren't going to take risks.  Then again, for many the process works out great.  They are or become the player the recruiter offered a scholarship to.

So to me, it is all about the player! The one thing that isn't likely to change anytime soon is the best young players are going to get offers.  This will never effect those HS juniors that are top prospects. There is always a place for those guys, just not as many options in many cases.

Bottom line... Everyone wants the best possible players!  Used to be you could wait until they were all juniors. The goal at many of the best programs now is to have them wrapped up before they are juniors. Beat the competition to the punch!  They might make more mistakes this way, but in the end they will get what they want. So basically they recruit you, they get your commitment, then they will follow you to make sure they still want you when you are a junior/senior. The player and their parent should feel very secure in their decision if they get offered at an early age. They need to understand that there might be some risk involved.

I don't think any of this should be confused as an attack on college coaches.  It's more of a reminder that people do change their mind. It's all about competition!

PG staff, my son is a 2016 player.  He is LHP and has attended a PG showcase.  He did fairly well at was a 7 rating and topped at 80mph.  He is 15 and will be 17 when he graduates.  We were all told to hold him back in school, but he is very bright and #2 in his class academically.  I worry that he won't mature enough for a D1 school.  what are options for him when he finishes high school and maybe he is at 86 to 88 mph?

Yotes,

What type of maturity are you concerned about?  Physical?  Intellectual?  Emotional?

My son (2013 RHP) is a similar age profile as your son.  I tried to talk my boy into a year of JUCO but he didn't want it.  He's got a scholarship to a D1 in the MVC.  Physically, he's had to kick it up quite a bit to hold the conditioning level.  Intellectually, he's holding his own with the studies.  Emotionally, he was a bit unprepared for the large number of alpha males that start swinging from the rafters.

There are a wide variety of D1 schools with varying degrees of maturity levels across all three.  There are plenty of good JUCO programs that can give your son a year to grow and actually play full time and not fight for innings out of the pen.  If he's good academically, he'll probably buck at JUCO thinking it's a negative mark.

Cal

yotes78,

You still have lots of time for possible D1 pitching.  Although your son may not be on the watch list for the top echelon of D1 schools right now there is still lots of time.  No worries.  If your LHP son is very bright (as you suggest), and he continues to develop & get the right exposure he will have options.  Great academics are a lock, but a developing LHP that throws well is all "up-side". 

There are still some schools out there he probably hasn't considered yet (list below).  As you get deeper and deeper down the recruiting rabbit hole you'll realize there is much more to college baseball than just the upper echelon D1's that get all the media attention. 

298 D1 schools

244 D2 schools

346 D3 schools

187 NAIA schools

322 NJCAA schools

Good luck!

Yotes,

I think it is important to consider a few things... A 15-16 year old LHP throwing 80 can be very good in some cases.  However, there are a very large number of those types. So until they actually develop it is a bit early to speculate where they might fit in.

Any lefty that has a good mix of pitches he can control and 80 mph or better velocity can be a good college pitcher at some level.  Just how good those pitches are, especially the breaking ball and change up obviously determines what level that pitcher can succeed at.  Also the movement on the fastball is important. The better his stuff and command the less important the velocity.

That said, the highest levels usually require better velocity.  To feel secure that a left hand pitcher is DI material he probably needs to be upper 80s in most cases.  The higher the better!  Some low to mid 80s guys have done well at DI, but seldom are recruiters excited about those types.  

I think parents that are very concerned about this stuff should go attend college games and bigger high school age events to see what is out there.  I often hear unknowing parents talk about the things their son has done and how talented he is.  The thing they don't always realize is that there is a very large number of kids out there that fit that same mold and a very large number of kids that currently throw harder and with better stuff.  So just being a good player in high school doesn't make someone into a DI prospect.  We have seen 15-16 year olds throwing 92-94 mph.  Colleges want those type to commit early.  After all, they're already throwing well above DI velocity and they might get better yet.

The good news is it sounds like your son is already a college prospect at some level. He might very well become a upper DI level prospect, but it is too early to know that for sure. Right now, he is one of many good ones at his age.

