High school pitchers

It didnt take long for the original question (How fast is average in HS varsity) to morph into "how fast does my son or his buddies throw." About par.

Fact: Average top out speed for a high school varsity pitcher is about 78, maybe a bit less. I've seen plenty of good ones who throw 70. Bet that 90% of HSs in the U.S. never had one 90 mph pitcher...ever.

quote:

'Round these parts, 78 is well below average for the guys who actually get to pitch on a varsity level, and I would expect to see a 78 mph fastball tatooed pretty regularly.

Yeah, those 78s run into trouble often. But that's life for the AVERAGE pitcher. The question wasn't about future MLB first round choices.

mic

where do you get that statistic --about 78 mph?

quote:

Fact: Average top out speed for a high school varsity pitcher is about 78, maybe a bit less. I've seen plenty of good ones who throw 70. Bet that 90% of HSs in the U.S. never had one 90 mph pitcher...ever.

Micd,

Don't want to belabor the point, but what makes it a “fact”? Your estimate of 90% who never had a 90 mph guy might be true. While it's possible that a pitcher could be good throwing 70, I just hardly ever see that. I respect your opinion of 78 mph, but it’s impossible to call it a “fact”!

In the town we live in Cedar Rapids, Iowa… There are 8 high schools. We are very familiar with every varsity pitcher. Every school has at least two low 80s guys. Most have a mid 80s or a bit higher guy. One has a high 80s and a three mid 80s. Very few varsity pitchers in this town are as low as topping out at 78 mph. This is far from a high school baseball hotbed. I’ve always kind of considered Cedar Rapids or Iowa an average type place. I must admit though, that all 8 are big high schools, and that might be the reason for more pitchers who throw in the 80s.

We have over 45,000 player files in our database. And there’s no way we would feel comfortable stating any number as the average. Just not enough data!

It would be the same thing guessing the average for 60 yard times of high school varsity players. I will “guess” 7.5-7.6!, but have no idea!

We have several high school coaches on board here. Perhaps some of them know what their varsity pitchers top out at. Of course, even that would give us one example out of what? 20,000 high schools in the country.

quote:

Originally posted by TRhit:
PG

Unless one gets out and sees every game of every team one will never know what the averages are--there is no way you can go, no offense guys, by HS coaches word because most never put a gun on their pitchers and estimate what they throw and then, when you see them they at least 5 MPH slower.

I have learned to take only the word of people I know well when it comes to a pitchers mph.

Agree. I've been watching HS baseball for 10 years. EVERYTIME I've heard about a hard thrower ...his press exceeds performance when it comes to speed. Includes a local kid now....it's all over the place that he throws 94. I'm sure he has....but the days I,m there looking over the scouts shoulder it always seems to be 88-89. So when talking about averages it may be useful to agree we are talking about cruising speed. Not some top end a guy hit once/twice when he was pumped for a special event.

I will concede that my experience is with an area that is all AAA teams. I suppose if you're a AA or A school with fewer kids to draw from, you would see lower speeds.

I am a high school varsity coach (small school... but very "average" I think when you're talking USA) and I think 78 is a good answer. Sure the big schools all have a 'one' that's mid 80's but you get into their bullpen and it's 69-79... If we are talking average... not showcase kids, I think 78 is about right. I always tell parents, '80 will turn your head' because they won't see it all that often.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:

Now if you wish to talk about the high end events… the average would be mid 80s or better. In Jupiter last fall 214 high school pitchers topped out at 88 mph or better in one tournament (average more than three per team). About 100 were 90 or better. If the hurricane had not taken 13 teams that total would have been much higher. In fact it was much higher the previous year when around 150 (if memory serves me) were 90 mph or better. That’s the high level! And no the average was not 80-81. For every 90 there wasn’t a 70.

80-81 is my opinion (maybe a bit higher some places, lower in others), your opinion is 75. I could very well be wrong, but neither one of us could possibly know. No one can answer the question accurately, the information just doesn’t exist. Why is it that you know and others have no idea?

