NCAA Loses their minds

anotherparent posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

CTbballDad posted:

anotherparent posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

I think what they are concerned about is players becoming infected while traveling and bringing the virus back to the community/school. 

CTbballDad posted:

anotherparent posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

It's dangerous to the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions. Period. Quit being played by the media.

There are a lot of elderly, and a lot of people with pre-existing conditions.  52 million people are over age 65.  16 million people have COPD.  30 million people have diabetes.  28 million people have heart disease.  So what do you suggest? 

Since this is a baseball related site, don’t you think cancelling sports and sending students home, increases risk the to kids and those more vulnerable?

I have 3 kids coming home, they’re young adults and won’t be quarantined in our home, nor does anyone recommend they should be. They’ll go to the gym, Starbucks, hang with their friends, etc.  I would argue the gym and coffee shops at school are cleaner and more controllable than within our communities. I’ve seen and confronted enough aholes not wash their hands, after relieving themselves, to know this to be true

My dad treats us to Easter brunch every year.  We weren’t going this year, as son was to have an away series.  Once he heard the kids would be home, he asked if we could now go to brunch.

I think cancelling the college season had to be done, once the NBA made that move.  But the 2 sports are so very different.  NBA players are in constant contact during a game, they’re in an enclosed arena and said they wouldn’t play without fans.  Baseball is a spread out sport, outdoors and could have gone without fans.

I did read someone on this site suggest a player could be ill, touch the ball and spread it out.  Sorry, but that’s pure paranoia. 

Dorms and cafeterias are breeding grounds for infections and viruses. My youngest left for college eight years ago. I haven’t been sick since then. There aren’t kids in the house bringing home viruses from school every day.

With athletes you have teams of kids getting on busses and/or planes (confined areas) multiple times per week, traveling to other areas and returning.

I realize that the reason that I am obsessively thinking (and posting) about this is because I am so heartsick that my son's (and everyone else's) season was cancelled.  I'm trying to make sense of all these issues, when you think about them enough, they do make sense.

Let's say they kept the baseball team around to practice, live in dorms or apartments, etc.  Let's say one got sick, and had to quarantine for 14 days (and it would be more than one - they are in dugouts and locker rooms and showers, breathing the same air, not to mention living together).  Who takes care of them?  Who brings them food?  Who takes them to the hospital if need be?  That's a heck of a lot of support that is required, it would get complicated, fast.  You could say that this is true at all times, students are always getting sick - but this is a very highly infectious disease, with severe outcomes (hospitalization) for 20% of people infected.  What about the coaches, trainers, support staff?  They take it home, spread it to people, sooner or later someone needs hospitalization.  That is what they are urgently trying to slow down.

I agree about just playing/practicing on a field in the open air - I'm hopeful that when my son and his friends are home, they'll be able to do that informally, on the fields that will otherwise be empty.

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

jacjacatk posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

 

Here is a graph of cases.  You can enlarge it for specific lacalities.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/op...40299423467b48e9ecf6

The total confirmed cases went up 5K in the last hour.

keewart posted:

jacjacatk posted:

SomeBaseballDad posted:

Those numbers mean nothing at this point because there's no way to know how many people have actually had it. By far the majority of people who have become ill due to covid have recovered, and every time that happens something very important happens. They build up immunity to it. I've read one of the outcomes to this is that it will become a seasonal problem like the flu or the common cold. Our bodies just need time to build up some immunity. 

Look, I'm not saying there's not reason for concern, but fighting in the streets over toilet paper...... damn. 

 

The number dead now does actually let you backwards extrapolate how many are infected and, potentially, undiagnosed. 

There have been 48 deaths in the US (as of yesterday). If the fatality rate is 0.9% (so it's way less bad than it seems so far because we're missing lots of infected with lack of testing) and the average time to death from infection is 17 days, and the doubling time of infected is 2.4 days, that implies there are actually 800k cases in the US. At which point, stopping the spread is basically hopeless.

The slower it doubles, and the more deadly it actually is, the fewer undiagnosed cases there are waiting in the wings. "Best" case scenario is that there are more like 9000 real cases right now, but realistically it's probably at least 100k.

 

Here is a graph of cases.  You can enlarge it for specific lacalities.

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/op...40299423467b48e9ecf6

 

 

FWIW, the worrisome part of that graphic should be the yellow-dot curve in the lower right that represents cases outside of China and the fact that that curve is still exponential.

The green-dot one that represents China is what happens when you actually lock down a quarantine.  Well, assuming you can have faith in the accuracy of the numbers coming out of China.  If they're hiding stuff at this point, all bets are off.

