2008 Predictions

Chatsworth pick is a D'oH...

Saw some a couple of good pitchers from Royal in Fall Ball. T.O. is probably a safe pick though. Simi lost some good talent. N.P. obviously lost a key player. All the Maramonte teams are tough and any one could emerge.

Northward - Oxnard should be class of the Northern teams and should take Pacific View and do well in the playoffs. Oxnard was the best summer team we saw. I think Camarillo lost too much talent. S.B. lost 14 Sr's and will not repeat. D.P. will most likely rise through the effete Channel League. Ventura has a shot, but either won't go far in playoffs.

St. Bonnie will win the Tri-Valley again, but who cares because it is such a feeble league. Actually Oaks Chr. has a couple of upcoming young arms that might help them knock off Bonnie.....well maybe not, but there is always hope. Anyway Bonnie will get knocked off in the first round.

Pretty much sums up the are just North of LA.

Man I have to proof read these post better...yikes.

BOF,
This is my annual dig at the fact that Chatsworth plays in a relatively weak league and section which along with their being a very good team leads to a great W-L record each year and possibly a tendency to be a bit higher up in the polls than deserved.

I've heard that Casey Fry has dropped out of Chatsworth (he was 4th on the depth chart anyway) and is now attending Pierce College.

Crespi should be interesting. They won their league last year and lost only one starter to graduation. 2 big bats move up from JV. One became eligible (ineligible in 2007 due to transfer) to play varsity and a sophomore earned his way up with his arm and his bat.

One of the toughest leagues is the South Coast League: Capo, San Clemente, Mission Viejo,Tesoro, Aliso Viejo. San Clemente is the sleeper here.

You South Coast guys have to get through a pretty tough Long Beach Wilson to get to the CIF Southern Section crown.

No doubt, LB Wilson is the team to beat in '08. Any other picks in the Southern Section?

Wilson will likely come out on top, but the Southern Section is so talent rich, it's kinda like asking Midas to pick out his favorite piece of gold.

quote:

Originally posted by no11:
Wilson will likely come out on top, but the Southern Section is so talent rich, it's kinda like asking Midas to pick out his favorite piece of gold.

How true.

MTS,
Any predictions for Saturday if it doesn't rain?

Are we playing against you? I don't know if my son is pitching JV or Varsity.

Think so. I believe both games are at our place.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
Think so. I believe both games are at our place.

My son is supposed to be there for a 1:00 start.

I can only offer my unqualified prediction on Marmonte League:

1) Thousand Oaks - Lost a couple of decent players, but is very deep in talent. Some of the kids on JV last year could have started on varsity on other teams in the league....

2) Westlake - Has some very impressive young guns. Christian Yelich is a future Marmonte League MVP.

3) Royal - Pretty solid team. Unfortunately stuck in one of the toughest leagues in SoCal, and this isn't the 2005 team....

4) Newbury Park - Lost Lambo, but still has some solid pitching and non-longball bats. On a good day, can beat any team in the league.

5) Simi Valley - Good set of bats, really like the middle infield. Other teams in the league better not look past their game against Simi....

6) Agoura - Has some talent at key positions, and has a well balanced lineup. But not enough to knock off TO and Westlake.


I make no presumptions about the accuracy of my picks. It's simply based upon what I've seen and includes any prejudices I have (did I see a good team on a bad day?). Anyway, I really look forward to Marmonte baseball this year. Once again, a top league in SoCal. Any parents of a kid playing in this league should feel blessed (I do). It's great competition for our kids to learn and grow from.

CADad and MTS - apologies if I under ranked the teams your kids are on....Hope to see you out there this year...

ProudSocalDad

Proud,
Royal's pitching is probably enough better than Westlake's to make the difference. I'd put them #2. Westlake is probably #3 especially if the pitchers I've heard about come through. Simi is probably #4 depending on who they can bring on the bump. After that NP and Moorpark are probably next. I don't know much about NP. Moorpark has a couple decent starting pitchers. I don't know if those two have the durability to get the job done by themselves. There's a couple pitchers who have good enough stuff to potentially back them up by the end of the season but given that one of those was sent down to JV and the other is looked at as being green despite having as much or more experience than the junior pitchers who he's the same age as I don't think they are going to contend. The juniors they have are all high 70's types who max out at about 81. The "green" one and the one sent down to JV are low to mid 80s guys who have outpitched the others year in and year out. There's several holes in the batting order so they are not likely to score much against the better pitching teams although they've got 3 kids who can hang with good pitching and some kids who can hit fairly well against mediocre pitching. Unfortunately, I'd look for almost a repeat of last season in league, although with a weaker league they could win a couple more games, but a better performance outside league for Moorpark.

I think Agoura and Calabasas will bring up the rear unless Agoura has found something in the off-season.

The reality is that anything can happen in the Marmonte league and you just don't know until they play them.

quote:

Originally posted by ProudSocalDad:

CADad and MTS - apologies if I under ranked the teams your kids are on....Hope to see you out there this year...

