Milb cuts

@infielddad posted:

Dominik, 

Just like every MLB team, the A’s have never opened their books for profit and loss evaluations. 
Their ownership is valued in the billions!

IMO, they do not deserve any benefit of the doubt on what they cannot afford especially for the rounding error MILB salaries would be for billionaires.

I don't care about their books but they need to figure out a way to have an mlb payroll. I get owners not wanting to make losses but if you can't make profit while having a decent payroll you don't belong in mlb. Relocate or sell the team if you can't do it.

Also if teams want to do the 50 50 thing and have players subsidize losses that is fair but then let players also participate in profits which means opening books and do 50 50 every year. Players can't agree to 50 50 without owners permanently open books.

Jesus folks get a grip, the owners don't give a damn about the minors during good years...let it go. 

The players are out of their minds, as typical, about what their collective worth is. That bine said the owners need to take the brunt of this one and they will. The y players are still going to need to work for around 70% give or take it seems to me. That is 60% of the prorated portion of the salary. so in simple numbers

10m contract, 82games = 5m, 70% = 3.5m give or take. 

I'm not entirely convinced there won't be a strike this season. Between the virus and the   salary negotiations, by the time they get going it will be the halfway point of the season. They can easily axe the other half and blame it on health concerns. 

I hate the billionaire owner argument. It's almost as if people think they have nothing better to do than lose money just because they have it. These guys don't go into their personal checking accounts to fund the team, there are fixed budgets, partners, contracts, and plenty of other factors that go into the value of franchises which is a business with the purpose of turning a profit and creating value for the owner. 

PA,

if the owners have never opened their books, how do you know anything about the pre and post tax and cash flow aspects to their business? One person who was at a high level disclosed his team broke even on season ticket sales. Advertising, television revenues, concessions etc were all profits.

Having negotiated with a team, I am of the opinion they will takes most every tactic to win and win big and never fully disclose to do so.

No one objects to their making a profit. Isn’t the issue their saying no profit or a loss: “take our word for it.” 

@infielddad posted:

PA,

if the owners have never opened their books...

I don't know enough, nor do I have a dog in the fight. I would prefer to have baseball around than not have it around. Whether that means the owners have to cave or the players have to cave, doesn't really make a difference to me. I just don't like the ~ but they're billionaires ~ argument that I've seen being tossed around. That was not directed at you either, I've seen a good amount of baseball writers taking that angle and I just think it's a lazy argument. The value of the ownership does not mean that they're required to pay more because they're worth more.

If the players have an issue with the payouts they're more than welcome to say no thanks I'll sit this one out. I don't like what Snell did but at least he's honest and says he doesn't think it's worth his time rather than play the blame game. 

It’s not “just” that they are all billionaires, it’s that the games played by the players generate those billionaires revenue consistently valued over $10 billion per year
To me it is the NCAA but on a much larger scale and starting with a draft as opposed to free agency.

Starting with Sandy Koufax and Don Drysdale through Curt Flood and then Messersmith and others the battle for the players has been steeply uphill every inch of the terrain.

For me, owners are like the NCAA but are even more monopolistic. They have no credibility but all the power

None of this is being done without recognition within major league front offices that a growing number of major college programs have improved significantly their ability to evaluate and develop talented players while they're in college. As one indicator of this, look at the movement of coaches increasingly between DI staffs and professional coaching/player development roles.

The recent recommendations to begin the DI season later in the year coincide with both the reduction in draft rounds and eventual elimination of approximately 40 lower minor league teams. The latter developments will boost the talent level in DI rosters and send low-A fans to DI games in the late-Spring and early Summer as an alternative to their former pastime.

@old_school posted:

Jesus folks get a grip, the owners don't give a damn about the minors during good years...let it go. 

The players are out of their minds, as typical, about what their collective worth is. That bine said the owners need to take the brunt of this one and they will. The y players are still going to need to work for around 70% give or take it seems to me. That is 60% of the prorated portion of the salary. so in simple numbers

10m contract, 82games = 5m, 70% = 3.5m give or take. 

