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Below is a Jupiter write-up of two 2019 RHP, who are each ranked #1 in their respective states, attending P5 and most likely draft picks this summer.  I count 9 walks and 2 HBP innings between them.  Player A didn't make it out of the 3rd and Player B left in the 5th.  Velo is great, but as many coaches have told me, if you can't throw strikes at 17, you won't at 21.

Friday afternoon featured an enormous pitching matchup. While it didn’t exactly live up to expectations, it attracted a huge crowd of scouts. PLAYER A was hot out of the gate, sitting 90-94 with life through the zone. He struck out two in the first and worked around a couple walks in the second, but faltered in the third with three walks and a hit batter before exiting. He mixed in a curveball that showed 12/6 to 11/5 shape with depth at 74-75, though it was inconsistent and he didn’t command it well. He also flashed a changeup at 85 with some comeback sink. His fastball was 87-89 in the third. PLAYER B lit up radar guns with a 93-96 fastball in the first, but he allowed two runs on a hit, walk and hit batter. He settled in to strikeout the side in the second inning. He allowed five runs (four earned) in 4.1 innings while walking four and striking out five. His secondary stuff was inconsistent, but he flashed a curveball with hard break and depth at 75-78.

Last edited by CTbballDad
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Velo means upside. In HS it is ok to throw 78 if you hit your spots but in college or pro that doesn't play.

At some point you need to perform though, 98 to the backstop is not getting outs and at higher levels you have guys that do both.

Mlb or top d1 don't need 85 mph finesse  pitchers because they get finesse pitchers throwing 91

I disagree that at 21 you can’t throw strikes if you struggle at 17. I do get the premise though. 

Most colleges require you have secondary stuff to succeed, not just velo, although you are def ahead of the game with higher  velo. 

Command is certainly the prerequisite to command mound time and more and more schools are investing in cameras and technology to improve mechanics and  simplify pitchers’ motions.

I understand both sides but I also know you can't teach location for most pitchers who throw hard with no control.  For most, they have to lose velocity to get control.  But I reckon it is easier to lose velocity to get control than it is to try to gain velocity and keep control. 

We had a son's friend who was drafted second round who struck out 18 and walked 17 in the same state playoff game.  Set records for both.  Almost lost the 1 hit game with 18 K's. 

A college program has sixteen to eighteen pitchers every year. They only need ten to be effective. It allows coaches to gamble on the big throwers they believe they can fix their control.

There are pitchers who gain better control in college. It’s from getting better coaching than in high school or travel. 

I scouted a JC vs Scout team game(s) yesterday... they played 16 innings, got to see about 15 different P's between the two teams throwing to, basically, the same opposing hitters.  So, it's always a fun exercise to see what different pitching styles and skill sets are more/less effective against pretty much a constant.

Yesterday was an exercise in the same old story...  without decent secondary stuff (movement, some deception, some command), velo gets hit hard.  Also, if velo is up in the zone regularly, it gets hit hard.  But on the other hand, without at least a decent base velo, any effectiveness is short-lived and thus, usually a disqualifier for recruitment.  Also, with some version of deception in delivery, a given velo is effectively a few MPH higher than measured.

Once a P has established baseline effective velo, well-located and properly executed off-speed pitches are often the most effective.

 

Last edited by cabbagedad

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

baseballhs posted:

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

Agree with you during recruiting, but once that's done, then I'm a fan of pitching to contact.  If batters can't catch up to your FB, then that means it's a race to 3 strikes before 4 balls.  Your walks and pitch count goes up.    Love that first pitch change up and weak grounder to 2B.

baseballhs posted:

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

Mine is the opposite.  He has touched 92/93 but is not willing to reach back and throw hard just to light up a radar gun.  He only threw 88 this summer and 87 last week.  He says, I don't care about lighting up a gun if it means giving up control and hitting someone or walking someone.  His stats mean more to him than the gun.  I know someone will say well that is ok since he is already committed to P5 SEC school.  But he will not do it to light up an MLB gun, even though dad has strongly encouraged it.  He did have several scouts tell him last week at Jupiter to not get caught up in the radar guns.  His stuff would get him where he wants to be but that is hard to believe.  I reckon we will see next June or in four years when he is eligible again for the draft.  Hard to know which side to believe but I also know that teams are looking for both.  Pitchers with great control and pitchers with great velocity.  It truly takes both.

