All things Jupiter?

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Advancement in tech has always reduced and redefined the work force. Scouting is not immune to this. The better ones will adapt.

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Fair enough, no disrespect taken. 

Here’s a direct quote from a former scout on the topic: “non baseball people doing baseball things” I guess I should have said “those who refuse to embrace analytics could be replaced by those who do.”

I know a few ‘old school’ scouts for lack of a better term, including my former college coach. I firmly believe that the best/most successful scouts can see things that others don’t. I also believe that particular data points can tell a part of the story. I don’t know what analytics will do to the scouting community but I’ve been told that it will have a negative impact on those who don’t embrace it. Again, this is someone’s opinion (albeit someone with lots of credibility in the baseball world) and obviously, they could be wrong. 

Based on some posts that there were games with only a couple of scouts present. For those who attended, I what would you estimate the percentage of players in attendance were college ready? 

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Fair enough, no disrespect taken. 

Here’s a direct quote from a former scout on the topic: “non baseball people doing baseball things” I guess I should have said “those who refuse to embrace analytics could be replaced by those who do.”

I know a few ‘old school’ scouts for lack of a better term, including my former college coach. I firmly believe that the best/most successful scouts can see things that others don’t. I also believe that particular data points can tell a part of the story. I don’t know what analytics will do to the scouting community but I’ve been told that it will have a negative impact on those who don’t embrace it. Again, this is someone’s opinion (albeit someone with lots of credibility in the baseball world) and obviously, they could be wrong. 

I think you are close to spot on there, old school will have to embrace it to some degree and some of the numbers of scouts may well go down (full disclosure I have done a tremendous amount of work in automation so I fully understand the work force scale back) but players are found all over the world and in all shapes and sizes... numbers don't give heart, scouts always will be important IMO and they may need to use modified methods of how they evaluate...but they still will ultimately be critical to the process.

Son is using Trackman now and they it is impacting he approach and application of the pitches he throws. Always had high spin rate on 4 seam (4th highers in Jupiter) and CB ( Top 10 in Jupiter) but he is able to recognize his arm slot per pitch and manipulate that to improve deception. 

Cool stuff.

As i read the volleys above i think of the scene in Moneyball (the movies always embellish things of course) of the room of old school scouts and the bah humbug attitude of analytics and Brad Pitt buying in with Jonah Hill on the analytics. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtumWOsgFXc

Shoveit4Ks posted:

Son is using Trackman now and they it is impacting he approach and application of the pitches he throws. Always had high spin rate on 4 seam (4th highers in Jupiter) and CB ( Top 10 in Jupiter) but he is able to recognize his arm slot per pitch and manipulate that to improve deception. 

Cool stuff.

As i read the volleys above i think of the scene in Moneyball (the movies always embellish things of course) of the room of old school scouts and the bah humbug attitude of analytics and Brad Pitt buying in with Jonah Hill on the analytics. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtumWOsgFXc

it was a great movie...when was the last time the A's won WS? LOL I know they have budget problems but the game is more then just numbers, it is a combination.

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Fair enough, no disrespect taken. 

Here’s a direct quote from a former scout on the topic: “non baseball people doing baseball things” I guess I should have said “those who refuse to embrace analytics could be replaced by those who do.”

I know a few ‘old school’ scouts for lack of a better term, including my former college coach. I firmly believe that the best/most successful scouts can see things that others don’t. I also believe that particular data points can tell a part of the story. I don’t know what analytics will do to the scouting community but I’ve been told that it will have a negative impact on those who don’t embrace it. Again, this is someone’s opinion (albeit someone with lots of credibility in the baseball world) and obviously, they could be wrong. 

I think you are close to spot on there, old school will have to embrace it to some degree and some of the numbers of scouts may well go down (full disclosure I have done a tremendous amount of work in automation so I fully understand the work force scale back) but players are found all over the world and in all shapes and sizes... numbers don't give heart, scouts always will be important IMO and they may need to use modified methods of how they evaluate...but they still will ultimately be critical to the process.

