Life Changing Money Does

Interesting point.  I certainly agree that the $ amount is and individual thing.  But, the context is the decision of whether to go to college or take draft $, right?  So, assuming going to college is a choice, I think there is probably a minimum value of getting a degree and I think that would be much more than $50K, maybe even more so for those who may see $50K as a big number.

BTW, I TOTALLY agree with the prioritization of happiness and no, life changing money definitely does not guarantee it.  In fact, it is often the opposite.

PGStaff posted:

After reading another current topic I thought the phrase "Life Changing Money" is often mentioned but somewhat meaningless.  

Life changing money is anything that will change someone's life.  For some (a few) there is no such thing as life changing money.  For some it doesn't take much at all to change their life.

This is mostly brought up in discussions about signing a pro contract or going to college.  While being a big supporter of getting a college education, I know that college doesn't always end up producing life changing money.  

Many things are life changing, but life changing money is very much an individual thing.  I often see where a million dollars is used as the number, but it sure doesn't take a million dollars to change the life of someone who lives in severe poverty. And what does a million mean if your father is Donald Trump?

Also, there should always be more than just the amount of money involved in making any life decision.  Happiness is perhaps the most important thing.  Does happiness require "Life Changing" money?  Does life changing money guarantee happiness?

IMO $50,000 might be "more" life changing to some than $2 million to others.

Exactly, it's relative to your current situation. Based on a some people's posts, they would not advise their kid to sign a pro contract if taken lower than low first round. Holy crap, my kid would be stoked to be thought enough of a player to even get drafted, let alone at a level where there is a signing bonus at all. Granted, some players continue to improve and mature in college and their draft stock may rise, but that is a calculated risk. The fact that many sign for a variety of bonus levels tells you that everyone's situation is different. 

If my son were ever in a position to choose to play in college or professionally, my question would always be "what do you want to do? What's your heart telling you?"   

I know that sounds cheesy but it's true. I would absolutely try to provide guidance based on hopefully some wisdom that I have gained through the years but think that kids make decisions a lot of the times based on what they think their parents want. I can appreciate that but it's not what I would want my son to do. 

I am also not naive enough to think that every situation is the same. I know that some kids have to think about what's best for their parents and not themselves and there's nothing wrong with that. 

As much as I would love for my son to attend a college within driving distance, if he chose a college in California I would figure out how to get there as much as possible and watch online. At the same time, I don't see anything wrong with a parent who tells a kid to pick a school within a three hour radius. 

There are so many variables to be considered but I think that a kids maturity level and the ability to handle the grind of minor league ball at 18/19 years old is THE key factor. 

The over/under is that this thread is goes 10.25 pages as we argue about Donald Trump for 2 weeks.

Whose in?

Teaching Elder posted:

The over/under is that this thread is goes 10.25 pages as we argue about Donald Trump for 2 weeks.

Whose in?

I'm out - Later!

There was another link to an article from D1 baseball website posted somewhere the other day that discussed the % of high school first or second round draft picks making the MLB vs % of college first 2 round picks making the MLB that IMHO has to be a factor in what that life changing money # is. My son is a high school sophomore and I have been asked often times what it would take to have him skip college and until I read that article, I don't think my thoughts about life changing money would have been high enough. Basically after having rethought things I can promise if he's not a first or second round pick he's going to college, and even with the high pick, all the factors would have to be heavily evaluated before I could voice a #.....sad thing is, I'm a CPA so I plan on learning a lot more on historical #s on how those things go before my son leaves high school just on the off chance he develops to be a solid draft pick be it after high school or be it college. I know 1 guy who was a second round pick in 2011 that I know the family, and 2 high school kids that could be top picks during the next 2 drafts, but I'm sure I will continue to read all I can. With each new article posted somewhere and brought to my attention on HSBBW my education continues to grow! 

hshuler posted:

If my son were ever in a position to choose to play in college or professionally, my question would always be "what do you want to do? What's your heart telling you?"   

 

 

I agree, we planned financially for college and that will always be there for my kid, if he is ever fortunate enough to have the chance to play professionally and still has to complete his degree we have his back. My son is not a big kid, so I doubt we have to worry about it...we also plan to relocate to wherever he is going to college if he is playing ball, so we can see every game (and we plan on all road trips too!)