If the players are not worth it why do the owners need to tamper with the market so much and have all those salary suppression rules (draft, limited contracts for young players, luxury tax) instead of having a totally free market like soccer has in Europe were 17 year olds sign big free agent contracts and there is no salary cap?

I mean I get the argument the teams sell tickets and everyone is replaceable but why does Paris st. Germain then pay 20 mil a year to 20 yo kylian mbappe instead of replacing him with a random minor league?

The owners have a good reason to have this "socialist" market and not really a free market.

this isn't a contract negotiation, worst comes to worst there will be no baseball this year. Will be interesting to see how many players are willing to take the year off. 

@old_school posted:

this isn't a contract negotiation, worst comes to worst there will be no baseball this year. Will be interesting to see how many players are willing to take the year off. 

Unlike collective bargaining agreements any potential earned money lost this year can’t be recovered in the future. Players have finite careers. 

It won’t get better next year. The word around MLB is Mookie Betts screwed himself not signing the 10 year/300 mill offer from the Sox. He’s likely to get 25 mill per year next year due to lost revenue. At the time not signing was probably a good idea.

We would probably love to get screwed to the tune of 25 mill per year. But if Betts thought 30 mill was a good contract he would have signed it. 

Why aren't the owners just open the books to the public permanently? That way they could prove if they need to save money to make profit?

@Dominik85 posted:

Why aren't the owners just open the books to the public permanently? That way they could prove if they need to save money to make profit?

they don't need to prove anything, people will never be happy with what they see. there is literally no reason why any owner of a business would do that...stupid.

I don't care for how either side is acting with their high class entitlement issues.  And if this is the best they can do......then they all need to go away.

I can spend my summer baseball money on tickets to college or independent leagues if they ever play. At least there you are watching players who want to be on the field.

@Dominik85 posted:

Why aren't the owners just open the books to the public permanently? That way they could prove if they need to save money to make profit?

Baseball franchises are private businesses. It’s no ones damn business what they make. If they want to open the books to the MLBPA as part of negotiations that’s up to them. But the information would leak to the public.,

@RJM posted:

Baseball franchises are private businesses. It’s no ones damn business what they make. If they want to open the books to the MLBPA as part of negotiations that’s up to them. But the information would leak to the public.,

I'm really not an expert on business stuff but isn't it public how much Amazon or Google make? Or is that just an estimation?

Dom;

If they were a Public Corporation, you can buy stock and as stockholder have access to theirfinancial statements. However the MLB and Minor League teams are LLC. Limited Liability Corp. No financials are required except to the partners. LLC can "pass thru" the depreciation and expenses to their Limited Partners.

Bob

@Dominik85 posted:

I'm really not an expert on business stuff but isn't it public how much Amazon or Google make? Or is that just an estimation?

Those are publicly traded companies. They use their profit to increase their stock price. MLB teams are privately funded corporations. They don’t need to show anyone anything if they don’t want to. I wouldn’t in this situation. 

The timing of the crisis for mlb also sucks. Other leagues have played large chunks of their season or are fully in their off season and thus lose less money. For example German bundesliga is playing again with no fans and players lose about 20% of salary the rest of the season after getting full salary before. That is not a huge loss for players. I guess nba players also won't lose more than 30% of their yearly salary.

Mlb players however are asked to lose 60-70% of their salary. That is not just owner greed but also because mlb just loses more money due to the timing but it is a big road block.

For the pre arb players it would probably still be better to play and get some money but some stars are probably saying screw this and just come back next year, I don't want to play for less money with no fans and annoying quarantine restrictions for the family.

If NBA players were asked to play for less than 40% of their yearly salary it would be tough to find an agreement either

Now that MLB and the owners have done their posturing they have a about a week to come to a decision and get started if they want to get in 80 games over the second half of the season.

Otherwise, screw MLB. There will be NHL and NBA playoffs this summer with the NFL on the horizon in the fall. I would rather watch NHL and NBA playoffs than monotonous MLB regular season games. 

If someone like myself can have this view imagine what the casual fan is thinking? 