Anyway, if on a 4 man staff a high school has one mid 80s pitcher, it would mean the other three, top at 70mph. For every pitcher who throws 80 mph someone would need to top at 70 to average 75.

I have no way of knowing for sure, but how many high schools have very many varsity pitchers who throw less than 70 mph or an entire staff that can’t throw over 75 mph? I do know to average 75 it means most have to throw less than that.

Part of the issue is also the difference between where they "top off" at and where do they pitch at for most of the game.

Don't know about average for the Country can only speak to local schools. Also I think at the local level it depends what year they are in. In most cases if you have a younger pitching staff the velocity will be down a bit. My Sons school has 1 that Tops over 90 probably 88-90 avg. 1 that is probaly tops mid 80s now (based on visual this year) last year was 80-81 and a third probably touching 80. Behind that probably mid 70's. I feel safe that most most schools in our area have at least 1 pitcher in low 80's.

PG...in regards to Jupiter IMO not only would you have more guys due to some teams that dropped out due to the tournament a number of kids who where there I believe could have been 1 or 2 mph faster if the tournament had not been delayed 3 weeks when many of the players seasons had been shut down for a number of weeks already. Not that you had any control over that!

No disrespect intended sir, towards you or any other. Actually quite the opposite, a tremendous amount of respect coming from here toward you guys.

And agree that nobody's "Mr. Baseball" here even though some of us try extremely hard to sell our beliefs and observations.

And you are right about your observation of my comment on draftlists because no draftlists I've ever known have 80-81MPH pitchers that I am aware of...no knuckleballers of late down this way or anywhere as far as I know.

All I'm saying is "many" HS pitchers I come across out there throw much slower and like you, I really don't know exact average, probably nobody does, but apologize just the same, sir.

Sincerely,
Shepster

BBScout Doug M.

Glad to see you are back and signed on here at current time. peace

quote:

where do you get that statistic --about 78 mph?

That's my experience from gunning or seeing hundreds of pitchers, plus seeing the tabulated results from showcases around the country that cover thousands more. Showcases tend to include elite kids especially those who can wow scouts with jazzy top out speeds and lighting fast 60s.

I knew a 260 pounder slugger who never attended a showcase even tho he could smack HRs all day. He'd be humiliated by his 10 second 60 time.

I'd guess LOCAL showcase topout speeds are 2-3 mph higher than average. National Elite showcases are faster still. When the question relates to average speed, you must include the last pitcher on the bench on the worst team in the conference. And that kids isn't spending $500 to go to a showcase in Florida!. Also his Dad isn't hanging around HSBBW looking for D-1 opportunities for his kid.

How do I know national average speed by clocking a thousand pitchers? Same way AC Nielson uses a sampling of 1,500 TV logs to determine what 200 million TV viewers watch. A tiny, well structured sample, can provide very accurate information about a huge universe.

Micd,

Thanks for the explanation. Let me ask a question.

My theory is the average velocity would change depending on location. I have no statistics to back this up, but I do have an example. A few years ago we spent two weeks watching high school baseball in the Houston, TX area. Saw more than a dozen different teams. I’m fairly sure we never saw a pitcher under 80 mph. In fact, one team Cy Falls had two pitchers throwing over 90 consistently. We saw a few others touching 90 and many upper 80s types. Maybe I don’t remember correctly, but I’m pretty sure low 80s was about the lowest we saw on that trip. I’d guess the average of what we saw in two weeks was 83-85 mph. Lots of 84-86 types!

Maybe HSBBW members who live in that area can confirm or deny the above.

Now I know Houston is a hotbed of high school baseball talent and is far above the norm, but there are other areas like that.

My thought is unlike television viewers, my experience has been all parts of the country are not equal in producing high velocity pitchers. In other words the average in Wyoming would not be the average in Texas.

You might very well be right, but do you think there’s anything to the above?