 

To your point, the one thing that this gentlemen talked about a lot was “makeup.” Ironically, he talked at length about two specific players currently playing in the World Series. 

Data points only provide part of the story and I believe this is why PGStaff said that many teams send their entire scouting departments. There are things that numbers can’t measure so I agree, human intuition and things that can only be seen through human perception will never be eliminated from the process. 

old_school posted:

Shoveit4Ks posted:

Son is using Trackman now and they it is impacting he approach and application of the pitches he throws. Always had high spin rate on 4 seam (4th highers in Jupiter) and CB ( Top 10 in Jupiter) but he is able to recognize his arm slot per pitch and manipulate that to improve deception. 

Cool stuff.

As i read the volleys above i think of the scene in Moneyball (the movies always embellish things of course) of the room of old school scouts and the bah humbug attitude of analytics and Brad Pitt buying in with Jonah Hill on the analytics. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DtumWOsgFXc

it was a great movie...when was the last time the A's won WS? LOL I know they have budget problems but the game is more then just numbers, it is a combination.

Great movie.  Analytics plus Mulder, Hudson, Zito, Harang, Koch, Tejeda, Chavez, and Dye.  Didn't hear those guys mentioned much, or at all.

Sticking point for the movie for me was their representation of "Old School" as a fat, bumbling, tobacco spitting man.  I understand this was necessary for the plot.  Art Howe was a very good man and a very good baseball player.

But I get the premise of the movie.

(Note to no one in particular: "Old School" reference has nothing to do with my good friend and esteemed hsbbwebber old_school.)

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Fair enough, no disrespect taken. 

Here’s a direct quote from a former scout on the topic: “non baseball people doing baseball things” I guess I should have said “those who refuse to embrace analytics could be replaced by those who do.”

I know a few ‘old school’ scouts for lack of a better term, including my former college coach. I firmly believe that the best/most successful scouts can see things that others don’t. I also believe that particular data points can tell a part of the story. I don’t know what analytics will do to the scouting community but I’ve been told that it will have a negative impact on those who don’t embrace it. Again, this is someone’s opinion (albeit someone with lots of credibility in the baseball world) and obviously, they could be wrong. 

I think you are close to spot on there, old school will have to embrace it to some degree and some of the numbers of scouts may well go down (full disclosure I have done a tremendous amount of work in automation so I fully understand the work force scale back) but players are found all over the world and in all shapes and sizes... numbers don't give heart, scouts always will be important IMO and they may need to use modified methods of how they evaluate...but they still will ultimately be critical to the process.

 

To your point, the one thing that this gentlemen talked about a lot was “makeup.” Ironically, he talked at length about two specific players currently playing in the World Series. 

Data points only provide part of the story and I believe this is why PGStaff said that many teams send their entire scouting departments. There are things that numbers can’t measure so I agree, human intuition and things that can only be seen through human perception will never be eliminated from the process. 

Altuve and Bregman!

Altuve and Correa?

Here are my thoughts...

Advanced analytics allows you to crunch through the numbers faster. That’s the high speed computing side of the equation. This allows one to benefit from using using advanced models to tune and identify the attributes (spin rate, velo, 60 time or whatever the metric is) that you feel are valuable (what if analysis) or get proven, over time, to be valuable (data driven analysis).

My opinion is that you may see an initial drop in the number of scouts initially but they will be added back over time. This is just an educated guess on my part. The reason for this “guess” is that people tend to over estimate the benefit of using the analytics initially and underestimate the number of people that will be needed to interpret the data that is produced. That’s why I think that , over time, the resources (scouts) will drop off initially due to managements attempt at cost savings and then build them back up in numbers when the data produced from the analytics starts to overwhelm their existing staff. 

After all, the scouts still need to see someone play to prove out and verify the numbers while evaluating the players overall skill set, makeup, character and the other intangibles that may be valuable to the organization. If the data output is produced at a rate faster than the scouts can keep up, the org may need to add more scouts. The scouts that embrace the technological advances will, in my opinion, improve their opportunities to be more desirable to the teams they are scouting for to find players. 

