Before we finalize out statistical analysis, we need to make sure there is not one or two guys out there that that are getting hit repeatedly - could be a few slow twitch, hard headed pitchers are skewing the data.
I think I got you on the numbers jac. But then I have a question for you as an obvious insurance or actuarial guy. If a pitcher is that much more likely to be hit in the head by a pitch, why are insurance rates so much higher for car insurance than for baseball teams? I guess they are taking into consideration normal accidents with no injuries as well as serious injuries not involving death? I guess if you compare dying in a car wreck for an 18 year old (worst case possible scenario) to getting hit in the head by a batted ball (in which not even getting hurt by it is a possibility), chances are better of getting hit. But if you add in not only getting killed in a car wreck but getting seriously injured, the numbers will skew to the other side.
Then if you change your numbers to include only those pitchers who are killed or seriously injured by being hit, the numbers skew even more towards driving being more dangerous.
And if you compare getting killed in a car wreck to getting killed by a batted ball, the numbers skew towards the car being more dangerous.
Guess I could go on and on about different scenarios. I'm not even going to take the time to come up with the numbers, as this can go on forever.
And you are right in that on an individual basis, the chances seem so small that most don't worry about it. Well, I shouldn't say don't worry. I think all of us pitcher's parents worry to some degree, but don't worry enough to take significant action. But as an aggregate, it may be something to look at. And when it does happen in a catastrophic way to someone we know, it is a devastating thing. And something we wish could have been prevented.
Not exactly sure what to do about it as any options that would totally protect the pitchers will be physically cumbersome. Any options that are not overly cumbersome will only partially protect the pitcher.
I know this. I think I spent A LOT more time worrying about my kids driving than about my son getting hit in the head by a batted ball. Man, the late nights while the kids were out driving and me sitting at home worrying probably took more than a few years off my life...
My guess is that in the aggregate the amount of property damage done by teens with cars outweighs the death toll, even as devastating as the death toll might be. I know my son's HS parking lot is full of cars worth 3 or 4 times what all three of mine are combined, and teen drivers aren't getting any better, the cars are just getting safer as they get more expensive.
I don't really think the net risk of injury from pitching really outweighs the total risk from driving, and your insurance point speaks to that likely being the case. The rules changes for bats and other changes to reduce batted ball velocities are a response to an actual risk, though, and they're probably the best choice given the circumstances at the moment. If someone develops an affordable non-intrusive head protection for pitchers, I'd expect the calculus to change, and for it to get adopted fairly quickly.
Originally Posted by freddy77:
I always had a continual, lingering fear for pitchers (of both teams--ours AND theirs) when I coached BESR baseball.
That lingering fear is almost nonexistent for me with BBCOR and woodbat baseball.
It's not because of the rational probabilities.
I think it's because I always felt that we were daring fate by letting HS batters use juiced-up bats. It seemed like an "un-natural" risk.
Whereas, the risk posed by woodlike (or wood) bats seems natural and acceptable to me. Like getting hit by lightning. Basically, an act of God (or Fate), not an act of Man (who is tempting Fate, by allowing/using juiced bats.)
I'm not saying this is rational on my part.
I think a lot of the younger folks don’t realize just how much better BBCOR is than BESR. My son was pitching when the rule was drop 5 and titanium was king. It wasn’t at all unusual to see college kids blasting 500’+ shots and some HS players routinely hitting the ball 450’+. From there it got to composites and flat out cheating what with rolling and shaving bats. But it was honestly never about danger for me. It was that the game was no longer baseball as I grew to love it in the 40’s, 50’s, and 60’s. Not only did they take away a lot of the advantage pitchers had when they lowered the mound, over the period of a couple decades they replaced baseball bats with howitzers!
Something else forgotten or not known by many today is, not only were the bats going crazy, PEDs went crazy as well. So you had many knuckle dragging goons sticking needles in their a$$es, grabbing bats that had the capacity to launch balls into low orbit. Trust me, today’s college and HS game looks like Nerf ball compared to those games. Now it looks like there’s going to be a similar shift at the lowest levels, and it’s great! I think it’s too late, but better late than never.
Originally Posted by jacjacatk:
My guess is that in the aggregate the amount of property damage done by teens with cars outweighs the death toll, even as devastating as the death toll might be. I know my son's HS parking lot is full of cars worth 3 or 4 times what all three of mine are combined, and teen drivers aren't getting any better, the cars are just getting safer as they get more expensive.