2019LEFTY wrote "Basically after having rethought things I can promise if he's not a first or second round pick he's going to college"

Just a different opinion.  It would be my son's choice, not mine.  I will advise him based on what I know, and I hope he listens to me.  But his choice.

A 1st/2nd round choice would most likely be vs really good scholarship offers, so a good position to be in.

A kid from our high school had the choice between a ranked, high academic and signing for $175K. He was raised by his grandmother. He grew up with nothing. It was all she could do to afford to raise him. He felt he owed her something now and signed. 

He went off to short season as a 6'1" 170 pound seventeen year old (October birthday) and struggled. He returned to short season, felt the pressure and struggled more. He started his third season in short season before being released halfway through the season. He played Indy ball for a couple of years hoping to get another opportunity before giving up.

When my son was a senior in high school we were where we rented space in a facility on a rainy day. The kid worked there. The conversation came around to his decision. He called it a big mistake. He said he could have got three years into a degree at a prestigious college. Instead he was working in a facility and attending classes at a JuCo. Chances are he would have got at least the same amount of signing money after three years of college.

He said the biggest mistake he made by signing was not understanding how physically and emotionally more mature the other players would be. He was a 17yo kid competing against 21 and 22yo men.

I guess I defined the term life changing money as the amount of the proposed bonus and investment lump sum vs the value of potential career earnings and the life experience of college.

I don't know that there is necessarily a right or wrong set of numbers just opinions.

You could come up with a sensible break even point on the two options. Lets say a kid created two options ...

1) Sign out of high school and give it six years to make the majors. If not, head to college for four years. 

2) Play college ball for three years, then sign. Give it six years to make the majors. If not, go back to college for a year and graduate.

But how many kids go in thinking, "What if I don't make it?" He also would be guessing on his signing bonus out of college. Another question is does he make it to the majors faster out of high school and what is the value attached. 

There are unanswerable variables. So the decision should be slanted towards more signing bonus to cover the risk.

I'm thinking in terms of six years ago. Jerseydad's son (I think) was headed for UNC. The Pirates drafted him late, waved a million in front of him and he signed. 

A local kid told the scouts he wouldn't sign for less than 1.5M. He was also headed for UNC. The Red Sox had a bunch of compensatory picks that year. They took him in 3rd round and offered 1.3M. He signed at 11:59pm on August 15th for 1.3. Sometimes it's a matter of how badly you want to get started.

Sometimes I see a guy in the majors was drafted late and signed for nothing out of high school. He may not have been college adademic material. Maybe he just wanted to get started. Maybe he wondered if he would get another opportunity. 

Go44dad posted:

2019LEFTY wrote "Basically after having rethought things I can promise if he's not a first or second round pick he's going to college"

Just a different opinion.  It would be my son's choice, not mine.  I will advise him based on what I know, and I hope he listens to me.  But his choice.

A 1st/2nd round choice would most likely be vs really good scholarship offers, so a good position to be in.

Not a different opinion at all, it would be my son's choice as well. i just don't post often enough to remember to include IMHO to every post ..... thanks for correcting me, my education continues!

Three things:

1) PGStaff is correct that Life Changing Money is relative to an individual's situation.

2) The financial break even on Life Changing Money from draft vs. college can be estimated (and should be estimated).

3) I'll tell you what is Life Changing for me: HE'S OFF MY PAYROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Here's another wrinkle on the concept of how much.

Players earning milb wages can't get credit - apart from a gas card or a card with a very low limit - because they don't earn enough. 

Take a 1m bonus.  Where does it go? After taxes, agents fees, and a good dinner, there's about 600k left. If the kid needs to live away from home in the off season to train (not unusual) in six years (absent parental support of their millionaire son), there's maybe 400k left. 

Now what? The kid still has no credit and perhaps has picked up a wife who wants to start putting down roots. Buy a home? Sure, all cash since there is no credit. (I know several kids who did this.)

Now what? Buy a car and the other accoutrements of a stable life - not free.

For a HS kid who is now 25, the money has been converted into an appreciating asset (house) and the rest is gone. For the college kid, now 27, the same. For a regular graduate, she/he has been building credit since graduation as well as adding actual real work skills. By 27, that kid (if a down payment can be mustered) can actually get a mortgage. The retired HS player (now 25) is a decade behind (4 years of college plus 6 years of work); the college player is 7 years behind).