ProudSocalDad

No problem. We won 2 weeks ago against Thousand Oaks in an unofficial game.

quote:

Originally posted by CADad:
BOF,
This is my annual dig at the fact that Chatsworth plays in a relatively weak league and section which along with their being a very good team leads to a great W-L record each year and possibly a tendency to be a bit higher up in the polls than deserved.

Weak league?
Cif City at Dodger stadium featured Chats vs Cleveland. Chats defeated ECR in playoff and Granada was in the Invitational at Dodger stadium, Burmingham was in the playoffs, ONLY Taft was not included. How is this a weak league? 3rd in division league ECR lost 1-0 to #3 nationally ranked Long beach Wilson after ECR's coach was thrown out in the first inning.
3 of the division teams quite frequently play Marmonte league teams with good results.

Oh, I forgot to mentiomn that 2 of the 3 games ERC played vs Chats were 1 run games, not bad against a team that had 2 first round and 1 18th MLB picks.....

JB,
Chatsworth and Cleveland look pretty strong this season, but the Marmonte league is 15-6 outside league so far while the WVL is 8-6. Head to head there's not much to separate them as Chatsworth beat Calabasas and TO beat Cleveland.

Hey CADad Good luck tonight. My son won't be there.

MTS,
Sent you a PM.

CADad -

Sent you a PM....

Just curious what others think now that they have seen a few teams.

Northern CIF SS I think Oxnard is still the team to beat.

I saw Westlake play and they have some amazing athletes. Of the 25 on the roster only 4 are under 6'. Johnson looks like a top 4 rounder. 91+

Simi has not lost anything. T.O looks strong but have not seen them play, Westlake beat them however.

So from the Northern section I think Oxnard and Westlake will be teams to beat.

TO is still the team to beat. Nobody goes undefeated in the Marmonte League and TO just got in a loss early. Seeing how the teams who are playing in the stronger spring break tournaments do will tell a lot.

Oxnard really hasn't beaten anyone yet so there's no way to tell how good they are or aren't.

I just checked their schedule and you are right. Going forward the only tough team they play is Camarillo, and the rest are weak - very weak. Perfect scenario to get knocked off in the playoff's as soon as they play a close game.

Well, Westlake is looking good at 3-0 in league but I don't think they have the pitching depth to keep on this way. Simi's hitting is looking very strong so far as is Newbury Park's and Westlake's. Simi has jumped all over some very good pitchers in their last couple games. I still think TO's pitching will pull them through but you never know. They don't have the same type of depth they did last season.

Wow, TO will certainly tumble out of any national rankings after this last weekend. Interesting to see how they compete in the tournament.

BOF,
Oxnard isn't half bad as they came close to beating Westlake in the opening round of the St. Paul tournament.

My guess is that Notre Dame will take on either Simi or Westlake in the finals of that one.

TO played a team from our area, and did not do too well (lost a DH). What happened? Haven't they historically been loaded with talent?

My guess is that they were saving pitchers for the spring break tournament. They've got some good pitching but probably not quite the depth they had last year. Also that was a decent team they were playing and TO just doesn't seem to be at the top of their game right now. I'd have to see the lineups, but my impression is that TO doesn't play for rankings and uses the non-league games to develop players.

I don't know how they did in their opener against Lakewood in the Anaheim Lions tournament, but they beat Capistrano Valley 3-2 in their second game.

BTW, My predictions for the St. Paul's tournament turned out to be all wet. I was 0'fer on that one.

Interesting that in the PGCrosschecker rankings Crespi made a big move up after winning the National Classic, and Orange Lutheran made a move up after coming in 2nd. Bishop Gorman moved up to #1 after coming in second in their own tournament. Newbury Park won that tournament, beating Bishop Gorman in the finals and is not ranked. Personally, I don't believe NP really is a national power due to a lack of depth in their pitching staff, but based on results they probably earned their day in the sun in these latest rankings.

Maxpreps summary of the National Tournament:

http://www.maxpreps.com/FanPages/Content/Article.mxp/Ar...c9-bdde-6691ead4a1b2

Things are getting interesting in the Marmonte league. It looks like Westlake's lack of pitching depth is starting to show and don't look in the mirror but here comes TO. TO's next game will be a big one for them. Their pitching should shut down a Moorpark lineup that does well against mediocre pitching but has not fared well against hard throwers. On the other hand there's no guarantee they'll be able to solve Moorpark's pitching and the game could come down to who makes fewer errors.

Simi looks to have sewn up a playoff spot and will probably be 6-1 going into the second half as they are facing Agoura on Friday. Royal and Newbury Park is a bit of a tossup with Royal having the stronger pitching and Newbury Park having the stronger hitting. Westlake vs Calabasas depends a lot on who threw for Calabasas vs. Agoura on Wednesday. If Calabasas doesn't have Selarz to go against Westlake then Westlake has a big advantage.

