Coronavirus Fear Impacts College Baseball

Saw that on d3 boards as well. I do not blame them. Their responsibilty to the health of the players is more important than making that trip. 

I feel the same way, JCG.  I'm extremely uneasy, either way, about my boys' trips to Orlando and Port Charlotte in the next two weeks. The Snowbird Classic in Port Charlotte and the RussMatt event in the Orlando area are in counties that border the counties with the biggest Coronavirus issues in Florida. Don't want the teams to risk getting ill but also don't want to lose the travel opportunity and related costs.

What precautions have been taken in the past to protect from death by influenza? 

Seems pretty over the top and unnecessary to me. Add that to the fact that these are D3 schools which don't tend to travel like schools at other levels might and often to fundraise to even put these trips together. D3 budgets are usually scarce, I'm not sure plane tickets and whatever else are refundable this late in the game. 

If the players had to pay for any part of the trip they should be fully refunded. A lot of financial strain goes into putting things like this together. 

PABaseball posted:

Seems pretty over the top and unnecessary to me. Add that to the fact that these are D3 schools which don't tend to travel like schools at other levels might and often to fundraise to even put these trips together. D3 budgets are usually scarce, I'm not sure plane tickets and whatever else are refundable this late in the game. 

If the players had to pay for any part of the trip they should be fully refunded. A lot of financial strain goes into putting things like this together. 

Hear, Hear!

JCG posted:

Not a huge surprise, but still very disappointing.

Two eastern schools, Pitt Bradford and Ithaca, have canceled their trips to California to play SCIAC teams beginning this weekend. I sincerely hope that's not the beginning of a trend, and I hope  that we'll be able to look back and describe their decision as overly cautious, and not as prescient.

I assume these schools know that the death in CA was in Northern CA? Aren't all SCIAC schools in SoCal?  These schools would actually be further away from outbreaks than they are at home.  I really wish everyone would calm down.  Couldn't get toilet paper at Costco today, so I'm in a bad mood.  

LousyLefty posted:

JCG posted:

Not a huge surprise, but still very disappointing.

Two eastern schools, Pitt Bradford and Ithaca, have canceled their trips to California to play SCIAC teams beginning this weekend. I sincerely hope that's not the beginning of a trend, and I hope  that we'll be able to look back and describe their decision as overly cautious, and not as prescient.

I assume these schools know that the death in CA was in Northern CA? Aren't all SCIAC schools in SoCal?  These schools would actually be further away from outbreaks than they are at home.  I really wish everyone would calm down.  Couldn't get toilet paper at Costco today, so I'm in a bad mood.  

Yeah, doesn't make sense.  Things certainly could get a whole lot worse, but as of now the only place in the US I'd not hesitate to visit is a Seattle nursing home.

uhh, JCG, wanna double check that last sentence, there?

smokeminside posted:

uhh, JCG, wanna double check that last sentence, there?

Oh, sheeze....  All writers need good editors.  

Yeah older son texted me today. They were scheduled to play those 2 teams.  He's very disappointed losing 4 games which may not be made up.  Although I understand the fear of the college's administration and staff.  

RJM makes a good point about The flu. Which is still around in higher numbers to date.

Oh well. Looks like a road trip to Santa Barbara area this weekend to see younger son play

I wonder what will happen to March Madness?

Actually, they are already thinking about playing with no spectators:

https://www.insidehighered.com...eled-due-coronavirus

JCG posted:

smokeminside posted:

uhh, JCG, wanna double check that last sentence, there?

Oh, sheeze....  All writers need good editors.  

Even excellent writers like you!

We just cancelled a big conference we were hosting in NYC next week.  While Coronavirus is really just a super flu anyone who is responsible for clients, employees or teammate health are going to have the make the decision to postpone trips or limit large gatherings.  This could be 2-4 weeks.... It just sucks that it comes right at the start of HS and College baseball.  Such is life.  Side note I have been in Florida all week and  everything down here is business as usual..... Its just too bad that the kids can't come down here to play ball but again better safe then sorry...

Son heads to Austin, TX this wkend, then Philly the following week, then week at RussMatt Tourney between Orlando and Tampa (fortunately most games near Winter Haven and no where near Disney).  All systems go thus far.

Learn the new Wuhan "handshake".   This is going to look weird when teams do this at the end of the series.

https://www.dailydot.com/irl/w...feet-greeting-video/

Sons, old team is heading down to the Snowbird. Each school needs to make their own decision. And the regard many Academics at many schools hold athletics, there may be some pressure there as well. 

smh, people have binged watched wwaayy too much Walking Dead. 