I don't really think the net risk of injury from pitching really outweighs the total risk from driving, and your insurance point speaks to that likely being the case. The rules changes for bats and other changes to reduce batted ball velocities are a response to an actual risk, though, and they're probably the best choice given the circumstances at the moment. If someone develops an affordable non-intrusive head protection for pitchers, I'd expect the calculus to change, and for it to get adopted fairly quickly.
Agree with all the above and with the bolded part with regard to this specific topic. Regardless of the odds (which I think is the reason we - as a society - are not doing anything to protect the pitchers), people do get hurt and doing something to improve on that, especially at the younger ages, is not really a bad thing...
All this math is making my head hurt (pun intended). I like all other athletes parents deal with risk. I believe we are even going to let him play football as a freshman. I don't think I even want to see those numbers! But again I just want it to be as safe as possible. I know we can't put them in bubble wrap but wouldn't that be nice! Jac how would bubble wrap affect those numbers?
No doubt, driving is a much bigger problem. Hell, driving is a bigger danger than all the risks associated with all the sports combined.
You can always find things that are more or less dangerous and even deadly.
However, making a sport safer without changing the basic sport sounds like a wise thing to me. And they have been doing that for many years be it the rules or the equipment. I don't expect that to change in the future. There was a period of time when they did make baseball more dangerous with those rocket launchers, but that has been addressed.
My oldest son played football and baseball. Football in college. Playing baseball he broke his jaw sliding into 3rd base when the throw was off line the 3B knee struck his jaw. He got hit on the wrist and broke it on an inside pitch. He never missed a game or practice playing football. And he was a DL who was very aggressive many times never coming off the field. You just never know.
I am with PG that we need to constantly look for ways to make the game safer without screwing up the game itself. Look there is danger, period. But to be honest with you playing sports is probably the safest thing kids can do today. Look at all the stuff many kids that don't play sports get into? Life is full of risk or it's pretty darn boring. JMO
Todays youth pitcher throws to much. Many are working with pitching coaches and firing full mound sessions in November for a March/ April season. Their inning totals for the year exceed pros and their arm care programs are rarely executed properly or are non-existant. If you want to protect pitchers, let them rest during the off-season, limit throw days, and get them on a solid arm program and recovery program.
CoachCavaleaML,
Don’t you mean “pitches” too much as opposed to “throws” too much? I know the difference may be subtle, but there’s a huge group of knowledgeable people out there who feel the difference is very important.
Kind of a slow Friday when a trainer gets called out on semantics. I think I remember him saying he did not consider himself any type of pitching instructor, so to him throwing and pitching are somewhat synonymous. Kind of like my wife calling me out for using the term "throw harder" instead of "throw faster".
Where is all the NLI discussion/announcements from last week?
Yes. Pitches to much. But, shutting down all throwing for 4 to 6 weeks per year and taking a true off-season is a good thing.
As I said I did not come on this forum to engage in a finger-pointing game. I am also more than a trainer having spent over 12 years in the big leagues working hand-in-hand with some of the best pitching coaches and pictures in the game. With that said,as I write my response I'm sitting next to a Minnesota Twins starting pitcher who is validating my response as I write it. I also possess a degree in sports medicine which allows me to speak to the subject due to doing years of research on it both scientific and practical. Again I am here to help the coaches and athletes that want it and for those parents that have their own ideals and opinions that is fine as well. I've spent my whole career giving information to those that want it and value it. Thanks.
And finally when I say I'm not a pitching instructor I'm referring to discussing arm slot and the mechanics of pitching. Thanks for the support
Originally Posted by CoachCavaleaML:
As I said I did not come on this forum to engage in a finger-pointing game. I am also more than a trainer having spent over 12 years in the big leagues working hand-in-hand with some of the best pitching coaches and pictures in the game. With that said,as I write my response I'm sitting next to a Minnesota Twins starting pitcher who is validating my response as I write it. I also possess a degree in sports medicine which allows me to speak to the subject due to doing years of research on it both scientific and practical. Again I am here to help the coaches and athletes that want it and for those parents that have their own ideals and opinions that is fine as well. I've spent my whole career giving information to those that want it and value it. Thanks.
We appreciate your input coach. All I can say is "That's Stats", he has a habit of pushing buttons. It's his way, over time you will either chuckle at him that "he's at it again" or learn to ignore him. You are valued as a member of this board, thank you for joining 
CoachC - Since you brought it up, can you outline a timetable for a complete "shut down" program to include the ramp up portion to get back throwing 90%+? Sounds like your complete shut down period (i.e. do not pick up a ball) of 4-6 weeks may be a little shorter than some others I have read here. Assuming a kid didn't throw excessively, could your entire off season be as little as 10 weeks - 4 weeks zero throwing with 6 weeks to ramp back up? Also, in your opinion, what exactly does the no throw period do? I've read comments about healing all "micro tears" during this time - is that your reasoning also?
