Does the draft really get the best players?

Do I think that the best players were drafted, not necessarily. There are lots of other factors that go into drafting a player, as Big said, it's a **** shoot and sometimes there is no rhyme or reason.

FrankF, I do believe, posted this a while ago, good info. A must read for everyone.

http://www.probaseballtryouts.com/scouting.htm

We sometimes look at a player and think he is a wonderful prospect, but the professionals may not see it that way, or vice versa.

CADad,
Describe "best"

I think you bring up a very good point but I think you know the answer by your comment.

quote:

You can say all you want about talent and projectability but I've got to wonder when the evidence is this overwhelming.

. In my opinion scouts normally tend to have tunnel vision and see past (or through) stats, W-L records, and such and don’t get overwhelmed with the “evidence” you provide. BUT...Then on the other side a player is “projected” by BA to be a high pick and he slides off the board because he has a bad season or his stats drop????? Projecting and drafting might be fun to talk about but we all know we will never understand the complete process. You mention signability ...a topic in itself! While I'm sure signability is an obstacle and prevents some players from being drafted, I think signability sometimes becomes a convenient scapegoat for the disillusioned parent and player.
Having said all that garbage, you can sit beside one scout get his opinion about a player, then turn around and ask the scout behind you and he will give you a different opinion...go figure. As we all know, scouting and drafting is not an exact science.
Fungo

Does the draft really get the best players....no, but they try awfully hard to and manage to get alot.

As one scout told me..."it is my job to send someone up that I think could make it...that's my job. I get to keep my job when I do." The criteria is as different as each scout's personality.

The draft gets the best players every year. Over the past 40 years, the draft eligible players who were not drafted and then made the big leagues are few and far between.
The problem that I have with the draft is 1. The DAF rule and 2. They should shorten the draft to about 25 rounds.

MLb scouts miss on players all the time, try drafting for talent not signability. Several projected high draft picks fell or did not get drafted at all because of concerns of signability and others with much lesser talent were drafted much higher than they should have because they would sign cheaply.

how many players were drafted because they were a cousin or son of a mlb player or scout this year?

Dibble, start naming the players from the USA who are in the big leagues who were not drafted. See if you can come up with more than a handful. Name me the players that were missed.....by that I mean players that are major leaguers.Until they become major league players, they have not been missed.

DRIVEL

Were you ever drafted?

If so what year and by what team?

bbscout a number of players were not drafted not because they lacked talent, because they were unsignable, saying they were gonna attend college or were too good of student.

How many players signed to go to Stanford, Duke or Ivy league colleges get drafted, very few if they are way down the line, because they almost always go to college.

Kris Benson was bypassed in the draft out of HS, because he told people he was heading to Clemson, went 1st overal his junior year.
Benson could have been drafted in the 10 rd by the red sox, but he told them dont bother i want to attend college first.

Drivel

Please answer my question

From where I sit, there is truth to both sides.

When I covered A ball, I saw plenty of guys who hit .198 and moved up while guys who hit .298 got released. I saw free agents who performed better on games than draftees lose ground and then lose their spot. Why? Because the guy hitting .198 was learning to overcome one fatal flaw and the guy hitting .298 was playing to his potential.

It doesn't seem fair and. sometimes, it doesn't seem right. But if 5 guys from a New York-Penn League team make it to the major leagues, that was an incredibly successful team, even though it went 20-56. Meanwhile, 1 guy from the league championship team makes it.

Over-simplification? Perhaps. But closer to reality than most can possibly imagine.

I think we all can agree the draft is a terribly subjective process.It's all about age, size and learning curve, not necessarily about results.

In the end, both camps are right. Not many players are missed, because part is self-fulfilling prophecy and part the odds to begin with.

The only inevitable truth is that the truly athletic, talented AND hard-working player makes it. After that, anything goes.

Tr I got a call right before this years draft saying so so wants to draft me. ( yes this really happen) Yes TR he was kidding

and I told him I had hired Scott Boras and we want 7 million major league contract plus the field renamed after me and a private jet to fly me to every game. They said they would get back to me on that one.

quote:

Originally posted by Dibble:
bbscout a number of players were not drafted not because they lacked talent, because they were unsignable, saying they were gonna attend college or were too good of student.

How many players signed to go to Stanford, Duke or Ivy league colleges get drafted, very few if they are way down the line, because they almost always go to college.

Kris Benson was bypassed in the draft out of HS, because he told people he was heading to Clemson, went 1st overal his junior year.
Benson could have been drafted in the 10 rd by the red sox, but he told them dont bother i want to attend college first.