New cases today in South Florida include:

(2) 20 year old females

19 year old female

22 year old female

19 year old male

Most new cases in our state are travel related. 25 more than yesterday.

Makes sense that there probably are many, many more cases of under 30, and probably will see an increase  in all ages since schools are out.   

Hey!!!  Been out hiking a couple legs of the AT last three weeks.  Missed you guys. 

Anything new going on?

Just a bunch of b****ing cause everbody's out of toilet paper!

baseballmom posted:

Just a bunch of b****ing cause everbody's out of toilet paper!

It started with hoarding cans of beans.

Can someone tell me why people are hoarding TP?   Do people actually spend that much time on the toilet? 

If you are quarantined or isolated in your house for 2+ weeks, that's the one thing people seem not to want to run out of.  Anything but that!  Although, if people can bring you groceries, I'm not sure why they couldn't also bring you TP. 

When I was very young, in the early 70s, I remember a run on TP.  I don't remember why, it just sticks in my mind from the evening news.  Wait:  now we have google!  Apparently it was in 1973, it was fake news before the internet.  Obviously it burrowed into people's psyches.

I bought some extra TP because the store was out of tissues and it is allergy season here!  Big time!

The shelves in our grocery stores today looked like the description from my friend that was living in Kyrgyzstan in the early '90s.  

The TP thing is just what happens when a few people become idiots. At the point the idiots start hoarding, then even those of us who think it's ridiculous have no choice but to join in the fray. 

I'm also shaking my head at some of the irresponsible talk on here of this being some sort of Chinese lab experiment gone wrong. There is ZERO evidence to suggest this, unless you're listening to idiotic Infowars BS...or Kevin McCarthy who floated the idea that it was a North Korean plot. Interestingly, when pressed as to where he heard this he said it came from somebody in a restaurant he was in. Jesus.

I wish I was more of an idiot, running perilously low on TP and now we have all 3 kids home from college.  Unfortunately, I don't have a news paper delivered either!

I'd love to see the sales numbers for the past 2 weeks of those makeshift bidets that you attach to your toilet. Talk about timing!

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Dominik85 posted:

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

 

 

 

6-8 weeks is highly optimistic. Actually, shutting things down IS about dragging it out. Dragging it out, so that cases don't all peak in a short period of time is what will keep the death rate low. If you allow it to spread quickly, it will spike and end quicker, but the numbers will peak quickly to levels that we can't handle. "Social distancing" is a way to spread those numbers out and keep the peak low. It won't lessen the eventual number of cases, but will spread them out over a longer period of time.

Dominik85 posted:

You can complain about this as much as you want but the shutdown is necessary and all experts agree about this because health care system isn't prepared to handle millions of cases. 

My doctor believes that it will take just 6-8 weeks of shutdown (sports, school, free time, economy) and then we can go back to normal.

This will cause a recession but better than dragging this out longer causing more harm.

I believe there will be an mlb season but for anything before mid to late june it is just too early. I think in july baseball will be played again.

 

 

 

My doctor says, "Mylanta."

And Roothog, you jerk, now I can't NOT think about it.

I go by the grocery store every two or three days since I eat a lot of fresh fruits and vegetables. The shelves looked more depleted then normal. Some people are panic shopping. It’s also the day after weekend grocery shopping.

There isn’t a reason for a food supply shortage. When I crossed paths with a manager I asked if the delivery trucks are schedule for the next couple of days. Store restock after shelves after weekends.

His only comment was”I can’t speak for the corporation.” Under the current circumstances no response is a negative response. Why not say, “Sorry we’re out of some items. The trucks will be here tomorrow?”

I called corporate to find out if it’s time to panic buy due to the panic buying. I was told there is absolutely no food shortage. Stores are receiving regular deliveries.

Yesterday Starbucks banned seated dining and drinking. Today Dunkin followed suit. 

I saw a humorous picture from a grocery store in Boston. The soup shelve was empty except for an almost full inventory of Manhattan clam chowder. We would rather starve to death then eat that crap. Who puts clams in tomato soup? In the immortal words of Patrick Henry, “Give me New England clam chowdah or give me death!”

DesertDuck posted:

Plenty of sports still on ESPN...

https://twitter.com/SupremeDre...528820799553536?s=20

roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

TPM posted:

roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

You're preaching to the choir. I learned the magic of wipes when prepping for my colonoscopy.🙂 Unfortunately, the stores are also out of wipes...and I've got a six month old in the house.

roothog66 posted:

TPM posted:

roothog66 posted:

I had to order TP off of Amazon. The only thing available was Angel Sot. Freaking Angel Soft! I'd rather use any of the above options than Angel Soft, a paper that ALWAYS requires washing your middle finger afterward...think it through, you'll get it.

