How to analysis Roster Turnover 101

And now 19 in the portal to leave this year, and no one going to Eastern Kentucky yet.

Art, that's awesome work.

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.   

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@d-mac posted:

They had their best season in recent history in 2022.  I know two players there.  One transferred out and one was a starter.   Both have good things to say about the program.  The one that transferred was a walk on who didn't have a lot of options.  He was happy to be part of the team, but the roster number dropping from 40 to 35 got him.  I wonder how many of the transfers fit that mold?  Just trying to add some possible context to the data.   While there are exceptions, coaching changes usually don't work out very well for the current players or commits.  

Great points.  The data just provides an opening toward analysis and context that you added.

@adbono posted:

Agree that this is great information. And while this may surprising to some, it shouldn’t be. This is what is going on in competitive D1 baseball programs.

@abono  I agree, when shown visually people normally get the ah ha moment.

IMHO,  those that have been in the trenches and have some battle scars have been discussing this issue throughout the community.

New guest that are trying to make heads and tails of the recruiting process normally  have to do a significant amount of research in order to assume what may or may not be happening.

Fortunately, we can now cut through the b.s. and start talking apples to apples.

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro?

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone has sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

@baseballhs posted:

Yes, definitely happening.  Many are being told point blank that they need their scholarship so they can get guys from the portal.  This happened to a LOT of kids.  We even had a 7th round pick who called coach to talk through coming back or going and was told his scholarship had already been given away.  Seriously.

With the exception of a few, the bonuses were close to slot value . Note, the player that received low bonuses didn't have leverage.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

Came directly from the player.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@TPM posted:

I don't doubt your story but this isn't happening everywhere. Seems to be a huge issue in one particular part of the country.

I do know that players in the portal are being offered NIL opportunities which could cover tuition as well as 5th year players. There are articles out about how LSU is getting top talent through NIL opportunities.

As far as draft picks, coaches usually have prior discussions about the seriousness of the players intent. It's either you do or you don't. Players should not be held hostage and neither should coaches. When son was recruited he was told point blank, we will give you a scholarship for 3 years, if you are not drafted you pay your last year or go sign FA. I know of a player who went into portal got picked up by a great program, didn't get drafted because he didn't have the #s to get a pick and signed FA. So what was the true intent of the player in the first place? He really wanted to go pro.

I think a big problem was created when the NCAA gave an extra year of eligibility. No coach and no program is obligated to keep any player unless they made an impact to the program.

There is blame to go around but the coach bashing is not necessary. Unless someone sat in the room with the coach and player, don't believe everything you here.

JMO

IMHO, there is no blame, each stakeholder (governing bodies (e.g. NCAA), schools, coach, students) had to review the cancellation based on their objectives.

Should a student lose eligibility due to circumstances that are out of their control?

I agree, with your assessment that it is a case by case situation.

Maybe there will be an independent survey (anonymous) done by each governing body that would identify the various outcomes.

@baseballhs posted:

I’m not sure how you can say this, just going alphabetically, there is hardly a team without 10 guys in the portal…regardless of where they are in the country.

@baseballhs IMHO there are a couple of events that we would need to look at  regional, conference and school level.

Note, the challenge with the portal is that is doesn't contain position and grad class.  I didn't have time to add that those tags to this year's data

That being said:

The easy events are:

1. HC Changes (to date 42 changes)  - school level  (we can ignore some of the latest changes)
2. Decrease roster size (40 to 35) -  school level

The draft and free agent signing are a little bit more nuance.

History of new commits: New joiners (high school, JUCO pipeline)

Regardless of what is happening now, the question is how does the coach normally manage his roster?  What are the fact patterns?

I don't know if conclusions can be drawn based on previous history, but it might a interesting research project.

IMHO,  next year's spring roster will shed some of the light on this, but will also need some unstructured data, e.g survey to provide the appropriated context.

CBI is correct. There are circumstances, he mentioned, that have to be considered to make a judgment on what's going on because we don't know the status of the player.

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

@Consultant posted:

Question: Who benefits? The School, Coaches, Player, Parent, the Pro Scout.

Bob

The team. I believe that's every coaches ultimate goal.

JMO

Or should be...

Baseballhs is 100% correct on this issue. And it isn’t limited to any particular region of the country.

@TPM posted:

Did the coach legitimately take away their scholarship? Some here seem to think that is what's happening, it's not.

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find some one to take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft in 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

@baseballhs posted:

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find sonorous take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft kin 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

I support this post 100%. It is right on point.
  I was at a local showcase 2 weeks ago and ran into an All Region 5 JuCo player who had been committed to a ranked Big12 school and was scheduled to report August 1.  I asked him how his summer was going and he said, “I’m looking for a place to play. My Big12 school called and took my scholarship away. They told me that for the amount of scholarship money they offered me they could get 2 guys out of the transfer portal. So that’s what they were going to do.” And that’s exactly wjhat they did.
  These anecdotal stories are real. Statements that “this isn’t happening “ are at best limited to a few programs.

