MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
Go44dad posted:
MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
You forgot WHO
adbono posted:Go44dad posted:
MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
You forgot WHO
Our 2020 sons just have to step up/man up. What else can you do? Did it get a little harder - you bet - what can they do - outwork others. No different than before just more guys to beat out. We've all been impacted in many ways known and unknown.
The only winners here are P5 schools who were already fully funded and can take on the additional costs to keep their corona seniors. They will likely have lights out pitching staffs and enough guys on the roster that the bottom half could have probably found a way into the top 50 RPI.
The best seniors we saw from the first 1/4 of the season will be back. I'm talking weekend starters, closers, everyday 1-9 guys. Or guys who really want to go to grad school (reasonable). The 20 AB guy who started on Sundays - gone. The middle reliever who had 7 innings through 16 games - gone.
I keep seeing celebration, but a lot of seniors who think they are coming back for one last ride will be told there's no money, that they're going to give the younger guy a chance, or that with the seniors coming back and basically no draft - there is a roster jam.
I know in our case (P5) probably 4 (of 9) exhausted eligibility guys would be welcome back. Do all four come back? Probably not, one is already 24. Maybe 2 sign for 20k and don't go to grad school. But the problem won't be finding a way to make a few extra guys on the roster work, it will be the fact that there is basically no draft this year and instead of 35 guys working for 22ish slots of field time there will be 48. There will be excessive amounts of transferring, PG years, Juco dropdowns, etc. College coaches meticulously recruit and budget down to the penny based on the notion that the draft is 40 rounds. MLB screwed the NCAA - no way around it. A lot of kids will not be able to go to college where they wanted because of the decision the MLB made.
I am all for beating up on MLB when it is logical but they didn't and shouldn't make any draft rules based on the college seasons or eligibility rules. They should make draft rules on what is best for their organizations and nothing else. Many times those 2 interest would be matching but this isn't one of them.
PABaseball posted:The only winners here are P5 schools who were already fully funded and can take on the additional costs to keep their corona seniors. They will likely have lights out pitching staffs and enough guys on the roster that the bottom half could have probably found a way into the top 50 RPI.
I think on the surface this looks correct, but not in functionality. First off P5 is a myth in baseball just look at what UCF did to Auburn (#8at the time), handled them in a sweep, or what Georgia Southern did to UGA (#3 at the time), handled them in a sweep. And I mean handled, neither of those SEC teams was competitive with the teams that swept them. The P5 only applies in so much as ESPN makes sure that the schools with bigger followings are ranked at the top. (BTW at least 2 of the 5 P5 conferences did not favor this). So the talent discrepancy is not there, only the perception.
What are the the issues that many P5s have with this, because it is not finances? First, they typically have few senior players, so few coming back. But even if all seniors come back, that is not the issue the P5 conferences have. There are two big issues for them in this.
#1) Over commitments - the 2020s have already signed NLIs, and the 2019s are all effectively Freshman next year. This means schools that over-commit in baseball( most of the SEC, ACC, PAC, B10, and B12) will have close to 40 freshman coming in next year per their listed PG commitments. And what about the 2021s that they already have verbals from. Sorry guys, no room at the inn, because those recruits won't likely be allowed to sign NLIs above there allotment of 11.7 in the fall signing period.
Non-P5 achools won't face this as much as they tend to not over-commit as much.
Theoretically, all of their sophomore classes and junior classes (except for those draftable in the first 5 rounds, which ain't a lot - even at Vandy) will be back. Heck, we have 1 pitcher on my son's team that got a med redshirt his freshman year, a true redshirt will he rehabbed TJ surgery last year and now will be in his Freshman year of eligibilty in his 4th year of college next year.
2.) Graduate transfers, non-scholy (walk-on transfers), and JUCO transfers. P5s scholys are guaranteed 4 years, other D1 schools don't universally follow these rules. That's right P5 are likely to have such a bottleneck (see point number 1) that they won't be able to go after some key JUCO transfers or grad transfers or walk-ons. But a number of graduating seniors and redshirt-seniors just got a year of eligibility back. They and the walk-ons (and every team has walk-ons, JUCO transfers that contribute significantly) will be able to transfer as they please, but P5s are unlikely to be able to scoop up a key player here and there as they have done in the past.
This is going to be a big lesson to some players, parents, coaches, and athletic departments: Be careful what you wish for, because you might get it.