I cant wait until there are real sports again, my God I have been watching NASCAR just because I don't know how it will finish!!! I don't care at all about hockey and I am walking around humming O Canada...lets get this done and move forward. Holy shit I may even be desperate enough to watch soccer....ok that is to far I already know it will be 0-0 after 90 minutes. 

Do you think some HS draftees of the first two rounds will take under slot deals?

Typically HS guys have a bit more leverage and I guess many HS players will go to college or juco but I could see some HS kids taking 80 cents on the dollar to avoid being pushed back in the 2023 "super draft" (with all the extra good college players who didn't sign out of HS plus the new HS guys).

It will be interesting to see. My son was hitting with a dude yesterday expecting to be drafted somewhere 2-5 rds. For some reason he doesn't want to be drafted and just wants to sign as UFA. One of his thoughts is it lets him somewhat choose where he goes.

@Dominik85 posted:

Do you think some HS draftees of the first two rounds will take under slot deals?

Typically HS guys have a bit more leverage and I guess many HS players will go to college or juco but I could see some HS kids taking 80 cents on the dollar to avoid being pushed back in the 2023 "super draft" (with all the extra good college players who didn't sign out of HS plus the new HS guys).

 

I happen to know a few kids who are in the mix for this year’s draft and I don’t think signability will be much different than any other year.

The high school kids who don’t want to go to school are more likely to sign under slot but that doesn’t mean that they will. 

This is going to be an interesting draft to follow. 

@hshuler posted:

I happen to know a few kids who are in the mix for this year’s draft and I don’t think signability will be much different than any other year.

The high school kids who don’t want to go to school are more likely to sign under slot but that doesn’t mean that they will. 

This is going to be an interesting draft to follow. 

I definitely think a lot won't sign. Was just thinking about the guys on the fringes if they are afraid that the 23 draft will be overloaded due to all the HS guys going to college 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

It will be interesting to see. My son was hitting with a dude yesterday expecting to be drafted somewhere 2-5 rds. For some reason he doesn't want to be drafted and just wants to sign as UFA. One of his thoughts is it lets him somewhat choose where he goes.

I agree with you on that TBP. I know of a grad student who had a year of eligibility left due to an injury. Went to P5 and was team's leading hitter and closer. I imagine he would be one of those players with multiple UFA offers. The signing is UP to 20K not assumed $20,000. Players can weigh the signing bonus as UFA, but they can also weigh each team's need as well as the organization's history.

Some posts on twitter today asked if there will be many UFA's that select the A;s, due to them being the only team to furlough, but not pay active minor leaguers in their organization. The Nationals may have had that in mind (public perception) as they reversed a decision to pay their minor leaguers $300 ($100 less). The Nats players were going to make up the difference--it was unanimous vote in a team Zoom call.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

It will be interesting to see. My son was hitting with a dude yesterday expecting to be drafted somewhere 2-5 rds. For some reason he doesn't want to be drafted and just wants to sign as UFA. One of his thoughts is it lets him somewhat choose where he goes.

That kid is better off leaving his education behind because he clearly isn't too smart to begin with. Pass on slot money to sign for 20k or less for the autonomy of choosing his pro club? C'mon.  

@PABaseball posted:

That kid is better off leaving his education behind because he clearly isn't too smart to begin with. Pass on slot money to sign for 20k or less for the autonomy of choosing his pro club? C'mon.  

Agreed. Also, free agents don't get to negotiate for their college scholarship money. I am pretty sure FA contracts are year to year.  

Has the whole world gone crazy? Go to college, get 4 years in then you can sign a FA contract!

@TPM posted:

Agreed. Also, free agents don't get to negotiate for their college scholarship money. I am pretty sure FA contracts are year to year.  

Has the whole world gone crazy? Go to college, get 4 years in then you can sign a FA contract!

 

 

Agreed. Not sure why a kid would want the shortest possible rope available. 

No secret that the more money the have invested, the longer the rope. 

@hshuler posted:

Agreed. Not sure why a kid would want the shortest possible rope available. 

No secret that the more money the have invested, the longer the rope. 

If the player is a real prospect, he has an advisor aka agent. But sounds like he has gotten no professional advice. Even a scout would not tell that to a prospect!

