The ODDS of playing

I would take the odds into account along with other relevant information about the pros/cons of available alternatives, have some self-awareness about my tolerance for risk-taking/risk-aversion, and try to make a good decision for me. I would not ignore relevant information or flip a coin or something like that.

 

That's just me, not saying this is the what others must do.

 

I kinda do this with all decisions. How do others out there make decisions?

Agree with my lady.  That there is risk aversion.

"My lady"!

 

Is that the best you got?

Yup.  She's beautiful and simply the best.

Nice post backstop-17. Best of luck to him this spring.

And back to square one.  Lets do compare it to poker, are the odds better if your holding two aces or a two and a seven of different suit?  Those two hands certainly don't have the same odds of winning.

 

You have Justin Upton and someone that is a reserve on a bad high school Team.  They certainly don't have the same odds of playing at a higher level.  In fact, one has nearly a 100% chance, the other has nearly a zero % chance. From one player to another the odds are different.  And there is no scientific way of determining anyone's true odds.

 

As to selling dreams, that can't be done.  You can sell opportunity, you. Can't sell someone their dream.  I have seen many young players that should change their dream if it involves playing at the highest levels of baseball.  They simply don't possess the talent necessary and should not be considered in the odds of making it.  They can chase all they want and will find out at a very young age this is not in the future for them.  No odds of making it involved.  They move on in life and do something else. Hopefully they will have fond memories of playing organized baseball. Hopefully it taught them something worthwhile, something that might help them become successful.

 

So YES! You have the near 100% guys and the near Zero guys. Now with all those in between what are the odds?   If someone can answer that question they need to be running a Major League organization.  Because that is precisely what scouts do for a living.  They are the ones that determine your odds.   If they think you are a first round pick, they believe your odds are near 100%. Otherwise they wouldn't select you in the first round.  If they pick you in the middle rounds, they are telling you you have a chance.  If they pick you late in the draft, they hope you will develop, but they don't think you will make it.  If they don't want you at all, they are telling you they don't think you have a chance.   Maybe this is the point where the odds come into play.   Do you continue to chase the dream (like a Kurt Warner) because the odds are greatly against you?   Or do you give it up and start preparing for life without baseball.  Either way you are still young and capable of accomplishing great things in your life time. I can understand why some would keep chasing and can also understand why some might move on to something else.

 

Just for the record, I've never wanted to take money from someone we can't help.  I don't want bad players at our events.  It is embarrassing to us and more importantly embarrassing to the player.  If I knew for certain someone was a bad player and we couldn't help him one bit, I would tell him not to attend our events.  In fact, I have done exactly that many times.  That said, we still get some players that have no chance and yes, we do take their money.  But I never feel very good about that. This country has enough talented kids that do have a chance.  Surely, everyone here has noticed there  are lots of talented kids out there. Some will blossom, some won't, we don't always know which will do what, but that part is not up to us.  

 

So I can't speak for everyone, but nobody in our organization is selling dreams.  No one, including us, can fulfill someone's dream to play baseball at a high level other than the player himself. Have we taken money from players with no chance? YES. But we don't want to! We don't want those kids to spend money on us. However, you could be the worlds worst player and if we didn't know that, there are a few PG events you can get into.  But you will not be happy with the results.  You don't need us and we don't need you. No disrespect at all, just the way it is.

 

Thanks to all, I've really enjoyed reading everyone's good thoughts on the subject.  In the end  things will keep moving along no matter what any of us believe. 

PG, I really appreciate your kindness and your post about Rusty.  And although I'm not related to you either you are still family--baseball family.

I'm working on that humility thing, LOL.

I feel the same way Bum. And it's easy saying nice things about Rusty.  

 

You know I never really care about whether someone agrees with my opinions.  It's not hard to respect someone with a different opinion even if you disagree. Besides, there is always the possibility that you are wrong.  

 

The amount of knowledge and real experience among those that participate here has always astounded me.  Sometimes I wish I didn't have the PG connection and could just let it loose.  Then I will read something Coach May and others write and it makes my day, knowing people like this are speaking out here. Sometimes I get the feeling that Coach May and I grew up on the same block and mentored by the same people. Though he got the brains and the looks, I am taller!  Guess that means I am the better prospect based on what I read here.

 

 

It's interesting that you took that whole "selling dreams" personally, PGStaff. PG wasn't among the organizations that came to my mind when I read that.

 

But as PG continues to grow, I wonder (since it's almost axiomatic: the larger the organization, the less direct control) ... does it worry you that the PG brand, which in my perception is about high-quality baseball for high-quality players ... is at risk?

