How often do you run across lower level college pitchers around 75-77mph is this becoming more common

PG if you are still following this and you and your IT guys don't hate us yet....   a long time ago we discussed it would be neat to breakdown max velo by height (and how many pitchers at each height).  Possible?  Pretty please...

This can be found on the Advanced Search on the PG site...

How about a chart with Dad velocity on the x axis and PG reported height on the y axis?

There is a huge difference in the levels of D1 baseball. Just like there is at the D2 level. There are schools at the D1 level that will not look at a kid unless he is upper 80's low 90's. Period. There are schools that know they are not going to get these kids and of course they look for the guys they can get. Sometimes it's the guys that do throw hard but lack command and are a work in progress. Or the guys that don't throw as hard but are projectable. And some D1's are so uncompetitive mid to low 80's is common. There are 20 plus D1 programs in my state. From the top tier programs like UNC to the latter mentioned programs like NCCU. NCCU is D1 and could not compete with the D3 programs in our state. So yes mid to low 80's can definitely under the right circumstances get you a D1 opportunity. As long as you don't mind what opportunity you get.

 

Coach May sums it up well. My son's #3 nationally ranked D3 had 6 pitchers throwing in the 90's last year. They went up and played OU in the fall and I would say that most of the OU pitchers were 91-95 and sat above 90, and the Trinity pitchers were 86-93, with two sitting above 90, and 3 of the other 4 touching 90. The OU players thought TU would have finished in the middle of the pack in the Big 12 based on what they saw. 

2020Dad,

 

I think we are capable of producing all kinds of neat things.  Problem is some of this is easy and others more difficult and time consuming, so I'm told.  Believe it or not, we keep those IT department people swamped with projects and ideas they can barely keep up with. Still all good ideas.

 

I think CoachMay and BOF bring up something everyone should consider.  I know that I tend to think high level when talking about DIs.  But I will say this, and many know it, the highest level of any division, DI, DII, DIII, NAIA, Juco, etc., is a completely different game than the lower levels in all those divisions.  Everything from the coaching, to the talent on the field can be so different. 

 

There really is some overlap of the divisions. One small college NAIA team that I used to coach was much more talented than most of the DI's in our part of the country. We had two pitchers that pitched in the Major Leagues, a catcher, shortstop, 2nd baseman, first baseman and a center fielder that all played professional baseball.  The center fielder made it to AAA.  

 

BTW, NAIA often gets overlooked on this site and other sites.  NAIA has both no scholarship and athletic scholarship schools.  There are some sweet offers available for talented players at many NAIA schools. In many cases, the best offer a player can get is at an NAIA college.  It can blow away a lot of DI offers.  

 

Also, between institutional grants and other available money, there are some great situations at every level including the non scholarship schools.  Once again, these can beat the DI offers in some cases.  I can't even tell you how many small college players I've seen over the years that could easily play DI baseball. There's a just a lot of real good players out there.

 

...which is exactly why a talented kid who is determined to play baseball "at the next level" but who is not an absolutely can't miss D1 or future MLB  prospect, should really keep his options open and not be solely focused on the "holy grail" of  D1 baseball.  

 

I would think that even if you think you might possibly develop into someone who might be able to keep  playing after college, though D1 is clearly the greatly preferred route to that destination  -- especially if you can land at a top D1 -- other paths are open.  Not all D1's are created equal.  Not all D1's surpass all D3's.  My cousin's son, for example, was a recruited walk-on at a small, academically strong, but non-competitive, at least in baseball, Midwestern D1  that has had fewer players drafted than the West Coast D3 to which my son goes.   (The baseball thing hasn't worked out for the kid, but he does love the school, I hear). 

 

So even if you have some hopes of playing beyond college, there are many paths.  Keep your options open, don't get tunnel vision. 

raw data and come to entirely different conclusions. Thanks so much for posting the data.

