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quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
I would have thought a pitcher drafted in the 1st 3 rounds would get more than $250,000K, but evidently I would have been wrong.


My sons BF signed first 3 rounds (pitcher) and he got 200K, senior sign. Keep in mind that all situations are different, for pitchers especially.
quote:
Originally posted by TPM: My sons BF signed first 3 rounds (pitcher) and he got 200K, senior sign. Keep in mind that all situations are different, for pitchers especially.


I understand that there are all kinds of factors, no matter who it is, what position they play, or in what round they’re drafted. I’m just a little surprised that a kid 6’5”/180 who supposedly throws 93+ at 17 and, and was personally groomed and shopped by a scout, and was represented by Dave Stewart, would command more than what seems to be a pretty paltry sum.

Of course I also know he didn’t have any bargaining chips because his grades wouldn’t even get him into a JUCO, let alone a 4 year school, but with all the hype about putting numbers on a gun sure led me to believe the team that drafted him would have cut loose with a few more pesos.
Stats, this is borrowed from 20dad:

"baseball......a big business disquised as a little boys dream."

Believe this is true. You paint a picture of a player with no, absolutely no, leverage. MLB teams pay what they feel they "have" to pay. That has been true as far back as Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays.
How would you like to be the 1st rounder of the Dodgers and negotiate with a team in bankruptcy and and ownership in turmoil?
Big business.
quote:
Originally posted by Texas Crude:
have the same kid play football too, then have him take all of his school pics wearing a football helmet, and you'll see that number increase 10X.


He was a big name in the area as far as FB went, and played on a team that played against nationally ranked teams in its conference, which they won. He started on both O and D, punted, and returned kicks. I think I heard he was averaging missing less than 5 minutes a game for 2 years.
The main issue from the information provided is "leverage."
He can be a great football player. However, football needs to be a sport he can play past HS as an alternative to baseball to create leverage and more bonus.
It is indicated this player doesn't have the grades for a JC admission. Thus, neither football or baseball have college or JC as an option.
This player signs and plays Milb or does nothing. He has no other options and thus no leverage. MLB scouts/teams know this. Bargaining with MLB can get much more lucrative for the player when there the player has something MLB wants and the players has options MLB cannot control except by paying money.
Perhaps, someone being very creative as an agent might try to use an independent league to create an option and some leverage. While I am not positive, I think the player's age precludes that option.
Since this team would likely get an additional draft slot in 2012 if this player did not sign, they have most all the leverage on whether to sign the player and on what terms.
The player has no options if he wants to play organized baseball beyond HS.
Last edited by infielddad
imfielddad is 100% correct, the player had NO commitment thus he had nothing to negotiate with, he took most likely what they were willing to give and most likely what he was worth to the drafting team. I am not sure why Stewart didn't advise him even to secure a spot at the local JUCO.

Not sure why there is a misunderstanding about the bonus, the first thing we advise people here (for free) is to secure a college commitment as to put yourself in a win, win situation.
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
imfielddad is 100% correct, the player had NO commitment thus he had nothing to negotiate with, he took most likely what they were willing to give and most likely what he was worth to the drafting team. I am not sure why Stewart didn't advise him even to secure a spot at the local JUCO.

Not sure why there is a misunderstanding about the bonus, the first thing we advise people here (for free) is to secure a college commitment as to put yourself in a win, win situation.


Perhaps you didn’t read where I said it was unlikely with his grades he could have even gotten into a JUCO. And even if he did, I seriously doubt he’d have been able to maintain the grades necessary to stay eligible.

The only misunderstanding about the bonus was that I thought a draft pick that high would certainly command more than that. But that’s because I don’t know what draftees get. I know a local player who got $1.7M a few years back in the supplemental draft as one of the last picks, so what this guy got really surprised me.
quote:
Originally posted by 20dad:
when i was that age ,i couldn't even get accepted at reform school.........i would have taken a quater mil to play ball,heck i'd take half that today. i'd even vacum the stadium. Big Grin


I feel the same way about myself. When I had to turn down a contract because of the REAL draft, I went into a serious depression that took years to overcome. But there are so many other things going on with this kid, its hard to explain.
It's all relative, the bigger the program the more $$ you will be offered if you are even drafted. Best chances is a D1 offer. The bigger the program the better. Life is still great if your a bonus baby. Son showed me facebook page of ex team mate who was drafted high, big bonus. If I had what this kid had, I would of swore I died and gone to heaven. I'll take the long bus trips any day for that life.
I played with and against two young men that were both drafted out of high school from the same city a few years back in the 8th round. Each were drafted back-to-back by two organizations in MLB that have A LOT of money. The young man who was drafted a pick sooner was a 5'9" OF who didn't graduate high school and was 19 years old. The young man who was drafted a pick later was a 6'8" RHP who had a scholarship offer to an SEC school.

