Adjusting the 2022 recruiting timeline

Fellow 2022 grad dad myself, but my two are twins and middle infielders. Definitely looking forward to hearing what anyone in this range is hearing for the 2022s and what people's game plans are now

FWIW- at this time.....

My player is a LHP with excellent grades and a decent PSAT score (which will hopefully translate to a good SAT score in August(or whenever they get to test)) so he has better options than most.

We are in CA. He previously was looking on the East Coast just because of sheer number of HS opportunities, not so sure he wants to leave the West Coast now.  But finding a team to attend events in Georgia/Florida is no longer something we're looking at.  I am hoping for some small events over the summer.  He needs to do a PBR as soon as one is available to document velocity etc. Thinking July might be a go.  Already registered for Academic tryout for the AZ Fall Classic October 1.  Will probably add the September West Headfirst- there's no way they'll get the June ones in.  

I don't think the bloodbath will be as bad at the high academic level.  The best thing a kid can do right now is get bigger, stronger and faster.  If you are not a high academic kid I'd strongly start considering the JUCO route for 2021 and 2022's.  

d-mac posted:

I don't think the bloodbath will be as bad at the high academic level.  The best thing a kid can do right now is get bigger, stronger and faster.  If you are not a high academic kid I'd strongly start considering the JUCO route for 2021 and 2022's.  

JUCOs will be impacted for next couple of years as well?  Maybe the congestion will dissipate by fall of 2022. So that could be somewhat of an option that 2021's won't have as much as the 2022's. 

My 1 cents worth since the Corona economy has reduced my ability by 50%.  I will try to cover the areas that I have heard or talked to coaches about but again just my opinion because nobody knows at this point.  I think of all kids the HA kids are better but there will be more in the pool than before.  I think many other than Ivy's will still have an overflow of kids because of the extra year but not as many as others.  Have heard some entrance levels are higher and some are lower than pre-Corona.

P5 for 2021's.  The top 25% of P5 recruits will be okay because they are still the studs.  These are the scholarship kids and strong instate preferred walk-ons that are getting plenty without scholarships.  I do think the next 50% will be okay but may have to redshirt the first year, which is not a bad thing.  Son is a Corona freshman and I think he will be a better freshman next year than he was this year with one year of school behind him, a year of lifting and working out.  But as has been said if they are unrostered redshirts it is a tough "row to hoe."  If not from the south, that means it will be read tough year because you are having to do everything on your own.  The bottom 25% which will be walk-ons could be told sorry find somewhere else because I think even the fall groups will be so big they will not let them come to fall.

Other D1's I think fall in the same categories to some extent but the problem is there will be the bottom 25% of P5 guys and some of the middle 50% will drop down a level to compete freshman year rather than redshirt or be non-rostered.  D2, D3, and NAIA will be the same way but they will have mid-major D1's drop down also.

JUCO will be different.  They will recruit their tails off for the P5 guys and D1 guys probably telling them the doom and gloom stories of what this will do to their chances.  All levels of baseball will be good but I think the JUCO ball will be better for several years.   There will be some HS guys who were thinking draft this year that will run to JUCO to be able to be drafted next year.  That will happen more often over the next several years.

For the 2021's, I would be ready when it starts this summer.  I hear guys say their kids are not throwing and shut down because they aren't playing spring and maybe won't play summer.  Please don't take this to the Corona arguments, there are plenty of those on other threads.  But I have heard a lot of guys who run tournaments, showcases, and travel teams who think when the doors open hopefully in a few weeks in certain places they will be doing all the things and more they had planned this summer.  Some of the big boys may not and the colleges may not be able to but I know several that have negotiated to get fields for tournaments and showcases in May near me.  They would normally be on college campuses but will be on softball fields and the likes of private schools and such.  So the 2021's for sure that are uncommitted need to be ready to go.  Because I think once things open the timeline before showcases start will be very short.

Some will say that college coaches can't come but they can send other guys with video cameras, phones, stopwatches, and radar guns on their behalf.  The rules will get very blurred if baseball opens up and NCAA does not release college coaches to recruit.  I think some recruiting service guys and guys who have respect in the baseball community will make a lot of money real fast. 

Just my thoughts.

I agree with d-mac and Pitching fan that the HA schools won't have nearly the bottleneck that the other schools will see. Fewer seniors will come back that graduated, Ivy not allowing the fifth year, and a number of HA schools don't carry the maximum rosters to start. If their squads are bigger in number, they likely contain  a couple of walk-ons that made it through admissions.