Why are men so against wipes?  Then there won't be a TP shortage!

You're preaching to the choir. I learned the magic of wipes when prepping for my colonoscopy.🙂 Unfortunately, the stores are also out of wipes...and I've got a six month old in the house.

Well, while taking a shortcut to the pharmacy, I came upon baby wipes! No one thought to check that isle? I didn't load up though, not fair to the babies!

Six month old in the house and no wipes, you really are in trouble!

Walgreens online had wipes earlier today...

baseballmom posted:

Walgreens online had wipes earlier today...

Pretty sad that here we are, ordering wipes and toilet paper online!

Someone on Amazon is selling packages of Cherrios that should go for $24 for $75 and packages that should be $32 for $100. I took a screenshot and emailed it to Amazon. The fastest way to get an issue resolved on Amazon is jeff@amazon.com

It's  quite unfortunate that some people go out to bars, concerts and so on sometimes even feeling like heroes saying stuff like "this is America", "freedom" and other bullshit.

Those are the people that will probably cause a total lockdown in 2 weeks were you can't leave home at all like in Spain or Italy. If people act reasonably and only go out on totally necessary stuff a lockdown is probably not even needed but the idiots who dont want to be limited and say it's m life I do what I want are in the end hurting the reasonable ones by forcing the government to a lockdown. 

Agreed. The sky is falling. Nobody should be allowed outside for at least a year. Hopefully a lockdown will be instituted so all these people who are enjoying life will put that non sense to an end. 

Well there is also something between stopping life completely and acting like an idiot. I doubt it will take a year, if people act sensibly normal life could continue in 2-3 months.

A total lockdown could come, some countries already did it. But if people act sensibly it could be avoided. This disease won't cause the world to end and I think by end of the year people can live a normal life again (for example if in a next 2 months a vaccine comes out) but it doesn't go away by pretending it is not there.

I live in Las Vegas. Last night the Governor of NV instituted a state wide lock down for all non essential services. That includes all casinos being closed. Guests are being sent home after last night. He also closed all gaming at popular locations like at gas stations, grocery stores and local pubs. You know it is bad when Nevada shuts down ALL GAMING!

I know, that sounds crazy. But some people just don't get it and are endangering the rest of the population. There where tons of folks still sitting at the slot machines and at the tables until the adult in the room said to leave. They tell us that smoking will kill you too, but walk into any casino and you'll find plenty that don't listen.

I'm not sure how this will all play out long term but I would rather be cautious than dead. I can't stand what this is doing to the economy and more importantly to peoples lives.  However, the sooner we stay in place, the sooner we can stop the spreed of this virus.

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

20% of people who get it need hospitalization.  It's all about the number of hospital beds and ventilators (and doctors and nurses).

If fewer people get it now, fewer people will be in hospitals now.

Yes, there will be subsequent waves, of the people who didn't get it the first time.  But, there will be fewer cases at any one time, both now and later.

That's what FLATTEN THE CURVE means.  Try to keep the number of infections at any one time as low as possible. 

Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

anotherparent posted:

20% of people who get it need hospitalization.  It's all about the number of hospital beds and ventilators (and doctors and nurses).

If fewer people get it now, fewer people will be in hospitals now.

Yes, there will be subsequent waves, of the people who didn't get it the first time.  But, there will be fewer cases at any one time, both now and later.

That's what FLATTEN THE CURVE means.  Try to keep the number of infections at any one time as low as possible. 

Sorry. We were basically posting the same argument at the same time.

roothog66 posted:

Teaching Elder posted:

Actually, staying in place could only prolong how long we have to deal with the virus and spawn a rehash at a later date as not enough people will have been infested to build immunity.   Italy may ultimately come out of this better off than many of the rest of the nations.

Prolonging "how long we have to deal with it" is actually the goal. By spreading it out over a longer period of time, you have about the same number of eventual infections, but the goal is to ensure that at any time, the number of currently infected people is kept below the capacity of our medical system. So, Italy, which was overrun and above peak capacity, will probably deal with it for a shorter period of time, but, because peak numbers exceeded capacity, the death rate there will be much higher than here. 

Italy is a tough comparison. It’s one of the countries with a larger percentage of older, more vulnerable people. Stats can be misused. Maybe one in a thousand high school players in Mike Trout’s graduating class had a shot at pro ball. But Mike Tout’s odds weren’t 1/1000.