What would you say is the college baseball recruiting timeline for the classes of 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 now that the NCAA has allow players an extra year, etc?
For example: Player should be verbally committed by XX month prior to XXX his starting his XXX year in HS...
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My son is a 2021 and it looks like he is going to be either a D3 or a JUCO player. He has a D3 visit coming up this month. The way it was explained to him by a few different D3’s is that the timeline is usually visits in August or September, a chance for players to get one more look in Fall Ball, and then decisions in late October to mid November. That seems to be the way it is working for D3’s right now...
Things will change drastically though, I bet, if there isn’t a D3 season in 2021.
Ironically, D3’s seem the least “at risk” for the Athletic Departments going under due to Covid issues. They don’t give out athletic scholarships and they help fill up dorms with athletes.
I will let someone else speak on D1’s or D2’s as I am not familiar with those levels, because outside of a few emails when my son was 15 he hasn’t received interest from those levels. Most of his friends/teammates who are going D1 committed last Fall (the Fall of their Junior year). The only kids I know of who are committing D1 in the summer before their Senior year are late blooming pitchers.
I guess what I am driving at here is something like this:
In the past, I have seen it mentioned that most kids commit to the higher end D2 schools by November 1st of their senior year.
Maybe that is wrong? But, if it's right, how has the COVID-19 situation impacted that benchmark? Is it now going to be by 11/1 of their junior year?
@3and2Fastball posted:My son is a 2021 and it looks like he is going to be either a D3 or a JUCO player. He has a D3 visit coming up this month.
Very jealous 3and2Fastball! None of the D3s my son has talked with were able to offer campus visits this fall. This has probably been the single most stressful thing about my son's decision process.
@Francis7 posted:I guess what I am driving at here is something like this:
In the past, I have seen it mentioned that most kids commit to the higher end D2 schools by November 1st of their senior year.
Maybe that is wrong? But, if it's right, how has the COVID-19 situation impacted that benchmark? Is it now going to be by 11/1 of their junior year?
I can't speak to D2s because my son wasn't looking at them, but for the D3s he had offers from, that early decision application deadline has not changed. At the latest, he knew he would need to have made a decision by Nov. 1 (some schools are Nov. 15). I'm not sure how many would have waited that long before going on to the next guy on their board, however, because he found his school and committed. But, the timeline really depends on when the offer was extended and how long the coach is willing to wait.
@Francis7 posted:I guess what I am driving at here is something like this:
In the past, I have seen it mentioned that most kids commit to the higher end D2 schools by November 1st of their senior year.
Maybe that is wrong? But, if it's right, how has the COVID-19 situation impacted that benchmark? Is it now going to be by 11/1 of their junior year?
You can throw prior milestone dates out the window. Past guidelines are pretty meaningless. All you have to do is look at how college rosters are already swelling to realize that most schools have NO NEED for more players (thanks, NCAA ! ). And this will be the case for the next 4 years. The best players will continue to be recruited but once you get past the top couple layers of talent it’s going to be a struggle. There will be fewer offers coming to HS players from D1 & D2 schools. They can afford to be very selective so if a good offer comes your way you best not balk at accepting it. Options are likely to be way more limited in coming years. D3 & NAIA will still take as many as they can get but that has always been the case. If you are in the HS grad class of 2021, 2022, or 2023 it’s time to recalibrate your sights, expand your options, and develop a solid plan. If you don’t get real in a hurry baseball may be over sooner than expected.
@adbono posted:...And this will be the case for the next 4 years....
The fact that all players in 2020 got an "extra" year of eligibility seems to give the schools an amazing amount of flexibility in constructing their rosters for the next few years. They can essentially pick and choose who they would like to "extend" in their program, and don't have to decide until the kids are in their 4th year. Am I reading that right?
@K9 posted:The fact that all players in 2020 got an "extra" year of eligibility seems to give the schools an amazing amount of flexibility in constructing their rosters for the next few years. They can essentially pick and choose who they would like to "extend" in their program, and don't have to decide until the kids are in their 4th year. Am I reading that right?
I think it's even more complicated because last year's juniors don't have to say right away if they want to take the extra year...if I understand it correctly.
@LuckyCat posted:I can't speak to D2s because my son wasn't looking at them, but for the D3s he had offers from, that early decision application deadline has not changed. At the latest, he knew he would need to have made a decision by Nov. 1 (some schools are Nov. 15). I'm not sure how many would have waited that long before going on to the next guy on their board, however, because he found his school and committed. But, the timeline really depends on when the offer was extended and how long the coach is willing to wait.
the majority of D3 will virtually never tell a kid they like even a reasonable amount no at this point. They are more likely to sugar coat him, assuming they don't outright mislead them.