I was scheduled to attend a large annual conference of medical professionals this week in Florida, roughly 50,000 healthcare administrators and physicians from all over the US and some other countries.  Got the word yesterday that it was being cancelled just 4 days before it was to begin.  The decision was reached by a panel of these same doctors scheduled to attend.  I can assure you that it was not a decision reached lightly.  The logistics involved in putting the brakes on an event that size are considerable, not to mention the economic impact to the individuals, companies and host city involved.  

This virus is spreading like wildfire around the globe.  And while it's easy to quibble about the death rate in percentages and talk about how mild it is for healthy people who may only feel bad for a few weeks, the reality is that somewhere between 1 and 100 and 1 in 33 people who contract the virus will die.  They will be someone's grandma, someone's young child, someone's sibling fighting cancer with a compromised immune system.  It's easy to lose perspective when we are disappointed but I am fine with taking steps to slow the spread of this thing while we figure out how to fight it.

As to the flu comparisons, it's not an either/or game.  Yes the flu kills a lot of people.  We are talking about doubling the death rate at minimum when you add this virus' death rate to the flu death rate as they will exist in parallel and impact the same population.

With all due respect to many posters whose opinions are expressed.

This may or may not be "like the flu." But, let me point out some very obvious superficial differences.

The FLU death rate is estimated to be .1%. That mean roughly 70 million Americans contract the flu and 77k die. This is in a world where strains of the flu circulate every year (with some residual immunity), flu vaccinations are developed every year, ameliorative treatments have been developed (e.g., Tamiflu) and its seasonal (meaning it burns itself out each spring).

None of that list is present in a virus which emerged several months ago from animals; so what data is being used to state - often times as naked fact  - that this is similar to the flu?

All actual data I see shows the death rate ranges from .6% [Korea], to 3% [China], to 5% [Italy, US]. Even .6% IS 6 TIMES THE FLU DEATH RATE.

Opinions that the actual death rate is .1% (still a staggering number), rests upon assumptions about prior epidemics: that there is a large group of people who were asymptomatic and simply fought off the virus with no effects. Now, that is a valid assumption based upon past experience - BUT it depends upon finding that asymptomatic pool of people. Neither China nor Korea - the countries most advanced in widespread testing - have found that pool if asymptomatic people. The search still goes on, and experts predict the pool will be found; however, the longer and more widespread testing proceeds without finding the pool, the shakier the assumption.

The Spanish flu (look up the story on why the name) was estimated to have a death rate of 2%. 75 million Americans were estimated to have been infected; in a single year US life expectancy dropped over a decade (because young people were particularly vulnerable).

My point is NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING YET ABOUT WHAT THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL BRING; the virus could burn out (if the infectious rate is lower than thought), a treatment could emerge, etc.

If the death rate is 2%, and the infectious rate is similar to the Spanish flu, everyone on this board will personally know someone who died from the virus. That is staggering.

If it were my kid, I'd hope the university didnt place him in harm's way; during my daughter's freshman year the university was infected with meningitis B; a few died - enough to force the use of an experimental vaccine. I checked with infectious  disease experts - thinking the risk was so low she didnt need to be a Guinea pig. They convinced me she needed the vaccine.

My point is, get educated on everything to do with this virus. We can all take action - which actually involves social distancing, hand washing, avoid face touching, use of anti-micobial wipes on counters, work from home, etc. It will reduce the risk to an individual as well giving time to our health care system to avoid being overwhelmed.

This may turn out to be nothing; it may be the Spanish flu. At this point we dont know.

Here us a website I consult for decent info.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Goosegg posted:

With all due respect to many posters whose opinions are expressed.

This may or may not be "like the flu." But, let me point out some very obvious superficial differences.

The FLU death rate is estimated to be .1%. That mean roughly 70 million Americans contract the flu and 77k die. This is in a world where strains of the flu circulate every year (with some residual immunity), flu vaccinations are developed every year, ameliorative treatments have been developed (e.g., Tamiflu) and its seasonal (meaning it burns itself out each spring).

None of that list is present in a virus which emerged several months ago from animals; so what data is being used to state - often times as naked fact  - that this is similar to the flu?

All actual data I see shows the death rate ranges from .6% [Korea], to 3% [China], to 5% [Italy, US]. Even .6% IS 6 TIMES THE FLU DEATH RATE.