All that said, I should add this... I actually have seen young kids throwing without great velocity and feel certain they will develop into something very special.  College recruiters see the same thing, so there is no real rule that covers any one individual. 

Best of luck

Another factor leading to early commitments is that the college programs want to know whether a kid is interested in time to go to bachelor # 2 if first choice says no.  Because if the college waits, # 2 may be off the market, committed to someone else.

And if # 1 elects to wait, he should understand that his college may commit to # 2 and the opportunity may disappear.

We are very careful to run kids through a battery of questions and options before advising them to make very early commitments.  But there are going to be many cases where the fit is right for both sides and there's no real reason to wait.

That being said, I am beginning to wonder how far back in the pipeline this trend is going to go before it caps out, or whether we might start seeing more and more deals reneged upon as this continues to increase.  There comes a point where I think everyone would benefit from a ban on offers prior to some specific point in time.  I honestly don't see any reason why anyone should have to commit before Sept. 1 of sophomore year and truly those should be few and far between.  If there were a rule of Jan. 1 of sophomore year, or even July 1 after sophomore year, I think the benefits would outweigh any negative effects.

Though you could then expect a frenzy of activity at midnight of the day offers were permitted.

Forgive my ignorance, Midlo, but aren't all these verbal offers unofficial and already outside of the rules structure?

Son has a friend of his who plays football in the Fort Worth area.  He committed to Louisville last summer.  He is considered the #1 FB in the nation.  Head Coach Strong moved to U of Texas, and incoming Coach Petrino did not honor verbal commitment.  Luckily this kid is high enough up the food chain in recruits that he will land on his feet somewhere, however, just think if he was a middle of the road player who had committed last year, and then bypassed all other recruiting since then.  He would be strugglng to find somewhere to play. 

Things change.  Situations change.  Needs and wants change.

I've seen a stud SS verbally commit before their junior year, thinking that when he gets there he will walk in and start..................needless to say, 2 MIF were recruited this year that make this boys skills look pedestrian. 

Buyer beware.

The cons far out weigh the pros to the player in my opinion, and from the real life cases I have seen.  

I guess in a few circumstances, if you are a real top 50 player, and that's the school you dreamed of playing at.  And maybe it helps your draft position.  BUT for most early commits there are a lot of things that can and do happen in 2-3 years.

My son had a July 1st phone call from a D1 school, pitching coach loved him, wanted him, was setting up a visit.... then we never heard anything for two weeks.  Son emailed the HC and the pitching coach had moved on to a HC coaching job at a D3. 

HC said he had not seen son pitch, not interested..... I'm just saying things change... options that's what I like....

I agree 100%

Lot of hypotheticals. Take a look at the big D1's recruiting, they've just about filled up for 2015's. If you're good enough to get an offer and pass, they move on. What are you waiting on if it's what you want?

Sure, they always seem to find money for the late commits if you're blowing it out of the water as a senior, but why wait. A number of the kids they commit early will go to the draft. Then they are back to looking for late bloomers or late commits.

If you commit early to a big program and find they have recruited better players at your position since your commit, 'de commit'. Playing time is the key in my opinion.  

What I have gathered from this site from numerous posters is that you have to treat it as a business decision because that is the way the coaches are treating it. There cannot be a right or wrong answer to the question of committing because there are too many variables. There is only hindsight.

If you're lucky enough to have a kid recruited early, inform yourself as much as possible about every facet of the process from as many sources as you can access. This sight has the benefit of experience from many parents who have been through the process and is, in my opinion, a gem. Is there a chance that the decision will end up being wrong; such is life. There are no guarantees in life, only opportunities. 

Why commit early? Why not?  3 cents worth of drivel.  

There is no guarantee an 80 mph LHP at 15 will throw upper 80's before college.  There is no guarantee an 85 mph LHP will throw 86 for that matter.  It's a crapshoot, and it's dependent upon physical maturity, mechanics, work ethic and genetics.

I wish Bum, Jr. would have NOT been an early commit.  It limited his eventual options.  I look at it this way:  If he ended up throwing 83 out of h.s. well, he would have never been good enough for that early-commit D1 to begin with.  The scholarship would have dried up and they would have moved on to other guys.  Scholarships, even if honored based on a verbal commitment, are year-to-year.