Actually, I had misread her post at first as questioning why there wouldn't be more in that group rather than less. I would have expected a much bigger jump than 150% growth in that velocity group drop. The numbers indicate that basically 41% of kids that can throw 88+ can reach 90. I would have expected a much larger number of kids who can touch 88, but not 90. Just shows you how people can look at the numbers and se

I can remember years ago when we actually got tired of seeing 89 so often and 90 so rarely. For some reason that one MPH was harder to find than it is these days.

 

The numbers include underclassmen. So some of those that are 85-89 now, will be throwing 90 or better before they get out of HS. Some of the youngest that are throwing 80-83 now, will also be throwing 90 or better. And many that are below 80 will be above 80 in the near future.

Love it, BOF. Now, to make it more relevant to recruiting, there needs to be separate curves by class. A chart of 2018's is going to look quite different than one for 2016's. For now, a 2018 sitting in the middle of this chart is in a much, much different position than a similarly situated 2016.

This is the post that got this conversation started.  

 

I think the data that we have been provided pretty much  debunk the idea that you will FREQUENTLY  run across a lower level college pitcher throwing around 75-77 mph or that this is becoming "more common."    You'd have to reach really, really far down as a college recruiter to pick out a guy throwing 75-77 mph and make him a part of your team.

 

I mean there are  there are thousands of high school kids who throw harder than that. So what  would make you recruit such a player -- even if we are talking D3, say?   Surely not his velocity as such.  He'd have to have amazing command, wicked movement,  outstanding secondary pitchers to even get a whiff at that velocity.  Now some do, that's true.  So I'm not saying it won't happen.  But "frequently" is a pretty strong word. 

 

The data also makes me highly skeptical of claims like this:  

 

And there are plenty of mid 80's guys at the D1 level.  Lots.  And once you get to D3 upper 70's is common.

 

Or like this:  

 

Where I am 80% of the high schoolers fall into the same "bucket"....75-81 mph.  The college guys I have seen still have 80% falling into the same bucket....79-83 mph.  

This is RHP and LHP and just sort of going by the local small college pitchers I have seen around where I live. 

Even at the local D1, a solid program, for every guy sitting 89 there is one sitting 84.  

 

 

No doubt there are some guys throwing mid 80's, maybe even a few throwing lower 80's, at the D1 level -- probably mostly at marginally competitive programs.   But  since D1 draws from the top 2% of players -- and not from the 80% bucket in which most HS pitchers fall -- that's surely gotta be the exception rather than the rule and by a pretty wide margin.  Bottom line, though there may be local exceptions here and there,  I pretty seriously doubt that at most D1's for every guy sitting 89 there is another guy sitting 84.   That guy sitting 84, if he exists, had better be very special in other ways.  Otherwise, he probably is just sitting.

 

Again, think about if from the recruiter's perspective.  What would drive a D1 recruiter  to reach down past the several thousand guys throwing in the 90's and upper 80's all the way down in to the 10's of thousands of guys throwing in the mid to lower 80's?    It's  bound to be pretty darned hard to stand out from the pretty vast crowd of kids who can throw at that velocity.  At any rate, if you're going to get recruited at that velocity, it's surely not going to be the velocity as such that gets you recruited.

 

Again, remember 2% of players go on to play D1 baseball.    

Gotta keep in mind that 'outliers' exist on any bell curve (per definition). If lower velocities exist at D1 level, I would bet it has more to do with the AD's ability to fund a 90+ recruit. Or, grades. Or, I would also suspect that frequently seeing low to mid 80s 'on a radar gun' might also have something to do with the ability to distinguish a fastball velo vs a curve ball velo. God knows my eyes usually move to slow to do so! I see the 84 mph on a gun and think, shoot, I could've pitched that game. Heehee!

 

Btw, as a parent of an LHP, I'd love to see those PG's stats vis a vis LHPs! 