 

 

jp24,

 

Actually I didn't take it personally.  It just reminded me that others have said that about PG in the past.  Selling dreams, taking advantage of kids dreams, etc.  so once I heard that mentioned even if not about us, it touched a nerve from previous experiences. It is not something we are interested in.

 

i've never heard the word axiomatic.  So it's hard to respond to that.  Perfect Game is growing faster than ever.  In fact, we are scheduled to open a new complex in Georgia next year. We are close to announcing a big partnership with a very well known company.  

 

No doubt our organization is geared toward quality players.  While that does somewhat limit the numbers, it is very appealing to scouting departments, college coaches, agents, and many businesses that have an interest in the top level players.  That in turn becomes very appealing to the talented baseball players.  Our new motto will be... If you're good enough, they will find you, at a Perfect Game event.  Nearly every Major League player under the age of 26 that was born in the USA has been to a Perfect Game event, usually much more than one event. Nearly every first round pick out ofbhigh school in the past 15 years has been to a PG event.   That method has worked very well for PG and it seems to grow a lot every year.

 

I'm always aware of the possibility of things going bad, but I don't have much time to spend worrying about it.  We are still trying hard to get better. We have many very loyal employees and that is probably the main responsibility these days.  Those are the people that would concern me the most if we were to fail. It's a big obligation and one that is not taken lightly. I've watched people raise families, while they gave PG so much over a long period of time. That's the only thing that scares me about failing.

 

 

 

 

PG, I remind you of the line from the movie "It's a Wonderful Life".  No man is a failure who has friends.  Merry Christmas to you and everyone here on HSBBW.

I've followed this thread a bit, but haven't read it all. But from what I have read, it seems I might have something to add.

 

As parents, we all know the "odds" of our youngsters eventually playing in the major leagues. I've never thought, however, that the reality of long odds was a reason to discourage the dream. From a very early age it has been my son's goal to play big league baseball. Why discourage such a dream?

 

I remember so clearly one day, my son and I driving to his practice, he was maybe 11 years old. He looked at me, and asked: "Dad, do you think I can make it?"

 

I remember it so vividly. Do I tell him the reality of how unlikely it was that he would ever end up being a major league baseball player? I decided that there was plenty of time for that. I answered with the truth, if not the entire truth: "Yes, I think you can make it."

 

I've thought about that moment a lot over the years. As baseball parents, we all want to strike the right balance between encouraging our kids to go as far as they can in the game, while keeping a healthy perspective on the bigger picture. How do we encourage our kids to realize their dreams in baseball and at the same time make sure that other doors remain open?

 

We didn't want to discourage his dream, but at the same time we wanted to make sure that he would be prepared for life beyond baseball.

 

Part of the answer, for us, was to have him play college baseball at the best combination of competitive baseball and top tier academics as possible. Frankly, this was more a priority of mine than his during his recruiting experience. But I believe that he saw the wisdom in it as he matured.

 

When Duke came calling, that was obviously a no brainer.

 

So, he graduates from Duke after a good career, but goes undrafted. The "odds" are against him. The problem: he loves the game, and is not ready to quit. He has always been the guy coaches love  when they see him play over extended periods, but they don't fall in love at first sight.

 

He signed and played last summer with an Indy league club, and did very well. Anyone think he doesn't understand the odds of making it in baseball from the Indy leagues? Of course he does.

 

But he loves the game. Tell him he's got a 1% chance of climbing the ladder to the top, and he just kind of gives you a blank stare. It's almost irrelevant to him, because he likes playing baseball.

 

But none of that means he has not set himself up to have options after his playing days are over. He is working in the off season at Nike, and expects to have a career track job with the company after his baseball days are over. 

 

So, the "odds" are irrelevant. He will play until they tell him he is done, and then he will pursue the avenues that he has set himself up to pursue awn the cleats are on the wall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I have two lifelong friends who I played with in HS many years ago.  They both went on to play in college.  One went on to win an Olympic gold medal, was drafted, and played several years at the MLB level.  He played in all star games as well as the World Series.  He's a coach now.  The other player did not reach the next level.  Instead, has enjoyed a successful career in business.  He turned 49 yesterday...and is still playing baseball in an adult wooden bat league.  He hasn't missed a season since he was 7 years old.  The best thing about this guy is his unbridled enthusiasm for the game and the way he played...think Pete Rose.  Both of my friends are exceedingly happy and owe so much to the game of baseball.  I know for a fact neither ever cared about odds of anything.  Both just wanted to play.  In my opinion, it's parents who care about odds, not players.  Players just want to play.  Why must it go any deeper than that?  Let the players play and when it's all over so be it.  It was over for me in HS but I don't love the game any less than when I was a kid hoping to be a pro one day. Life is too short to worry about odds.  If all any of us did was worry about odds what a boring, limiting life it would be.