So, you go to Stanford or Clemson and then you get drafted.....what is the difference? The players that end up in the big leagues are players that got drafted.....except for a handful. Not drafting some snot nosed kid because he wants a million dollars is not missing him. He goes to college and then he will get what he can get. The point is that all the big leaguers from the USA that are in the big leagues, with the exception of a handful, ALL GOT DRAFTED.

bbscout,
I am sure you never tell any HS players that only 10 % of the minor leaguers ever play one day in the MLB. or 50 % of HS 1st rounders never reach the majors. Players drafted out of college earn more money than hs draft picks.

Remember Matt Harrington Offered 5.3 million, Matt White 10.2 million or Josh Hamilton 3.95 million. All supposely cant miss or best prospects ever

No one has a gun to the MLB scout head and says you have to pay this amount or else.

MLB would to a much better job scouting if they cut 1 million of their inflated mlb payroll and hire additional 15 scouts. I know of plenty of scouts that have 5 -10 states to cover plus they have them work pro coverage too

DRIVEL

Obviously you never got drafted

Did you play college ball? we all know you played somewhere in Europe but did you play in college and if so where

quote:

Originally posted by Dibble:
bbscout,
I am sure you never tell any HS players that only 10 % of the minor leaguers ever play one day in the MLB. or 50 % of HS 1st rounders never reach the majors. Players drafted out of college earn more money than hs draft picks.

Remember Matt Harrington Offered 5.3 million, Matt White 10.2 million or Josh Hamilton 3.95 million. All supposely cant miss or best prospects ever

No one has a gun to the MLB scout head and says you have to pay this amount or else.

MLB would to a much better job scouting if they cut 1 million of their inflated mlb payroll and hire additional 15 scouts. I know of plenty of scouts that have 5 -10 states to cover plus they have them work pro coverage too

Andy, Stay on the subject......the point is that the guys in the big leagues were drafted........period. Name the guys who were missed.

As far as scouting goes, don't argue about something that you know absolutely nothing about.

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
Dibble, start naming the players from the USA who are in the big leagues who were not drafted. See if you can come up with more than a handful. Name me the players that were missed.....by that I mean players that are major leaguers.Until they become major league players, they have not been missed.

I'm more on your side than not scout, but your logic doesn't hold.

If I'm not drafted and not given any opportunity I'll probably become an accountant or teacher, or lawyer or whatever I went to school for. Therefore, I'll never be a big leaguer.

Still doesn't prove I wouldn't have made it if given a chance.

Matters not what the career you need the "chance" but the "chance" is given based on your talentand "assumed ability" regardless of what sport career etc/.

You need to have enough talent /ability to pique the interest of a scout/head hunter/boss etc.

Life aint easy--Life aint fair--but that is the way it is--like it or but you can get what you work hard for

Do they try to get the best players? Yes. Do they miss on some players that should be drafted over others? Yes. The bottom line is that there is no way that they can make sure that the best possible players in every instance are drafted. There will always be kids that deserve to be drafted not drafted. And there will always be kids drafted that are not as good as kids that go undrafted. That is a fact.

quote:

Originally posted by Teacherman:

quote:

Originally posted by bbscout:
Dibble, start naming the players from the USA who are in the big leagues who were not drafted. See if you can come up with more than a handful. Name me the players that were missed.....by that I mean players that are major leaguers.Until they become major league players, they have not been missed.

I'm more on your side than not scout, but your logic doesn't hold.

If I'm not drafted and not given any opportunity I'll probably become an accountant or teacher, or lawyer or whatever I went to school for. Therefore, I'll never be a big leaguer.

Still doesn't prove I wouldn't have made it if given a chance.

If you think you can play, there are many independent teams that you can try out for. If you can't make one of them, you can't play and will need to get a real job.

quote:

Originally posted by Coach May:
Do they try to get the best players? Yes. Do they miss on some players that should be drafted over others? Yes. The bottom line is that there is no way that they can make sure that the best possible players in every instance are drafted. There will always be kids that deserve to be drafted not drafted. And there will always be kids drafted that are not as good as kids that go undrafted. That is a fact.

Coach, The guys in the big leagues with the exception of a handful were all drafted.

I can not dispute that and I am not trying to say otherwise. My point is , there are always going to be guys not drafted each year that are better than some of the guys that are drafted. To say that out of the 50 rounds of the draft that they get the best players in every pick and no one that is more deserving that someone that is drafted is ludicrous. Do they try to get the best players , of course. Do they miss on some guys every year , yes. Will they miss on some guys next year, yes. Of course they try to get the best players and the vast majority of them are.

