All Hype-Where is the performance?

How is Cole not getting the job done? I beleive that he has more upside than Bauer, where they are drafted will mean more in their bonus demands and what a team prefers more than the differences in their stats.

If my team, the Indians, take Gerrit Cole, I am not upset.

If I were doing the drafting however, I take Bauer. I believe he is the better player even if Cole potentially has more upside.

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Big picture...

Stats are a objective measurement(generally)...

The draft is a subjective measurement...

It's all in the eyes of the beholder/bonus payer/pundit...

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At 100mph, he should remain the #1 choice for the first pick Pirates, unless they cannot afford him.

One more thing, Will Bauer's differences translate into ML success, the college game is much different than the pro game.

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:
How is Cole not getting the job done? I beleive that he has more upside than Bauer, where they are drafted will mean more in their bonus demands and what a team prefers more than the differences in their stats.

How is not getting the job done? He has a 6-8 record and lost to the #4 seed last night. Ever since he blew off the Yankess 3 years ago as their #1 pick we have heard about his upside. When does upside and hype translate to wins? Bauer's numbers crush his. Double the win's, 1/3 of his era, 50% more k's. Plus Bauer is younger as he graduating from high school a year early.

I am with my fellow Buckeye on this and easily would take Bauer for the Tribe as well over Cole.

**** Moderator note: HSBBW policy is not to post amateur players names if the thread could be harmful to them. ****

quote:

Originally posted by Mark B:
Why wouldn't Bauer be a slam dunk to get chosen before Cole?

The scouts probably see a higher ceiling in Cole.

quote:

Originally posted by Mark B:

quote:

Originally posted by TPM:
How is Cole not getting the job done? I beleive that he has more upside than Bauer, where they are drafted will mean more in their bonus demands and what a team prefers more than the differences in their stats.

How is not getting the job done? He has a 6-8 record and lost to the #4 seed last night. Ever since he blew off the Yankess 3 years ago as their #1 pick we have heard about his upside. When does upside and hype translate to wins? Bauer's numbers crush his. Double the win's, 1/3 of his era, 50% more k's. Plus Bauer is younger as he graduating from high school a year early.

I am with my fellow Buckeye on this and easily would take Bauer for the Tribe as well over Cole.

Because his team didn't hit yesterday, he lacks performance?

With the number of hits he has vs Bauer only indicates he pitches differently. I haven't seen either pitch but I am going to go out on a limb that one relies more on his FB and the other with off speed, etc. That makes them different. Does Cole induce more ground balls that turn into runs rather than more strike outs?

He also went from a 30 something pick to most likely #1 and needed a lot of maturing.

Again, wins/losses as a college pitcher is not an indicator that someone is better than another.

I agree that college stats don't necessarily translate to pro performance. That said, I've seen them both pitch about three times each which is obviously a small sample size. I like Bauer because he seems to get more movement on his pitches. His fastball does not seem quite as flat as Cole. I think Bauer is a better pitcher.

PG - what's your take?

quote:

Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
I agree that college stats don't necessarily translate to pro performance. That said, I've seen them both pitch about three times each which is obviously a small sample size. I like Bauer because he seems to get more movement on his pitches. His fastball does not seem quite as flat as Cole. I think Bauer is a better pitcher.

PG - what's your take?

Things like movement can be worked on. Bauer may be a bit tougher mentally, which is a plus.

I would be interested in PG's take too!

"Getting the job done." Interesting topic to me. Fans and parents definitions and use of that phrase to "project" are often very different than reality.

My younger son just finished his HS career. 24-4 lifetime record in HS in one of the best HS leagues on the West Coast. All kinds of championships including #1 ranking in several national polls last year. ERA this year of 1.06 w/ 106 Ks and only 17 walks. Three pitches for strikes. An opposing area HS coach was quoted in the paper last week as saying, "he's one of the best pitchers I've ever seen."

He freakin' "gets the job done!"

Most of the area scouts know him...seem to even like him and think he'll do well in college. But he won't be drafted. Barely 6 ft., RHP in the high 80's...maybe touched 90 a few times. At this time, he 'gets the job done,' but doesn't 'project' to an MLB level. He might in 3 or 4 years, but not now.

My older son is in double-A ball. Over the past two years he has won more minor league games than any other pitcher. 30-9 over those two years. Led his organization both years in wins, 2nd last year in strikeouts.

He too, freakin' "gets the job done!"

He gets promoted about a level a year (low-A to high-A to double-A). He's not on any fast track to the big leagues. 88-91 (more 88 than 91) with 3 pitches for strikes including a nasty change. He 'gets the job done,' but there remains doubt about what his role would be at the big league level (5th starter or long reliever?) and whether or not 88-91 can even survive there?

I believe these two sons can 'get the job done' at their next steps, but I also 'get it' as to why the scouts/experts are more cautious. Yes, they really "get the job done" as well or better than any of their peers, but they will have to prove it at each next step.

The thin line between Cole and Bauer is really, REALLY thin. And scouting is never quite right...sometimes even bad (13th round pick for older son indicates that most didn't think he would even made it to double-A). But scouting is still better, on average, than us fans and so I have no issue with scouts not focusing on "getting it done" but instead on how these two project (body type, velocity, maturity (an issue for both of these), projectability of their arsenal of pitches, etc...).

BTW, Bauer wouldn't have won last night's game either. Might have tied it, 0-0, but he wouldn't have won it.