The hidden trap doors in the analysis boggle the mind.

Amazing how far (not) a one time life changing bonus goes.

joemktg posted:

Three things:

1) PGStaff is correct that Life Changing Money is relative to an individual's situation.

2) The financial break even on Life Changing Money from draft vs. college can be estimated (and should be estimated).

3) I'll tell you what is Life Changing for me: HE'S OFF MY PAYROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

3) While in town I visited some friends I hadn't seen in a couple of years. The Acura and Nissan had been replaced with a BMW and Mercedes. The reason? No more college bills. Both kids had graduated and were on their on.

So, a hidden moral of the story is...If you're thinking you can go pro and go back to school, it's either because you're smart enough to know you can or not smart enough to know you can't.

There is more than one way to earn life changing money.  I tell my son that if he leverages his athletic ability to maximize his academic reach he can make more than the MLB minimum for 30+ years.

^.  With a greater probability of it actually happening.

Personal preference!

I know a few kids who only want to play pro ball and would probably sign for a Big Mac if given the opportunity. They have no interest in going to college so in my opinion they probably shouldn't.  What are the chances of getting a good GPA if you're not interested in school? 

I've also heard of kids who were definitely interested in playing pro ball but only after college so it didn't matter what they offered. In fact, they told interested teams not to draft them. Nothing wrong with that either. 

I have my opinion on what "life-changing money" is but if my son were fortunate enough to have that option, he'd never know my definition of it. That doesn't mean that I wouldn't provide guidance but I would want him to make his own decision. 

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

I can't believe that someone finally mentioned that!

IMO there is no formula for success.  People talk about the odds all the time, but the odds don't mean much to an individual. Because the odds are different for each individual.

I know of a couple kids that actually turned down first round money to attend college.  One is a multimillionaire in the Major Leagues with one year of college left.  Another is out of baseball and currently looking for work, with a college degree.

College doesn't guarantee success, it just helps you get their.  So in most cases it isn't that easy to do the math.  I can assure everyone, there are a lot of college grads out there looking for a job.

I will say that some colleges do increase the odds for success in the real world.  And some rounds increase the chances for success in professional baseball.  There just isn't any guarantees no matter what one does.

One other math problem... If you start out without money, you rack up a pretty big bill for college.  And you still lack money for at least 4 years.  Then hopefully you join the work force at whatever the going rate for first year out of college might be.  Then hopefully you move up the ladder at some point and life is good.  Or you sign for $500,000 with scholarship plan and go play baseball.  After 4 years, probably before, you will have a very good idea of your future in baseball.  So you start getting college credits as soon as possible.  So after 8 years out of high school you graduate from college.  In that time you have earned $500,000 and whatever you were paid to play.  After 8 years I would guess in most cases the player has earned more, but the college kid is further along in a career.  Then again some people catch up in a hurry.

Point is... For most the best and safest path is going to college.  That is what most are doing after HS these days.  But here is something that has to at least be considered.  At all times there are at least 750 players in the Big Leagues.  Some just making the minimum, which is very good, and many making unbelievable money.  For sure somebody will fill every single roster spot.  

Most important:  The system tells you what your chances are, if you are an early round pick, they are telling you you have a great chance.  If they offer a lot of money, they are telling you they think you will be a major league player.  Later in the draft and very small offer... They are telling you they don't think you will make it.  They don't really much care if you sign, so GO TO COLLEGE!  They might like your chances a lot better after college.  If they don't, you will know you took the right path.  Though I really do appreciate those kids with the attitude that they are going to prove everyone wrong.  

TPM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

I can't believe that someone finally mentioned that!

 

My definition definitely has seven figures AFTER taxes. 

TPM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

I can't believe that someone finally mentioned that!

 

That would be about 50 spots in the 2016 draft.

One of the members on this forum shared an article which showed only two players drafted in the top ten rounds didn't sign. When he asked, my guess wasn't even close to that number.

The Phillies paid $3 mil under the slot value for their first round pick which allowed them to pay over slot in later rounds. 

Teams are basically asking kids if they'll take $X and if they don't they simply move on to the next guy. 

hshuler posted:

One of the members on this forum shared an article which showed only two players drafted in the top ten rounds didn't sign. When he asked, my guess wasn't even close to that number.