Wow this has been an interesting thread to follow.

Sure, the teams try their best to pick the best players through the draft. Why wouldn't they???? They WANT the best possible players they can get.

All that said, I cannot imagine they are PERFECT. This is a subjective process to begin with,

The man who would be the next pick if the draft went one man further will move on to another career path. No one will ever know whether he could have been as successful, or more so than the last man drafted. It is also a mute point.

No one is perfect. No system is perfect. But that doesn't make it a bad system.

quote:

posted by fungo
You mention signability ...a topic in itself! While I'm sure signability is an obstacle and prevents some players from being drafted, I think signability sometimes becomes a convenient scapegoat for the disillusioned parent and player.

Amen to that statement.

To BB Scout and others;

Since 1983 with our American Teams [37% in the Major Leagues] and the Area Code games [6% in the ML], I have evaluated over 8,000 high school players.

When I mentioned the word "evaluated", I refer to the many pro scouts who have recommended players for our Goodwill Series events and were involved with the coaching of the players.

The pro scout is "like" an FBI agent, he collect information as to "body language",
"make up" of the player and the players parents,tools and potential for improvement in physical structure and mental capacity.

It is difficult in a one day tryout or one day "showcase" to scout "make up" and the bat. BB Scout and a few other scouts have the ability to be "super" scouts. Their eyes see what others do not.

During our two weeks with our American Team in Australia and Japan, players are tested by playing the National or State every day and traveling to different cities [like pro baseball]. This is the "ultimate test" of skill and ability to adjust - physically and mentally. The pro scouts who coach our teams know who are the future pro players.In 2 weeks the bat and the player's "make up" can be evaluated

The development of the Major Leagues farm system is changing and will change.

Each team has 6 minor league teams is too many, too costly and counter-productive.
When the Colleges go to wood bats, the ML teams will reduce the minor league teams and increase the scouts. The "Indy" leagues have proven to be successful and several teams have added scouts to scout the strong leagues.

"Does the draft really get the best players"?
It is a question of "quantity"and four years later "quality". Is the player ready at 18 years old, is he mature and will he sign, because the odds are against him to make the Major Leagues, the same as a new employee of IBM to be the President of the Company.

"Baseball is a example of life".

With the necessary "TOOLS" and a very strong work habits; "go for it", do not look back as Satch Paige said "someone is gaining on you"

Thanks for listening.

Bob

I know, because I called one scout, that my SS didn't get drafted because he told a group of scouts that he was going to honor his commitment to the University of Iowa and would not sign. We had several conversations on what the "right thing to do" was. I don't know about the rest. I do know about this one circumstance.

I know of one local players who stupidly ( told MLb scouts I want $750,000 or I am going to college, he does not get drafted. 3 weeks later throws 94 mph at PG at east cobb. A MLB team tries to sign him for $150,000 that day, he turns them down and went to college.

Point signability is rital to who gets drafted.

Plus I know of several HS players against any logic signed out of HS and got released in less than 2 years for very little money. They would have been much better prepared for pro ball if they attended college first and matured.


Plus another thing, how much money the team has invested in you makes a big difference in how long they stick with you and who plays right away.

Good example a local players got drafted in 9th rd got $75,000 and batted .100 ( Not a misprint)
in the gulf coast league a lower round players would have been release at the end of the year. But the team would have give him another year, have to justify his bonus. The player quit on his own and now playing football in college.

Dibble, 2 for 51 is not .100. He went back to Snellville and then to college for football. He pocketed the money. He made the right decision for him. He didn't have the make-up. The scout screwed up.

I do realize that scouts are projecting and basing things on tools. I also realize that when two players with similar tools go up against similar competition and the one who is drafted is not successful in terms of getting batters out while the other is then something other than talent was involved in the decision. In this particular case it was probably signability and the fact that the better pitcher came from a school that doesn't sell it's players that hard, and didn't pitch varsity the previous year and the weaker one came from a school with a history of getting kids drafted and a coach that works to get the players noticed by scouts. I can understand why it would work the way it did, but I also think that means that a lot of late round picks are missed. It is kind of like picking kids for an all-star team. The first 8 or 9 are easy. The next 3 could come from any of 10 through 15. I've got to believe that the later rounds of the draft are much the same and I think that bbscout may agree with me since he believes the draft should stop at 25 rounds, although Piazza might not agree with that. I've got to believe that the difference between #1000 and #2000 is pretty hard to define.

I also realize there are things most of us don't see that play into it. For example, I was surprised when USC's shortstop wasn't drafted in the late rounds. Then I noticed that he hadn't done well in a wood bat league over the summer.