Another 2022 LHP parent here.  Son is currently verbally committed to a P5.  I really think he'll be fine, but you never know and have even wondered if we should consider lowering the number of concurrent hours planned in case JUCO has to become the plan.

A lot of this depends on if the NCAA extends the roster and scholarship allowances beyond next year.  If they don't, the whole thing will wash out after next year, and things will be mostly normal for 2022s.  But I think we're in for a few more paradigm shifts.  Even if campuses are reopened, a lot of parents aren't going to send their kids this fall.  It looks like football is likely to be affected and schools are already slashing budgets.  Many schools have poor balance sheets and will have a hard time surviving as is.  Could be in for an entirely new landscape that we aren't currently envisioning.

LousyLefty posted:

FWIW- at this time.....

My player is a LHP with excellent grades and a decent PSAT score (which will hopefully translate to a good SAT score in August(or whenever they get to test)) so he has better options than most.

We are in CA. He previously was looking on the East Coast just because of sheer number of HS opportunities, not so sure he wants to leave the West Coast now.  But finding a team to attend events in Georgia/Florida is no longer something we're looking at.  I am hoping for some small events over the summer.  He needs to do a PBR as soon as one is available to document velocity etc. Thinking July might be a go.  Already registered for Academic tryout for the AZ Fall Classic October 1.  Will probably add the September West Headfirst- there's no way they'll get the June ones in.  

LL, NorCal or SoCal?

JCG posted:

LL, NorCal or SoCal?

SoCal.  Orange County.

Too soon to tell for 2022s. 

My guess would be that for the next four years there is going to be a surplus of talented players at the juco level. Coaches will scoop them up knowing they can get more mature, game ready guys and won't have to commit money for four years. 

Until the draft has a regular annual pattern again there really isn't a way for coaches to know what they're losing each year aka what they need to recruit. I would suspect a lot of the 2021s-2023s are going to be brought on as walk-ons with the understanding that once they know what money is leaving (draft, graduation) some will likely open up for them. 

Side note - those college tour scrimmages hosted by schools are actually very good for both programs and the college. It's essentially a vetted showcase. The coaches are there to watch the program while the club coach is in their ear saying hey I think Jimmy #26 can play here. He's a 6'3 shortstop with power to all fields. These other schools are interested in him, you might be too. Now they know who to look for.

Even if nothing comes of it, if the coach of the travel team has half a clue as to what he's doing that's a free easy connection he made right there that can be used towards younger guys coming up thru the program. The relationship is more important for the program than it being worth it for everybody on the team. Half of joining a program is to reap the benefits of those who laid the groundwork before you - as odd as it may seem. 

JCG posted:

LousyLefty posted:

FWIW- at this time.....

My player is a LHP with excellent grades and a decent PSAT score (which will hopefully translate to a good SAT score in August(or whenever they get to test)) so he has better options than most.

We are in CA. He previously was looking on the East Coast just because of sheer number of HS opportunities, not so sure he wants to leave the West Coast now.  But finding a team to attend events in Georgia/Florida is no longer something we're looking at.  I am hoping for some small events over the summer.  He needs to do a PBR as soon as one is available to document velocity etc. Thinking July might be a go.  Already registered for Academic tryout for the AZ Fall Classic October 1.  Will probably add the September West Headfirst- there's no way they'll get the June ones in.  

LL, NorCal or SoCal?

I asked because there is a local NorCal event that draws nearly every 4-year college program on the left coast. It's a great way to be seen without traveling.  I hope there are similar SoCal events.

for 2022 or any year, baseball advocates working on your players behalf are critical until scouting events start back up.   Video would follow closely behind.

Bigger,faster, stronger, and better is constant. Don't let up on grades during this nightmare.   Hard to gain ground back in the few remaining years of high school.  

and when events restart you will be ready to stand out from those who didn't take this time to improve.

My better and much smarter half got my 2022 kid SAT/ACT prep books when they went into distance learning. I am not sure when he will be able to take the test. He has not reached out to schools yet, he may be over analyzing it, at least he is thinking about is a victory imo. Not to be glib, but this is still an evolving sitch so I am relying on his summer travel program to help (they have connections to local colleges and host their own showcases). The kid barring injury will do fall ball now he used to skip it to bulk up and work on things but it looks like he will have 8 months of it.

JCG posted:

JCG posted:

LousyLefty posted:

FWIW- at this time.....

My player is a LHP with excellent grades and a decent PSAT score (which will hopefully translate to a good SAT score in August(or whenever they get to test)) so he has better options than most.