Coach 99% of us really really appreciate having you here. I have my son shut down 3 to 4 months. Is that too much? I kind of have same question as 2017!
CoachCavaleaML,
I can see something got under your skin, and I hope it wasn’t me. Did you take what I said as being some kind of smart-ass snarky comment or the way I intended it, as a comment to make sure people who don’t have a lot of expertise don’t confuse a kid and a friend or his dad playing catch, with a kid pitching in a game or throwing a full bore bull pen?
Originally Posted by jacjacatk:
I wouldn't be surprised if there was some aggregated data somewhere, …
It seems there is! Below is a response this question. The argument about how dangerous it is for pitchers because of being hit by a batted ball will never stop, but I’d sure like to know if there’s any “reputable” study that lists baseball injuries at all levels, ages, and venues.
Evidently there’s been some study before HIPPA became law, and there’s been at least some ignoring HIPPA after. 
There have been a few studies that have attempted to answer this question. In 2004 Mueller et al. studied catastrophic injuries in high School and college baseball players. They found that out of 31 catastrophic injuries 14 cases were a pitcher being hit by a batted ball. In 5 of those 14 cases the pitcher was behind a L screen and 100% of those cases were head injuires.
In 2007 Dick et al. studied college baseball injuries from 1988-2004. 100/717 pitchers injuries were from batted balls. 13/49 severe injuries from batted balls where pitchers. 10% of all game injuries during that time period where from batted balls and of that 10%, 3% of them where pitchers.
In 2008 Collins & Comstock studies injuries in high school baseball from 2005-2007. They found that 50/431 (11.6%) HS injuries where from batted balls.
Also in 2001 Muller et al. looked at little league injuries from 1987-1996. 2/3 of the little league injuries where caused by the ball and 75% of the time the ball had been batted.
I hope this helps answer your questions. Here are all the references:
Catastrophic Injuries in High School and College Baseball Players; AJSM 2004
Barry P. Boden,*† MD, Robin Tacchetti,† MS, PT, and Fred O. Mueller,‡ PhD From † The Orthopaedic Center, Rockville, Maryland, and the ‡ University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina
Epidemiological features of high school baseball injuries in the United States, 2005-2007; Pediatrics 2008
Collins CL, Comstock RD
Descriptive Epidemiology of Collegiate Men’s Baseball Injuries: National Collegiate Athletic Association Injury Surveillance System, 1988–1989 Through 2003–2004; Journal of Athletic Training 2007
Randall Dick, MS, FACSM*; Eric L. Sauers, PhD, ATC, CSCS†; Julie Agel, MA, ATC‡; Greg Keuter, MS, ATC§; Stephen W. Marshall, PhD; Kenneth McCarty, ATC¶; Edward McFarland, MD#
Injuires in little league baseball from 1987 through 1996; Phys Sportsmed 2001
Mueller FO, Marshall SW, Kirby DP
Wonder where the line is between catastrophic injury and non catastrophic injury?
Originally Posted by PGStaff:
Wonder where the line is between catastrophic injury and non catastrophic injury?
If you really want to know more, here’s some links to those references.
http://ajs.sagepub.com/content/32/5/1189
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC155424/
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/18519488
http://www.philly.com/philly/b...seball-injuries.html
http://www.justinshaginawptatc...og/category/baseball
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17710166
http://www.littleleague.org/Page56258.aspx
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20086581
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm...2465389/#!po=26.9231
I think MLB poses more batted-ball risk to pitchers than HS or college because of the high frequency of high batted-ball speeds in MLB.
MLB pitchers throw about 44,000 innings per season. It seems that about two MLB pitchers per season are knocked out of games by headshots; in other words, one debilitating headshot for every 22,000 innings-pitched.
Originally Posted by freddy77:
I think MLB poses more batted-ball risk to pitchers than HS or college because of the high frequency of high batted-ball speeds in MLB.
MLB pitchers throw about 44,000 innings per season. It seems that about two MLB pitchers per season are knocked out of games by headshots; in other words, one debilitating headshot for every 22,000 innings-pitched.
If you mean risk per BIP, I agree. But if you mean pure numbers, I question it because where there are 30 ML teams that play 162 9 inning games a season, there are more than 16,000 teams playing roughly 20 7 inning games per season. That’s over 2 million innings, and that’s just for varsity ball.