The Phillies paid $3 mil under the slot value for their first round pick which allowed them to pay over slot in later rounds. 

Teams are basically asking kids if they'll take $X and if they don't they simply move on to the next guy. 

The draft is much different than when mine was drafted,  but you are right, teams get penalized if their top players dont sign their top drafted prospects. I think its much more about who will take what they are offering, and everyone has some idea of what each spot in the first 10 rounds is worth.

When asked by folks of younger players my advice has never changed.  Having leverage is very important. Begin good work habits  early on the field, in the classroom for a better chance to play at a good program and reduce college costs.  Everything else that happens is just icing on the cake.

Help your son to fully understand how difficult milb ball is for 17, 18 year olds (money does make life easier), and if you feel they are mature enough to join the work force, then have that discussion. However, most probably will realize that themselves. 

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

Yes, however . . . 

Had a discussion last week during a home visit.  This particular scout who had more than 10 years in the majors (signed after his senior college season) shared his sons situation.  Son drafted mid draft out of HS.

Obviously, the family has the money to pay for his college, so that's not an issue.  Also, MLB scholarship money factoring in.

We spoke ALOT about going out of HS or college.  He obviously has a unique perspective since he went pro after college and son went after HS.

The "however" I mentioned above is a great point he brought up.  Yes, his son can pursue his dream now and yes, he can go to college later, but what happens in his life between now and that time can dictate the reality of college actually happening.  Girl becomes girlfriend, then wife, then mother of his kids.  Now, 8 years later he's 26 with a kid, maybe a mortgage and out of the game.  Mouths to feed, etc., and college keeps taking a back burner.  Maybe never happens.  Maybe he attends college with his kid(s).

So this particular family made a promise that while the kid is in the minors, he will take classes during the off season (mostly online) and will get a minimum of two years completed while he's still playing.  So in the scenario above, now he may have all those same responsibilities, but is only two years from getting his degree.  Now much more likely that the family can weather two years than four +.

The cost of college is probably the easiest part to solve.  The time and life situation when college re-enters the picture is much more significant.

Also, to the points Shuler and TPM raise above, scout told us that there will be an agreement "in place" before the draft.  His team will not draft a kid if they haven't already come to a mutual expectation on major terms.  As Shuler stated, if that hasn't taken place, the kid will simply be passed.  Likewise, if the number is too large when that kid's number is actually going to be called (i.e., kid gave 2nd round figure and still available in 4th), they will just pass and leave the kid undrafted.  Maybe select him late in the second day to have rights just in case the kid has a change of heart about pro/school.  Of course, then the negotiation would begin, but a team is not going to lose a high round pick or, just as importantly, that slot money.  If a drafted player doesn't sign, the team loses ALL of that slot money and can't use any of it elsewhere in their draft.  Take the example of the Phillies.  Had Moniak not signed, not only would they have lost the player, but they would have lost the entire slot value, including that $3m they used to sign players later in the draft.  The domino effect can be devastating.

Teams simply cannot afford not to sign their slot picks and will have 99% assurance that players selected in those slots will sign.

Nuke83 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

Yes, however . . . 

Had a discussion last week during a home visit.  This particular scout who had more than 10 years in the majors (signed after his senior college season) shared his sons situation.  Son drafted mid draft out of HS.

Obviously, the family has the money to pay for his college, so that's not an issue.  Also, MLB scholarship money factoring in.

We spoke ALOT about going out of HS or college.  He obviously has a unique perspective since he went pro after college and son went after HS.

The "however" I mentioned above is a great point he brought up.  Yes, his son can pursue his dream now and yes, he can go to college later, but what happens in his life between now and that time can dictate the reality of college actually happening.  Girl becomes girlfriend, then wife, then mother of his kids.  Now, 8 years later he's 26 with a kid, maybe a mortgage and out of the game.  Mouths to feed, etc., and college keeps taking a back burner.  Maybe never happens.  Maybe he attends college with his kid(s).

So this particular family made a promise that while the kid is in the minors, he will take classes during the off season (mostly online) and will get a minimum of two years completed while he's still playing.  So in the scenario above, now he may have all those same responsibilities, but is only two years from getting his degree.  Now much more likely that the family can weather two years than four +.