PitchingFan posted:
baseballhs posted:

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

Mine is the opposite.  He has touched 92/93 but is not willing to reach back and throw hard just to light up a radar gun.  He only threw 88 this summer and 87 last week.  He says, I don't care about lighting up a gun if it means giving up control and hitting someone or walking someone.  His stats mean more to him than the gun.  I know someone will say well that is ok since he is already committed to P5 SEC school.  But he will not do it to light up an MLB gun, even though dad has strongly encouraged it.  He did have several scouts tell him last week at Jupiter to not get caught up in the radar guns.  His stuff would get him where he wants to be but that is hard to believe.  I reckon we will see next June or in four years when he is eligible again for the draft.  Hard to know which side to believe but I also know that teams are looking for both.  Pitchers with great control and pitchers with great velocity.  It truly takes both.

A pitcher doesn’t have to pitch at max velocity. He only has to hit max velocity a few times to prove it’s his upside. 

The same thing goes for fielders. It doesn’t matter if a max velocity throw ends of in the third row seats. It’s how hard the player can throw. The coach/scout figures the max velocity can be blended with good mechanics and create an accurate, hard thrower.  

Last edited by RJM
CTbballDad posted:
baseballhs posted:

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

Agree with you during recruiting, but once that's done, then I'm a fan of pitching to contact.  If batters can't catch up to your FB, then that means it's a race to 3 strikes before 4 balls.  Your walks and pitch count goes up.    Love that first pitch change up and weak grounder to 2B.

Love that first pitch change up too............. unless you leave it up. 

PitchingFan posted:

I understand both sides but I also know you can't teach location for most pitchers who throw hard with no control.  For most, they have to lose velocity to get control.  But I reckon it is easier to lose velocity to get control than it is to try to gain velocity and keep control. 

We had a son's friend who was drafted second round who struck out 18 and walked 17 in the same state playoff game.  Set records for both.  Almost lost the 1 hit game with 18 K's. 

Seems like a lot of pitches in one game...

I'm a believer in a pitcher who knows how pitch, no matter what velo he has. Some guys with big time velo are dumb as rocks, and will never "get it".

I think that BB is going to go through a revolution soon, when some guy like Beane will scoop all the soft tossing, Moyer like P's and sandwich  them  between flamethrowers through their  lineups. Hitting a 67 MPH Curve or 84 MPH tailing fastball isn't easy to adjust to when you are geared up for 95+.

  Different velo's of course, but I know it used to drive my HS'er crazy when he had to face a guy throwing 74MPH after a steady diet of mid/high 80's velo.

57special posted:

I'm a believer in a pitcher who knows how pitch, no matter what velo he has. Some guys with big time velo are dumb as rocks, and will never "get it".

I think that BB is going to go through a revolution soon, when some guy like Beane will scoop all the soft tossing, Moyer like P's and sandwich  them  between flamethrowers through their  lineups. Hitting a 67 MPH Curve or 84 MPH tailing fastball isn't easy to adjust to when you are geared up for 95+.

  Different velo's of course, but I know it used to drive my HS'er crazy when he had to face a guy throwing 74MPH after a steady diet of mid/high 80's velo.

Keep thinking that as long as you want. It’s never gonna happen

rynoattack posted:
PitchingFan posted:

I understand both sides but I also know you can't teach location for most pitchers who throw hard with no control.  For most, they have to lose velocity to get control.  But I reckon it is easier to lose velocity to get control than it is to try to gain velocity and keep control. 

We had a son's friend who was drafted second round who struck out 18 and walked 17 in the same state playoff game.  Set records for both.  Almost lost the 1 hit game with 18 K's. 

Seems like a lot of pitches in one game...

142 pitches if I remember right.  Obviously several years ago.  I know one inning he walked 4 and struck three.  It was a train wreck in slow motion.  The sad part or good part is he is still pitching in the majors.  Not as bad but had two outings this year where he never got out of the second inning due to lack of control and two other outings where he had 10 K's.  I have just never understood how you can be that on or off.  But he was 96 from left side so they gave him a chance and must still be in that mindset because he still makes a nice living doing it. 