Yeah, no intent on my end to draw parallels with scouts/members on here, just thought about that scene and then on the other side of it, thought about Trouble with the Curve and Ole Clint's role as the anti-analytics, proven scout who knows the game. Love that movie. I don't know enough about baseball and scouting to weigh in on the serious aspects of scouting or management of them, i  just know i still enjoy watching it regardless of what Colin Cowherd says.

well said effort!

I love the scene in Moneyball where BB walks into Howes office and says play so and so at 1b, Howe all but ignores him and says roughly in a tone of total contempt I make the lineup and Giambi plays 1b...and BB says I just traded him to philly!! In my professional career I have been on both sides of that conversation, I thought the exchange was awesome and obviously much more fun from BB side of the conversation!!

I do think the role of Howe was given a poor and misleading portrayal but it was NEEDED for the movie to be good!

Go44dad posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

hshuler posted:

old_school posted:

analytics are huge and will grow in importance. That being said they won't replace people IMO. The best teams still have the intangibles, guys who work together and are teammates. The organizations who ultimately are going to be most successful will be the ones who blend the new data, with old tried and true successful models and then mold those assets in a productive fashion...

I think what TPM said is the key. Those who embrace analytics and learn how to effectively use them will stick. Those who refuse to accept that they provide valuable information will have to find a new profession. 

with all due respect, no that isn't what was said, what was said is quoted below. I agree electronic stats are important and I totally disagreed they were going to replace people. Typically I don't believe in blanket statements like these. 

 

"Scouting is going to be a thing of the past. It's all about Track man.

One unnamed organization just let 10 scouts go.  No need anymore, it's all about electronic stats. The hiring is in those that can read and interpret the stats."

Fair enough, no disrespect taken. 

Here’s a direct quote from a former scout on the topic: “non baseball people doing baseball things” I guess I should have said “those who refuse to embrace analytics could be replaced by those who do.”

I know a few ‘old school’ scouts for lack of a better term, including my former college coach. I firmly believe that the best/most successful scouts can see things that others don’t. I also believe that particular data points can tell a part of the story. I don’t know what analytics will do to the scouting community but I’ve been told that it will have a negative impact on those who don’t embrace it. Again, this is someone’s opinion (albeit someone with lots of credibility in the baseball world) and obviously, they could be wrong. 

I think you are close to spot on there, old school will have to embrace it to some degree and some of the numbers of scouts may well go down (full disclosure I have done a tremendous amount of work in automation so I fully understand the work force scale back) but players are found all over the world and in all shapes and sizes... numbers don't give heart, scouts always will be important IMO and they may need to use modified methods of how they evaluate...but they still will ultimately be critical to the process.

 

To your point, the one thing that this gentlemen talked about a lot was “makeup.” Ironically, he talked at length about two specific players currently playing in the World Series. 

Data points only provide part of the story and I believe this is why PGStaff said that many teams send their entire scouting departments. There are things that numbers can’t measure so I agree, human intuition and things that can only be seen through human perception will never be eliminated from the process. 

Altuve and Bregman!

Altuve and Correa?

Correa and Altuve. You’re such a homer! LoL 

He talked at length about Correa and how he had a particularly bad showcase once but it was just a small sampling. 

He also said that they were so sure that Correa would drop to them that they weren’t really prepared to select anyone else. That’s how sure they were that they were getting him. He said that when their guy said “they just took Correa” it was dead silence for about five minutes in their draft room.

Teams embracing an analytical approach rather than employing more scouts will be using those budgets for those able to interpret results, though many teams get their statistical data from outside sources.  The whole idea is learning how to interpret those results and IMO, that takes paying someone to do that job.  

No one said that teams will still not employ scouts, who will still be needed to identify talent.

This is the new approach which has now also trickled down to the more wealthier college teams, Clemson being the latest who also just hired a director of player development ( from the Astros organization).  Lucky for those guys. Shoveits4ks post shows how the use of this tool helps the player, thus helps the team to WIN. That's what it's all about. 