Apply, sign up, send your tuition money, be one of as many kids who shows up for fall...they will thin the heard as needed, kids will be upset, parents will feel misled, coaches won't give a damn and already are recruiting the next batch of 20 for following fall....and so it goes.
The next year or 2 will be worse then normal but it is never good.
I think the points being made about the landscape changing are valid. If you want to actually play College Baseball, you better be working incredibly hard on the field and in the weight room in the year or two prior to getting on campus. And I mean incredibly hard, similar to the amount of time college players actually put in! And that’s for any level, D1, D3 etc
Far too many kids still think the goal is the commitment. The goal is to actually play, not sit in the dugout and watch. In the past, kids would have that eye opening experience in the fall of their freshman year of college and realize that they hadn’t worked hard enough prior to getting there. Often that would mean their chance to get on the field would be delayed a few years, or it would mean that they’d have to transfer to a lesser program. Now it could mean that your career is over.
@K9 posted:The fact that all players in 2020 got an "extra" year of eligibility seems to give the schools an amazing amount of flexibility in constructing their rosters for the next few years. They can essentially pick and choose who they would like to "extend" in their program, and don't have to decide until the kids are in their 4th year. Am I reading that right?
This is correct. Many programs don't have the funds for 5 years players. And most parents don't have the funds either. The player has to prove that he deserves an extra year. Next year the roster returns to 35. My guess though is that most coaches will have this discussion before the senior season. And that things will return to normal quicker than we think. Although it's the coaches job to win, it's also his job to replenish each year. I would certainly make sure that your player isn't walking into a situation of 40, 50 players and full of 5th year seniors. I am sorry but that is absolutely RIDICULOUS!
IMO this time is a great opportunity for players to seek position of grad assistant, baseball operations, volunteer assistant, if interested in coaching.
@3and2Fastball posted:I think the points being made about the landscape changing are valid. If you want to actually play College Baseball, you better be working incredibly hard on the field and in the weight room in the year or two prior to getting on campus. And I mean incredibly hard, similar to the amount of time college players actually put in! And that’s for any level, D1, D3 etc
Far too many kids still think the goal is the commitment. The goal is to actually play, not sit in the dugout and watch. In the past, kids would have that eye opening experience in the fall of their freshman year of college and realize that they hadn’t worked hard enough prior to getting there. Often that would mean their chance to get on the field would be delayed a few years, or it would mean that they’d have to transfer to a lesser program. Now it could mean that your career is over.
One of the biggest shocks for a lot of freshmen is realizing they’re boys and the returning players who have been through the training program are men. My son entered 6’1 175. He thought he was working hard before college. By soph spring/ redshirt freshman season he was 6’2” 195.
@old_school posted:the majority of D3 will virtually never tell a kid they like even a reasonable amount no at this point. They are more likely to sugar coat him, assuming they don't outright mislead them.
Apply, sign up, send your tuition money, be one of as many kids who shows up for fall...they will thin the heard as needed, kids will be upset, parents will feel misled, coaches won't give a damn and already are recruiting the next batch of 20 for following fall....and so it goes.
The next year or 2 will be worse then normal but it is never good.
I can only speak to our experience, but D3 coaches my son was talking with were willing to wait a bit but did want answers and were thinking about whether they might lose the next guy on their boards. But, I don't think most of the schools he was talking to are going to have the kind of rosters you are describing in the fall. The schools he was talking to were looking for between 6 and 9 2021 recruits.
I don't know many people that have rushed into D2 offers if that is what you're asking. I also don't know any D2s that offer prior to the summer entering senior year. A lot of guys who go D2 are mostly guys who are being dragged along by D1s. When July and August heading into senior year come around and the communication doesn't improve they start weighing D2 options. The D2s that offer "early" probably think you could play baseball at a higher level and try to lure you away with love. It's up to you.
I would say if your son is getting a mixture of lower level D1 and D2 looks, he would likely be better off at the D2 from a baseball perspective. You have to weigh the social, academic, location options and decide which he's better off at. Unless you project a massive growth spurt or change in his game over the next 9 months, he is unlikely to change as a prospect.
Also it would probably be better if you just laid out the situation instead of the hypotheticals. Does your son have offers, is he expecting offers, was he given a deadline? It would be much easier if you just said...Here's our situation, here is what I think, what are your thoughts? You can do that without giving up any info on the schools or personal information about you/your kid.