However, if that same kid is hitting 90 before college you have nothing to worry about.  Everyone will want him. 

Sometimes baseball is a game of poker.  Why show your hand so early?

BTW, 86-88 will be offered.  I saw a ton of 84-85 D1 LHP's.

Its dependent on physical maturity A friend of mine who is 5'10" wonders if he hurt his 6'1" son's recruiting chances by being visible at the field and showcases so much. He wonders if coaches looked at dad and thought, "That kid has physically peaked."

So committing really means very little to the player other than the idea that they might someday play at the school they committed to?

When my son committed, we saw the offer first and made the committment .  But the offer can and does change between committing and signing...

I know a few players that for instance received 10k in scholarship dollars ( athletic)  they did not get any of this for the fall semester, and if they make it through the fall to the spring they get the 10k

I know another player that was all set , signed sealed ready to go to school in the fall, the prior June, the current SS did not go in the draft like the coach thought he would... thus cutting the new SS money in half.  When you are talking about 50-60k a year that's a problem.

So commit early if you want.... just remember your a long way from Friday's game roster..

"Forgive my ignorance, Midlo, but aren't all these verbal offers unofficial and already outside of the rules structure?"

The offers are non-binding, as are the players' acceptances.  These handshake deals are basically saying that an NLI will issue at the appropriate time, that it will be on the terms agreed to, and that the player will sign it.

A college can renege on the handshake deal without a specific penalty, but doing that without good cause would hurt that college in its recruiting of others.  How do you get the commitments you want if they find out your word is no good?

A player can renege, also, but may find that some view him with a jaundiced eye if he does so.  Though the situation can be different if there was a coaching change, or if perhaps if it became apparent that he would never pass admissions.

As a practical matter, the handshake deals are honored by both sides probably 99% of the time.

These are not really "outside of the rules structure" because it's all part of what communications are permitted, and that whole topic is heavily regulated by NCAA rules.  Right now the non-binding agreements are not prohibited and therefore they are permitted.  But you could prohibit them, or limit them, via a rules change.

What constitutes an early commit? Is skill level a part of that definition?

Is a commit from a Fall soph an "early commit?" Spring? Fall junior? Any date before NLI signing?

Now add some skill metric, e.g., the overall PG rating: is a commit from a 10 rated Fall soph an early commit vs. a 7.5 rated Fall soph?

I don't think there's a unifying definition as to an early commit, especially relative to skill level, so I don't know what is too early.

I don't see where anyone's evaluation of skill level even enters into it.  Evaluations have their place, but that's not part of what a commitment is.  A commitment is when the school's coach offers and the player accepts the terms offered.

"Early" is in the eye of the beholder, but I think anyone committing more than a year ahead of NLI signing time would rate as "early" in my book.

Suppose you've got an outlier, a superior, 5 tool, 3.5+ GPA player to which there is universal agreement that's he's going to shine at the next level. He's in his Fall semester of his sophomore year. He commits to University X.

Now suppose there's a 7-7.5 PG grade player. Same timeline: Fall semester of his soph year. He commits to University Y.

It seems to me that it is acceptable for the superior player to commit to X: he's got everything you need for all parties to be comfortable with the commitment decision. However, the comfort level for the middle-of-the-road player to commit is not nearly as high.

Perception as to the definition of an early commit needs to take into account talent evaluation, as it may be more acceptable for some rather than others.

I disagree completely.

Both of the players you describe will have their own respective optimum destinations (or types of schools/programs for which there might be a handful of comparable schools).  If they can nail down a deal at their optimum destination on acceptable financial terms early on, I don't see any reason why they would not. 

The key is for both to have done their homework and given mature reflection to what they are gaining and what they might be giving up.  The situation calls for a lot of maturity on the player's part relative to his age, that is, he has to surpass the typical maturity level of his high school peers.  But with guidance and an early enough start on gathering information and evaluating options, it obviously can be done and done well.

It's true that a player with a lower evaluation of his skills might see a lot less interest and will typically have to work harder to get an offer.  But if that guy gets his offer early on, it could well be that he might want to jump on it when it's presented, because there's no guarantee that someone else will ride to his rescue a year later.  And even if another offer does materialize, it might not be at a school/program that is as good a fit. 