The young man who was drafted the pick sooner got a $60k signing bonus and was released by the organization after making it to A-ball in 2008. This year will be his third year in independent ball.

The young man who was drafted the pick later got a $1 million signing bonus. He was just recently moved from AA to AAA, is on the 40-man roster and is rated the #1 pitching prospect in the organization. He could be making his big league debut in a few weeks.


The draft is a business. Leverage is an important facet of that business. Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder, from the perspective of both the MLB organization and the prospect in question.
Last edited by J H
TPM - If a new CBA has a hard slot system, this kid probably gets drafted in the umpteenth round instead of the top three. Maybe he's that good and really gets his millions, but I suspect part of his allure was that he had talent, but no leverage. Thus he was drafted high because he could be signed for less (his total value placed him in that slot).

Your comment about talent, leverage & commitment is right on. All those kids with leverage and superior talent who have been passed over to the later rounds in the past, only to be drafted by a team with money to burn would instead be drafted by talent level alone in a slotted system. It would definitely upset the apple cart.

A slotted system will most likely be objected to by large market teams and (probably to a lesser extent) the union. Why? The Red Sox and Yankees like to give $1m+ to 5th plus rounders, because they get 1-2nd round talent for that money. They also don't get a #1-#5 pick, so don't have to go $3-8m on a top pick. They want the freedom of quality (many first to third round talents) and quantity (draft as many as you can in the fourth through umpteeth round) of those tough signs.

Why would the union object to a lesser extent? A lot of players don't like this system and would gladly trade it for an accelerated free agent / arbitration system. Kevin Youkilis was once asked about another player's big signing bonus (might've been Strasburg). His comment was something like, "I've been in the major leagues for 5 years and I won't make that much for another two years. The system just isn't right. This kid hasn't done squat."

The players would trade for more money sooner and they're the union membership. The undrafted future don't get to vote on a new CBA. It'll be interesting watching it unfold...
JMoff- Conversely, a hard slot system could be a step further in a systematic switch to some sort of salary cap. As a union that is looking to maximize for it's members, a salary cap is not good. Bargaining and free agent negotiations are part of what the union strives for, the ability for each player to have their own say and to capitalize.

Then again, smaller market teams/owners probably salivate at the thought of a salary cap.

One thing is for sure...it will sure be interesting watching it unfold, like you said.
J H - Good points and good thread

I simply see caving to slotting in the draft as near the top of the list of things the union would be willing to trade for anything else of value to its membership.

Obviously, I have no insight to either side's strategy for negotiations, so no telling how this will go...
I agree with JMoff. The players/union don't care so much about rookie bonuses and probably would rather have that money go towards current members. I also don't think it is a prelude to a salary cap. The cap is something the union has been vehemently apposed to for years.

I think the NFL players association just give in on hard slot money for newly drafted players? So there is precedent for hard slot money as a give back in negotiations.
Baseball America has a very thought provoking commentary on signing bonuses in 2011, with college juniors being the big losers and HS seniors being the winners. There might be some hyperbole to emphasize the point, from a college perspective.
The importance of leverage is clear, especially the comment to a college junior to take this number now, no negotiation, and if you go back to college for your senior year, expect 10% of this number:



"The 15th of August is no fun for anybody," said North Carolina State recruiting coordinator Tom Holliday. "But if we're going to keep the rule the way it is, it's going to be a D-Day. Kids are going to be reluctant to sign early if they know they can wait until the last day and get paid big money."

"A number of college coaches were left in awe of the record-setting amounts of money being thrown around by professional teams Monday. But several coaches commented that high school players seemed to be the greatest beneficiaries of the spending frenzy after the first round, while pro clubs played hard ball with college juniors.

"I think they really punished the college player yesterday," one college recruiting coordinator said. "The high school players held all the cards yesterday, but the college players after the first round, they asked them, 'Do you want $500,000 now or $50,000 next year as a senior?' The junior in college, I think they got hammered. These pro guys have sold their souls for the high school player. You're seeing Joe Blow getting $775,000 that's going to Arkansas or Georgia Tech, then you've got Jackie Bradley ($1.1 million) or Ricky Oropesa ($550,000) or Mikie Mahtook ($1.15 million) didn't really get paid. Mahtook got paid less than Goeddel, and he went before Goeddel."