Time will tell who was right and wrong on these two. But its really not about wins and losses and ERA at this particular time. In fact, that might not even matter a whole lot for either of them until the voting for the Cy Young when they're BOTH in the big leagues.

justbb - fabulous post. You are the GM. Who do you take - Bauer or Cole?

I like Bauer better...but I'm just a fan!

Great post JBB!

I just don't think that criticism is fair of any non professional player that has had tons of pressure placed upon him and not performing to anyone's (in this case the OP) expectations.

I happen to like Bauer too, I think he's tougher (mentally) that's needed at the next level, but not necessarily better "stuff".

JMO.

There both studs. Just because Bauer is on the same staff and has better numbers should not diminish the ability of Cole. Who is better? Right now the numbers suggest Bauer. Who will be the better pro? That has yet to be decided and I do not think the numbers in college are a slam dunk indicator at all.

I don't get to see them very often on TV. Only a couple of times for both. But you can bet if they are pitching I make sure I watch them. Electric stuff that is simply fun to watch.

quote:

Originally posted by ClevelandDad:
I agree that college stats don't necessarily translate to pro performance. That said, I've seen them both pitch about three times each which is obviously a small sample size. I like Bauer because he seems to get more movement on his pitches. His fastball does not seem quite as flat as Cole. I think Bauer is a better pitcher.

PG - what's your take?


Things like movement can be worked on. Bauer may be a bit tougher mentally, which is a plus.

I would be interested in PG's take too!

OK, here are my opinions, FWIW

If I had a game tomorrow I would pick Bauer right now. However, earlier in the year Cole was considered the number one pitching prospecxt for this year's draft and for very good reason.

I actually haven't seen much of Gerritt this year, but before this year he had the best "stuff" I've ever seen in an amateur pitcher. His fastball had exceptional life and was far from straight. His breaking ball was devestating and I still think his changeup might end up being his best pitch at the ML level. Three ++ pitches and upper 90s velocity with life. I actually thought Cole was the top pitcher in the draft coming out of high school. I'm sure he would have went much earlier in the first round had he been more signable. In fact, he turned down millions from the Yankees to attend UCLA.

Command will dictate his future. Like many power pitchers, hitters tend to take more pitches. This causes problems in two ways. Lots of hitters counts (too many 2-0, 3-1 counts) and it drives up the pitch counts. Great stuff out of the zone is worthless unless the hitter swings. That most often happens when the pitcher is ahead in the count.

I'm surprised by his season this year. I'm sure it has been a concern to some scouting departments. Maybe it's a case of "draftitis" and once the draft is over we will see the domination we expect.

Anyway, both pitchers (Cole and Bauer)are likely top 5-10 picks IMO. Bauer is outstanding, no question about it. However, if it were my money being spent, I'd pick Gerritt Cole provided he is healthy. I invision him as a dominating #1 in the rotation guy. Some might see Bauer in the same light. That curve ball is a doozy.

In the end, you have to try to guess how well their ability translates to the Major Leagues. In that regard I would take Cole over any other pitcher in this draft. Then probably Danny Hultzen or Dylan Bundy. After that, based on ability alone, it would be Bauer near the top of a group of several. Archie Bradley, Jose Fernandez, Sonny Gray, Taylor Jungmann, Daniel Norris,Alex Meyer,Jed Bradley, Taylor Guerrieri, Robert Stephenson, Dillon Howard, and there are others, not in any specific order.

This is a great draft year for pitchers. Guys who would normally be easy first round picks are likely to be dissapointed.

Also I would pick Matt Purke in a heartbeat right near the top if I had a complete medical on him. If healthy he is as good as anyone.

Mentioning these names, I'm sure I've missed someone. And never take anything I might say as the Gospel.

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"And never take anything I might say as the Gospel."

I hear ya' Brother Jerry!



Now how 'bout asking the big guy upstairs for some help with this pitchin' mound?




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I hate to chime in after PG...I can't compete with him, however, here is my two cents. We all know that Cole and Bauer have generally been 1A and 1B on the mound for the Bruins the past couple of years. You have to remember that Cole has been the Friday Night starter, and therefore, has been facing the opponents Friday starter as well. Yes, he lost to the #4 seeded USF Dons (West Coast Conference Champs) 3-0 last night. Gerrit Cole battled for 7.1 innings striking out 11 batters, while scattering eleven hits. Not the best line score for a potential number one guy...but let's not forget, Cole isn't receiving any offensive support from his team. The Dons #1 pitcher (Zimmer) dominated the Bruins lineup. The UCLA opponents Friday starter(s) have been shutting their offense down all year long, and that's the biggest reason for Cole's Sub .500 record on the bump.

I like Bauer, he may end up being another Lincecum in a couple years? But it's tough to argue with a 6'4" Power arm that has touched triple digits a few times this year! They are both amazing pitchers, but I'm rooting for another team to come out of the Los Angeles Regional this weekend...Rip Em Eaters!!!

It's almost like saying who do you like better - John Smoltz or Greg Maddux. Both hall of famers but different styles. I doubt anyone would ever say that Greg Maddux has the type of fastball that Gerrit Cole does but that in no way reduced his effectiveness. Sometimes the scouts get caught up in the eye-popping tools and lose sight of who the better player is. Sometimes the better player is the luckier one - the one more likely to stay healthy. Tim Lincecum (in hindsight) should have been the first player taken in his draft class but he wasn't. There's more to it than merely figuring out who has the best tools.