Gunner Mack Jr. posted:adbono posted:Go44dad posted:
MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
You forgot WHO
Our 2020 sons just have to step up/man up. What else can you do? Did it get a little harder - you bet - what can they do - outwork others. No different than before just more guys to beat out. We've all been impacted in many ways known and unknown.
Dirty little unspoken secret in the rah rah world of sports...It’s about natural talent and the gift of genetics.
Tough to huddle up the little leaguers before practice and tell them they are small, slow and uncoordinated and you got stuck with them because you were late for the draft and the other dads got all the athletes.
Of course hard work is important. It’s just assumed to be the norm.
Ain’t no hill for a stepper.
PABaseball posted:The only winners here are P5 schools who were already fully funded and can take on the additional costs to keep their corona seniors. They will likely have lights out pitching staffs and enough guys on the roster that the bottom half could have probably found a way into the top 50 RPI.
The best seniors we saw from the first 1/4 of the season will be back. I'm talking weekend starters, closers, everyday 1-9 guys. Or guys who really want to go to grad school (reasonable). The 20 AB guy who started on Sundays - gone. The middle reliever who had 7 innings through 16 games - gone.
I keep seeing celebration, but a lot of seniors who think they are coming back for one last ride will be told there's no money, that they're going to give the younger guy a chance, or that with the seniors coming back and basically no draft - there is a roster jam.
I know in our case (P5) probably 4 (of 9) exhausted eligibility guys would be welcome back. Do all four come back? Probably not, one is already 24. Maybe 2 sign for 20k and don't go to grad school. But the problem won't be finding a way to make a few extra guys on the roster work, it will be the fact that there is basically no draft this year and instead of 35 guys working for 22ish slots of field time there will be 48. There will be excessive amounts of transferring, PG years, Juco dropdowns, etc. College coaches meticulously recruit and budget down to the penny based on the notion that the draft is 40 rounds. MLB screwed the NCAA - no way around it. A lot of kids will not be able to go to college where they wanted because of the decision the MLB made.
Exactly what I meant when I said this is gonna be a disaster. Everybody is playing a big hand of poker, and no matter who you are you just got dealt a card that makes your odds of winning a whole lot worse.
old_school posted:I am all for beating up on MLB when it is logical but they didn't and shouldn't make any draft rules based on the college seasons or eligibility rules. They should make draft rules on what is best for their organizations and nothing else. Many times those 2 interest would be matching but this isn't one of them.
Not blaming MLB for shortening the draft, I'll be the first to agree that 40 is way too long. When non baseball players start getting drafted just for fun that's when you know it's a waste of time. But we also know the number isn't 5.
A change this drastic should not have gone into effect until a few years down the line. In other words if they said we're going with 20 rounds in 2020, 10 rounds in 2021, and 5 in 2022 I wouldn't have anything negative to say. But kids turned down money last year, kids turned down money the year before, kids turned down life changing money out of high school because they knew a 40 round draft would be there the next year. And now 3 months before the draft, not only did they cut it down by 35 rounds, they also cut the slot rounds in half which is arguably the bigger issue. If you're not a top 200 prospect you just pretty much became irrelevant in the eyes of MLB scouts.
Either way, they did screw college programs. Of course it's not their problem, but the entire landscape of college baseball changed because of this decision. So yes they did screw the NCAA, whether that is their concern or not.
Pedaldad posted:PABaseball posted:The only winners here are P5 schools who were already fully funded and can take on the additional costs to keep their corona seniors. They will likely have lights out pitching staffs and enough guys on the roster that the bottom half could have probably found a way into the top 50 RPI.
I think on the surface this looks correct, but not in functionality. First off P5 is a myth in baseball just look at what UCF did to Auburn (#8at the time), handled them in a sweep, or what Georgia Southern did to UGA (#3 at the time), handled them in a sweep. And I mean handled, neither of those SEC teams was competitive with the teams that swept them. The P5 only applies in so much as ESPN makes sure that the schools with bigger followings are ranked at the top. (BTW at least 2 of the 5 P5 conferences did not favor this). So the talent discrepancy is not there, only the perception.
I don't disagree with you. But P5 still applies in baseball as it relates to funding, resources, and facilities, not necessarily talent. Outside of the P5 schools there aren't a ton of fully funded programs. So when I say that the only winners who are P5 who were fully funded and can afford corona seniors - it is because only a select handful of schools (all P5) will be able to do this.