In my state, there are 1300 High Schools that are members of the Missouri State High School Activities Association. (admittedly not all play baseball). I'm therefore guessing there are about 30,000 HSs in the country...

How many pitchers can cruise at 90 mph? 100? 200?

That's one such fastballer for every 150-300 high schools nationwide.

To average say... 75

Every 90 would take someone topping out at 60. How many of them 60 mph guys are there. For everyone over 90 it would take someone throwing in the 50s. Don't think we can use the number of 90 mph guys as any kind of barometer.

I will venture a guess that there are more throwing 90 or better than there are varsity pitchers throwing in the 50s.

Now that I think about it... What difference does it make what the real average is? FWIW, I think I heard (not sure) there are around 20,000 high schools that play baseball in the country.

quote:

A few years ago we spent two weeks watching high school baseball in the Houston, TX area. Saw more than a dozen different teams. I’m fairly sure we never saw a pitcher under 80 mph.

Those Houston HS were surely mostly large and elite baseball schools. Plenty of Latinos who love baseball. You don't waste time watching really bad small teams play each other.

What you see watching a week of Houston baseball isn't typical of what you'd see watching Single-A schools in Montana or Maine.

You also have to figure hundreds of intercity HSs around the country where baseball barely hangs on. Some public HSs teams in the core of St. Louis are more like clubs...they play 6-12 games if they can round up enough kids on game day. (St Louis city has lots of Bosnians, and few Latinos)

In an above post troy99 suggested we agree to shape the scope of the discussion to average cruising speed. Good suggestion since, after all, we're talking about the "average" high school fastball.

I took 6 master-level courses in surveys/polling (for my MBA, not by choice) and though I've forgotten most of it these many years later I remember one cool trick (shortcut) in determining appropriate sample size: Just take the square root of the "population". If micsdsguy says there are 30,000 HSs out there, and we figure 6 pitchers per team, that's 180,000 pitchers. The square root of 180,000 is 424.

Just sample the 424 (pick them randomly but give more weight to populated areas) and you'll be close. Sorry, I don't have the gas.

Anyway, PG, I'll run the National Showcase numbers asap. Check back for my results.

The mix I see on a typical varsity HS staff is something like:

1 kid at 84
1 82
2 about 78
4 between 70 and 76

My Point: any pitcher throwing 80 and up
should be darn proud of himself. It's not such a common skill

micd,

One last thing and I'm done (I think) but do look forward to Bum's further research.

On that typical high school team how would the innings be distibuted? How many high school teams have 8 pitchers who get significant innings?

In the example you give, I would guess the higher velocity guys would throw the vast majority of innings. Most of those innings sucked up by the top three pitchers on most high school teams.

If you used the top 4 in your example, what is their average fastball.

I just realized that we might be talking about different things while attempting to guess the ave. HS velocity.

I'm not necessarily averaging out every pitcher, but concentrating on those a hitter is most likely to actually see in a game.

I think in a previous post you mentioned counting the last guy on the bench on the smallest high school. That went right by me.

Was only counting those who actually pitch almost all the innings. That's usually 4 at the max! In micds example the average would be around 76 mph using his interpretation (all 8 pitchers) and 80.5 mph by my interpretation (pitchers who pitch nearly all the innings)

I think that is where I got confused, but still have no idea what the true average is.

micdsguy,

A bit off-topic, but actually, Montana has great baseball. There are more cows than people, I know, but per capita their ballplayers are really good. Legion ball is fantastic in Western Montana.

And if you've never been there, you owe it to yourself.. go see Glacier National Park before global warming takes its course.

PG..

Hypothetically speaking, a good sample could be taken by randomly visiting all 424 locations. Pick the 424 randomly, too, but weight the higher baseball-population areas more heavily.

When you show up (randomly) the better pitchers are more likely to be pitching, right? This is only fair since they pitch more innings. Thus, its all fair.