Like your realtor will tell you, often the offer you get in the first few days is the best one you'll ever see.  But a good realtor will still evaluate any offer with you and tell you whether, in his/her opinion, this particular offer falls into that category or falls short.  In our realm, this is the job of the travel/exposure team coaches.

I'm not saying players should always jump on the first offer they see.  Far from it.  But players should understand that the recruiting process right now often produces early offers, and they need to be prepared for how to handle that situation,  in case they are fortunate enough to get one.

I have a question about these early verbal commitments. Is the scholarship money discussed, or just a spot on the team?  Do the coaches let the player know if they are getting a 50% or 25% scholarship when they make these early offers?

Thanks in advance.

It might be discussed, but it doesn't mean squat until it's time to sign the LOI and it's in writing

Yes the level of scholarship being verbally committed to is discussed....most coaches would need to have a VERY good reason to not honor it, but that is certainly a risk, but there are also advantages, of which have all been spelled out as well in previous posts.

Many differing opinions on this topic...all valid....I don't think one view fits all. 

Yes, $$$ discussed but does not mean much if either party is not fully committed.  Things change - Beware!

seaublitz, If this offer came next fall after several schools expressed interest and maybe 2 offered 25% to 30%, would you feel different? Do you feel like schools should be 'bidding' on your son to make the experience more special? We thought that was the way it was going to work out for us but the first bidder ended up being a sweet fit. We could have held out to see what other offers were going to come, because they were going to come, however my wife and I but most importantly my son felt that the first offer was a no brainer. He was also offered 50 plus percent baseball money which is a significant offer from any D1. This is a decision that has to be made from the heart and from the head. Does he have a good chance to play here? It sounds like the rest of the important issues are weighed to the positive. There are no perfect answers, only hindsight.

I think it is important to look at a schools recruiting record. ie verbal committs compared to those who actually sign a NLI. 

Thanks you your insight Hunter. Will this offer be there next fall????? Everybody I have talked to has been telling me to wait, not to rush, let the schools fight over your son. That is not the kind of people we are. If my son has no interest on leaving the west coast why do I care what the University of Florida can offer him. They can offer me a full ride, but he doesn't want to go there. I know that is my job is to guide him and help him get the best deal possible, but I'm more interested on the best fit possible. According to the coaches that I have met with they have told me he will have every opportunity to play. Are they sweet talking me...Sure. All he wants is an opportunity. He will take care of the rest.

Our biggest concern right now is that we feel we are making the decision for him. Is this offer going to be there in six months or a year from now. Is this school going to move on to the next guy trying to fit that hole that they need for the 2016 class. Is the longer we wait going to affect the offer than the line? Will the scholarship money run out or be given to other players that are ready to commit?

He doesn't talk much other than to say that he likes the school. We are trying to get him more involved and are planning on going to a few games in Feb. I don't think there is need to rush but I also believe if it is the right fit, we should jump on it.

I also want him to have that experience of visiting some of the other schools on his list and see what they are like since there is only 2 or 3 more on that list.

It's a hard decision to make, and we are trying to do our best in making the right one.

Thanks

Agree!  Finding the best fit for our sons was the main issue. 

My two cents! 55% is great offer for a DI top team on the west coast. They are making the offer now to take him off the market. That means they want him to commit. I'm surprised there wasn't a time line for the acceptance, most are.

A couple of themes you will here on this site, go where they love/want you, go where you have a shot to play and go to a school that if baseball is over you would still be happy.

Your son got an offer to UF?

Lot of me and we in those posts. They are offering your son the opportunity, you pay the bill. Is that list all from him or some from you and wife?

If he isn't sure or indicated he wants to go there or not excited about it, don't do it, it's about the right fit for him, not the parents.

JMO

"It might be discussed, but it doesn't mean squat until it's time to sign the LOI and it's in writing"

This is false.

There is no such thing, in my experience, as an offer that doesn't specify the amount being offered.  It might be expressed in % terms or in other terms, but I've never seen anyone just ask the player to commit in blank.  And I can't imagine any player doing that if it ever did happen.