Oh brother...  thought I was pretty much out of this one.  But since I was quoted I must say I stand by my comments.  Too many people want to have.their cake and eat it too.  If you disparage D3 ball they want to remind you how many great D3 teams there are and how they can beat many lower level D1 teams...  but then if you dare suggest.that some D1 teams are not very strong and have kids throwing mid 80's you are told no way D1 is just too good for that???  Keep in.mind mid 80's is at minimum 84-86.  So 86 is mid 80's.   I guarantee you there are plenty D1 guys throwing that.  And there are not 'thousands' of high 80's guys available to D1.  I will not reiterate my entire list of why some high 80's or even 90's guys DO NOT opt for D1 baseball.  But all these kids throwing this hard don't necessarily wind up D1.  And again the subject of 'recruiting' mid 80's guys comes up.  Nobody ever suggested or even insinuated these guys are somehow heavily recruited.  They are the guys you settle fir when you couldn't get all your recruits.  And the lower level D1's have to do a lot of settling.  And yes.there are a good number of D3 kids cruising high 70's.   Again lets not point out the 10 or 20 top level D3's in the nation.  Let's talk your average run of the mill local D3.

FWIW... On one hand we are talking about high school seniors and underclassmen. On the other hand we are talking about velocity at various college levels.

 

Most high school pitchers that go pitch at a college or even go professional, gain velocity after HS.  Now I don't have any numbers for this, but I would expect most college pitchers are at least a couple MPHs above what they threw in HS.

 

The other thing often overlooked... There is peak velocity which simply tells us what the pitcher is capable of and there is his average fastball that we will see most often.

 

Also, the other things count, as important as velocity is, we all know how important the other things are.  Velocity could be described as the "raw" ability in a pitcher. By itself velocity doesn't make for a "polished" pitcher.

 

All that said and you are a recruiter looking at two fairly polished pitchers with a 85-87 fastball. They both pitch in that range, but one has peak velocity of 88 and the other has peak velocity of 90-91. Sure there is a lot more involved, but based on that alone, it's fairly easy to assume the guy with the higher peak velocity has shown the most "fastball" ability, thus a higher ceiling. Nothing is ever certain, but sometimes decisions need to be made long before things become certain.

 

Every so often we see an outstanding pitcher topping out at around 80.  Watching them mix pitches, and speeds, use deception and show great command of all his pitches, is a real treat.  It's fun because we sometimes are the only ones involved in scouting that get to see that kid.  So often, scouts and recruiters move on after seeing an 80mph fastball. We on the other hand get to watch the whole performance.  

 

I'm betting that every one of the nations greatest amateur teams, any age, has been beaten by one of these low velocity, finesse pitchers.  Often they leave shaking their head wondering what happened. What happened is they ran across a very good pitcher.

 

Truth is there should always be a place for a good pitcher, no matter what his velocity is. It just isn't likely to be the higher levels even if he has the ability to get the higher level hitters out.

2020dad,

So your two main points are that throwing mid 80's can get you into D1 and anyone can play college ball if they want to, correct?  May I ask why you feel it is important to make these points?

 

Here is the reason I ask... you admit that the mid 80's guy is most likely to be an un-recruited guy at a low level D1 (12th guy on 250th D1 is your example).  You admit that this is a guy who will get no attention and has to sell himself and somehow try to prove he can contribute even though the coach sees relatively minimal talent.  Well, that means most of those guys walk on and/or get no $$.  Then, most of those guys either get cut in the fall or play for a team that is so bad, it is nothing close to the perception these players had when they targeted playing D1 baseball.  So, either way, they are not at all happy with where they landed. Why did they decide to pursue the D1 path?  Maybe it was the long time coach who they trusted and relied upon for advice insisting that, as a rule of thumb, 83-85 will get you into D1.  Bad advice, IMO.  Maybe even irresponsible.  Better advice/direction would be to help the player accurately target the level where they can be successful (and where they are wanted), wouldn't it?