The cost of college is probably the easiest part to solve.  The time and life situation when college re-enters the picture is much more significant.

Also, to the points Shuler and TPM raise above, scout told us that there will be an agreement "in place" before the draft.  His team will not draft a kid if they haven't already come to a mutual expectation on major terms.  As Shuler stated, if that hasn't taken place, the kid will simply be passed.  Likewise, if the number is too large when that kid's number is actually going to be called (i.e., kid gave 2nd round figure and still available in 4th), they will just pass and leave the kid undrafted.  Maybe select him late in the second day to have rights just in case the kid has a change of heart about pro/school.  Of course, then the negotiation would begin, but a team is not going to lose a high round pick or, just as importantly, that slot money.  If a drafted player doesn't sign, the team loses ALL of that slot money and can't use any of it elsewhere in their draft.  Take the example of the Phillies.  Had Moniak not signed, not only would they have lost the player, but they would have lost the entire slot value, including that $3m they used to sign players later in the draft.  The domino effect can be devastating.

Teams simply cannot afford not to sign their slot picks and will have 99% assurance that players selected in those slots will sign.

Take the example of the Phillies. Had Moniak not signed, not only would they have lost the player, but they would have lost the entire slot value, including that $3m they used to sign players later in the draft. The domino effect can be devastating.

^Was told this is how a scout can lose his job. When they tell their boss a kid will sign for $X...if they draft him in the first couple rounds he better sign for that amount. 

No comment. 17 years and $500 million received by our players in our Area Code games as signing bonus.

There are no rules, no predictions of success or failure. The competition is fierce. Each family has their personal goals and dreams.

The young player is the employer of the agent and later he is employee of the College or MLB team.

Bob

"founderArea Code games and Goodwill Series"

Good post Nuke, just a few things as to your post.

It's quite impossible to try to be successful at this job and go to school. A player doesnt stop being a player in the off season. In the beginning he may have to attend instructs in fall, the first season is always the easiest being a shortened season.  

One has to be ready for spring training. That requires off season work.   Actually no one understands spring training until you have been through milb spring training. It's quite different than going to college and playing baseball. In a way, IMO that experience actually helps players, I often wonder if that's why many players out of HS fail at the game. Son used to tell us the college guys were much better prepared than the younger guys.

Also, once you start the academic clock you have to keep it going.  That's all laid out if the player takes the ML scholarship.  And as far as I am aware, online schools are in the business of making money, so I am pretty sure they want you to not take classes for few years, stop, then continue, stop, etc.  It's much easier for a junior to complete his college degree as they work with you to get it done. In sons case he had instructs and then rehab from surgeries for a few off seasons, AZFL, then played winter ball as many do in off season.  When you do have time off you don't want to study!

Perhaps the easiest way to look at it would be to ask... How much money would it take for a person to choose something else, not just baseball, rather than go to college right after high school.

hshuler posted:

TPM posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

I can't believe that someone finally mentioned that!

 

My definition definitely has seven figures AFTER taxes. 

I realize there are kids who have turned down a lot of money. But if kid can sign and clear a million after taxes and turns it down is he smart enough to go to college? A pitcher doesn't have any guarantees he won't blow out his arm in college. A position player doesn't have a guarantee he doesn't tear up his knee (lower odds than a pitchers arm).

A stud high school prospect, who signs for this kind of money is more likely to get to the majors sooner than a college player. It means he's making major league money sooner, eligible for arbitration sooner and eligible for free agency sooner. In the meantime he's banked a million dollars in security. And his million is making money if invested properly.

hshuler posted:

Nuke83 posted:

Dominik85 posted:

Pretty easy, if the draft makes you a millionaire after taxes you can easily pay for college after you retire.

Yes, however . . . 

Had a discussion last week during a home visit.  This particular scout who had more than 10 years in the majors (signed after his senior college season) shared his sons situation.  Son drafted mid draft out of HS.

Obviously, the family has the money to pay for his college, so that's not an issue.  Also, MLB scholarship money factoring in.

We spoke ALOT about going out of HS or college.  He obviously has a unique perspective since he went pro after college and son went after HS.