We are in CA. He previously was looking on the East Coast just because of sheer number of HS opportunities, not so sure he wants to leave the West Coast now.  But finding a team to attend events in Georgia/Florida is no longer something we're looking at.  I am hoping for some small events over the summer.  He needs to do a PBR as soon as one is available to document velocity etc. Thinking July might be a go.  Already registered for Academic tryout for the AZ Fall Classic October 1.  Will probably add the September West Headfirst- there's no way they'll get the June ones in.  

LL, NorCal or SoCal?

I asked because there is a local NorCal event that draws nearly every 4-year college program on the left coast. It's a great way to be seen without traveling.  I hope there are similar SoCal events.

I think not? Probably because we have statewide and national events down here?  We have Area Code games, MLB something in Compton. And I guess the PBR state games count?  Really wish we had built a relationship with a scout before all of this to get an invite to the AC games in case they are a go this summer.  
We had hoped to create some noise this spring with HS and build momentum from there.  He had a great start, but not enough starts to create buzz. 

Travel organizations do their own showcases; ours did, and they got all the in-state schools, and some from out of state.  I would imagine those will become more important, happen in mid-late summer, and being broadcast by PBR, ProspectWire, etc.  I imagine travel organizations are in trouble right now too, with parents out of work, events being cancelled, and refunds being a question, this would be a way for them to offer something to their players.

Parent of a 2022 RHP/MIF, HA route.  We are assuming most tournaments in June and early July will be canceled.  We are committed to a HF showcase in August and may also add a Showball in the Fall depending on feedback after September 1.  He is planning on taking the ACT/SAT in the November or December timeframe (assuming the schedule stays consistent) and plan on a busier summer of his rising senior year.  We live near several Patriot League schools, so we plan on having him attend school camps when/if they have them.  Don't know how else to proceed.  Travel coach is less worried about his HA 2022 kids, but he doesn't know what the trickle down will truly be.  

Until then, the boy is hitting every day, doing what he can to get stronger while we wait for all of the backordered gym equipment we ordered, and throwing to keep his arm engaged.  He worked very hard to make sure his arm was ready for his HS school season, but isn't on that same ramp plan now.  

Thanks for starting a string on the 2022 kids.  We all need to help each other understand how they'll be affected.

NCAA announced that high schools with pass/fail won't hurt athletes:

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/eligib.../COVID-19_Public.pdf

anotherparent posted:

NCAA announced that high schools with pass/fail won't hurt athletes:

http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/eligib.../COVID-19_Public.pdf

Great news! Seems like a pretty good stance.  

langra posted:

A lot of this depends on if the NCAA extends the roster and scholarship allowances beyond next year.  If they don't, the whole thing will wash out after next year, and things will be mostly normal for 2022s.  But I think we're in for a few more paradigm shifts.  Even if campuses are reopened, a lot of parents aren't going to send their kids this fall.  It looks like football is likely to be affected and schools are already slashing budgets.  Many schools have poor balance sheets and will have a hard time surviving as is.  Could be in for an entirely new landscape that we aren't currently envisioning.

There will be a lot of 2020’s pushed to Juco and the 2022’s will have to compete against those kids. 

Yes the quality of JuCo talent will go up. Our kids will learn to be the predator and not prey if they want to succeed in this crowded field. I am fortunate my kid is owning the process and I wish we had a more civil discourse when discussing efficiently using his time. I truly believe he started it, but my smarter/better half quickly breaks the spousal loyalty oath to remind me I asked how his day went, then when he replied, my follow up questions/suggestions for improvement started it. 

There will be a lot of 2020’s pushed to Juco and the 2022’s will have to compete against those kids. 

2020s still at JUCO level would have to be redshirt sophomores? I think there will be some but not terribly more than normal? (Who knows though). I think there will be a TON of 2021’s who cannot find a home during their senior year and opt to let the dust settle a little more by going JUCO route, kids that probably would have found interest under normal circumstances.  That will definitely impact 2022’s.  
I think one of the biggest things affecting 2022’s will be how many 2020 &2021’s find the uber competitive situation too much and throw in the towel.  Maybe it’s hoping for calmer waters on my part.

Hi All.  I'm new here and new in the process of HS baseball- my kid is a 2024.  I recently signed up for a camp in June with Top 96 (they provide a full refund if the camp is cancelled).  I hadn't previously heard of them, but then again I'm new to this recruiting thing.  I believe it's part of the Head First outfit.  Anyway, it seems that the Top 96 camps were going to be attracting local/regional colleges in each area they are held.  Which is the kind of thing A&M RC was saying on that Brady Bunch looking Zoom thing someone posted on a different thread.  

https://www.top96.com/baseball/

Top96 used to compete with HF and Showball but now, as you've seen, it's trying to fit a different, more regional niche, in partnership with HF.