 

"Anyone with any ability can play college ball if they want to."  Really?  Can we look at this realistically?  About 1 in 10 or 12 varsity HS players go on to play in college.  If you play varsity baseball, you have some ability.  Most HS varsity players "want" to play in college.  A significant number of players try to make the local college team but are cut in the fall.  Some of those players would have had a better chance if they found a lesser program, most often further away from home.  But that would have cost them much more money (out-of-state or small NAIA/D3 private school) which most could not reasonably afford to attend, let alone afford to make the recommended visit trips to determine if the school would be a good match.  So, despite having some ability and honest desire to play in college, it is not a realistic option for many. I follow the HS kids I coach and in some instances, try to help them navigate the recruiting process.  I follow the club and showcase kids I coach.  I follow kids in our league that I feel have potential to advance to the next level.  I have been a college roster browser for several years in an effort to be able to properly guide kids in the right direction when they are navigating the recruiting process.  I know FAR too many good HS V players (all-league and better) who have tried and failed to make a college roster. 

 

Good players are competitive and driven to reach for the highest level they can. So, often, they over-reach.  Then, when they are cut at that given level, it becomes unrealistic to disrupt the academic aspect, change schools and try again.

 

Almost every player underestimates both the caliber of competition and the difficulty of the extra workload that is college athletics.  It is a difficult balance that requires much more than just to "have some ability and want to play college baseball". 

 

So, again, to make it sound so easy is not good, responsible advice to the aspiring player.  To do anything but prepare him for how tough the road ahead is going to be is an injustice.  Don't you think?

 

So I'll ask again with all sincerity why you feel compelled to make these points...

 

And some other questions for you...

Do you think things are more or less competitive now as compared to when you played?

What experiences, successes and failures are you having with the kids you coach in regards to landing them at a college (playing baseball)?

Just trying to understand where you are coming from.

 

 

 

 

Most of what you say I am in full agreement with.  I do not however agree that being on a varsity team by itself says you have some ability.  I know terms like this are always subjective.  I tend to be on the stricter side of these terms.  'Having some ability' to me in the pitching world would be topping at at least 82 or 83 and cruising around 80.  And yes this will get you into a lot of D3's and I just saw an old friend a couple weeks ago who is an NAIA coach of a decent program.  He has those guys on his team.  My advice to my players, my son and his teammates is more in the line of never ever give up if its your dream, there is someplace you can play.  Not trying to be a jerk and minimize anyone's accomplishment just trying to encourage.   We have a kid just like this who topped at 82.  He is more of a soccer player but may play baseball at the local D3 as well.  I was hoping our best player would play somewhere but he had an ACT over 30 and was second in his class.  He targeted institutions based soley on academics and will not play baseball.  He is exactly the kid we are talking about.  Topped at 86, could have gone somewhere, got a couple nibbles probably more from being a solid kid.  But what he would have had to compromise academically to go play somewhere he was not willing to do.  I told him if that was what was right for him he was making a great decision.  I do not advise kids to just go anywhere with reckless abandon simply for the sake of baseball.   I am just making the point that they 'could'.

To answer another question competition today is much fiercer IMO.