Last edited by PitchingFan

I think some people just really struggle with the fact our bodys have a speed limit.  We had a really good strength and fitness guy in our program when my son was 14.  He told us frankly my son did not have the god given flexibility to throw 90.  That in theory he could do it if he just out muscled it and was a workout warrior but he was fighting long odds.  At the time he was a 6'3" 14 topping at 74.  Not bad.  Not good.   What he told us really resonated.   He was at 72 at 13 and only gained two mph after a good year of growth.  Something was holding him back.  At 13 he was A little behind.  At 14 he was losing the race.  I posted something to that effect back then and was hammered for my negative attitude and how "it's too early" etc.  But it wasn't too early at all.  He made the mature decision to make the switch to football.  He went to throwing all junk and not worrying about velo at all.  He led his team in just about every statistical category but strikeouts every year.  Pitched more innings than anyone else.  And at times has been dominant.  Last year at 16 he became a part time player due to five football camps and OTA's.  Were it not for a questionable WP instead of passed ball on a dropped third strike he would have had an ERA for the season of Zero.  Could it work in college?   We ask ourselves that from time to time.  He of course thinks he could get Babe Ruth out.  I don't know.  We will never know.  If he kept a baseball body and worked as hard as he could at it maybe he would be low 80's.  Instead he throws mid 70's and is very effective.  But what would low 80's get?   Yes you can pitch college at some level in the low 80's but you won't be a main cog on any but the worst of teams.  Instead he is now 6'5" 285 and making a lot of D1 football visits.   Thinking he will get offers this spring and early summer.  We will see.  

The point to this whole story for anybody still reading is that it does no good for us to complain or bemoan our misfortunes.  Accept the fact that velocity is king.  If your kid is low to mid 70's and he is in high school...   it's probably over for D1.  And I am being nice.  Truth is even high 70's low 80's it's probably over. Yes we all have the rags to riches stories.  But odds are overwhelming it's time to look at lower level schools or turn to another sport.   I am so glad my son had the maturity to make the decision he did.   He is finishing out his travel career this summer for 17u.  Yes the last game will probably be emotional.  It's been a long ride.  The excitement at 9 when he made the 'elite' travel team in the area.  We did not even know there was such a thing til a friend suggested he tryout.  Then those glory years at 12 & 13 when he was so good and we thought his dream of playing D1 baseball just might happen.  Then the reality at 14 that progress was screeching to a halt and yet he had his best most dominant season ever on the mound changing his pitching style.  The 15u season where he started to transition to footbll and had less time to work on baseball.  And his coaches got mad cause he skipped a few games for football.  Then 16 he becomes a part timer as football is center stage.  And now if he is still uncommitted come this summer he will have the football camp circuit all over again.  And baseball will go out with a part time whimper.  I hope he can commit this spring.  Then he can go just to that schools football camp and play darn near his whole baseball season. Our team is bad.  There was an exodus after last season.  He may even be able to hit again.  That would be nice.  

Yes we are lucky it seems he has another sport which will get him to the D1 dream.  Many don't.  But it's still about accepting and embracing the end.  Last season and this upcoming season are in a way the most fun.  There is no pressure.  The dreams are gone.  Just father and son enjoying one last summer of bonding before he goes off to college and we rarely see him.  Moral of the story.  Just sit back and enjoy your sons success if he is a less than flame throwing pitcher who gets the job done.  Don't stress about the fact he isn't recruitable by the big schools or even the mid schools.  If he wants to play low level there will be a place for him.  If he doesn't then accept the end is near and savor every last second.  Trust me it will give you a real inner peace.  

PitchingFan posted:
baseballhs posted:

My son has struggled with this at times.  He rarely gets hit, he strikes out or he walks.  We talked about it a lot last summer.  I did tell him that even if he didn't have his stuff, not to pull back his velo because a 85mph strike isn't going to do it.  There are tons of guys who can do that and right or wrong, they are recruiting velo.

Mine is the opposite.  He has touched 92/93 but is not willing to reach back and throw hard just to light up a radar gun.  He only threw 88 this summer and 87 last week.  He says, I don't care about lighting up a gun if it means giving up control and hitting someone or walking someone.  His stats mean more to him than the gun.  I know someone will say well that is ok since he is already committed to P5 SEC school.  But he will not do it to light up an MLB gun, even though dad has strongly encouraged it.  He did have several scouts tell him last week at Jupiter to not get caught up in the radar guns.  His stuff would get him where he wants to be but that is hard to believe.  I reckon we will see next June or in four years when he is eligible again for the draft.  Hard to know which side to believe but I also know that teams are looking for both.  Pitchers with great control and pitchers with great velocity.  It truly takes both.

A coach told me and my son..... Velocity will get you to the next level but getting outs will keep you there. 

Nothing brings out the golf carts at Roger Dean like a kid throwing 95 LOL.

As the father of a kid who typically posts 2 Ks per inning (and often 2 BBs as well, after going to full counts on every batter), this is an interesting thread...  (Jr does not have elite velo, but throws fairly hard.)

I agree sometimes it seems players who are effective at lower velos get ignored.  But top-tier D1 programs and (especially) MLB are looking for rare ability--the top .01 or .001 percent.  Not many people can throw 95 mph.  Yes, just about every pitcher in MLB can, but that is the narrow end of a very wide funnel.  A player who has velo *might* learn command; the reverse is much less often true.  Recall that Randy Johnson led the AL in walks for 3 straight years (in year 3 he also had the lead in Ks and balks)--then in year 4 was second for the Cy Young.  Johnson was a unicorn, sure.  But so is every MLB player to a degree. 