"They are assaulting our game, assaulting our talent base by overpaying the high school player, then insulting the college player by underpaying him," said another recruiter. "They're not going to have any good college players to watch if they keep signing all these marginal high school guys for $650,000. They're depleting our supply of quality young prospects in case they become good, rather than letting them come to college and get good."

Here is the link to the entire article:

http://www.baseballamerica.com...us/2011/2612225.html

A couple of aspects to this overall issue, which this article does not include but are well known: less than 5% of those HS players will ever play in Mlb and make good money. Less than 10% will go back to college and get the college degree that could have been assured by the scholarship each left in the rear view mirror.
If MLB is concerned about the bonus money being paid to drafted players, its teams sure didn't show it this year.
It only makes sense that guys signed out of HS would get more than guys signed out of college, even when there is eligibility remaining.

Generally, the MLB team has to put enough on the table to entice the HS kid away from going to college. Once that's no longer a factor, that additional component goes away.

As for guys like Bradley, Mahtook or Oropesa, I don't hear them whining. I don't know what options Mahtook or Oropesa had coming out of HS but I'm pretty sure Bradley would've signed had he been offered $1.1 m in 2008. Instead he was undrafted that year. Seems like he got a pretty good return on his investment of three years at South Carolina. I would guess that goes for Mahtook and Oropesa as well.

It's not quite a free market yet, but it's closer than it would be with a move to hard slotting. I'd rather keep it as is than move to hard slotting. Though I think everyone would benefit from moving up the Aug. 15 date by a month. I mean, if all anyone's going to do is wait until the very last minute, why not just do the same dance earlier on?
quote:
It's not quite a free market yet, but it's closer than it would be with a move to hard slotting. I'd rather keep it as is than move to hard slotting. Though I think everyone would benefit from moving up the Aug. 15 date by a month. I mean, if all anyone's going to do is wait until the very last minute, why not just do the same dance earlier on?


Midlo,

That's pretty much the way I look at it too.

I'm all for the players getting as much as they can. In some cases the draft is the cheapest way for teams to compete.

Some people think slotting is needed to hold down signing bonus'. Obviously a lot of money is spent on players who never turn out to be MLB stars. However, many of those players do become MLB stars. And if you look at the cost of signing a first round pick vs. signing a top free agent, you will see just what a bargain the draft can be.

The Nationals paid a lot of money in the draft for Strasberg, Harper, Rendon, Purke, Meyer, Goodwin, etc., over the last couple years. If you add up how much they spent on signing these players it still doesn't equal the cost of signing "one" top free agent.

Of course there is risk involved, but some very high priced free agents have turned out to be bad investments as well. Plus, one high priced free agent is still just one player.

If you were the Nats or another club trying to upgrade your system, would you rather spend a fortune on "one" top free agent, or the same amount on 8-10 top draft picks.

Its different for clubs where money is no issue, they can sign multiple top free agents (Yankees/Red Sox). But for most teams the draft is extremely important and can be a big bargain just the way things are.

I can't see any good reason for hard slotting. I do believe the Aug deadline was a big mistake, even though it has benefitted some players. What if they simply put a one month (after the draft) signing deadline on the top 3 rounds? That might take care of some of the problem. At least, it might lessen the waiting game of seeing what the top picks are signing for.

Anyway, I'm sure MLB has a lot of people trying to figure out solutions.
quote:
Originally posted by PGStaff:
If you were the Nats or another club trying to upgrade your system, would you rather spend a fortune on "one" top free agent, or the same amount on 8-10 top draft picks.
Depends, sometimes one dude can be a difference maker. But, it's usually short term... win 15-20 more games this season or average 25 more games over the next 5 seasons. Definitely more buildable leverage (over time) with 8-10 tops picks.

I don't like a hard slot system either, but it maybe the only way to stop market manipulation. Either way, it sure is fun to watch these guys sign! Last month a 19 year old 1st Rounder went to buy a 50K new truck and they laughed him out of the office until they googled his name. LOL

GED10DaD
Last edited by GunEmDown10
Since 1989, the average salary of a Major League player has increased every year except two years (1995, the year of the strike, was one of them). Salaries nearly doubled from 1990-1992, from an average of $578,930 to $1,084,408. In 2011, the average MLB salary is $3,305,393. The Pirates set a record this year on draft spending...$17 million. That is less than the annual salary of 19 different Major Leaguers, some of whom most certainly do not perform up to the level at which they are paid in relativity to market demand (Ie: Vernon Wells makes $26,642,857, Todd Helton makes $20,275,000 and Barry Zito makes $18,500,000). In terms of an investment, as a team, which has potential to be more beneficial?