It would be interesting to know where the "dude" got the notion he was "expecting to be drafted somewhere 2-5 rds"??? Is this his or parents "talking"? Or a PG / PBR ranking? A legit advisor or pro scout? Something missing in this picture! 

Free agency is a 1 yr contract. MLB teams pick who they sign, not the other way around...With no proven, much less Professional,  "track record", he may just end up undrafted and UFA as of June 12 or Aug 2.

There are several sites, including mlb.com, that have him listed as a 2nd and others down to the 5th. I'm sure he has an advisor, but either way he is around a lot of guys who would know the ins and outs of it. I'm not sure if any of them are offering their advice or not. His family has a ton of money, so maybe that plays into it. To me, $300k (or possibly a lot more) guaranteed sounds a lot better than up to $20k guaranteed. 

@hshuler posted:

Agreed. Not sure why a kid would want the shortest possible rope available. 

No secret that the more money the have invested, the longer the rope. 

There is a great deal of truth in that- coupled with those who are sons of former players. Definitely legacy is a big plus in the Draft. But the latest Milb cuts didn't spare sons of Roger Clemens, Raphael Palmiero, and Chris Hoiles.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

There are several sites, including mlb.com, that have him listed as a 2nd and others down to the 5th. I'm sure he has an advisor, but either way he is around a lot of guys who would know the ins and outs of it. I'm not sure if any of them are offering their advice or not. His family has a ton of money, so maybe that plays into it. To me, $300k (or possibly a lot more) guaranteed sounds a lot better than up to $20k guaranteed. 

I understand that some clubs are better than others in terms of the minor league lifestyle, but none of that will offset the 300k dollar difference. Just because your family has money, does not mean you take less to sign with a "better" club. The ins and outs guys around him aren't doing much good for him right now. 

If anything it sounds like he is saying this as an excuse in the event he goes undrafted. 

Does't sound like he is too serious about pro ball or college!  Maybe a "daddy's money" thing...

@PABaseball posted:

I understand that some clubs are better than others in terms of the minor league lifestyle, but none of that will offset the 300k dollar difference. Just because your family has money, does not mean you take less to sign with a "better" club. The ins and outs guys around him aren't doing much good for him right now. 

If anything it sounds like he is saying this as an excuse in the event he goes undrafted. 

Like I said originally, seemed odd to me. I don't know what the guys he's working with are telling him, just heard him saying that. If it were my son I'd advise him to finish his degree unless he was a first or second rounder. 

I also thought about the excuse factor, but based on everything I'm reading it is highly unlikely he doesn't get drafted. He seems like a really good kid to go with his baseball skills. I'll ask about it this weekend when my son has his next workout. I figured I'd bring it up here in case someone knew about a funky loophole that I hadn't read about.

"Trouble with the Curve"

this maybe the answer to your questions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fTHSqutzOcQ

When I evaluate hitters, I listen to the sound of the wood bat.

Bob

With all the scaling down baseball has done how in hell does Tim Tebow still have a roster spot? 

(should be good for at least five pages 😁)

One unhappy camper with Tebow:

https://www.usatoday.com/story...im-tebow/5281707002/

The Tebow thing is going to come back to bite the Mets. I understand why they’ve kept him and moved him around, but now would’ve been the time to cut him loose. 

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

Like I said originally, seemed odd to me. I don't know what the guys he's working with are telling him, just heard him saying that. If it were my son I'd advise him to finish his degree unless he was a first or second rounder. 

 

It will be interesting to see what some of the guys (mainly college I'm thinking about) who thought they'd be one of the five rounds but weren't. Maybe just fell short. Do you roll the dice and say I'm going back to school to improve my standing next year? He may not have a good year, injury, coaching change whatever. No one knows how many rounds there will be next year- 5 again? I have a hunch it will be 10. Going back also means the player is another year older for next year's draft, which comes into play with organizations. Sort of a "bird in the hand"  situation. ...

Drafts too are different in depth from year to year. Last year's draft was the "year of the SS." Not the case this year where the Nick Gonzales and Vandy's Martin may be more apt to play another position (Gonzales 2B), and the top HS shortstop may fall to around #23.