@TPM posted:This is correct. Many programs don't have the funds for 5 years players. And most parents don't have the funds either. The player has to prove that he deserves an extra year. Next year the roster returns to 35. My guess though is that most coaches will have this discussion before the senior season. And that things will return to normal quicker than we think. Although it's the coaches job to win, it's also his job to replenish each year. I would certainly make sure that your player isn't walking into a situation of 40, 50 players and full of 5th year seniors. I am sorry but that is absolutely RIDICULOUS!
IMO this time is a great opportunity for players to seek position of grad assistant, baseball operations, volunteer assistant, if interested in coaching.
I would think this is the most reasonable take regarding what will likely happen. I think coaches will want to rework their rosters quickly to get back to normalcy sooner than we all do think. Its going to make for a lot of tough conversations, if this is in fact correct, but if I am a coach this is what I would do. Its very bad news for 2021's since this didn't happen in time for them but 2022's should be closer to normal.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:I would think this is the most reasonable take regarding what will likely happen. I think coaches will want to rework their rosters quickly to get back to normalcy sooner than we all do think. Its going to make for a lot of tough conversations, if this is in fact correct, but if I am a coach this is what I would do. Its very bad news for 2021's since this didn't happen in time for them but 2022's should be closer to normal.
I don’t think what you say will be true across the board. I think it may be the case at most D3, and some D1 & D2. But IMO the most competitive programs (that are expected to win) will continue to take 5th year proven players if that player will help them win.
@TPM posted:...
IMO this time is a great opportunity for players to seek position of grad assistant, baseball operations, volunteer assistant, if interested in coaching.
Dammit TPM, SHHHHHHHHHHHH! You're not helping! 
For others, TPM knows what I'm talking about... the coaching circles are being heavily impacted from all directions similar to what is happening to the recruits. And the impact will be felt for at least the next 2-3 years as well. Both are historically excess supply vs demand and even more so now.
Adbono, I would be interested to hear in more detail your thoughts on why it might be four years of impact for recruits. I can definitely see two for sure but having a hard time thinking through all the possible impact and variables that far out.
I think we will also start to see more and more D3’s and D2’s bringing in JUCO players, too. Obviously not the HA D3’s, but the rest will. There will be incredible logjams and huge rosters at most JUCO’s in 2021-2022, I am betting.
At all levels, I think, only the top top elite freshman will get playing time. The rest will have to work while they wait. Unless an 18-19 year old is just super legit for their level, they are going to have a tough time taking playing time away from 23 year olds.
Because of that, we’ll be seeing more college freshman who aren’t hardcore Baseball guys dropping out of programs. More than ever, if you don’t absolutely love Baseball, College Baseball is not for you, and especially for the vast majority of players who don’t get athletic money.
@adbono posted:I don’t think what you say will be true across the board. I think it may be the case at most D3, and some D1 & D2. But IMO the most competitive programs (that are expected to win) will continue to take 5th year proven players if that player will help them win.
Point taken. I run a business with lots of teammates and constituents that demand I win every day. I would keep all teammates that could help me win today BUT with an eye on the intermediate to long term. If I were in this situation I would move quickly to put myself in a position to bring in maximum talent which would require me making room. I would already know what all my guys can do except my new 2020's. I think most would do this more quickly than we might think but to your point, there could be 10% of the roster that plays out their full 4 years. Coaches should do the hard work now.....
@3and2Fastball posted:I think we will also start to see more and more D3’s and D2’s bringing in JUCO players, too. Obviously not the HA D3’s, but the rest will. There will be incredible logjams and huge rosters at most JUCO’s in 2021-2022, I am betting.
At all levels, I think, only the top top elite freshman will get playing time. The rest will have to work while they wait. Unless an 18-19 year old is just super legit for their level, they are going to have a tough time taking playing time away from 23 year olds.
Because of that, we’ll be seeing more college freshman who aren’t hardcore Baseball guys dropping out of programs. More than ever, if you don’t absolutely love Baseball, College Baseball is not for you, and especially for the vast majority of players who don’t get athletic money.
There will be others who leave the game because they just aren’t mentally tough enough to deal with the challenge. Through high school they just showed up expecting to start in the middle of the field and bat in the middle of the lineup. For the first time they’re competing just to play.
I know four P5 guys who are now at D2 schools. They went from not playing or redshirted last year to being the stud two-way players at their new schools. If I know of 4 how many are there out there? Take a look at the transfer portal and see how many went from P5 to P5 compared to how many went down a level within D1 to down an entire level. There are a lot of guys who were going to be redshirted anyway last year that have decided it was time to move on. That trickle down effect will greatly affect recruiting and even the timelines for lower levels. Many will wait and see what happens this spring to recruit because if they can get a P5 guy or mid level D1 player that is a steal that they could never have gotten pre Corona.