Picture it this way...if you own a business that has an extra $100,000 to spend, let's say you could spend it on 10 different machines that will help you produce more of your product. These machines are unproven because they are new to the industry, but have the potential to be successful. Your competitor has an extra $600,000 to spend, and decides to invest the same $100,000 into the new product and the remaining $500,000 into an already established product. That way they can gamble for the future and still have current success.

I don't know what the answer to market manipulation is. As a democratic society that breeds it's economics on a free market system I don't know how successful a salary cap would be. The combination of the league's enormous growth and the strength of the MLBPA could wreak havoc on that sort of proposal. But at the same time, I don't think the answer is within the draft either. Baseball is a business, and negotiations are part of an investment.
Last edited by J H
quote:
The Nationals paid a lot of money in the draft for Strasberg, Harper, Rendon, Purke, Meyer, Goodwin, etc., over the last couple years. If you add up how much they spent on signing these players it still doesn't equal the cost of signing "one" top free agent.


Admit it, you were thinking of Jason Werth when you wrote that! Smile
quote:
Originally posted by TPM:
quote:
Originally posted by Stats4Gnats:
I would have thought a pitcher drafted in the 1st 3 rounds would get more than $250,000K, but evidently I would have been wrong.


My sons BF signed first 3 rounds (pitcher) and he got 200K, senior sign. Keep in mind that all situations are different, for pitchers especially.


Ummmm what does BF stand for?
I hope my son has a chance to go in the top 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. He has the physical attributes. He's 14 yrs old in 8th grade. He's a lefty pitcher. 6'5" 250lbs. He throws in the low 80's right now. Since he wears a size 16 shoe, I'm estimating he'll be around 6'8" when he graduates high school.
He's also a gifted football player. He is expected to start varsity football as a freshmen on the OL/DL. He is very athletic and is working on his 2nd degree Black Belt in Tang So Do Karate.
Do you think he has a shot to get drafted in the top 3 rounds?
Last edited by animal03
quote:
Originally posted by animal03:
I hope my son has a chance to go in the top 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. He has the physical attributes. He's 14 yrs old in 8th grade. He's a lefty pitcher. 6'5" 250lbs. He throws in the low 80's right now. Since he wears a size 16 shoe, I'm estimating he'll be around 6'8" when he graduates high school.
He's also a gifted football player. He is expected to start varsity football as a freshmen on the OL/DL. He is very athletic and is working on his 2nd degree Black Belt in Tang So Do Karate.
Do you think he has a shot to get drafted in the top 3 rounds?


Slow down chief - your son isn't even in high school yet so to try and make any kind of prediction towards the MLB draft. Also, we have never seen him play in order to evaluate his abilities. While your son seems like he's a beast in terms of size it's way too early to start trying to project where he would go in the draft. So many things could change or even go wrong from now to then.

My best advice is to slow down and enjoy the ride that the high school years will be. Let him be young and be a kid because if he does start drawing interest he will be forced to grow up quick.
quote:
Originally posted by animal03:
I hope my son has a chance to go in the top 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. He has the physical attributes. He's 14 yrs old in 8th grade. He's a lefty pitcher. 6'5" 250lbs. He throws in the low 80's right now. Since he wears a size 16 shoe, I'm estimating he'll be around 6'8" when he graduates high school.
He's also a gifted football player. He is expected to start varsity football as a freshmen on the OL/DL. He is very athletic and is working on his 2nd degree Black Belt in Tang So Do Karate.
Do you think he has a shot to get drafted in the top 3 rounds?


I agree with coach2709. . . sounds to me like you're looking way too far ahead.

And it sounds like your son is a pitcher. Like any other positions, there's a lot more to it than size and velocity. At this stage, there's no way to know that he'd even be drafted, let alone be drafted within the first 3 rounds. There is so much involved. So, relax. . .put just one foot in front of the other. Take it day by day, game by game. . . work on the NOW, tomorrow will take care of itself. If nothing more than for baseball, if you take care of today, tomorrow will take care of itself. REALY!
quote:
Originally posted by animal03:
I hope my son has a chance to go in the top 3 rounds of the 2016 draft. He has the physical attributes. He's 14 yrs old in 8th grade. He's a lefty pitcher. 6'5" 250lbs. He throws in the low 80's right now. Since he wears a size 16 shoe, I'm estimating he'll be around 6'8" when he graduates high school.
He's also a gifted football player. He is expected to start varsity football as a freshmen on the OL/DL. He is very athletic and is working on his 2nd degree Black Belt in Tang So Do Karate.
Do you think he has a shot to get drafted in the top 3 rounds?


Sounds like he was born in Central America and has a doctored birth certificate.

If this is a joke then

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