P5 ≠ talent, P5 = more $. There are plenty of mid majors with more talent than P5s
And yes Georgia Southern is a pretty good mid major program plenty capable of beating quality teams. But if you put them in the SEC I highly doubt they finish higher than Georgia in the standings. Doesn't mean Georgia Southern is bad, but also doesn't mean they are better than Georgia. Georgia Southern would have lost a series to an opponent they should have beat at some point this season too. Works both ways.
Gunner Mack Jr. posted:adbono posted:Go44dad posted:
MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
You forgot WHO
Our 2020 sons just have to step up/man up. What else can you do? Did it get a little harder - you bet - what can they do - outwork others. No different than before just more guys to beat out. We've all been impacted in many ways known and unknown.
If your son is a 2020 HS senior and is committed to a D1 program I would advise you to take a hard look at the current roster. My son is a JuCo Sophomore and I spent this morning going thru that exercise. Here is what the landscape will look like at the school he is committed to - assuming that all 10 seniors return (which is realistic in this case) and all 18 2020 recruits report to campus in the fall: 53 total players (unmanageable). 32 pitchers (competing for 22 roster spots) 21 pos plrs (competing for 13 roster spots) 10 corner IF (competing for 4 roster spots) That is insanity and you can bet your a$$ that I’m looking for other options. ANY freshman waliking into a situation like that thinking they will be on the 35 man roster is out of touch with reality. EVERY 2020!HS senior that is going into a situation like that should be on the phone right now looking for a JuCo where they can play for the next 2 years while this widespread roster logjam thins itself out.
If your son is a 2020 HS senior and is committed to a D1 program I would advise you to take a hard look at the current roster. My son is a JuCo Sophomore and I spent this morning going thru that exercise. Here is what the landscape will look like at the school he is committed to - assuming that all 10 seniors return (which is realistic in this case) and all 18 2020 recruits report to campus in the fall: 53 total players (unmanageable). 32 pitchers (competing for 22 roster spots) 21 pos plrs (competing for 13 roster spots) 10 corner IF (competing for 4 roster spots) That is insanity and you can bet your a$$ that I’m looking for other options. ANY freshman waliking into a situation like that thinking they will be on the 35 man roster is out of touch with reality. EVERY 2020!HS senior that is going into a situation like that should be on the phone right now looking for a JuCo where they can play for the next 2 years while this widespread roster logjam thins itself out.
Sent you a PM as this is not our situation. I do hear what you are saying and realize many unforeseeable things will occur. The thing I don't get is why every senior will return to the school to which your son committed. They weren't drafted as juniors, yeah they got robbed of their senior year but won't a bunch of seniors (in consultation with parents) realize that it might be time to start in the real world vs paying for another year of school. Of course, the real world job market is a freaking mess right now too. I am sure every poster here knows multiple people who have lost their jobs. Hopefully it will be just for a month or two though.
"Play in School" on Twitter just posted something I've been thinking awhile now regarding the extra year of eligibility. Like he said, may not be a popular opinion, but someone has to be the adult in the room. Here's what he said:
"Nearly every 2020 Graduating Senior should move on with their life & not return for another year of school & baseball. Incurring another year of tuition of $20,000 to $60,000 in order to play another 60 games of baseball is far from prudent. Every single day I hear about the $1.6 Trillion in student loan debt that our country is in. It is crippling people. It is keeping people from buying homes, from getting married, from starting families, from investing in their futures. And suddenly, there's an event that is going to entice kids to make an emotional decision that 5, 10, 20 years from now they will still be paying for. It is not prudent. The number of college seniors being drafted in the Top 5 rounds is very small. Making the "MLB Draft" a pretty poor excuse for returning. I'd tell you to go play in the DR or Mexico or straight up train all year instead of paying for another year of tuition. Are you on a full ride? Heck yeah! Go back! It will be the best year ever for you! Are your parents wealthy? Can they stroke a $50k check without batting an eye? Heck yeah! Go back! It will be the best year ever for you! I'm sure there are several "exceptions". There always are. But "exceptions" are just that. The *majority* of 2020 Graduating Seniors should hang of the spikes & join the real world. It's ok. If anything, that story may actually help you in the interview process."