Opinions that the actual death rate is .1% (still a staggering number), rests upon assumptions about prior epidemics: that there is a large group of people who were asymptomatic and simply fought off the virus with no effects. Now, that is a valid assumption based upon past experience - BUT it depends upon finding that asymptomatic pool of people. Neither China nor Korea - the countries most advanced in widespread testing - have found that pool if asymptomatic people. The search still goes on, and experts predict the pool will be found; however, the longer and more widespread testing proceeds without finding the pool, the shakier the assumption.

The Spanish flu (look up the story on why the name) was estimated to have a death rate of 2%. 75 million Americans were estimated to have been infected; in a single year US life expectancy dropped over a decade (because young people were particularly vulnerable).

My point is NO ONE KNOWS ANYTHING YET ABOUT WHAT THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL BRING; the virus could burn out (if the infectious rate is lower than thought), a treatment could emerge, etc.

If the death rate is 2%, and the infectious rate is similar to the Spanish flu, everyone on this board will personally know someone who died from the virus. That is staggering.

If it were my kid, I'd hope the university didnt place him in harm's way; during my daughter's freshman year the university was infected with meningitis B; a few died - enough to force the use of an experimental vaccine. I checked with infectious  disease experts - thinking the risk was so low she didnt need to be a Guinea pig. They convinced me she needed the vaccine.

My point is, get educated on everything to do with this virus. We can all take action - which actually involves social distancing, hand washing, avoid face touching, use of anti-micobial wipes on counters, work from home, etc. It will reduce the risk to an individual as well giving time to our health care system to avoid being overwhelmed.

This may turn out to be nothing; it may be the Spanish flu. At this point we dont know.

Here us a website I consult for decent info.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

I actually agree with you, but the flu death rate is not .1%, it's .001% (last year, 40 million had the flu, 40,000 died). Coronavirus is 3200 dead out of 100,000 with the virus, 3.2%. So coronavirus is 3200 times deadlier.

stranded - 

10% of 40m = 4m

1% = 400k

.1% = 40k

.1% = .001

You have a decimal place error or a labeling error .001%).  Still much more deadly but are the Chinese reporting accurately.  There are also not enough kits to test everyone.  I would guess Cornonavirus is going under reported. Before anyone jumps on my comments I personally canceled a conference with 1,000 attendees. I. get it the risks and I believe it’s more deadly   

I wouldn't worry about decimal points, but rather the fact that our country was totally blindsided and falls in the bottom half of countries of being unprepared.

One of my husband's very close friends husband works in the Chen Medical Center (Tampa) where the patient that died (elderly),  showed symptoms weeks ago. 

No one had a clue.

Look up H1N1 (swine flu 2009). response too.  If you don’t recall it will also horrify you.  My sister got swine flu!

61m infected.  12.5k deaths in US

I believe UCLA now has 2 or 3 reported cases. 

My son was also scheduled to play those east coast teams who cancelled.  They're looking for local teams to play scrimmages/non conference games. 

SoCal OG posted:

I believe UCLA now has 2 or 3 reported cases. 

My son was also scheduled to play those east coast teams who cancelled.  They're looking for local teams to play scrimmages/non conference games. 

I think it will be less of an impact on the hosting team. There are plenty of other schools to play in the area. Not all of them will be NCAA, but there are NAIA schools. The east coast schools to make up those games will have to fit them into their short spring season. 

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

stranded - 

10% of 40m = 4m

1% = 400k

.1% = 40k

.1% = .001

You have a decimal place error or a labeling error .001%).  Still much more deadly but are the Chinese reporting accurately.  There are also not enough kits to test everyone.  I would guess Cornonavirus is going under reported. Before anyone jumps on my comments I personally canceled a conference with 1,000 attendees. I. get it the risks and I believe it’s more deadly   

 

 

Somewhat hopeful take here: https://www.washingtonpost.com...fa866bb81_story.html

I'm sure this isn't going to make any difference, but I'll try anyway.

I understand that all these numbers are somewhat public knowledge, but honestly they are erroneous by nature. Do you really think everyone who has flu-like symptoms are being tested, or even go to the doctor? If you take a small sub-set of chronically ill individuals (the ones that end up getting tested) and use them in a morality rate, then you will have a higher number of deaths. Then you have to add in a reasonable false positive rate (happens more than you think or even reported in a timely fashion). Also the meningococcal comment is comparing apples to oranges (bacterial brain infection vs viral resp infection). Two totally different illness that present differently and have their own unique complications.