Practically speaking, peruse PG's stats. It's all there. The state showcase players are closest to "typical". The national numbers I'll post soon.

*************HERE ARE THE RESULTS****************

I ran these numbers into the wee hours of the morning, so I hope you all appreciate them. I ran four (4) national showcases PLUS I took a look at the numbers of PG's Top 1000.. more on that below:
These are all 2005:

WORLD SHOWCASE:
RHP: 86.82 LHP 86.25

NATIONAL SHOWCASE
RHP 89.43 LHP 90.28

PG AFLAC SHOWCASE
RHP 88.67 LHP 87.20

NATIONAL UNDERCLASS SHOWCASE
RHP: 81.25 LHP 79.98

TOP 1000 OF 2005------------------------------------
AVERAGE OF THESE PITCHERS' SHOWCASES THIS YEAR: 86
AVERAGE OF THEIR SHOWCASES 1 YEAR BEFORE: 86.11
AVERAGE OF THEIR SHOWCASES 2 YEARS BEFORE 82.55

So the elite pitchers improved on average 3.56 MPH between their Sophomore and Junior years.

Good reading.

you didn't just take the hardest throwing pitcher right?

cause you would have to average them out.

Bum,

Thanks for doing all that work. Average fastballs are around what I would have guessed.

pitching101,

These are the average peak velocity of 100s of pitchers that "Bum" has compiled. In fact, he even went to 1,000 pitchers in the final numbers.

The information is available to anyone who would like to do the math. Even without doing the math, one can get the idea by looking at the results. For example here is a link to ther workout results for position players and pitching velocities during the actual games.

Remember this was the National, so the [players are many of the very best prospects in the nation.

Also, remember that many of these pitchers we've recorded even higher gun readings at other events (For example Cory Rasmus is listed in this link as topping out at 91 at the National, but he was uo to 97 mph in the PG WWBA Championship in Jupiter.

Also keep in mind that most pitchers average fastball is usually a couple miles lower than their top speed. Very seldom, if ever, do we see a pitcher throw only one pitch 5 mph harder than any other pitch. In fact, when a scout sees one reading 5 mph higher than any other pitch, he will usually disregard it.

I've read many times where people say a pitcher throws 85 mph and then pops one at 92 and the 92 is listed. That just doesn't happen, it's nearly impossible!

Anyway, Here is the link, you can scroll down to see everything including 60 yard times. (60 was run on absolute perfect running conditions, which explains the fast laser readings. It did include many of the fastest players in high school baseball. - PG National Player Results

I posted this about 2 months ago but here's the results of three Missouri showcases (PDF format) Lots of stats on players that are generally a notch or two below PG quality. Still I'm guessing these are kids tend to have better than average "curb appeal", as a real estate agent might say

http://www.mhsbca.net/05showcaseevalsweb_complete.pdf

http://schoolweb.missouri.edu/stoutland/elementary/2004...es%20Aug_Updated.pdf

http://rollanet.net/~mhsbca/2003_showcase_evaluations.htm

These three showcases took place in central Missouri (Jefferson City, Fulton, Warrensburg) pretty far from St Louis and Kansas City. Heavily weighted to small schools in small towns.

Still, most players had to travel to get there and there was an entry fee. Therefore, the group is still better than average by local standards, I'm sure.

There are many divisions in high school baseball. I think the reads in the showcases probably support that average fast ball velocities in high school are in the 70s. The freaks of nature that can rev it up tend to show up at the showcases. In Texas, like other states there are about as many A as AAAAA schools. Those kids generally don't show up. I'm also willing to bet all the peak velocities on the list show an average velocity of 3-4 mph less. I gunned a Texas tournament recently where I got few 80 mph+ reads. Of course, most schools were not AAAAA, but I guess that's my point. No way the average is 80 across the country.

baseballpapa,

You guys are probably right about the average, I just know we have more data. I'd bet the farm (I don't own) on it. Granted many of those gun readings include the highest level pitchers.