@adbono posted:

I support this post 100%. It is right on point.
  I was at a local showcase 2 weeks ago and ran into an All Region 5 JuCo player who had been committed to a ranked Big12 school and was scheduled to report August 1.  I asked him how his summer was going and he said, “I’m looking for a place to play. My Big12 school called and took my scholarship away. They told me that for the amount of scholarship money they offered me they could get 2 guys out of the transfer portal. So that’s what they were going to do.” And that’s exactly wjhat they did.
  These anecdotal stories are real. Statements that “this isn’t happening “ are at best limited to a few programs.

@adbono there are a lot of moving pieces, my head is spinning.

Quick question, what is the signing deadline for a JUCO player who commits to a 4 yr school? Is the commitment of a JUCO player no different than the HS player?  Meaning more of a verbal commitment?

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono there are a lot of moving pieces, my head is spinning.

Quick question, what is the signing deadline for a JUCO player who commits to a 4 yr school? Is the commitment of a JUCO player no different than the HS player?  Meaning more of a verbal commitment?

As far as I know JuCo players can be signed by a 4 year school up until the time classes begin. If an NLI is signed the commitment is the same. If no NLI there is no commitment on either side. But in the case of this particular JuCo player he had been offered (and accepted) a scholarship and had signed an NLI. The 4 year school reneged on their commitment in mid-July.

@adbono posted:

As far as I know JuCo players can be signed by a 4 year school up until the time classes begin. If an NLI is signed the commitment is the same. If no NLI there is no commitment on either side. But in the case of this particular JuCo player he had been offered (and accepted) a scholarship and had signed an NLI. The 4 year school reneged on their commitment in mid-July.

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life miserable, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

I can say from my son's school, there were 10 players in the portal. 5 players were cut out, and 5 requested to be put in. On the positive side I can say all have found homes. I don't know the complete breakdown but 1 committed to a P5 that was in the CWS, 1 is at a HA D3, and most of the remaining are committed to D1s. One kid gave up baseball and accepted a scholarship to play squash or some racquet sport somewhere.

It does seem like kids are seeing this as the new norm, and don't expect to be at a school for 4 years. It's not great...

As a parent it makes you jaded. I get emails from my 2022s school about coming to campus events, to join their Facebook groups, etc. And all I can think is that it's unlikely my son will be there for 4 years and I delete them.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life misery, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

It’s all about semantics and plausible deniability. I’m sure the words are chisen very carefully so if questioned the school can always assert that it was the player’s choice given the circumstances. Btw, the ones doing this are very adept at presenting the circumstances in a way that staying is not an option. The system has always been slanted in favor of the schools. The NCAA has made sure of that.

@nycdad posted:

I can say from my son's school, there were 10 players in the portal. 5 players were cut out, and 5 requested to be put in. On the positive side I can say all have found homes. I don't know the complete breakdown but 1 committed to a P5 that was in the CWS, 1 is at a HA D3, and most of the remaining are committed to D1s. One kid gave up baseball and accepted a scholarship to play squash or some racquet sport somewhere.

It does seem like kids are seeing this as the new norm, and don't expect to be at a school for 4 years. It's not great...

As a parent it makes you jaded. I get emails from my 2022s school about coming to campus events, to join their Facebook groups, etc. And all I can think is that it's unlikely my son will be there for 4 years and I delete them.

@NYCDAD @adbono d1baseball has a interesting article pertaining to the new norm and limiting fall roster sizes to 45.  It is behind the paywall so I need to respect their protocols.

What they basically have stated is any school can be a potential feeder to the top 20 - 40 schools.

When I get a chance, I will try to summarize in a more coherent way

@adbono posted:

It’s all about semantics and plausible deniability. I’m sure the words are chisen very carefully so if questioned the school can always assert that it was the player’s choice given the circumstances. Btw, the ones doing this are very adept at presenting the circumstances in a way that staying is not an option. The system has always been slanted in favor of the schools. The NCAA has made sure of that.

Agree.  I remember reading a article around 2012 or 2013 referring to the language used.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@NYCDAD @adbono d1baseball has a interesting article pertaining to the new norm and limiting fall roster sizes to 45.  It is behind the paywall so I need to respect their protocols.

What they basically have stated is any school can be a potential feeder to the top 20 - 40 schools.

When I get a chance, I will try to summarize in a more coherent way

Thanks, I have an account and read it.