I've been thinking the same thing a lot. It's also another reason that you should choose the school you attend as if baseball (or any sport) is NOT part of the equation. In other words, would you be happy/successful there if you didn't get to play for any number of possible reasons (injury, bench, etc...)? 4yrs vs 40. It brings home the PRIMARY reason for going to college - to get an education that will provide learning, growth, personal satisfaction & the ability to make a living and stand on your own two feet.
PABaseball posted:The only winners here are P5 schools who were already fully funded and can take on the additional costs to keep their corona seniors. They will likely have lights out pitching staffs and enough guys on the roster that the bottom half could have probably found a way into the top 50 RPI.
I would say that any school that can afford scholarships for their corona seniors is at an advantage. They can bring back the high performing seniors plus honor their NLIs for the 2020 high school grads.
Everyone else should be putting a better product on the field since they're all recruiting from a pool of 5 years worth of players as compared to 4 in a normal year. Very generally, no one in that group is at a real advantage since it's the same for everyone. On a case by case basis, some schools will benefit due to having top corona seniors who can afford to go to school for another year.
Which makes me wonder about the fall semester. Can corona seniors skip the fall semester if they don't need the credits?
I have spent the last couple of days looking at scenarios at our school. I think almost the entire team from this year will be back. There are a couple of guys who will be drafted but one fell from top 5 to projected 22 by PG. I won't be surprised to see him come back to make the jump back to top 5 or maybe even #1. The other two in top 200 are #45 and #98. There is 1 senior that got married this year so he might move on. The other two I would not be surprised to see them come back. I think you will get guys who come back at many P5's because of the hope of making the playoffs and a chance at CWS. I think there will be very little room for all except top 3/5 2020's for next spring. The catch with only having 3 seniors is the numbers only move to 38 and 30 which I think they will be 37/29. Not much room and 18 in 2020 class from HS and however many juco guys coming. I'm sure it will be that way and worse at most P5's and many mid-majors.
Go44dad posted:Gunner Mack Jr. posted:adbono posted:Go44dad posted:
MLB/MLBPA/NCAA got together to strategize about the 2020 High School class.
You forgot WHO
Our 2020 sons just have to step up/man up. What else can you do? Did it get a little harder - you bet - what can they do - outwork others. No different than before just more guys to beat out. We've all been impacted in many ways known and unknown.
Dirty little unspoken secret in the rah rah world of sports...It’s about natural talent and the gift of genetics.
Tough to huddle up the little leaguers before practice and tell them they are small, slow and uncoordinated and you got stuck with them because you were late for the draft and the other dads got all the athletes.
Of course hard work is important. It’s just assumed to be the norm.
Ain’t no hill for a stepper.
The first step to being a top athlete is pick your parents wisely. Sunday night I watched a 1992 interview with Bobby Orr, Ted Williams and Larry Bird. Bird had just retired. All three recognized early they had natural gifts. All three said they outworked everyone because 1) they wanted to get the most out of their gifts and 2) there were plenty of other very talented athletes in their game.
John Saunders, former ESPN announcer played D1 college hockey. He said his kids had the talent. But because he provided them with a cushy upbringing they lacked the drive to be a major college athlete.
If college baseball were blackjack the college players who aren’t draft prospect studs and 2020 recruits should feel like they have 20 showing and the dealer has an Ace up.
You know what you have. But you don’t have all the answers. There are going to be some personal decisions that feel good at the time and turn out to be disastrous.
RJM posted:Go44dad posted:Gunner Mack Jr. posted:adbono posted:Go44dad posted:
The first step to being a top athlete is pick your parents wisely. Sunday night I watched a 1992 interview with Bobby Orr, Ted Williams and Larry Bird. Bird had just retired. All three recognized early they had natural gifts. All three said they outworked everyone because 1) they wanted to get the most out of their gifts and 2) there were plenty of other very talented athletes in their game.
John Saunders, former ESPN announcer played D1 college hockey. He said his kids had the talent. But because he provided them with a cushy upbringing they lacked the drive to be a major college athlete.
I used to tell my kids that if they were "one in a million" talents (in school or sports), that meant there were eight million people in the world just as good as them. (Not to mention another 10 or 20 million who may just want want success more than you do. )
Ummmm....
Signed,
8th grade math teacher
jacjacatk posted:Ummmm....
Signed,
8th grade math teacher
Yes I meant to say 8 thousand. I am trying to work from home while also posting here. Clearly that is at least one thing too many.