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PlayWithEffort posted:

Bacdorslider: That’s awesome! Wow! Congratulations!

Go44: Sorry for the unlucky break in the weather. Can’t go wrong with the decision to stay or head to homecoming. Both are great experiences.

There’s a lot of posters with talented kids in this thread. I just wanted to post here with to rub elbows with them. Maybe some of this “greatness” will rub off .

I’ve enjoyed following this topic and the event itself. It’s an event my son hopes to attend in the future.

May I rub shoulders with you guys too? My kid could use the help.

Son only got one game/three at-bats in Jupiter because of 1) football (flew in Saturday morning) and 2) the rain (we didn’t get a consolation game) but had an absolute blast. 

He got a great wisdom impartation from the “Crime Dog” which was the highlight of his weekend.  Really cool because son swings lefty as well.

By the way, the guy looks like he could hit another 493 HR’s. I’m not joking!

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Elijah posted:
hshuler posted:
Elijah posted:

He threw a Perfect Game at Juniper. I need clarity. 

Yes,BACDORSLIDER’s son threw a PG in Jupiter. 77 pitches, 14 K’s, 74 percent strikes. 

Exactly. Wow. I know the tourney is bigger than the prize, but I still would love to know how that discussion went down. 

If you look back at all the MVPs/MVPitchers, in all their tourneys, you'll find that 99.9% of the time, they come from the championship team or the championship team and runner up.  No different here (MVP from runner up, MVPitcher from champs).

Simply MUCH more weight put on performance deep in bracket, where there is a much greater likelihood that opponent was strong, than in pool where it could be hit or miss. (don't take this to mean I agree, just pointing out the facts)

Same as it ever was . . . 

Last edited by Nuke83
Nuke83 posted:
Elijah posted:
hshuler posted:
Elijah posted:

He threw a Perfect Game at Juniper. I need clarity. 

Yes,BACDORSLIDER’s son threw a PG in Jupiter. 77 pitches, 14 K’s, 74 percent strikes. 

Exactly. Wow. I know the tourney is bigger than the prize, but I still would love to know how that discussion went down. 

If you look back at all the MVPs/MVPitchers, in all their tourneys, you'll find that 99.9% of the time, they come from the championship team or the championship team and runner up.  No different here (MVP from runner up, MVPitcher from champs).

Simply MUCH more weight put on performance deep in bracket, where there is a much greater likelihood that opponent was strong, than in pool where it could be hit or miss. (don't take this to mean I agree, just pointing out the facts)

Same as it ever was . . . 

I get that. All makes sense. Just amazed the kid through a perfect game at such an important event. Very, very cool. Surprised his team did not do better but I guess that just shows the level of competition. 

My son's team had the opposite problem. So much pitching depth it cost us in the first round of the playoffs

We did t have a single pitcher throw more than three innings and we're still loaded with pitching after pool. However, we had so many good arms that when we run ruled a team in the last pool game, we still had four PO's who hadn't thrown at all. My son was supposed to start the first round of playoffs, but he had to get those last few pitchers some innings and we fell behind early and left a lot of 90-95 mph arms on the bench.

bacdorslider posted:

94 is the new 90

I was recently reading a story from the Chicago Tribune from 1990. The subject of the article was an area scout for the Cubs, but it was written with his focus on the scout recruiting Scott Brocail (younger brother of Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail). The Brocails both played at my son's high school down here in the sticks, a 3 1/2 hour drive from Denver with no population at all in between. The night he was being interviewed, there were a half dozen scouts in the stands and they made a big deal out of him hitting 90mph on their guns. His dad told the reporter it was the first time and that Doug had never hit 90 in high school. Our school had a freshman that same year that ended up a first round draft pick out of high school and had a 13yr career in the majors that was just barely hitting 90 his senior year.

The take away from that article was how excited scouts were just a couple of decades a go to find guys in the upper eighties who could touch 90. Last week, I saw 90's at every glance.

Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats.

If your kids want a job in baseball, there you go. This is happening on the college and professional level.

Both of these WS teams draft on track man stats. Some say that seeing their success, will change the professional game from this week forward.

I don't know if anyone heard during the playoffs about Verlander coming to Houston and working with a rehab guy on his delivery. He even said in an interview he made changes to his slider. I believe those changes were made through track man evaluation. 

I am going to assume the same for Kershaw.

Because of new technology, I believe you will be seeing more Altuve type guys get drafted.

I spoke to a scout while in Jupiter who told me that their organization has an actual cutoff number for fastball spin rate. Anything under that and they will not consider the pitcher. I spoke to a few agents and scouts while there and heard a lot of talk about TM statistics. Always about pitchers, though. Whoever earlier mentioned keeping your ears open was spot on. I overheard so many mind blowing conversations it was crazy.

All of the emphasis for pitchers seemed to be on high spin rates. For my son, this becomes an issue because a lot of his success is really based on an absurdly low spin rate (averages 1700 rpm on his fastball). 

Root,

So I understand TM will help hitters in trajectory. I am not sure what that means. I was using Altuve as an example because he is small, but he knows how to maximize his potential. Many times these guys are overlooked.