I wish I could get to the root source of the statement people make repeatedly here that pre-LOI agreements don't mean anything.  That's just wrong, and it's a disservice to spread that misinformation around when someone might rely on it.

To seaublitz:

What I read between the lines is, you have a great opportunity before you, but your son is just not ready to commit.  Not to them, not to anyone.

I think your son (and it has to come from him, not from you) should e-mail the offering coach to express his deep and sincere gratitude for the offer, and to ask, "When do you need to know my answer?"  Or, "When might I come visit to discuss your school and your program with you at greater length?"

Some coaches will say, "Take as long as you need."  Others will say, "We need to know by [date], because we'd love to have you, but if it isn't going to happen, we don't want to miss out on other players."  Others will have you in for an unofficial visit, probably in conjunction with a home basketball game (read:  free tickets!), but then expect your answer at the end of your time there.

What I'm suggesting here is that you buy some time to start gathering your and your son's thoughts and decide whether this is the right place, and whether the terms offered are within your budget.  It can all be very overwhelming, but if you just sit down and start talking through it, you'll be surprised how quickly it can all come into focus. 

And, in my experience, the more of this you let your son control, the more you will be pleased to see how maturely he handles it.  A big mistake parents make is in assuming their sons aren't ready for this.  But even the biggest goofball on the team can get surprisingly zoned in when the occasion really calls for it.  And honestly, the instances where I've seen things get all mucked up have one facet in common:  the parents were too much in the mix.

Excellent points Midlo Dad. The coaches did want him to commit at the time the offer was made but they saw him and I were struggling with the decision and they backed off. We went on a tour of the school last week and we talked some more and I asked that question. How much time does he have? They said as long as  he needs BUT they will continue to recruit for the position my son is trying to fill in that 2016 class. Basically if someone with the same abilities or better comes along and they are willing to commit on the spot they will offer him that particular deal. So basically they are saying don't take to long.

I bought us some time but letting them know that it would be a good idea to go to a couple of games before he makes a decision. One thing we don't want to do is be too much in the mix.

thanks 

Any college that makes a big offer to a sophomore will still want that same player when he is a junior.  If the college doesn't want the player as a junior, they made a mistake when he was a sophomore. In that case it puts the player in a position where he is committed to a college that no longer wants him. In other words, the commitment is over!  If you are good enough as a sophomore, you should be even better as a junior. They should want you even more!

First, I'll apologize if this get lengthy.

I can only relate what our experience has been and the path we set out with our son who is a '15. With the help of the great advise from this board and others who have progressed through this journey before us, we set a goal to have our son "flatten out the roller coaster" and not commit until the end of his junior year. Even though "early commitments" are relatively new to college baseball and there is not a clear cut process as of yet, we were determined to not let the pressure change our course. We had one person tell us, "senior money is more valuable than junior money" and another sage individual explain to our son that "he was betting on himself" and to trust that he would become more valuable. I'll have to admit it was scary at times but we listened and stuck to the plan. I even had one individual tell me that early commitments, as of present, were new territory and he had never seen anything like it, only to say that our path was unique and he hoped it worked out for us. I could only smile at the contradiction.

First we had to identify the "dream school" or what it was. Was it a school that mom or dad had attended? Was it a top 25 program that continually made a deep run in the playoffs or frequented Omaha? We didn’t want our affinity for our alma mater to be a deciding factor. We want him to fall in love with the school he would spend the next four years, for the next 50 years of his life. We were fortunate that some of these schools were pursuing our son and it started during his sophomore year in High School. We were just determined to have our son take his time and not feel pressured or rushed. Some would say that we had that luxury, but it started with just one "dream" school. Although apprehensive, we felt confident others would come and we decided we wanted to let him discover what that "dream school" was. We just asked him to give himself time to hear all offers, get to know the coaches, attend a practice if possible and communicate often to establish a relationship. Watching him grow and develop those relationship was part of the fun for my wife and me. We also felt comfortable communicating our plan to the coaches. Some tried to pressure or seemed impatient, but they all respected we had a plan and all agreed they'd wait. At times he would become antsy because many of his summer teammates or other prospects he knew had committed and he was afraid he’d be left out. We just tried to encourage him to stay the course and trust the process. Many coaches will tell you they only have so many spots, and although this is true to an extent, after researching the process, I came to the conclusion (right or wrong) that it was near impossible for them to know exactly what they'd have 12 months from now. There is early draft entry, players injured or leave the program or signees that never make it to campus. Money always becomes available for a strong prospect. Schools want you to believe they hold all the cards, but they don’t. We were determined to stay in charge. We also had a certain comfort that if our plan was flawed, JUCO was the last out. That also became a barometer for measuring schools. Would he go the JUCO route before committing to a certain 4yr. school.