Now to the real reason for concern. Coronavirus is an avian strain that may have a higher virulency than the regular flu. Same thing happened with swine flu a couple years ago, but the last I checked pigs can't fly. Then people talk about the Spanish flu and how it "spread like wild fire". What you have to realize is that it hit at the perfect time (on a side note it didn't originate in Spain). WW1 was in swing and millions were traveling. Then throw in lack of hygiene and poor sanitation (early 1900's) with an opportunist disease and BANG you have right conditions for a pathogen to "spread like wild fire". Heard an interesting debate once at a conference a few years back that implied average life expectancy had a part to play in the morality rate for the Spanish flu. As to how much, your guess is as good as mine, but they made a decent point. But if you still want to compare this to another Spanish flu pandemic this isn't the time to worry about high morality rates. If you do some research into this you'll find out that the 2nd and 3rd wave (fall 1918/winter 1919) was much worse than the 1st wave (spring 1918).        

I could bore you to death with peer reviewed medical journals, but that will only cause most people to rather die from the plague then sit and read that stuff. Trust me, I've spent many of long hours doing just that. The major point to really drive home to keep a pathogen from spreading, and this goes for just about any communicable disease, is to do the simple things. Wash your hands, practice good hygiene, if your sick stay home, don't lick public handrails, don't go to China and buy a chicken, ect...... There is no need to lock yourself inside a bubble. If people were only aware of what they were exposed to a daily bases this wouldn't be such a hot topic right know.  

O’sFan, I wasn’t aware that coronavirus had an impact on morals. I thought the mortality rate was the issue! Geez, we are in big trouble!

Dam spell check or lack of editor, lol

If I lived in a city or attended a university with a large Chinese population I might be a little more cautious. I’m thinking more about my day a few days ago from this thread than when I went into the city. 

I took the train (contained area) into South Station (a lot of people and across the street from Chinatown). I took the T (city train system) to MGH. I went into MGH (hospital with a lot of people) for a doctor’s appointment and annual scan. That evening I went to the Celtics game (a contained area with a lot of people). Before the game I met a friend at the MGH food court for dinner. They have good food choices. 

The only conscious decisions I made were to not get anything from the concession stand at The Garden and not hold the railings on the stairs in train stations and The Garden. It had become habit after my dissection and four strokes seven years ago. I’m fully recovered and haven’t needed to hold railings for years. It just became habit. I’m agile enough to ski. 

In the hospital I only saw one person with a mask. This is normal during flu season. I saw two people with masks at a T stop (both Asian, didn’t look closely enough to notice if they were Chinese).

On the T one person was about to sit down until he noticed there were several Japanese people seated in the area. He probably couldn’t tell one Asian from another. If he was that worried he shouldn’t have got on the T. 

Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Look up H1N1 (swine flu 2009). response too.  If you don’t recall it will also horrify you.  My sister got swine flu!

 

61m infected.  12.5k deaths in US

I  remember the swine flu. My 2022 caught it. Got the results back right as I was going to the Yankees/Angels ALCS game. I saw the the Yankees clinch that night.

Who knows, another pandemic, maybe the Yanks win the world series again....

My jaded NYer take is that over the next year or so 40%-60% of the population will contract this. Then there will be a vaccine for it, and it'll be a yearly thing like the flu. It'll be the new norm.

nycdad posted:

My jaded NYer take is that over the next year or so 40%-60% of the population with contract this. Then there will be a vaccine for it, and it'll be a yearly thing like the flu. It'll be the new norm.

 

As long as the evil empire doesn't win the series every year   after all, they will probably have the east won a week after opening day, lol

Bowdoin, Amherst, and Wesleyan baseball teams have cancelled spring break trips to Florida (B and A) and Cal/AZ (W)

Meanwhile, Swarthmore is on the plane to Tampa as I write this, and Swat is hosting NCAA d3 basketball regional tonight, even though at least one of the ill folks is from the same county as the school.

We are in Port Charlotte right now, team slated to head to California next weekend. I agree that most likely for these young healthy people I'm not too worried. I'm concerned about the next weekend, when my 80-year-old father will want to have dinner with his grandson and we may have to think whether that's a good idea.

All those percentages are people and for the family who loses someone to the illness, one death is too many.

Regardless of all other issues, it's astounding to me how fast this is spreading. It's like playing a super scary game of telephone.