Why I feel its important to make these points is again by way of encouragement.   We have a lot of kids and parents who are wondering and may never post.  If you tell kids they have no chance it deflates them and makes them give up IMO.  There is more than one way to skin a cat.  I am always open minded to other ways.  Your way if I understand you correctly is to try and motivate by warning them how hard they have to work to get there.  I have no issue with that.  I want to achieve the same thing - hard work to achieve a goal.  I just like putting the carrot out there - hey keep working hard, you can do it, there will be a place for you when the time comes.  My hope for my son is he hits the magic 90 mark so he has choices.  But if he stalls at 85 I want him to know he still has choices.  Just not the same choices.  If he wants to go D1 just to do it.  And play against some great teams rather than be on a great team then so be it.  If he wants to go to an NAIA and be a little bigger part of the equation I would support that.  If he never gets much beyond 80 which I would think highly unlikely but you never know I would be happy to go watch him play at the local D3.  Or maybe he will just hang up the cletes and move on with life.  And I will support that also.  I just want to treat every kid the same way I would my own.  I tell my son all the time to block out negativity.   If someone is telling you that you can't move on from them.  Get them out of your life and replace them with people who want to help you achieve your dreams. I also warn him that every day if you are not getting better you are getting worse.  He has to work if it truly his his dream. Then when the time comes, just like you I would help him make the best decision for him.  And believe it or not some kids really do just want to be a small fish in a big pond.  Its fun for them just to be around greatness.   Go pitch their 12 innings over the course of an entire season and enjoy the time whether they got any scholarship money or not.  I have a good friend who went D1 and was 'on the team'.  Didn't always travel and was pretty much strictly a bullpen coach.  He had an absolute blast.  He 'played' with and against future big leaguers.  Bottom line was thats where he wanted to go to school and that superseded better opportunities to be on the field elsewhere.  Not everybody's goals are the same.  And we have to remember even if we don't understand or agree it is their goal, their dream and their life.  We are here to support and encourage that.  Sorry for the long post.  Hope this clarifies where I am coming from.

I would like to see the % of MLB pitchers that cruise in the 90's.  Watching a few games I see many cruising in the upper 80's. 

http://triblive.com/mobile/542...96/mph-velocity-cole

Money quote:

 

In 2008, the average major-league fastball registered 90.9 mph.

Last season, the average fastball reached 92.0 mph.

575 guys have thrown at least 10 innings this season.

 

291 of them have an average FB velocity of 92+

 

446 of them have an average FB velocity of 90+

 

I don't know of anywhere you can get velocity ranges similar to what PG publishes for MLB pitchers, but if you assume a 3-4 mph range on their best fastball, I'd assume any MLB pitcher who's averaging at least 92 is basically never dipping into the 80s on that fastball..

 

Also, FWIW, the list of guys in the 80s is, not surprisingly, dominated by LHP, relievers, and trick delivery guys. And a shout out to Alex Claudio's 15 IP without cracking 84 on his best pitch (average velocity) and throws roughly 2/3 of his pitches in the 68-77 range (again, average velocity).

Thanks for the great post.  I do have a better understanding of where you are coming from and think we do agree on much more than I previously thought.  Not that there is anything wrong with having different POV's.  I certainly practice preaching from both sides depending on the individual circumstance.  I just think that, here, where we usually don't know all the details of each reader's situation, we are better serving them by informing them of the likely realities, pushing them to reach well beyond the minimum and work hard to do everything possible to achieve their goals.  Put them in the best possible position to succeed.  So, yes, you do understand me correctly.

 

I do agree that not all players have that need to be a heavy contributor but will be excited just to be part of the program.  And I do really think that is great.  I also agree that things are much more competitive than they were five, ten, twenty, thirty, fifty years ago.  Unfortunately, the combined effect is that it is even more likely that those who are happy just to make the team won't make the team.

 

So, tying this back to the thread, yes there are guys at D1 who are mid 80's guys.  Yes, there are guys at lower level small schools who are upper 70's guys.  But if you want to have the experience that you consider to be true college baseball, if you want to have a solid shot at getting a look and surviving fall cuts, if you want to be part of a decent competitive program, if you want to avoid going to a weak program in the middle of nowhere just to be on a roster, if you want to target the highest level that you have a chance to succeed, don't settle for having the bare minimum tools.  Work hard to improve them.  Do everything possible to maximize your potential.  Then, work just as hard to find the right fit.  This certainly includes P's to work hard to maximize their velo, whatever that may be.

 

2020dad -- you're in Wisconsin right?   I think that is coloring your perception a bit, just as being in California colors mine.

 

To see what I mean focus on the concept of a not very good or competitive  "local"  D3, at which just about anybody with a bit of talent could play.  That concept is not  universally applicable across the country.  There is not a single D3 school in all of  Northern California.   If fact,  in all of California, there is only one D3 conference.  Basically a  9 team conference, with  all 9 teams being clustered in  So Cal.  A number of schools in that conference are extremely  selective and admit students from all over the country, indeed all over the world.   Even some of the less selective schools that  draw a larger % of their students from their local areas, still  are very serious about their athletics and, at a minimum,  heavily recruit student athletes  from up and down the West Coast and Hawaii  -- sometimes farther afield. 