@baseballhs posted:

Again, I don’t know how you can speak so emphatically about this.  I know for a fact that happened to multiple people on our team. My sons roommate will be surprised to know it’s not happening after he was told point blank that they wanted his scholarship back to get someone from the portal and he should leave. His mom, who was crying as she moved him out of the house and tried to find some one to take over his lease, will also be surprised.  I know for sure about 7 players on our team that this happened to….

I realize your son may not be doing this with his team, but we have lots of friends currently playing at different schools all over the country. It IS happening.

Of course  there are lots of factors playing into this. Portal. longer eligibility (we just took a kid who graduated 3 years before my son and they are both Juniors (eyeroll)), coaching changes,  and coach success pulling experienced players  from the portal instead of developing the ones they have, short draft in 20, and shorter draft now.  I make myself very educated about the current state because we are living it.

I did not say I doubted what you are saying.

I believe a lot of these issues are regional. AL just mentioned B12.

You cannot go by the portal without seeing the info on players. Only coaches can see that. There are lots of factors involved in what's going on.

I am sorry that this is happening in your son's program.

FWIW, son is a volunteer assistant he does not make HC decisions. He does not recruit. His job is to make young pitchers better. I don't know if he would want to work under a coach that keeps restocking every season instead of rebuilding.

@nycdad @adbono @tpm @baseballhs

Now you understand why we don't pull fall rosters, commit data.

As for the transfer portal data, as per @TPM there are stories within stories.

An easy way to know what schools are yanking scholarships and offers is to look into the announcements on social media. Whenever you see a player say “after much thought and consideration, and talking to my family, I have decided to reopen my recruiting” that player just had his scholarship or offer taken away. You can then go to that players Twitter page and find out where he was originally committed. And that will be a school that is playing this game. It’s most prevalent at the most competitive D1 schools. So it’s going on in the SEC (notable exceptions being Florida, Tennessee & Vanderbilt), the Big12 (notable exceptions being Oklahoma and cellar dwellers), the ACC, and other competitive conferences as well. Basically anyplace where college baseball is big business it’s likely happening to some degree. It’s less likely to be occurring at lesser D1 conferences.

@adbono posted:

An easy way to know what schools are yanking scholarships and offers is to look into the announcements on social media. Whenever you see a player say “after much thought and consideration, and talking to my family, I have decided to reopen my recruiting” that player just had his scholarship or offer taken away. You can then go to that players Twitter page and find out where he was originally committed. And that will be a school that is playing this game. It’s most prevalent at the most competitive D1 schools. So it’s going on in the SEC (notable exceptions being Florida, Tennessee & Vanderbilt), the Big12 (notable exceptions being Oklahoma and cellar dwellers), the ACC, and other competitive conferences as well. Basically anyplace where college baseball is big business it’s likely happening to some degree. It’s less likely to be occurring at lesser D1 conferences.

@adbono  this doesn't bode well

At what point does the player and his family retain the services of an advisor or legal counsel.

Bob

This is the most important thread about the current state of college baseball I’ve seen on HSBBW. Thank you @CollegebaseballInsights for starting us all with facts. I think it’s the only way to attack this issue and then when you add in all the years of experience across so many levels of baseball on this thread…Wow. A lot of my son’s friends have changed schools for various reasons: changes in coaching staff (move from D1 to D3), NIL (move from ACC to SEC) and “they had the talk with their coach”…to many too name but most would be considered a move down. College baseball was always a business but now, between the NIL and the transfer portal, the blinders are off.

PT;

It is time to change my Major to PreLaw.

Bob

It's not just the transfer portal, NLIs and the extra years of eligibility. The latest MLB draft rules factor in as well. Sure, there are just 20 rounds now, but pro organizations going after non-drafted players with extra money to spend is a thing. Hours after word got out my 2022's son's coach left, an incoming player received 3 calls from pro organizations.

@CollegebaseballInsights posted:

@adbono So if I understand, the signed NLI was as good as the paper it was written on.  And if he balked, they would make his life miserable, if he calls them out, then he would be blacklisted.

This seems illegal

This subject is all over Twitter today. Including a couple of programs being called out publicly. One in particular that I have mentioned before as being a habitual offender. Lots of public outcry calling for NCAA to “fix this problem.” Don’t hold your breath waiting for that!

@adbono posted:

This subject is all over Twitter today. Including a couple of programs being called out publicly. One in particular that I have mentioned before as being a habitual offender. Lots of public outcry calling for NCAA to “fix this problem.” Don’t hold your breath waiting for that!

Saw this...publicizing the offenders probably won't move the needle with the NCAA, but at least it might help educate the kids in HS.

@K9 posted:

Saw this...publicizing the offenders probably won't move the needle with the NCAA, but at least it might help educate the kids in HS.

I can't see this being a NCAA issue, this was bound to happen more cheeks than seats.