Its important to differentiate between being recruited and playing time once on a college team. 

When being recruited, velo matters, of course.  Other attributes matter as well but velo is the first measurable that coaches look at and the most important.  High velo guys will find the recruiting process much easier, as has been said here thousands of times.  However, When playing in college, velo becomes a footnote for the player.  Outs are the only thing that matters.  I know many coaches through my older and middle sons' recruiting journey, and their actions line up with their words:  if you cant get outs, you won't play.    Sure, you'll get chances, but playing time will be next to nothing if you can't get outs.   

I also wanted to address the belief that if a kid doesn't pitch 88 or higher he has no chance to pitch in college.  That is simply not true.  I know kids who are pitching in D1 programs right now who topped out at 85-86 when they were seniors in high school.  I also know kids who topped out at 82-83 as seniors who are pitching in top D2 programs right now, my son being one of them.  This isn't really that uncommon.

I'm just responding today because I've read here over the past several months parents not giving their kids a chance to play in college because of some preconceived notion that they can't due to velocity only.  Again, not true.  If your kid has shown he can shut down good teams, especially the better travel teams, than he can pitch in college at a very good baseball program.  Do some research on various rosters and cross check them with PG or PBR to see what pitchers velos were as seniors, you may be surprised.  This is just what I've learned through the last 5 years being heavily engrained in the recruiting process and with making good contacts with coaches during this time.  Hopefully this helps and good luck.

To swing the conversation to a more personal note.  What velo does a LHP need to be drafted in top 10 rounds?  Or does it also depend on movement and location, ability to get outs?   Do you believe that MLB scouts have a hard velo for LHP and RHP for certain rounds?

The personal side is 2019 son has 89 verified by college and pro scouts but has been 92 on several guns in the spring.  Averages 1.8 K's per inning over past 3 summers and springs.  1.2 walks per 7 innings pitched with .16 era over past 3 years summer and spring.  We were discussing on ride back from Jupiter if there is a gold velo number after several pro scouts talked to us.  Or if it is a combo of velo and pitchability?

Last edited by PitchingFan
Daddycougar posted:

Its important to differentiate between being recruited and playing time once on a college team. 

When being recruited, velo matters, of course.  Other attributes matter as well but velo is the first measurable that coaches look at and the most important.  High velo guys will find the recruiting process much easier, as has been said here thousands of times.  However, When playing in college, velo becomes a footnote for the player.  Outs are the only thing that matters.  I know many coaches through my older and middle sons' recruiting journey, and their actions line up with their words:  if you cant get outs, you won't play.    Sure, you'll get chances, but playing time will be next to nothing if you can't get outs.   

I also wanted to address the belief that if a kid doesn't pitch 88 or higher he has no chance to pitch in college.  That is simply not true.  I know kids who are pitching in D1 programs right now who topped out at 85-86 when they were seniors in high school.  I also know kids who topped out at 82-83 as seniors who are pitching in top D2 programs right now, my son being one of them.  This isn't really that uncommon.

I'm just responding today because I've read here over the past several months parents not giving their kids a chance to play in college because of some preconceived notion that they can't due to velocity only.  Again, not true.  If your kid has shown he can shut down good teams, especially the better travel teams, than he can pitch in college at a very good baseball program.  Do some research on various rosters and cross check them with PG or PBR to see what pitchers velos were as seniors, you may be surprised.  This is just what I've learned through the last 5 years being heavily engrained in the recruiting process and with making good contacts with coaches during this time.  Hopefully this helps and good luck.

Agree with most of this.  But as it relates to the velo of pitchers in D1 & D2 programs, there is variation based on what region of the country you are talking about.  What's true in Wisconsin is not true in California, Texas, Florida & Georgia.

Daddycougar posted:

Its important to differentiate between being recruited and playing time once on a college team. 

When being recruited, velo matters, of course.  Other attributes matter as well but velo is the first measurable that coaches look at and the most important.  High velo guys will find the recruiting process much easier, as has been said here thousands of times.  However, When playing in college, velo becomes a footnote for the player.  Outs are the only thing that matters.  I know many coaches through my older and middle sons' recruiting journey, and their actions line up with their words:  if you cant get outs, you won't play.    Sure, you'll get chances, but playing time will be next to nothing if you can't get outs.   