The "however" I mentioned above is a great point he brought up.  Yes, his son can pursue his dream now and yes, he can go to college later, but what happens in his life between now and that time can dictate the reality of college actually happening.  Girl becomes girlfriend, then wife, then mother of his kids.  Now, 8 years later he's 26 with a kid, maybe a mortgage and out of the game.  Mouths to feed, etc., and college keeps taking a back burner.  Maybe never happens.  Maybe he attends college with his kid(s).

So this particular family made a promise that while the kid is in the minors, he will take classes during the off season (mostly online) and will get a minimum of two years completed while he's still playing.  So in the scenario above, now he may have all those same responsibilities, but is only two years from getting his degree.  Now much more likely that the family can weather two years than four +.

The cost of college is probably the easiest part to solve.  The time and life situation when college re-enters the picture is much more significant.

Also, to the points Shuler and TPM raise above, scout told us that there will be an agreement "in place" before the draft.  His team will not draft a kid if they haven't already come to a mutual expectation on major terms.  As Shuler stated, if that hasn't taken place, the kid will simply be passed.  Likewise, if the number is too large when that kid's number is actually going to be called (i.e., kid gave 2nd round figure and still available in 4th), they will just pass and leave the kid undrafted.  Maybe select him late in the second day to have rights just in case the kid has a change of heart about pro/school.  Of course, then the negotiation would begin, but a team is not going to lose a high round pick or, just as importantly, that slot money.  If a drafted player doesn't sign, the team loses ALL of that slot money and can't use any of it elsewhere in their draft.  Take the example of the Phillies.  Had Moniak not signed, not only would they have lost the player, but they would have lost the entire slot value, including that $3m they used to sign players later in the draft.  The domino effect can be devastating.

Teams simply cannot afford not to sign their slot picks and will have 99% assurance that players selected in those slots will sign.

Take the example of the Phillies. Had Moniak not signed, not only would they have lost the player, but they would have lost the entire slot value, including that $3m they used to sign players later in the draft. The domino effect can be devastating.

^Was told this is how a scout can lose his job. When they tell their boss a kid will sign for $X...if they draft him in the first couple rounds he better sign for that amount. 

To be fair a team gets that slot money and pick back the next year. Still teams want to avoid that but I'm pretty sure the Astros took Bregman in 15 instead of aiken and his damaged ucl in 14.

Aiken was then chosen by the Indians as the 17th overall pick in '15, and signed for $2.5M (Instead of the Astros $5M).  I think Aiken's, Encarnacion and Bautista's agent took the same "How to misread markets" class.

To be fair, the story is not written yet, especially on Aiken.  He did pitch some short A ball last season.

My son and I will never have to worry about the MLB draft. But in theory I say take the money and run. For every guy you read about who 'bet on himself' and won I wonder how many lost?  And people miss the point when talking about if they made it to MLB or not.  The point is getting the money. If you sign for $2M let's say and never play a game in MLB...  you're a winner!  You got $2M!!!  Sure you could have had more if you made it but losing the war with $2M in your pocket is not a bad way to go. And that money only goes as fast as you want it to. Some have said how quickly that bonus money can disappear. Well I don't know what backgrounds you came from or what you consider necessities but I guarantee you as an 18yo I could survive on a minor league salary. Guarantee. In theory if my son got bonus money I would tell him buy a house in cash, not an over the top house but one big enough to raise a family in. Sock the rest of the money away and pay the property taxes from interest earned. When you are done with baseball that money and a paid for house gives you a lot of options. Work a menial job for 20 years while interest builds on your bonus money. In 20 years you quadruple your money. Retire at 40!  Heck depending on the lifestyle you wanted maybe 35!  If you are not from a rich family - TAKE THE MONEY!!

In the many years that I have been here, maybe less than 6 players of websters that I am aware of have gotten life changing money when drafted so IMO all of the discussion probably should refer to later picks.

It really is a no brainer....take the millions and run.

My sons $ amount in HS didnt match where most teams felt he belonged and he wasnt giving up a 100k paid scholarship for 150K  bonus. Would he have made a ML roster and stuck, odds for pitchers probably not. He did make himself almost a half mil 3 years later.  

Everyone has to decide whats best and live with that decision forever.

Great conversation, now I am going to throw a wet blanket on it.

From the 2007 draft thru the 2016 draft, only 4,284 high school seniors have been faced with this decision. To put that in perspective, approximately 130,000 high school seniors are on their school's varsity roster each year...so, the odds that most of us would even face this decision point is remote, at best (less than 1/2 of 1%). Those are the numbers over a 10-year period.