There are many instances where pitchers can not maintain their velocity for more than an inning or two. Then there are a few who will throw the last pitch of a game at their top velocity or near it.

Sure you know this but scouts frame out a pitchers velocity. They will record a range, ie. 84-86 and a top of 87. No one averages out every single pitch that I know of and comes up with a number like 84.8. If the 84-86 turns into 81-83 in the 3rd inning, that is recorded, also, but no average for every pitch is determined. Not by us anyway!

Our people are instructed to record a pitchers average in a frame ie. 84-86, followed by his top reading if above 86, followed by the number of times the top speed was reached. On paper it might look like this… 84-87 top 88 2X

We have recorded more gun readings than anyone in baseball. Nothing to brag about, but true because we see so many players. Hardly ever do we see a top velocity 3 or 4 mph higher than the high end of what we block him out. Usually it is 1 mph higher, once in a great while 2 mph.

I hear what you’re saying, 86-89 top 90 2X could be looked at as top velocity is 4 mph over 86, or 3 mph over 87 or 2 mph over 88. I tend to look at as 1 mph over the high end of his frame. In Jupiter last fall, Rasmus topped out at 97 2X, he pitched at 93-96. He had a lot more 96s than he had 93s or 94s. I have no idea what all his pitches averaged out. I doubt if any scout who was there could tell you his exact average per pitch. The information recorded was enough.

I’ve finally figured out the differences in this discussion has more to do with how we look at averages rather than the average itself. If that makes any sense?

Shepster, your apology is accepted of course. Probably what got me the most was the mention that we are not working in the trenches. As you would say "gotta find em". Well we don't have tryouts so we gotta find em!

Nearly every high school game could be considered the trenches and we’re trying to cover the entire country. Also, got under my skin when you mentioned the high level events being those having 80-81 mph average. Glad "Bum" did the math on a few of those events. I apologize for being so touchy.

Just to clarify on the PG top 1000..

That was the top 1000 players for 2005 according to PG. I looked at everyone of the top players and then compiled the speeds of just the LHP pitchers (I did this a few months ago because my own son is a LHP). Actually, there were only 124 LHP pitchers in that 1000.

To reiterate, RHP's are not included in my analysis of the top 1000.

By the way, I even broke down the average speed of those as follows:

LHP Pitchers in top 100: Avg. 88.00
LHP Pitchers in 101-500: Avg. 86.33
LHP Pitchers in 501-1000: Avg. 84.50

What's really fascinating to me is to check the progress of some of these kids by comparing their gun readings from year-to-year.
I do this by using a spreadsheet, and all seniors are "0", Juniors are "-1", Sophomores are "-2" and so on. Class year and date of event are immaterial using this system.

It's interesting to follow a pitcher's speed during a long game. Many peak well into the game, around 3rd or 4th inning, and can maintain speed into the 6th inning or beyond with a dropoff of only one or two mph.

I've seen a few pitchers who were only good for an inning or two of gas. But that's not the rule from my experience. Any comments?

wow! reading this i am strating to feel inferior, i am a sophomore topping out at 79 and cruising at 74.

by what i have read i have concluded that the elite pitchers, (like the ones pg watches ) throw mid 80's and the average joe's ( who micdsguy watches) are around 80.

What's Up Fellas?

PG Jerry, thank you sir, I would run through a brick wall for you, just let me know when and where.

Ryan Zimmerman is "raking" down here in grapefruit league.

Just thought everybody here at HSBBWeb would like to know that.

Shep

quote:

and the average joe's ( who micdsguy watches) are around 80.

Re-read my posts. I think the average varsity Joe tops out about 78. He's also about 18 months older than you. You're a sophomore and most varsity pitchers are juniors and seniors. (seniors probably throw more innings than juniors)

At the risk of creating further controversy on this topic I will refrain from sharing the average readings of the tassle of big league pitchers today at game. Sat directly behind "several" stalkers and could not believe my eyes.