For pitchers it will always be about height. And yes, spin rate.

TPM posted:

Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats.

If your kids want a job in baseball, there you go. This is happening on the college and professional level.

Both of these WS teams draft on track man stats. Some say that seeing their success, will change the professional game from this week forward.

I don't know if anyone heard during the playoffs about Verlander coming to Houston and working with a rehab guy on his delivery. He even said in an interview he made changes to his slider. I believe those changes were made through track man evaluation. 

I am going to assume the same for Kershaw.

Because of new technology, I believe you will be seeing more Altuve type guys get drafted.

TPM - I had dinner recently with a former scout and he basically predicted what you just shared.

He basically said that if (this was a couple of weeks ago) the Astros and Dodgers made the World Series, it would be the end for a lot of old school scouts because both orgs were heavy into analytics. 

roothog66 posted:

I spoke to a scout while in Jupiter who told me that their organization has an actual cutoff number for fastball spin rate. Anything under that and they will not consider the pitcher. I spoke to a few agents and scouts while there and heard a lot of talk about TM statistics. Always about pitchers, though. Whoever earlier mentioned keeping your ears open was spot on. I overheard so many mind blowing conversations it was crazy.

All of the emphasis for pitchers seemed to be on high spin rates. For my son, this becomes an issue because a lot of his success is really based on an absurdly low spin rate (averages 1700 rpm on his fastball). 

I believe that really high or really low are both good. 

roothog66 posted:
bacdorslider posted:

94 is the new 90

I was recently reading a story from the Chicago Tribune from 1990. The subject of the article was an area scout for the Cubs, but it was written with his focus on the scout recruiting Scott Brocail (younger brother of Rangers pitching coach Doug Brocail). The Brocails both played at my son's high school down here in the sticks, a 3 1/2 hour drive from Denver with no population at all in between. The night he was being interviewed, there were a half dozen scouts in the stands and they made a big deal out of him hitting 90mph on their guns. His dad told the reporter it was the first time and that Doug had never hit 90 in high school. Our school had a freshman that same year that ended up a first round draft pick out of high school and had a 13yr career in the majors that was just barely hitting 90 his senior year.

The take away from that article was how excited scouts were just a couple of decades a go to find guys in the upper eighties who could touch 90. Last week, I saw 90's at every glance.

I recently posted on here an article from 15 years ago, Anatomy of an Area Code Tryout. Touching 90 was a really big deal.

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

The spin rates and other newer metrics can create more interest or less interest in some cases.  However there is a reason all those scouts travel to Jupiter. In many cases the entire scouting dept of organizations. They could all stay home, save a ton of money, and get the trackmam numbers if that was all there was to it.

Most of the top pitchers in the ML were drafted or signed before the spin rates and other metrics were available.  So the new technology is new and it will take some time to determine its true value. For example Kershaws curve ball doesn't grade high on spin rate.

We are friends with the owners and President of Trackman.  They both understand there is a lot more data required before they can accurately predict success or failure. So right now it is important information, and each year it gets more important. It's just not quite stand alone information. And doubtful it ever will be the only thing clubs will depend on.

 

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

Not in disagreement, just grouping my thoughts on analytics with yours.  I think sabermetrics/analytics/data is misunderstood by many.  Analytics for game strategy/lineups/matchups is just data to make decisions with.  Baseball managers and coaches still make the decisions. And they still manage people.  The people change (get more selective at the plate, add a new pitch, get better at baseball).  The managers know this.

Just as business has been changed in the last 20 years with more data available for managers, they still have to make decisions based on the management data they are given.  And the people they have to implement him.

My gut feel is Girardi was fired because he disagreed with the Analytics group on player/strategy decisions because he knew the people.

 

I think the transition to analytics-driven management will be very difficult because it moves control from the manager (experience-based, player relationship-based, gut-based decision making) to the front office, or at least it involves the front office in game decision more so than in the past.  It's always difficult when power shifts in an organization and not everyone survives these shifts.

Smitty28 posted:

I think the transition to analytics-driven management will be very difficult because it moves control from the manager (experience-based, player relationship-based, gut-based decision making) to the front office, or at least it involves the front office in game decision more so than in the past.  It's always difficult when power shifts in an organization and not everyone survives these shifts.

No, easy.  Front office fires the current manager, and hires one with new job requirements on decision making and has a background in analytics.

Go44dad posted:
Smitty28 posted:

I think the transition to analytics-driven management will be very difficult because it moves control from the manager (experience-based, player relationship-based, gut-based decision making) to the front office, or at least it involves the front office in game decision more so than in the past.  It's always difficult when power shifts in an organization and not everyone survives these shifts.

No, easy.  Front office fires the current manager, and hires one with new job requirements on decision making and has a background in analytics.

Sure, then fire the coaching staff, maybe a bunch of scouts, maybe a bunch of minor league staff until everyone is on board, then hope you win and hang on to your fan base.  And who are all these proven winning managers that meet these new job requirements?  These things take time and often involve lots of turmoil.

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