My question is this: assuming many summer events are cancelled and fall events will be packed, I'm beginning to wonder how valuable fall camps will be for 2022s.  Those camps may be so full of 21's that 22s will get hardly any looks at all.

Any thoughts on this?

LousyLefty posted:

There will be a lot of 2020’s pushed to Juco and the 2022’s will have to compete against those kids. 

2020s still at JUCO level would have to be redshirt sophomores? I think there will be some but not terribly more than normal? (Who knows though). I think there will be a TON of 2021’s who cannot find a home during their senior year and opt to let the dust settle a little more by going JUCO route, kids that probably would have found interest under normal circumstances.  That will definitely impact 2022’s.  
I think one of the biggest things affecting 2022’s will be how many 2020 &2021’s find the uber competitive situation too much and throw in the towel.  Maybe it’s hoping for calmer waters on my part.

 

I meant that the 2020's will be graduating out of JUCO and finding new 4 year colleges.  The 2022's will have to compete against that pool of kids at the 4 year level. 

It's a great question.  My 22 is going to the northeast HF in August and will probably do a few fall school camps (depending on the feedback we get at HF or from his email/video campaigning).  I always assumed the 21s would get all of the attention, but it may be more so now.  Still, the boy needs to experience these types of events, make contacts, and hopefully catch an eye or two for his rising senior summer.  

That said, I still don't know how much the HA D3s (his likely path) are going to be affected by this.  

Top 96 has been around for a while. They were independent previously, then formed a partnership with Under Armour. Seems like there is a connection to HF. I found the camps very successful and well run. They were good with their flexibility as well. Son had a collision in CF the night (or two) before he was to attend a showcase and they allowed us to switch showcase dates/locations without penalty. Son was looking at HA schools and these showcases gave us an opportunity to look at a number of schools he was vetting and vice versa. 

Got good bang for buck. Son had been in contact with several schools in attendance so he was on their "clipboard" when he arrived. I believe he went to one Top 96 summer before his junior year and another early summer before his senior year. As you mentioned, several locations available results in less travel. Cost much less (1/2? of HF). The cost also used to vary per camp depending upon the # of schools there and what schools are in attendance.  Good luck.

Okay, so more than a year later...

Where are your '22s in their processes now, entering summer before senior year?  Will D3s be offering slots this summer, or wait until the fall?  Are D1 opportunities basically gone with the wind for this group?  Will college camps vs. showcases vs. travel tourneys this summer prove the most fruitful for the rising seniors?  What are your insights, thoughts, and gut feelings on this?  Under normal circumstances, everything on this site indicates that this would be go-time.

Son is a 2022, he's committed in March. On his summer team about 25% are committed, all D1. I'd imagine more will be committing soon. Still seems early for the D2/D3s around here.

@NotMadeOf$$ posted:

Okay, so more than a year later...

Where are your '22s in their processes now, entering summer before senior year?  Will D3s be offering slots this summer, or wait until the fall?  Are D1 opportunities basically gone with the wind for this group?  Will college camps vs. showcases vs. travel tourneys this summer prove the most fruitful for the rising seniors?  What are your insights, thoughts, and gut feelings on this?  Under normal circumstances, everything on this site indicates that this would be go-time.

My 2022 has received requests from coaches for admissions pre-read info from a few HA D3s. Can't really tell where the Ivy and other HA D1s are. He's gotten some positive feedback from several of them but they haven't even progressed from email to phone calls/text. Seem to still be moving pretty slow.

I wish we knew the answer to the camps vs showcase vs tourney question. We're supposed to go to Hoover, WWBA, and BCS, but I'm questioning how valuable they are for HA position players now that the schools can finally have their camps. Almost tempted to just short circuit the tourneys and just do HA showcases and school camps.

I would caution the JUCO Route at this time.  In my opinion we have a disproportionate number of posters here whose kids have had positive experiences with JUCO’s and have actually gotten playing time.

The logjam at JUCO’s is huge right now, and there are literally dozens of players who never play at most JUCO’s

You really need an honest assessment of where you are at, for a lot of kids it’s be better to be at a D3 that is a good fit academically and culturally & not playing, than at a JUCO and not playing.