 

In all of Washington State,  Oregon, and California combined there are 19 baseball playing D3 schools.   These three states have a combined population of nearly 50 million.   Plus in each of these states, baseball is intense and intensely competitive -- most intense in California, but Washington and Oregon are very, very serious about their baseball too.   So there are a  LOT of very talented baseball players in these states -- a lot -- and at all levels they are chasing a very scarce resource -- college roster spots.  

 

I can definitely assure you that no kid who grows up playing baseball in California or the West Coast generally can possibly have the attitude that if all else fails,  I will just go to the "local D3."  Just not the right mind  set to have here.   There is no guarantee at all that there will be a spot for you.  Many of those D3 spots will in fact be taken by kids who could play D1 elsewhere in the country, but don't want to travel to what they (rightly or wrongly) regard as the ends of the earth to keep playing baseball.   Instead, they opt for D3 (or some other non-D1 level). Bottom line, the competition for roster spots in this broad region is, at all levels, extremely fierce.  And kids know it. 

 

Wisconsin is an altogether different cup of tea, I grant.   Your state has 21 D3 programs -- more than California, Washington and Oregon combined.  Three  of them  are legitimate kick ass national powerhouses, some are highly competitive to middling competitive, and some of the rest are just blah.  Plus the  population of your state is less than 6 million. And I don't know, but I kind of doubt that high school and club  baseball is in general as intensely competitive as it is here. 

 

What I'm saying is that we've  got a very different supply and demand equation here in the West Coast than you have there in Wisconsin.   There are  many more (lower level) opportunities for players there than for players here on the West Coast. (I know there is only one D1 program in your state, so that complicates things.  I think that is part of  what enables your top D3's to be so awesome, though.)    If you are not a very strong player here and you want to keep playing, there just are not that many "local"  options.  There are some -- mostly among less competitive JC's.  But even making one of those teams is no cake walk.   In a different post you talked about the guys the coaches have to "settle for."  The guys that they didn't or wouldn't go out and  recruit but who they would find acceptable if they showed up and were the last resort or something like that.   Well, in these parts, not many programs have to "settle"  for guys in this way.   There are just way too many talented players who want to keep playing and way too few available roster spots for that to happen. 

 

 Bottom line.  Though I get where you are coming from and if I were talking to Wisconsin kids I might feel more or less the same way,   I wouldn't at all recommend to kids out here that they adopt the kind of mind set you recommend.  The mind set here has to be, I have to work my tail off.  I have to be prepared to compete against the best.  I cannot be complacent.  And even at that, there are no guarantees. 

 

 

I was probably rounding down when I said "sitting 84".  I went and saw Nevada, Fresno St., USF, Utah Valley and a few other schools last season.  All solid D1 programs.  I KNOW what I saw the games I went to.  Of course this is not an indication of anything more than the games I saw.  At the Nevada/Fresno St. game, which is the example I was using, I saw 6 pitchers.  2 touched 90 but none of the six were sitting there.  The starting pitcher for Nevada was 84-85 mostly.  A few 86s mixed in.  If you took the average fast ball speed for those six pitchers (two LHP and four RHP) it would have averaged about 86-87 MPH.  This falls right in line with what I was saying.  When I saw USF (forgot who they were playing) it was very similar.

I saw mid week games, so, I am sure the teams have weekend starts who throw harder.  That said, this (the UN/Fresno St game) was a conference game. 

I have seen one of the weekend starters for Nevada (conference pitcher of the year) pitch many times, both in junior college (Western Nevada) and at UN.  He can touch 90 as a lefty but sits about 88 MPH. 