This has been the most interesting thread of the year imho.  Comes at a nice time.  I've created a link to this thread in the Golden Threads so people can reference it in the future.

Thanks CD. 

 

This has been a very interesting thread with some great points that I had not considered.  While I still feel strongly (I want as much data as possible!) there are some very valid points that we (parents) temper our thoughts and the data points with our sons.  Our job as a parent is to coach, guide ,councel and provide opportunities.  It isn't to sour our sons on the idea of chasing their dreams.  If they ask for our opinions, we should provide one albeit a different message based on their talent, age and maturity.  JMO.

I'm a little late to the party on this one however I found this thread to be a very interesting topic (thanks Jerry). Since my player is one of those currently trying to "beat the odds” in his pro career, here's my two cents.

 

By the time Jeseyson was drafted out of HS he felt he had already beaten the odds to be put in that position.  In his mind the odds were a non-issue and to some degree he felt the odds were in his favor.  Would he have felt that way if they wanted him to sign for a bus ticket and meal money...probably not?  We had many conversations about “the odds” during the process of deciding if he should sign as a pro or go to college.  At the end of the day… to him, this is was a once in a lifetime opportunity and he wanted to go for it.  The odds were not something that were going to discourage him, if anything I think it just clarified for him that he was making a choice to compete against the best in the world and he better not take anything for granted.  As a parent that's about all I could ask for in his decision making process (yes his bonus helped me to to feel better about his decision).

 

The other sub topic of this thread seems to be that a faction of our tribe believes it should be an "all in" plan to try to beat the odds of making it (MLB, MILB, College, and HS).  While I certainly respect other opinions, I don't know why it has to be that way?  In my personal and professional life I have always had an A, B and sometimes C plans (goals) on the board.  More realistically, it was probably more that my plan A incorporated components of my B & C goals so I adjusted them as needed. With Jerseyson I think he is taking the same type of approach...His plan A is to pitch in the major leagues someday, the other components of that plan are for him was to work on earning his degree while still playing so that it will hopefully enhance his career in the future (be it baseball, business or candlestick making).  The point is, why can't a player focus on the baseball aspect of their life while still working towards other life goals?

 

Whether he makes it or not I’d say he (and many of our boys) have already beaten many odds…just can’t wait to see where they all end up. 

 

I heard the average NFL running back has a three year career.  Now there is a number that is hard to ignore!

PGStaff -- thanks for responding. Hope that didn't come across wrong. I think you understood it like I asked it.

 

I like the new tagline.

That's my opinion also.  There is no reason to not help support our sons dreams and the career paths they wish to pursue, but at the same time, it is also our job to be realistic in the messages that we send.  And it is important for it to be about what they want not what we want.

 

What data do we need to show to prove a point about odds? Almost all of our players obviously did have plan. I know that many of our websters sons wished to play professional ball,   but most (mine included) went to college first.  Some had no choice, some did because they thought their odds would be better going to college. 

 

Some were drafted and others not, but the bottom line is that they all knew that if it didn't happen out of HS, it could happen out of college.

 

 

 

 

 

jerseydad, I am with you, have more than one plan just in case things don't work out. I think my son would be that way too. My son is a math major,I don't think he could ignore the odds.

Runningaway,

 

As a math major what would your son come up with for the odds?  Same as everyone?  Would he take into account his ability compared to others? 

 

Hate to keep repeating this, but odds are different for every one.  It's not like the odds of winning the lottery. In baseball the odds are determined by the player and even more so by those that assess his ability.  The college recruiter has a good idea of the odds of a player helping his program.  The pro scouts have a good idea of the odds of a player making it to the Big Leagues.  After all, that is the main reason for grading players and having a draft or even signing free agents. Those the scouts feel have the very best odds of playing in the Big Leagues get drafted first.  Their odds are excellent!

 

So some might ask... What are the odds of being selected in the first round or first 5-10 rounds.  Well, that goes right back to the individual's ability and makeup. The odds are never the same for every person.  In fact, they can be altogether different.

 

Whether someone has a plan B, plan C, or whatever, is also an individual thing.  Maybe that should be a different topic.  Going to college is already a plan B, because we all know it's not required to go to college to be a Major League Baseball player.