How does one look at the transfer portal?
@PitchingFan posted:I know four P5 guys who are now at D2 schools. They went from not playing or redshirted last year to being the stud two-way players at their new schools. If I know of 4 how many are there out there? Take a look at the transfer portal and see how many went from P5 to P5 compared to how many went down a level within D1 to down an entire level. There are a lot of guys who were going to be redshirted anyway last year that have decided it was time to move on. That trickle down effect will greatly affect recruiting and even the timelines for lower levels. Many will wait and see what happens this spring to recruit because if they can get a P5 guy or mid level D1 player that is a steal that they could never have gotten pre Corona.
Agree with all of that.
The increased amount of drop downs will really effect those at the lower levels. Especially JUCO’s and D3’s. That has always been true but will happen more than ever.
I could be wrong, but I think JUCO’s are going to be really tough sledding in the next few years for most who aren’t elite D1 type talent. Because a lot of the D1 commits/dropdowns are going to be in the JUCO lineup, and the tweeter kids are going to be on the bench or one of 25 kids who are on the roster but not the travel roster.
@cabbagedad posted:Dammit TPM, SHHHHHHHHHHHH! You're not helping!
For others, TPM knows what I'm talking about... the coaching circles are being heavily impacted from all directions similar to what is happening to the recruits. And the impact will be felt for at least the next 2-3 years as well. Both are historically excess supply vs demand and even more so now.
Adbono, I would be interested to hear in more detail your thoughts on why it might be four years of impact for recruits. I can definitely see two for sure but having a hard time thinking through all the possible impact and variables that far out.
I think that there is going to be a lot of college coaches stepping down in the next few years, not just in baseball. There is always a need for young coaches willing to put in the hard work.
I said what I did because at some point a player has to move on, but if he wants to stay in the game, there are opportunities.
There will continue to be more and more opportunities to coach in travel ball though. That’s a billion dollar industry that isn’t going anywhere. Most of the travel teams this summer did not shut down. Most of the tournaments still happened etc
@3and2Fastball posted:There will continue to be more and more opportunities to coach in travel ball though. That’s a billion dollar industry that isn’t going anywhere. Most of the travel teams this summer did not shut down. Most of the tournaments still happened etc
Travel ball will be interesting. It has growing immensely in the past 10 years. There has not been a recession during that time. We all know the current economic situation, so don’t need to rehash that, but my question is - can families still pay the amount of money that they had been paying to support the Travel ball industry?
Most all the fees had to be paid before “crazy” broke loose this year. It will be interesting to see what happens.
There are a lot of kids playing travel ball living on a false dream as described by PT in another thread.
I’ll share what my 2021 son’s future coach (Jayhawk JUCO) told us on the visit in July. He said 4 year schools will be impacted by this for 4-5 years and JUCOs for 3-4 years. Just one coach’s opinion, but he’s a successful (winningest coach in program history among other things) veteran and a straight shooter.
@Around_The_Horn posted:Travel ball will be interesting. It has growing immensely in the past 10 years. There has not been a recession during that time. We all know the current economic situation, so don’t need to rehash that, but my question is - can families still pay the amount of money that they had been paying to support the Travel ball industry?
Most all the fees had to be paid before “crazy” broke loose this year. It will be interesting to see what happens.
I suspect travel teams will get dinged next year. The scheme most work on is to have the entire summer of the following year paid for by January of the previous year. Clearly MANY families got hit this year with an investment that would kindly be described as flat to negative ROI. Personally I'm very down on the travel experience, found it to be useless for my player and I tell anyone who asks (and some who don't). Luckily things worked out, but that was in spite of his travel experience, certainly not because of it. I can't imagine I'm alone on this front.
I understand the thought process behind thinking travel ball for next summer will take a hit given commitments and first payments will be needed soon, but I don’t see it coming to fruition. In fact, it might see a surge. This year has thrown more wrenches into recruiting plans for 2021s and 2022s (among others) than we could possibly imagine. The number of kids wanting to play college ball hasn’t shrunk, but the seats at the table have.
Travel ball is just one of many tools that a prospective player can have in his recruiting arsenal. For some, it’s their biggest/best tool and for others it’s a small/almost insignificant one and every thing in between. With fewer seats at the table, I’m envisioning uncommitted kids (and their parents’ checkbooks) grabbing every possible tool they can get their hands on until the dust settles. “It’s expensive and of low value? Well, low value still is SOME value. Put it in the cart.”