My point was not to speak for all of college baseball.  I was giving an example of games I saw myself, sitting right behind several radar guns and tracked pitches.  This is solid D1 baseball with about half the guys sitting in that 85-87 range. 

Do I think anyone is sitting 78 and playing solid D1 baseball, probably not, unless they have some other skill set.  Does a guy have to throw 90+ to even be considered? No.

       
       
Despite our long winded posts I believe we have found common ground!  Thats what its all about.  And trust me in this household at least we are working as hard as we can to be a solid contributer on a quality D1 team.  But if that doesn't happen (after working his hardest to make it happen) then he can hold his head high and be proud to fill whatever role at whatever level.

Leftside,

I was going to respond earlier regarding the Neveda/Fresno reference but elected to stay away. I have personal experience with both these programs. First, UN & FS would not play mid week games during conference play. UN released a 6' 4" RHP when Johson took over. By the way he topped out at 94 this past year & sat 89-91. At FS,

RHP starters

Shull top 96 sits 92-94

Mundell top 95 sits 89-92

Borst top 90 sits 87-88

Lambert top 93 sits 89-90

Relief

Reece top 94 sits 88-92

Munro top 90 sits 87-89

Rameras [fres] top 93 sits 89-91

LHP starters

Thomas [fres] top 93 sits 89-90 ...check his stats in the cape this past summer era 1.1

Arias [rs fres] top 93 sits 89-90....check his stats in the cape this summer top k's guy

Lee top 92 sits 89-90

Relief

Rodriguez top 86 sits 84

Williams top 90 sits 87-88

I was at all 6 of those conference games and don't remember guys cruising 84.

Now, to the OP of 75-77 shot at playing DI. Here in the west, 75-77 will not get very far at any level. We have JC guys sitting 90's.

I don't want to crush any kids dreams here, but the transition from HS to college is monumental. If by some chance, a 5' 10",75-77 guy gets to the next level, it will only last until the next recuriting class.

You're right.  It was the Sat game I went to looking back.  I must have confused myself.  USF was a weekday game.  

Dietrich the UNR starter was sitting in that 84-87 range.  Big guy if memory serves.  Lee was the starter for Fresno St and was, like you say, sitting in that 88-90 range with some 91's.  He was the only pitcher the scouts seems to really be interested in.  I remember Thomas the LHP pitcher from Fresno St. not touching 90 (again going by memory, which can be shaky), a friend told me to watch for him.  Some of the UNR pen guys were in that mid 80s (84-86) range.  Romero was the slowest of the bunch (again, going by memory) as a lefty freshman, although I think he only faced a couple of batters.  As I said before (correcting my original post) 84 is probably not correct for a cruising speed.  I am going off of memory from a chilly game in Feb. Guys throwing in that sort of range....84-88, yeah I saw that.  I remember two guys touching 90, Lee and I can't remember the second guy.  

Maybe my memory is betraying me, maybe I am having a reverse "daddy" radar gun affect....taking 2 mph off the readings in my memory....maybe next time I go to a game I will let you know and you can tell me what I saw.  

No matter what that 75-77 mph is going to be tough, the only possible exception is a guy who is a sidearmer or is a specialist of some kind.  

No worries Leftside! DI coaches, scouts & bloggers love 90+. A lot of these DI guys get recurited because they touched 90 and once there settle in at a velo & movement that gets outs. Still, the next group of 90+ guys are on there way in next year.

 

Noticed Barry Zito on the mound yesterday for the A's. I saw him a few weeks ago and he was dominating at AAA sitting 81-82 (top pitch I saw was 83). I see that yesterday, he was averaging 85 with the FB and got knocked around a bit. He was a guy always most effective when his fastball sat in the low 80's. Seemed like whenever he "muscled up" into the mid-80's he got rocked.

Would be interesting to see what the movement on his pitches looks like at different velocities. At Zito/Moyer-like velocities, an extra couple of MPH isn't really going to do anything, especially if it comes at the cost of location or movement.

