How often do you run across lower level college pitchers around 75-77mph is this becoming more common

Can I bother someone to outline how the entire D1 pool of 300+ gets broken out?  Keep hearing mid-major, low D1, etc. in addition to Power 5.  Assuming a program is having a good year (i.e. they didn't just lose 3 starting pitchers), how many would you put in the first bucket at having a shot at going to the CWS?  How many of the 300+ are bottom tier and are seldom competitive?

I can go look at one particular team and maybe slot them, but have not paid close enough attention to really classify the entire 300+.

2017LHPscrewball posted:

Can I bother someone to outline how the entire D1 pool of 300+ gets broken out?  Keep hearing mid-major, low D1, etc. in addition to Power 5.  Assuming a program is having a good year (i.e. they didn't just lose 3 starting pitchers), how many would you put in the first bucket at having a shot at going to the CWS?  How many of the 300+ are bottom tier and are seldom competitive?

I can go look at one particular team and maybe slot them, but have not paid close enough attention to really classify the entire 300+.

Toget an idea of where a program stands go to RPI rankings.  You can try this http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/currentrpi.html

MidAtlanticDad posted:

RJM posted:

Any successful D3 pitcher throwing in the upper 70's has great command and multiple quality pitches. He's mixing up speed well to make his fastball appear faster than it is.

2020dad never said they were successful.  

Bingo.   There are simply not enough 'great' or even 'really good' pitchers to go around to mlb draft, D1, D2, NAIA,  D3, and juco.  Not to mention some really good pitchers who opt for other sports in college.  Or who just simply don't want to play.  The middle and end of D3 staffs is not remarkable.

2020dad posted:

MidAtlanticDad posted:

RJM posted:

Any successful D3 pitcher throwing in the upper 70's has great command and multiple quality pitches. He's mixing up speed well to make his fastball appear faster than it is.

2020dad never said they were successful.  

Bingo.   There are simply not enough 'great' or even 'really good' pitchers to go around to mlb draft, D1, D2, NAIA,  D3, and juco.  Not to mention some really good pitchers who opt for other sports in college.  Or who just simply don't want to play.  The middle and end of D3 staffs is not remarkable.

Thats why so many Dominicans are in the pros.

I ran across this RPI website here on here a few months back.  Does a nice job ranking conferences also.  Perhaps the term "mid-major" is particularly confusing to me - anyone have a generic definition of "mid-major"?

http://warrennolan.com/baseball/2015/conferencerpi

luv baseball posted:

Originally Posted by phillyinNJ:

PG is only tracking about 500 or so high school ballplayers (2016 thru 2019) that have touched 90 or above...considering the amount they see and the amount of HS pitchers there are, this is not a large amount out of the United States...I'm sure they haven't seen them all, but chances are if you have touched 90, you are probably being told (or recommended) to attend an event.

Rough math - over 10,000 HS in America.  Each school probably has at least 10 JV and V pitchers so that is 100,000+ kids and 500 at 90.  The is 1/2 of 1%.

Watched several hundred HS games and 90% were <=83 MPH.  There were about 10% between 83 -88.  Saw 3 legitimate 90's.  Showcases were a different story but the actual HS games typically was a duel of one kid at 77-81 vs. another at 80-83.

And just to be clear....Luv watched a lot of baseball games in a league that puts out A LOT of college baseball players, on a very regular basis.

I always thought that the classification depended upon being a D1 A, AA ir just D1 which is given for football programs.

So for me, top  tier baseball programs would be the top 50, mid tier everything above the last 100 or 50.

As far as the 90, I am not just not sure that many really realize that there are so few  HS players that actually hit 90+, or ever will. Mine hit 90 his HS junior year, and 91-92 senior year but he cruised at 86-87. His  college high came as a junior at 94 along with improved mechanics, and at 29 he was hitting 99 on a good relief outing (which in the world of proball isn't at every outing).  There is a lot of development as well as maturing that takes many years , constant tweeking, unfortunately time runs out before the opportunity.

So some of you, whose sons are hitting 85-87 in HS, that could or could not be the max.  There has to be a lot of projection that is taken into consideration when figuring out what the pitcher will be throwing when he goes to college. Exceptional projection, IMO.  We all know that those hitting high numbers will never set foot on a college campus. For most everyone else, they will more than likely be a mid tier or other division player, that's not necessarily a bad thing but for all of those gunning your sons day after day, keep in mind that the chances of hitting high numbers in HS will not always happen.

I've sat with a few MLB scouts and compared radar readings at some Cape League games. These teams have some of the best D1 players from across the country. Cruising over 93 mph was the exception, and I saw it very infrequently. Upper 80's to 90/91 was the norm.  I asked the scouts where all the 95+ guys were, and they told me most of those guys usually get drafted before going to or completing college.  

Hammer823 posted:

I've sat with a few MLB scouts and compared radar readings at some Cape League games. These teams have some of the best D1 players from across the country. Cruising over 93 mph was the exception, and I saw it very infrequently. Upper 80's to 90/91 was the norm.  I asked the scouts where all the 95+ guys were, and they told me most of those guys usually get drafted before going to or completing college.  