I am amazed at the total over reaction of the coronovirus by many(especially media).. complete over reaction.  And it just snowballs down hill from there...  Cancel this , cancel that,  Don't go on trips anywhere, dont fly, dont go on a cruise, cancel baseball games, sport games,don't go near asians..don't go to italy but  go to costco and buy all the TP you can get..sell all your stock or buy the panic dip and refi your house once a week as rates plummet. 

Focus is everything. Bad News sells. good news doesn't..   There are 3287 daily car related deaths globally every day. 11 teens killed in the US by texting while driving every day.  2.8 million death annually from obesity.  647k die in the US from Heart disease .   

I can go on and on.

But this virus thing... it is the end of the world..LOL     I would go to costco and eat a coronovirus sandwhich at the food court if it was on the menu. That is how worried I am . 

But  if you do catch it?  On a good note.. I have very good confirmation that here in SD a small local company has the vaccine and it will be out much much much sooner than everyone is saying

Until then ..

via GIPHY

I’d be more panicked about taking a rushed out vaccine. No thanks.

"There are 3287 daily car related deaths globally every day. 11 teens killed in the US by texting while driving every day.  2.8 million death annually from obesity.  647k die in the US from Heart disease ."

Car deaths aren't contagious. Neither is texting while driving or obesity or heart disease.  In fact, you're gaining comfort from the fact that these are all so precisely measured, thereby allowing data driven comparisons to made. But, the virus you're comparing that list too lacks that data and precise measurements.

Americans do love to focus on the minute-by-minute fear - and because that is the business model of cable news  - it is it that media's interest to focus on the crisis de jour. And, again, it's the lack of good data which creates its own vortex.  A good question to ponder is: why, 10 weeks after learning of a potential threat, do we still have no workable data?

Its interesting that the Italian and South Korean death rates are so divergent  - both countries are doing massive testing to find that elusive pool of people who had the virus and fought it off - and neither,  so far, can find that pool.

If you're finding comfort in the US numbers: you can't find it if you're not looking for it.

So, is it an overreaction by media and public? On potential pandemics, is it better to over prepare or under prepare? One can look at Korea which really hesitated before stopping travel to China and is paying the price.  Now travel stoppages isn't the end-all; it buys time to decide how to deal with an approaching known, but not quantified, threat.

What is done in that time to prepare is the key; protective gear for health providers, consistent messaging on the steps taken to protect yourself (e.g., social distancing) and why to take those steps, addressing the economic impacts on employees who dont have sick leave (and, therefore, are more likely to be economically forced to work), how to handle kids whose school is canceled but dont have day care while parents work, what to tell undocumented people who will not seek medical attention out of fear of ICE (my health plan is great, but the virus may infect someone without a plan), (Im not advocating any M4A or anything; im just saying these are issues which need to be communicated clearly to the public), for the employees laid off (think currently airline, but many more sectors will follow) how do they pay their rent/bills? For companies, the same (those grounded planes still need to be paid for).   I have seen no messaging on these specific issues, but those issues are very much in play, plus many many more. The more consistent, science based messages, the less informational vacuum, and the more logical people cam act.

And,  telling people (a la Musk) that they are dumb, panicked, fearful - how does screaming that at them without facts, plans, or contingencies serve to calm them. (I know telling my children to calm down never worked.)

I guess it will depend if someone we know contracts it.

For today - right  now - all that can be said is the novel virus is speading, testing is insufficient to provide useful data, and the media loves fear. A crappy combo. (For you youngsters, I remember post-9/11 government officials suggesting to purchase plastic and duct tape to protect your home; quite obviously an overreaction - in hindsight [as were the cold war bomb shelters]).

Oh, and whatever emerges today actually happened 14 days ago - and no-one knows where we stand closer to actual time. Uncertainty creates a knowledge vacuum which is easlily filled with fear, confusion, and panic.

The good news is simple measures apparently suffice for now - social distancing, hand washing, no face touching. At least it doesnt spead like measles!

Goosegg posted:

 

Oh, and whatever emerges today actually happened 14 days ago - and no-one knows where we stand closer to actual time. Uncertainty creates a knowledge vacuum which is easlily filled with fear, confusion, and panic.

 

 

incubation period data is also not accurate yet.  Originally it was said 14 days.  WHO now says 1-14 days with most common around 5 days.  If that's accurate, WHO knows (like how I did that), that is a good thing. 

Goose: I think we need a list of some kind to shed some light.  I can work up some numbers.... j/k

Goose #2:  I would have sworn you were a lawyer, now thinking in the medical field but if I had to guess I would say self-employed lawyer - am I close?