I was shocked...

Shep

quote:

At the risk of creating further controversy on this topic I will refrain from sharing the average readings of the tassle of big league pitchers today at game. Sat directly behind "several" stalkers and could not believe my eyes.

I was shocked...

Com'on, we all want to be shocked too. What did those Stalkers reveal???

Naww ain't worth it. Just let me say this, much lower than some of the HS pitchers I've had the fortune of seeing lately.

Shep

Shep,

That is normal for early spring training. Once sat and watched Clemens, Gooden, and a few other hard throwers throw 85-87 in an early spring training game.

Often it's the vets that take it extra easy early in the spring. Despite the pitch counts, the WBC is going to force some pitchers to crank it up a bit earlier than normal.

Was told the average velocity of the fastball in the major leagues was 88 about 4 to 5 years ago and is now 90. Also heard a lot of high school pitchers throw considerably slower in the pros.

I have a couple of questions for you gurus. Are the stadium reads real and what kind of equipment is used? Are the kids going pro really throwing slower or is it just the hype was not met with the actual performance? Or is it they are teaching different grips with run instead of straight fastballs and this is causing lower reads?

Papa,

No guru here! But here’s my opinion.

Some pitchers throw with less, some with more velocity by the time they reach the top.

The stadium readings are more accurate in some places than other when compared to the Stalker. I believe most use a Jugs system, but it is far from the little hair dryer units people carry around at games.

Hype does not get someone to the Big Leagues. They don’t pay first rounders millions of dollars based on hype. Yes you are correct, in most cases where velocity is slower it’s because the pitcher has learned how to get hitters out. This would include one, or more, of many different reasons including better movement, more deceptiveness, better pacing for starting pitchers, better command. Then there are the Bobby Jenks types who throw harder than ever now. Often these guys who throw harder now than in the past are relief pitchers.

PaPa and PG,

Don't mean to interrupt sirs but I have a couple of gifts posted in hitting thread under Spring Training Pics in Hitting thread. Must click picture of Coach Little to get full size photo as well as click photo of NYMet RHH in order to see tilt in posture Bluedog.

If you click comments and /or next it will allow you to see 'em.

Shep

Shep

Will have to agree with Midlo as far as varsity around here (central VA - east side, AAA schools). My son made varsity last year as a sophmore in CF. He pitched about 3-4 innings early in the season and between the ground balls that were hits, the few errors, and a mistake or two = being rocked compared to our other pitchers. Ace pitched low 90's (94 at one game), #2 lefty 86-89, #3,4 & 5 clocked 85-88. My son has been clocked 75-78. All the other county schools (3 others) had someone clocked at ninety and one of those had 2. Through other years I would say the average around here is mid 80's.
Tim Robertson

pg were you at jupiter for jr olympic trials this year, If ya were do you know who won the tournament. I wondered if you remembered any of those stalker readings because those guys arnt number 1 starters on varsity here. varsity number 1 starters are alot faster.

Personally, I wasn't there last year, but we had several scout the event. We actually provide USA Baseball the guns.

I think Dynamic Elite (FL) played Florida Magic in the championship game. Team Orlando or Orlando Scorpions were third.

The JOs are for 16&U teams so I would guess there are several players in the tournament who have yet to start for varsity.

That said, there were some of the very best 15 and 16 year olds in the nation there. Many who not only start, but star for their high school team.

For us we don't pay much attention to who wins the most games. We are only interested in who are the top players. The Columbia Angels (TX) were loaded! So were some other teams like the Richmond Braves and Orlando Scorpions.

I doubt if every #1 starting high school pitcher throw much harder than Jon Gast, Tim Melville, Daniel Marrs, Anthony Ferrara, Andrew Paulene, and others who were there nearing 90 mph on our Stalkers. And yes, there were many 70-75 type pitchers as well.

The guys above will be the #1 starter at most any high school in America that doesn't have a high draft pick pitcher.