. . . not to mention that a lot of college pitchers lay off for the summer if they've done a lot of pitching during the college season or rehabbing for some reason. 

90-91 norm... why would anyone expect much more from any college league.

90-91 is MLB average.

At the lower level that's where it should be.  In Juco being a 1st time pitcher I thew 70-75 and our other guys threw 80, one guy was off the charts, 90-95 idk, but it was all straight.  

2020dad posted:

Since 2019 revived this thread...  did a little research on the national powerhouse D3 here in wisconsin.  Out of 13 who pitched in 2015 I can find just 4 PBR or PG profiles.  While I realize this doesn't mean the other nine are all slow just because they didn't go to these events you can bet some of them are.  Of the four I found profiles for the following were velos...  86, 84 (oddly 81 at PG almost the same time as the 84 at PBR) 82 and 81.  In fairness the 81 was sophomore year and could not find more recent - perhaps a lack of progress?  Can't say.  Point is this is a national powerhouse and the kid who threw 82 as a senior was one of the better pitchers.  This coming spring I am going to make a point to go watch and gun at several games.  Perhaps in the spring of 16 I can revive this again with my report!  Again this is in the spirit of never give up.  For aspiring college pitchers who read this know that you don't have to throw 90 or even close really to have a great college baseball experience!

Well here we are, spring of 2016!  Accomplished a lot today.  Went to the D3 game. Found out my pocket radar aligns pretty well with the stalkers. Saw their velos when we came in.  Then when we sat down used our pocket radar.  The kid the scouts were there to see was 86-91.  I did get one outlier of 93.  Once he was done throwing the scouts packed up and left!  Saw three others throw for the two teams before the rain came and we went home.  Top speeds of 82, 80 and 78.  All three cruised mostly in the 70's.  A lot of 76 and 77 mph fastballs.  The 82 was the starter for the other team. So the top 5 in the nation undefeated d3 team had a kid topping at 80 pitching.  Perhaps not one of their stars but seeing innings on one of the most venerable d3 programs in the nation.  

2020dad posted:

2020dad posted:

Since 2019 revived this thread...  did a little research on the national powerhouse D3 here in wisconsin.  Out of 13 who pitched in 2015 I can find just 4 PBR or PG profiles.  While I realize this doesn't mean the other nine are all slow just because they didn't go to these events you can bet some of them are.  Of the four I found profiles for the following were velos...  86, 84 (oddly 81 at PG almost the same time as the 84 at PBR) 82 and 81.  In fairness the 81 was sophomore year and could not find more recent - perhaps a lack of progress?  Can't say.  Point is this is a national powerhouse and the kid who threw 82 as a senior was one of the better pitchers.  This coming spring I am going to make a point to go watch and gun at several games.  Perhaps in the spring of 16 I can revive this again with my report!  Again this is in the spirit of never give up.  For aspiring college pitchers who read this know that you don't have to throw 90 or even close really to have a great college baseball experience!

Well here we are, spring of 2016!  Accomplished a lot today.  Went to the D3 game. Found out my pocket radar aligns pretty well with the stalkers. Saw their velos when we came in.  Then when we sat down used our pocket radar.  The kid the scouts were there to see was 86-91.  I did get one outlier of 93.  Once he was done throwing the scouts packed up and left!  Saw three others throw for the two teams before the rain came and we went home.  Top speeds of 82, 80 and 78.  All three cruised mostly in the 70's.  A lot of 76 and 77 mph fastballs.  The 82 was the starter for the other team. So the top 5 in the nation undefeated d3 team had a kid topping at 80 pitching.  Perhaps not one of their stars but seeing innings on one of the most venerable d3 programs in the nation.  

Hmm . . . I had heard that Jered Weaver was going on a rehab assignment, but I didn't realize they had sent him to pitch in a d3 game in Wisconsin!

2020,

Is it so important to post to "prove" you were right?

The kid throwing 82 got lit up for 10 hits and 7 runs in 5 2/3 according to the box score and the team is now 2-10.

The one the scouts were looking at seemed to do awfully well in the Northwood's against many of the very best in all of college baseball:

"Ranked No. 100 on Baseball America’s College Top 100 Draft Prospects … ranked as the No. 1 prospect in the Northwoods League on Baseball America’s 2015 Summer College League Top Prospects Index."

I watched at earlier season match up in Texas which involved the current #1 and another very good Texas D3.  One kid was around 80 and he did fine...one time through the lineup.  Got smoked the next inning.  The #1 threw several over the 3 games and they went from 84 to 92.  I don't travel with a gun, though. Just relied on the readings taken at the game by the coaches.

Watched the UNC-Davidson Tuesday night ball game this past week.  One of those teams sent out both RHP and LHPs throwing into the 90s, and one of those teams threw half of their bullpen and only 1 cracked 85 (once), with the rest in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Unfortunately a lot of runs were walked in with loaded bases. I'll let you figure out which team did which. 