 

My argument isn't about any plans, it's about the meaningless odds people keep talking about. In baseball a players true odds are determined by other people.  You could say that they do it for a living. If they are wrong a lot they will need a plan B.  Then it is all up to the player, is he persistent, is he a hard worker, mentally tough?  Many people have dreams, but not everyone is willing to do what it takes to realize those dreams. Of course, many fail to reach their goals.  That doesn't mean chasing that goal was a waste of time. In fact, I consider it a big plus!  There can always be a new goal! Chasing goals with great effort is a good thing, it's a good habit to get into.

 

And that's all there really is to it, in my opinion.

 

 

PG, I was talking in general if my son was drafted I would hope that he had a plan B maybe a plan C. When my kids talked about future majors we talked about jobs that interested them and we looked at the job prospects in the fields they were interested in. Looking at some of the different occupations like doctor's, lawyers accountants etc., we personally know many. We don't know ANY semi pro or Pro athletes.They are a rare commodity...even the ones who are paid poorly...(which is sad). If my son had the opportunity to play baseball beyond college we would be happy for him, but would say have a plan beyond baseball because of how hard it is to make it.

 

I think very successful people are highly self driven be it in the classroom or on the playing field.

 

 

 

 

Excellent post by PG!

 

Runningaway,

You can contact me with any questions you may have regarding professional ball on the lower level (MILB).

Because you know of no one, you really don't know exactly what it all entails. I would be happy to answer any questions.

Or you could contact Mitch BBP with any questions as well.

 

I want to throw some numbers I read a couple of years ago that add to PGs last post. 84% of American players in MLB were drafted in the first ten rounds. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. So if you're trying to calculate odds they are much different if a player is selected in the top ten rounds versus rounds 21-40. Imagine, in the past being drafted in rounds 41-60. MLB doesn't consider these rounds relevant enough to conduct them anymore. 

 

Has anyone made a MLB career out of being a late round pick? Sure. But the odds are long. There aren't many. Real late picks are often friends or relatives of the GM. Mike Piazza was selected in the 60th round as a favor to one of Tom Lasorda's lifelong buddies from Norristown PA.

 

There are also quite a few undrafted players.  I'd imagine their odds were even worse.

 

 

not exactly right RJM. He got a workout in front of a dodger scout, where he proceeded to tear the cover off the ball. The scout was still unimpressed and said he could find 10 firstbasemen better then him. Maybe if he was a catcher the scout said where Lasorda told Mike to go behind the plate. The rest as they say is history. Lets not forget that Pete Rose was signed just as a favor to his father. That's one and one that should be a HOFer that maybe wouldn't have had a chance. Still don't know why no one wanted Mike as those trees at Miami Dade are far far away from home plate where he was hitting them. Go figure.

And as far as picks of friends and reletives RJM let me assure you that the nepotism that was at the back end of the draft is alive and well. As a matter of fact it is creeping even further up into the early rounds as this years draft showed. 40 or 60 rounds as long as you get a shot you never know. That's why they play the games and don't hand victories out over whats on paper.

Old man ... I was told face to face by one of Piazza's relatives Piazza's one was drafted as a favor to his father by Lasorda. They were all buddies who grew up together. The relative was part of the geezer gang in the Burger King in our town. I got to know him because he knew of my son going back to high school.

Thank you for your confirmation. I don't see where I posted its gone away.

TPM , Thanks for the offer, I will keep that in mind if I want to know what being in the MILB entails. When I said I didn't know anyone in the pro levels of sports I meant in the flesh.

That's why I offered if you have questions. 

Personally I think more people should be more open about milb, the positive and the negative.

What could possibly go wrong in the Milb?

 

 

Just kidding TPM.

I didn't necessarily mean anything bad happening (though it does).  I meant understanding its a business, understanding things that are not explained when a young player is eager to begin his pro career. 

 

Here is an example, one might be that many players do not make full season teams, they now will spend months playing at their complexes, up at dawn and done at 1-2 until June. 

 

Now that may be really good for a player in rehab, but is that productive for a late sign out of HS?  Maybe his time might be best served by attending JUCO or a 4 year program to start on plan B.

How about injury?  Do players know their rights when an injury occurs? A late sign rookie without an agent has to take the word of the team trainer, team doctor (or maybe the closest doctor to that location).  Injury means lost time, so you have to know when to hold it and when to fold it, as they say.

 

I am not referring to the guys that get paid nice money to sign and have agents to advise them, but to those who basically have the greater odds against them.

 

Most people don't understand, I know I didn't, I am not sure you did either, so how would a player in HS and his family know if they have never spoken to anyone in that situation?

My view on this subject has changed as my son has aged. He graduated from college 3-years ago, played one summer of pro ball and then went on to graduate school.

 

As a parent you never truly look at the odd of success in any one aspect of your son's life. You look at the cumulative growth that experiences bring.