I also wanted to address the belief that if a kid doesn't pitch 88 or higher he has no chance to pitch in college.  That is simply not true.  I know kids who are pitching in D1 programs right now who topped out at 85-86 when they were seniors in high school.  I also know kids who topped out at 82-83 as seniors who are pitching in top D2 programs right now, my son being one of them.  This isn't really that uncommon.

I'm just responding today because I've read here over the past several months parents not giving their kids a chance to play in college because of some preconceived notion that they can't due to velocity only.  Again, not true.  If your kid has shown he can shut down good teams, especially the better travel teams, than he can pitch in college at a very good baseball program.  Do some research on various rosters and cross check them with PG or PBR to see what pitchers velos were as seniors, you may be surprised.  This is just what I've learned through the last 5 years being heavily engrained in the recruiting process and with making good contacts with coaches during this time.  Hopefully this helps and good luck.

Daddyc thanks for the advice and I would agree.  My son is a LHP topping around 85 - the feedback we have received so far is that his velo is light (but not completely out of the question) for mid major DI programs, very much in the conversation for good DII programs and a shoo in for almost any DIII program, including HA.  As Fenway says, the trick is finding the right fit for academics, baseball and financial regardless of Division.

Velo is at the top of the list and that can be very frustrating to effective pitchers seeking an opportunity to play at the highest levels beyond HS.  But keep the faith as it is not the only factor and there are tons of opportunities for mid 80s pitchers to compete in good college programs around the country.

This thread is starting to turn into the usual debate about specific velo required at various levels.  One camp will list the high velo required and the other will list the countless exceptions on current rosters that will prove otherwise. 

To save several more pages of back-and-forth, it can be simplified.  As Nonamedad and a few others have referenced...

Velocity will get you to the next level but getting outs will keep you there.

There is an abundance of circumstances that result in players actually pitching college game innings with lower velo than the "standards" suggest but it is very difficult for a P to be actively recruited when he has the same velo (or lower) as everyone else in the pool (and it's a very big, crowded pool).  To advise or encourage recruits otherwise is not doing them any favors.  

 

I've read a lot of the threads about velo (and 60-times, and pop-times).  It took me a while to figure out how it works, because websites with info about college baseball recruiting rarely say outright that you will only be recruited for D1 if you have FB 88+, 60-time <6.9, pop time <2.0. 

It might be more useful for everyone if it were expressed in the reverse:  if you DO have a FB 88+, 60-time <6.9, pop time <2.0, you WILL be recruited by D1s as soon as you hit those numbers (unless there are other factors - grades, makeup, etc.- that would disqualify you).  When you hit those numbers, you should definitely showcase, play in top tournaments, etc.  If you don't have those numbers, you might or might not be recruited by D1s in the summer after junior year.

PitchingFan posted:

To swing the conversation to a more personal note.  What velo does a LHP need to be drafted in top 10 rounds?  Or does it also depend on movement and location, ability to get outs?   Do you believe that MLB scouts have a hard velo for LHP and RHP for certain rounds?

The personal side is 2019 son has 89 verified by college and pro scouts but has been 92 on several guns in the spring.  Averages 1.8 K's per inning over past 3 summers and springs.  1.2 walks per 7 innings pitched with .16 era over past 3 years summer and spring.  We were discussing on ride back from Jupiter if there is a gold velo number after several pro scouts talked to us.  Or if it is a combo of velo and pitchability?

Five years ago a 5’10” lefty cruising 87 was one of the top statistical pitchers at a ranked P5. He was 13-1 with a sub 2.00 ERA. He was drafted in the 19th round as a senior.

He successfully moved through each level of the minors one year at a time. When he arrived at AAA the MLB organization decided they didn’t need this level of talent and released him.

Re: D1 velocity 

I used to go to college games and ask as many questions as possible when my son was fourteen, fifteen years old (ten years ago). One time I chatted up a pro scout at an A10 game. I asked him the average velocity in the A10. He said it was mid 80’s. I asked him if he scouted this level of velocity. He said he was there to gun and watch the 90+ closer. 

Good friend top officially recorded fastball is 87.  Has been 89 in independent workouts.  Great change and curve.  Really hard to hit.  Has beaten many of the best travel teams in the Midwest over the years.  He is 5'11".   Zero offers and darn near zero interest.   Life is not fair.  

2020dad posted:

Good friend top officially recorded fastball is 87.  Has been 89 in independent workouts.  Great change and curve.  Really hard to hit.  Has beaten many of the best travel teams in the Midwest over the years.  He is 5'11".   Zero offers and darn near zero interest.   Life is not fair.  

What year?  If he’s a 2020 there’s still time.  Projectability also is a big factor.  If they believe he’s peaked, it may be an issue, but if they believe there’s a few more MPH, then he’s got a chance.

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