So your telling me there's a chance? 

How often? I don't know. I don't care. What difference does it make? Unless you throw 70's and want to believe that because others do it you can. 

My comment had no agenda, just an observation. The Davidson kids are special talents, with priorities that are focused first on academics and athletics second. Hell, one of those kids might be operating on me some day. They didn't enjoy getting their butts kicked, but they sure enjoyed the game!

Well first this isn't my thread.  The OP got blasted for suggesting college pitchers could be in the 70's.  I stated back then I would update what I found in the spring and I did just that.  Simple as that. And yes I bring my pocket radar everywhere it's a hobby and it's fun. If you build model airplanes for fun I won't take issue with that!  We enjoy what we enjoy. And yes it is important for those kids who are barely making 80 to know they can play somewhere.  Not everyone is a big time player.  Some kids just want to play for the fun and the love of the game. I have no horse in this race.  My kid is 14 and I have no idea where his velocity will end up.  But if it does die at 80 I will be more than happy to go watch his lower level team play, lose most of its games, and be proud of all those kids for just wanting to play hard and give it their best shot.  And by the way the kid throwing 82 really didn't do that badly.  Not a lot of hard hit balls.  Just got beat by a much better team. So none of those kids from the other team should fell badly about themselves. 

2020dad posted:

Well first this isn't my thread.  The OP got blasted for suggesting college pitchers could be in the 70's.  I stated back then I would update what I found in the spring and I did just that.  Simple as that. And yes I bring my pocket radar everywhere it's a hobby and it's fun. If you build model airplanes for fun I won't take issue with that!  We enjoy what we enjoy. And yes it is important for those kids who are barely making 80 to know they can play somewhere.  Not everyone is a big time player.  Some kids just want to play for the fun and the love of the game. I have no horse in this race.  My kid is 14 and I have no idea where his velocity will end up.  But if it does die at 80 I will be more than happy to go watch his lower level team play, lose most of its games, and be proud of all those kids for just wanting to play hard and give it their best shot.  And by the way the kid throwing 82 really didn't do that badly.  Not a lot of hard hit balls.  Just got beat by a much better team. So none of those kids from the other team should fell badly about themselves. 

I didn't think the OP got blasted, its been a good discussion.

Absolutely there is a place for everyone to play if they work hard enough to get there and not every one is a big time player. If you did pay attention more than likely most of the players of parents here end up in smaller programs than larger ones.  Once a player gets past HS on a college roster, no matter what level, fun turns into a different animal.   That's why I have said over and over that those D1's in top conferences more than likely are not for everyone.  Go where you will be the big fish in the little pond. Go to a program that shows that they can compete, you don't have to win every game or go to the conference WS.

I am not sure about what you mean by going to play in a lower level.  All divisions have different levels. All conferences have different levels. Do you think its fun to be the team with the worst record in a power conference?  NO, it is not! And I don't believe that you would be happy sending your son to a team that loses most of their games. Maybe they would struggle in the conference, but lose most of the games?  I know my son wouldn't be, and we wouldn't either.  Losing doesn't make happy players, happy coaches and it shows on the field.  

In case you didn't know, infielddad has been one of the biggest supporters of D3 programs and for players that aren't as toolsey as others but get the job done.

Maybe the way you state things, doesn't always mean to come that way. I understand. Maybe you didnt realize that often you don't like how things are said here, yet you may not realize that it works both ways.

Here is the deal, if anyone wants to play in college, worry more about what you do in the classroom than what you will do on the field.

My son played against Forest Park last year in the state finals, and they had three legit low 90s pitchers, and one went to Radford to catch.  Now that my son is playing college ball at a D2 school, I have yet to see a pitcher hit 90.  One may now because he was hitting upper 80s in February.  Most I have seen have been low to mid 80s.  

I have mainly watched guys from 72-78 all year with NCCAA and Naia non power house schools and these are all with the gun. 

My son has a friend at a D3....we haven't been there this year, but watched them quite a few times the past 2 seasons.  They had guys who didn't hit 80....and so did the teams they played.  My son's D1 has guys who are low 80's at best....and he thinks they've seen opponents this year who didn't hit 80.  Yesterday the guys throwing during his DH were all mid-upper 80's....nobody hit 90, though it was 40 degrees and the wind blowing about 35mph right in the pitchers face.

I should go back to school and play.  I am hitting 82 consistently right now, better than in my prime.  I wish HS softball was the same, with girls throwing 45...nope, they throw 60-65 (88-95 equiv) from D1-D7, same as the top college kids.  

I'm getting back in the game. I throw just as hard now as I did in college 35 years ago. The ball just arrives a lot later now.

Mine is similar RJM. I throw just as hard, I just have to stand 20 feet closer.

I don't think that it is all about how many guys you have throwing heat or not, but how much depth you  actually have that determines success.  This could also be among your position players.