This leads it's way to hiring younger staff all around in college and pro baseball, managers, coaches, etc. who embrace the  new approach.

The teams heavy on statistical analysis and interpreting correctly include Boston, Cleveland, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, Yankees , Nationals. Not surprised that these teams were all in the playoffs. People said that if the Dodgers and Astros made the WS, the 2 teams that heavily rely on data as a draft and training tool and rehab tool, it will change how baseball will conduct business. That's why you see teams making managerial and coaching changes asap.

All of this is my opinion of couse, but this will become the new norm. 

Hoping that Kyle from Driveline could weigh in on this.

IF/When Kyle chimes in, he will likely confirm that Trevor Bauer has been using the same technology at his home to perfect his pitches. 

Every MLB club has an analytics dept. Just like players and scouts, some better than others.

Astros didn't have to worry about Correa dropping to them because they had the first pick of the draft that year and selected Correa.  Had nothing to do with analytics, he was the best prospect in my mind.  Twins took Buxton with the second pick and he was the second best prospect, actually the best in most scouts opinion. Correa signed below slot which allowed Astros enough money to draft and sign McCullers.

I'm 100% on board with all the new technology and metrics.  The more information available the better.  But baseball is played by human beings.  We all know that human beings are not perfect or even all that predictable at times.  They don't improve equally and they don't even care equally. For sure some perform better under pressure than others.

PGStaff posted:

Every MLB club has an analytics dept. Just like players and scouts, some better than others.

Astros didn't have to worry about Correa dropping to them because they had the first pick of the draft that year and selected Correa.  Had nothing to do with analytics, he was the best prospect in my mind.  Twins took Buxton with the second pick and he was the second best prospect, actually the best in most scouts opinion. Correa signed below slot which allowed Astros enough money to draft and sign McCullers.

I'm 100% on board with all the new technology and metrics.  The more information available the better.  But baseball is played by human beings.  We all know that human beings are not perfect or even all that predictable at times.  They don't improve equally and they don't even care equally. For sure some perform better under pressure than others.

 

Yes they have an analytical departments. Teams get their info from league partners and other sources like MLB Advanced Media, who does mlbtv, etc. They rely heavily on sources like Baseball Prospectus, TruMedia, Baseball Info Solutions and Inside Edge.  It is impossible for teams to have staffs to do this work. It's cheaper to purchase data for less to hire someone.  Source info CBS Sports.

This essentially eliminates the need for sending scouts to watch opposing teams, it's easier to watch it on video.

However, the challenge is in delivering sabermetrics to players. I guess you have to have a manager who allows those analytical guys to become a part of the clubhouse, and they have to be pretty good at making it easy to understand and presenting to the manager who will use it for  game decisions.

When you have 2 teams like the ones who are playing for the WS, and who do rely heavily on this info, you are now setting a trend for others. 

hshuler posted:

Son only got one game/three at-bats in Jupiter because of 1) football (flew in Saturday morning) and 2) the rain (we didn’t get a consolation game) but had an absolute blast. 

He got a great wisdom impartation from the “Crime Dog” which was the highlight of his weekend.  Really cool because son swings lefty as well.

By the way, the guy looks like he could hit another 493 HR’s. I’m not joking!

Overlooked this Shu- that’s awesome and I’m sure that made the trip worth while. BTW- Josh is looking like he’s got 493 dingers in his future, or sacks, or both?! 🤔

brball posted:

hshuler posted:

Son only got one game/three at-bats in Jupiter because of 1) football (flew in Saturday morning) and 2) the rain (we didn’t get a consolation game) but had an absolute blast. 

He got a great wisdom impartation from the “Crime Dog” which was the highlight of his weekend.  Really cool because son swings lefty as well.

By the way, the guy looks like he could hit another 493 HR’s. I’m not joking!

Overlooked this Shu- that’s awesome and I’m sure that made the trip worth while. BTW- Josh is looking like he’s got 493 dingers in his future, or sacks, or both?! 🤔

Thanks. He’s definitely been blessed with some tremendous opportunities to learn from very knowledgeable baseball folks.