Right now I'd pick Simi, Westlake, Royal and TO to make the playoffs but Newbury Park, Moorpark and even possibly Calabasas who has a shot any time Selarz is on the mound are certainly contenders.

Well, after the first half it is Simi, Westlake, Royal and TO. Newbury Park, Moorpark and Calabasas are still in it trailing Royal and TO by a game. Moorpark hit pretty well against TO's Johnson and could make a pretty strong run at it in the second half.

Wed.
TO vs Agoura - TO
Moorpark vs. NP - Tossup, depends on lefty vs. lefty matchups.
Westlake vs. Royal - Tossup, but I'll go w/ Royal since the game is at Royal
Simi vs. Calabasas - Tossup, but I'll go w/ Simi since they've seen Selarz once.

Fri.
Moorpark vs. Simi - Simi
NP vs Agoura - NP
TO vs Westlake - Tossup
Calabasas vs. Royal - Royal

Projected Records in league Simi 8-1, Westlake 6.5-2.5, Royal 6-3, NP 4.5 - 4.5, TO 5.5 - 3.5, Moorpark 3.5 - 5.5, Calabasas 3-6, Agoura 0-9

The teams are too closely matched for these predictions to mean anything but it is fun to see how they pan out. I'll compare the actuals on Saturday to see just how far off I was.

Looks like I did pretty well on the Wed. predictions. My new projection for records after Fri.

Simi 8-1, Royal 6-3, TO 6-3, Westlake 5-4, Moorpark 4-5, NP 4-5, Calabasas 3-6, Agoura 0-9.

Correct so far as TO and Simi won. Pretty good chance Royal and NP won, but we'll see.

Pretty much got them all right. Royal v. Calabasas was closer than expected. Don't know why Royal pulled Magill early. Next week there are too many tossup games and too many make or break games to try and call 'em. Looks like Westlake, Moorpark and NP are the bubble teams. Westlake and Moorpark still have games w/ Agoura.

No predictions but there are some important games in the Marmonte league today. If Moorpark beats Calabasas they are right back in the middle of the playoff hunt, if they lose it'll be a tough battle. It looks like Selarz will be throwing so a lot will depend on how well Calabasas supports Selarz in the field as I'd expect a solid effort from Moorpark's pitchers and for Moorpark to put a lot of pressure on Calabasas' defense.

Westlake v. NP is another biggie as Westlake has to stop their slide and NP can't afford to lose. Two good hitting teams going up against each other. It'll be interesting to see if the game being at Westlake with their quirky field gives Westlake the advantage.

Royal vs. Agoura should be a gimme, but you never know.

TO vs. Simi is not a must game for either team, but a win for TO would really position them for a playoff run.

At this point I'd say 8 wins guarantees a playoff spot and 7 has a chance. I wouldn't be surprised if the final playoff spot is decided by next week's Westlake v. Moorpark game. That should be an interesting game as Moorpark will probably shuffle their rotation to make sure they have their best available for that game, while Westlake will have the home field advantage.

Moorpark d. Calabasas
TO d. Simi
NP d. Westlake
Royal d. Agoura

Looks like Simi, TO and possibly Royal are locks with Moorpark, NP and Westlake tied for the final spot.

Friday should be interesting:
Moorpark v. Royal - Could go either way, depends on pitching matchups. Royal could have a big edge or small edge in pitching depending on who starts for Moorpark. In either case, Moorpark is swinging the bat lately and a win here would put Moorpark in the driver's seat for the last playoff spot.

Westlake v. Agoura - Just what the doctor ordered for a slumping Westlake

TO vs Calabasas - TO may not win the league, but they are rounding into shape for a CIF title run.

Simi v. Newbury Park - Two strong hitting teams, but NP probably doesn't have the pitching to keep Simi in check.

Agree with NP not sure how and why, but give them credit.

Westlake is a disappointment as I thought they looked really talented. As been said many times talent does not lead to W's.

Simi can bang the ball so look out to whoever plays them.

You have been right so far about TO, so how can I argue with your analysis.

Farther north.

Oxnard is showing some cracks in their armor. Camarillo killed them 11-1 and looks like they are getting in shape for the playoffs. Oxnard's final game is against Cam so it could decide league. Both will make playoffs.

St Bonnie is in control of a very weak league, so no news here. I think team is an enigma, they win, but have not played very many tough teams so who knows how they will do in the playoffs.

Santa Barbara and Dos Pueblos both will control the channel league. Santa Barbara may not have the pitching depth, but can win a critical game here and there. Ventura is bubble team for playoffs.

BOF,
Westlake seems to have the easiest schedule remaining, but Moorpark seems to be playing better baseball. Newbury Park has a tough schedule also. I just think playing Agoura when they do gives Moorpark flexibility in how they use their pitchers and that Moorpark has the strongest pitching of the three.

Moorpark plays St. Bonny on Saturday but I doubt they'll hold anyone back for that game if they need them on Friday, so the result of that game probably won't mean a whole lot.