What I use these numbers for is planning for when there is a more (albeit still miniscule) chance of my son being drafted. The number of players drafted out of 4-year colleges in the same timeframe is 7,655 (6,320 from D1 programs, 768 from D2 schools, 385 from NAIA, 171 from D3 schools) and 1,581 from JUCOs. Now, I don't know exactly how many draft eligible players there are in each of these pools, but it is significantly smaller across the board than the HS pool of draft eligible players. Therefore, long money is on taking the college route if your kid's dream is to actually get drafted in the first place, with priority being placed on making the D1 level school, then Juco, then D2, then NAIA, then D3. I don't profess to being an expert on this, but this is what my numbers tell me. Soooo...since my kid is not going to be a physically mature specimen in his senior year of HS (he is bigger than I was at this point in HS, but logic tells me a good college program will put 10-20 pounds on him when he gets there) and won't likely be throwing across the diamond at 92MPH and hitting bombs (well, I hope he have the power by HS season to start stroking a handful of HRs), his best option is for me to push him into a D1 school if we can. I don't like the idea of going the JUCO route, personally, because that to me is just kind of playing a awaiting game and getting on a strong JUCO roster is no guarantee when you see the D1 transfers roll in. There is some seriously strong JUCO ball out there.

^^^^ and the high school/college numbers are now even more daunting when you consider that the draft went from 50 to 40 rounds in 2012.  That eliminated ~300 late round/courtesy/nepotism players.....and possibly a few outliers.

SanDiegoRealist posted:

Great conversation, now I am going to throw a wet blanket on it.

From the 2007 draft thru the 2016 draft, only 4,284 high school seniors have been faced with this decision. To put that in perspective, approximately 130,000 high school seniors are on their school's varsity roster each year...so, the odds that most of us would even face this decision point is remote, at best (less than 1/2 of 1%). Those are the numbers over a 10-year period.

What I use these numbers for is planning for when there is a more (albeit still miniscule) chance of my son being drafted. The number of players drafted out of 4-year colleges in the same timeframe is 7,655 (6,320 from D1 programs, 768 from D2 schools, 385 from NAIA, 171 from D3 schools) and 1,581 from JUCOs. Now, I don't know exactly how many draft eligible players there are in each of these pools, but it is significantly smaller across the board than the HS pool of draft eligible players. Therefore, long money is on taking the college route if your kid's dream is to actually get drafted in the first place, with priority being placed on making the D1 level school, then Juco, then D2, then NAIA, then D3. I don't profess to being an expert on this, but this is what my numbers tell me. Soooo...since my kid is not going to be a physically mature specimen in his senior year of HS (he is bigger than I was at this point in HS, but logic tells me a good college program will put 10-20 pounds on him when he gets there) and won't likely be throwing across the diamond at 92MPH and hitting bombs (well, I hope he have the power by HS season to start stroking a handful of HRs), his best option is for me to push him into a D1 school if we can. I don't like the idea of going the JUCO route, personally, because that to me is just kind of playing a awaiting game and getting on a strong JUCO roster is no guarantee when you see the D1 transfers roll in. There is some seriously strong JUCO ball out there.

 

Just took a look at last year's draft results, as an example I will use the last HS player selected in the draft, Jeremy Ydens. He graded out by PG as a "10" and was ranked #286 overall for class of 2016. He was a UUCLA commit. He was the 1,216th player selected in the draft. Decided to go to UCLA.  There is no slot money at that point, so that decision is easy. next example is Francisco Thomas, this kid was a PG All American and the next lowest HS draft pick in a slot money position (8th round #231 overall pick), committed to SDSU and was #75 ranked HS player for 2016 class per PG, signed with Brewers out of the draft (not sure how much he signed for). He struggled in  Rookie league (batted .110). Would he have faired better in college in the MWC? Was the slot money of $183,000 (if that is what he signed for) worth the chance to start his professional career and face adversity right away, or would his draft prospects have been better after 3 years of college ball? I think we can all agree $183K is "change my life for the next couple of years" money.

Also:

2016 had 207 Division 1 players drafted in slot money picks, 70 high school players, eight D2 players, three D3 players, eight NAIA players, and 18 JUCO players.