(edit to add:  “not playing” as in on the roster, practicing and lifting with the team etc but literally never getting on the field in games)

Yes, the logjams are absolutely possible everywhere.  My 2021 has designs on playing D1 ball yet and is going the Juco route here in a few weeks.  But we looked at typical/historical roster sizes for all his targets and when things got serious with anyone, we asked tough questions about their roster sizes.  That is obviously no guarantee, but watching my son's soon-to-be future coach run with 36 guys this spring, was right in line what he told us during my son's visit a year ago.  JUCOs running with 45 and 50 guys on a roster?  Absolutely not a great idea.

My kid is meeting with a HA D3 coach when he gets back from wwba. They did a pre read and asked us to fill out a net price calculator...l can still feel the sting. I think they are going to offer. He is also in discussions with other HA D1s including Ivys. I don't think they are as serious as the kid thinks but they did ask for kid's summer sched. He will also attend a service academy camp, kinda surprised by that one, but they seem the most organized. Hopefully he will show well and likes the environment.

That's great news NYC!  Doggone right the academies are more organized.  I wish all the distractible coaches my three boys have had to/are dealing with would be forced to go to boot camp, make their beds and stow their lockers like a Marine lifer.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6fVaP6dM1fs    That's right, sailor.

Ah, the dreaded net price calculator. Every time I fill one out I feel like I'm poking a fire with my bare hand.

The roster size issue at some d3s is just as complicated as at it is at other levels because so many kids took this year off.  Swarthmore is usually 32-35 but next year Coach projects 45.  Ugh.

@smokeminside posted:

The roster size issue at some d3s is just as complicated as at it is at other levels because so many kids took this year off.  Swarthmore is usually 32-35 but next year Coach projects 45.  Ugh.

very true.  All the more reason to go somewhere where the fit is about more than just Baseball.

@3and2Fastball posted:

very true.  All the more reason to go somewhere where the fit is about more than just Baseball.

Ding! Ding! Ding!  We have a winner !!

This has always been the best advice but never more than now. The hard truth is that even BEFORE Covid the recruiting process was tricky and very often didn’t end up well for many players and families. AFTER Covid the recruiting process is tricky on steroids and numbers don’t lie. There are thousands more good players than there are college baseball roster spots. More people than ever are going to be disappointed - especially if you are in denial about what has happened to the marketplace of college baseball. If you have a ‘22, ‘23, ‘24, etc. there is plenty of advice in numerous threads on here about what to do. But by all means, do something. Your odds will be better if you develop a new game plan.

@adbono posted:

Ding! Ding! Ding!  We have a winner !!

This has always been the best advice but never more than now. The hard truth is that even BEFORE Covid the recruiting process was tricky and very often didn’t end up well for many players and families. AFTER Covid the recruiting process is tricky on steroids and numbers don’t lie. There are thousands more good players than there are college baseball roster spots. More people than ever are going to be disappointed - especially if you are in denial about what has happened to the marketplace of college baseball. If you have a ‘22, ‘23, ‘24, etc. there is plenty of advice in numerous threads on here about what to do. But by all means, do something. Your odds will be better if you develop a new game plan.

10 months ago, as my son was making his final decision on a commitment, I was especially thankful for the HSBBW and all the smart advice provided here.

For him it came down to two D3’s.  Both he visited, both gave good offers of academic scholarship money.  One was mostly a Baseball school that was only a good fit in that they consistently compete for the D3 National Championship.  The other is a HA D3 that checked every box in terms of academics, culture, as well as a very good Baseball program that isn’t a National powerhouse but is competitive.

Ultimately it was his decision, of course.  I gave him space to think it through, but when he did want to talk to me about his choices, I tried to patiently relay to him what I learned here and from just reading the college Baseball “tea leaves”:  that D3 title contender has always had plenty of D1 drop downs and JUCO transfers, and utilizes Gray Shirts and Red Shirts (they even talked to him about the possibilities of redshirting during his visit).  I explained to my son, that will only increase after Covid.  

I told him, “look, I know you are confident in yourself.  You should be.  You know you can play.  And you have to be confident to play Baseball.  But just in case you don’t end up getting much playing time, or if you don’t play until you are a Junior or a Senior, where are you going to be happiest?  Where are you going to be studying something that inspires you?”

A week or so later he chose the HA D3.  He decided to do early decision and the coach found even more scholarship money for him than we were expecting.  His Mom and I are thrilled.  Will he play there?  Eventually, probably?  But we know he’s going to get a great education.

My kid bit on a HA lower D1 - travel coach tried to talk him out of it but the academic fit is perfect and he wants to be there. That's all I wanted to hear