If anything, Travel Ball will be bigger next year, with more 18U Teams in the summer than ever before.
@Wechson posted:I suspect travel teams will get dinged next year. The scheme most work on is to have the entire summer of the following year paid for by January of the previous year. Clearly MANY families got hit this year with an investment that would kindly be described as flat to negative ROI. Personally I'm very down on the travel experience, found it to be useless for my player and I tell anyone who asks (and some who don't). Luckily things worked out, but that was in spite of his travel experience, certainly not because of it. I can't imagine I'm alone on this front.
Reading what you wrote about travel ball mirrors what we went through. I'm down on the travel ball experience, too. Hindsight is 20/20, and I would love to have all that money from travel teams, hotels, gas, etc back. It would have really helped with his freshman college finances this year.
@Wechson posted:I suspect travel teams will get dinged next year. The scheme most work on is to have the entire summer of the following year paid for by January of the previous year. Clearly MANY families got hit this year with an investment that would kindly be described as flat to negative ROI. Personally I'm very down on the travel experience, found it to be useless for my player and I tell anyone who asks (and some who don't). Luckily things worked out, but that was in spite of his travel experience, certainly not because of it. I can't imagine I'm alone on this front.
The current travel ball system benefits only about 20% of the players. The system is designed to benefit college coaches, event organizers, travel ball orgs, and scouting services. I wrote a paper about it for a coaches convention a couple of years ago. Parents and players are getting taken for a ride.
@adbono posted:The current travel ball system benefits only about 20% of the players. The system is designed to benefit college coaches, event organizers, travel ball orgs, and scouting services. I wrote a paper about it for a coaches convention a couple of years ago. Parents and players are getting taken for a ride.
The summer baseball and recruiting process would work better for non D1 players if they stayed in Legion ball and did a couple of select showcases. Where we lived any good high school player headed to travel and overpaid for the recruiting process. Legion was mostly marginal players.
Even D1 prospects who want to stay regional don’t need major tournament exposure. However, the competition is great for preparing for Top 150 D1.
@RJM posted:The summer baseball and recruiting process would work better for non D1 players if they stayed in Legion ball and did a couple of select showcases. Where we lived any good high school player headed to travel and overpaid for the recruiting process. Legion was mostly marginal players.
Even D1 prospects who want to stay regional don’t need major tournament exposure. However, the competition is great for preparing for Top 150 D1.
Agree with some of what you said. Legion isn’t still an option everywhere. It’s long dead and gone in some areas of the country. But reality is that such a small % of travel ball players will ever play D1 baseball makes it ludicrous that the entire system is designed around reaching that goal. It’s unattainable for 80% of the players. For the 80% that want to play beyond HS but don’t have D1 ability there are better ways to advance themselves than financially subsidizing the 20% that don’t need any help anyway.
@adbono posted:Agree with some of what you said. Legion isn’t still an option everywhere. It’s long dead and gone in some areas of the country. But reality is that such a small % of travel ball players will ever play D1 baseball makes it ludicrous that the entire system is designed around reaching that goal. It’s unattainable for 80% of the players. For the 80% that want to play beyond HS but don’t have D1 ability there are better ways to advance themselves than financially subsidizing the 20% that don’t need any help anyway.
Totally agree w this. My 2025 is clearly in the top 1-2% of players and benefits from travel ball for possible d1 recruiting. My 2023 is more like a top 10-25% and I am tortured by the thought of paying thousands and thousands for unclear benefit. There are a lot of adults making money off children
@Dadbelly2023 posted:Totally agree w this. My 2025 is clearly in the top 1-2% of players and benefits from travel ball for possible d1 recruiting. My 2023 is more like a top 10-25% and I am tortured by the thought of paying thousands and thousands for unclear benefit. There are a lot of adults making money off children
Given the circumstances the need for assistance navigating all of this may increase, but it will likely be offset or hurt by many people's economic circumstances. Let's face it it has been a very fruitful decade for many. Spending a few thousand extra dollars at the potential for helping your kid get into college for baseball may have seemed like a reasonable expense when everything was humming. Not sure that's the case now.
@adbono posted:The current travel ball system benefits only about 20% of the players. The system is designed to benefit college coaches, event organizers, travel ball orgs, and scouting services. I wrote a paper about it for a coaches convention a couple of years ago. Parents and players are getting taken for a ride.
I'd like to read that paper
@adbono it's like MiLB replicating itself (the 80/20 rule)...