Although he may have had his clear cut favorites and thought he wanted to play in a certain conference, the time he took allowed him to discover what his dream school would be or become. I’ll tell you right now, it wasn’t one that he or my wife and I would have ever imagined. It also gave us time to see this years signing class and for him to eliminate some schools for the practice of over signing. That was a huge eye opener for him. It also allowed him to develop those relationships and discover that he fell in love with certain coaching staffs at schools that he had previously discounted. Although I would have loved for him to wear the uniform of my alma mater, and he certainly had that chance, we became very impressed and comfortable with the coaching staff, university and community of several schools that I wouldn’t have thought my son would ever wear the uniform for. Had he committed to any one of them at the time, we would have been very happy. But taking his time allowed for one school to get involved and become his clear cut dream school.

Having said all that, all I can say is have a clear plan, try not to waver from it, don’t be pressured and trust in your sons ability. Have a back up plan that may not be as glamorous but will ultimately set him on the right course for him to continue his dream. Be comfortable in your plan. If he has talent, they need and want him. Be realistic with his ability and bet on your son not the school. The right "dream" school will be discovered.

I can now say I need to change my screen name to CARDDAD19.

Eventhough it's earlier than we originally expected, my wife and I are beyond ecstatic to say our son has committed to play baseball at a school that, thanks to the process, became a dream but more importantly, a reality. Stanford University

Agdad, CardDad,

Great post and with a very important message!

Congratulations you should be very proud of your son and the way you handled this.

The way recruiting has changed has been very good for our business.  However, I think people need to know a sophomore commitment doesn't guarantee that college will even want you by the next year.  

Sure, if the player is super star quality, things are likely to work out fine.  But, we see young kids making very early verbals, that are likely to fall into that "We no longer want you and you will never play here" category! In many cases we have seen the player a lot more than the college has. In many cases it is the one and only college that made an offer. What do you do or say? The player and his family are elated and very proud.  It's kind of like a huge accomplishment without having accomplished anything yet. When it works, it's great! But when it don't work it is devastating. 

On the other hand we know many young players that could commit as a sophomore to nearly any school in the country.  These would be considered the "sure" bet types.  They could have many offers to consider.  Yet, many of those kids don't commit early.  I guess they know there good enough that they don't have to jump at the first offer. And they are that good!

That is a great point PGStaff. I have read and respect your opinions. Just one more thing to think about.

IMHO, he is just not ready to make this decision right now, so we would be making it for him and we don't want to do that. I'm hoping he will mature in a year and he can have some more input into the decision that is going to affect the next 4 or 5 years of HIS life. Our job is to guide him, support him, and like TPM said in an earlier post "pay the bill".

Thanks

"Any college that makes a big offer to a sophomore will still want that same player when he is a junior."

PG, I can't remember the last time I disagreed with you, but on this I do. 

If we're talking about pitchers, it's one thing.  Most teams recruit numerous pitchers in every annual class.

But at other positions, depending on what is already present in other classes, there may be limited room for a particular type of player.  So while one guy is playing the field, another guy may take his spot.  Since the program has only 11.7 in money available to spend, it can't just keep committing to guys willy nilly.  Once the amount budgeted for a position in the coaches' minds is spent, the door can close.

Also, it may be that the amount of money may go down, if they still want you but their budget has gotten eaten up in the interim. 

You are correct, and that is one of my worries. They only have a certain amount of money they want to spend at a particular position ie CF. Let's say we wait until next year or even until the summer. Is that 55% going to be there or is it going to be 35% because they spent some of that money in other ways.