I remember hearing an old pitcher -- it might have been Tommy John or Jim Kaat, or maybe even Jamie Moyer -- talking about pitching. It was something like: "there are three aspects of pitching: velocity, movement, and location. In the majors, you can't survive with one of the three. With two of the three, however, you can do quite well. And if you have all three, you're a superstar."

Since 2019 revived this thread...  did a little research on the national powerhouse D3 here in wisconsin.  Out of 13 who pitched in 2015 I can find just 4 PBR or PG profiles.  While I realize this doesn't mean the other nine are all slow just because they didn't go to these events you can bet some of them are.  Of the four I found profiles for the following were velos...  86, 84 (oddly 81 at PG almost the same time as the 84 at PBR) 82 and 81.  In fairness the 81 was sophomore year and could not find more recent - perhaps a lack of progress?  Can't say.  Point is this is a national powerhouse and the kid who threw 82 as a senior was one of the better pitchers.  This coming spring I am going to make a point to go watch and gun at several games.  Perhaps in the spring of 16 I can revive this again with my report!  Again this is in the spirit of never give up.  For aspiring college pitchers who read this know that you don't have to throw 90 or even close really to have a great college baseball experience!

I think if you watch some lower D1 games and D2, you can see some low velocity pitchers and, if you just happen to watch at the wrong (or right) time, you can get the impression it's pretty common. I remember watching three games on TV one Saturday last season. If memory serves me it was Lafayette/Navy, Jackson St./Alcorn State and...I honestly can't remember the third matchup. I want to say Holy Cross. However, from the six starters and a couple of relievers, I would have sworn that less than half the pitches broke 80mph and the highest velocity I saw was 83. It really caught me off guard. I looked up some of these pitchers and found PG pages on a couple. Sure enough, they were listed as high mid-80's guys (85-87). However, they weren't throwing anywhere near that.

 

Having said that, I will add that I think velocity also adds one important factor for a college pitcher - cushion. If you're throwing low-mid 80's you better perform. if you're throwing 91-93, you'll get plenty of leash to make mistakes.

Nobody would deny that you can thrive at the D3 level with velo in the mid 80's.  Indeed, from what I've been learning that's sort of the bread and butter of D3 pitchers.  Of course, you will still find guys hitting 90 at D3 -- not nearly as many, though.   I doubt that ANY  D3 team, even the most competitive ones,  could put guy after guy out there slinging 90's.

 

And yes you can definitely have a great college experience without having a 90 mph fastball, it seems pretty clear.  The mistake would be to focus solely on D1 as the Holy Grail of college baseball, in comparison to which all other levels simply pale.  The mistake would be to have the mindset  "well, if I can't play D1 baseball, then I couldn't possibly have a great experience."  

I am sure I know of the school you speak of.  And yes, almost none of their kids are PG/PBR profiled.  Heck, PG just did their first showcase in our area this August.  So there are a lot of kids who haven't gone that route.  I think a lot of what we talk about here is skewed towards the power conferences and baseball hotbeds.  It just might be a little different in "fly over" country.  Who knows. 

My son is at a mid-major D1.  We watched them play several times last spring.  I would say that the majority of the pitchers were 84-86.  I am fairly certain we didn't see more than 1 guy touch 90 (them or their opponents) during the games we saw.  My son was told by a couple of the current guys that they "don't use a gun"....and since my son has been there he hasn't seen one.  He touched 91 last spring as a HS senior...and sat 87-88.  One of his current teammates told him he throws harder than any of the returning guys (though another incoming freshman has also been up to 90).  Today is their scout day.....I'm heading up to check it out. Maybe I can add something to this thread based on what I see today.

I remember watching those games too and I was shocked.  Not only at the lack of velo but at some of control issues.  It was pretty early season so maybe guys were just working in or ramping up, who knows?  It was in a smaller conference for sure, but, I remember looking up to see if these were in fact D1 schools.  

True later on.  However Zito came in throwing in the low 90's when that was still relatively "elite" velocity for a LHP.