 

Probability of gaining fame and fortune in baseball is slim to none. However, the experiences that one gains at any level can be the foundation for success at some aspect of life.

 

I was reading Rob Kremer's post above. I remember meeting Rob when his son was going through the recruiting phase out of high school. His son and mine are very similar, good kids, smart and hardworking. Were they going to be big time pro baseball stars; no, but they were going to learn through success and failure the lessons that will carry them through life.

 

For all the parents that post here; this thread is not about "probability of success in baseball;" it is about learning lessons that will create a bright future for our country. It is about the lessons learned through competition, success and failure, commitment to your teammates and yourself.

 

My son had a great baseball career in college. Ultimately, everyone's baseball career ends the lessons learned will carry those that care about what the game really means to a productive and successful life.

 

My son received his MBA from the University of Texas this week, he is getting married this spring. Yet what got him is job was not what he did in the classroom it was the ability to tell a good story about his experience playing baseball.

 

The odds of success in life improve for young men that commit to excellence no matter where they choose to compete.

Great post ILVBB!

Congratulations to your son on his graduation and pending marriage!

I have enjoyed this thread thanks PG for starting it. Were talking about playing a sport. Were talking about a sport where your going to fail a great deal even when you are very good at it. There are so many variables to what were talking about here. Every young man that picks up a baseball and decides they want to play this game has a certain natural born skill set. God given tools. Every kid has a different genetic make up were dealing with. Every kid has a different mental make up. And the list goes on and on.

 

Every players odds of "making it" are different. Some overcome great odds to make it. Some have better odds of making it and fail miserably at the game. Players imo can't focus on the odds. They either love the game and want to achieve all they can in this game or they don't. They are either willing to do what it's going to take for them to make it or they are not. They are either willing to scuff and grind or they are not. They are willing to fail to succeed or they are not.

 

I think the key is how is making it defined? If making it is defined by making the show then the odds are obviously slimmer. If making it is defined as playing in college they are not as slim. And so on. What can we ask of a player? IMO its simple. You are either all in or all out. You are either going to be all you can be or your not. If you reach that goal of being all you can be you have made it in this game. So for me the kid that is all he can be and makes his HS team one day has made it. And the kid that was not all he could be and only made the college team did not make it.

 

Do the odds scare you from being all you can be? If so the odds matter to you. If the odds have no bearing in you being all you can be then they don't mean squat. Look we all know the odds of making it to the MLB are slim. Who cares? Heck I have beat the odds several times and didn't even know it until someone told me. And to be honest I didn't care.

 

All I wanted my boys to get out of sports was to learn how to deal with failure and success. To learn what it means to be part of something bigger than them. To experience the joy of victory and learn to deal with failure. To understand the meaning of sharing a common goal and learn how to fight for something. To be all they could be in whatever they decided to do. The odds of the endeavor when stacked against you should drive you to be the best you can possibly be. Not cause you to shrink and run from the opportunity. I have always like the saying "If it was easy everyone would do it."

 

One of my proudest moments while watching my youngest son play baseball happened his RS Soph season in college. Game is 2-1 its the bottom of the 9th. He is 0-3 with 3 ugly K's. He walked up to the plate like he was 3-3. Got in a 1-2 count looking stupid like he had all day on breaking balls. And then hammered a game winning HR on a breaking pitch. After the game he said "I might have struck out 3 times and looked like a clown. But I am clutch. I deliver when I have to deliver."

 

Where in life do these kids that never face the odds of baseball learn these lessons our kids have learned and will learn? How much adversity have they faced? How much failure have they had to endure? How hard have they ever had to work for something? How many weeks have they worked and never got a pay check? You know like the kid that works just as hard as every other player sometimes harder but never see's the field. But he has the same great attitude every day in practice regardless of what's going on in class or his life. And shows back up each day ready to go to work.

 

The odds are if a young man learns what it takes to be all he can be at this game we call baseball he is going to smoke the competition in life once the cleats are hung up. Why? Because he knows. He has already done it. He had faced the Beast. He has had the guts to fail and get right back in there and fight for what he wants. Give me a guy who says to hel with the odds I want it and I am willing to face it. Those that measure their passion and desire based on the odds and think they can live a full life never played the game. You might have played. But you really never played.

AMEN!

Congrats to your son. My son followed a similar path, very solid college career, got his MBA at his undergrad school and stayed in town, going to work in the banking business. Baseball served him very well, instilling the strong sense of personal responsibility, He understands that if he has a problem he needs to have a chat with the "man in the mirror" his college coach mentioned so often.

 

Two of his college teammates are on MLB 25-man rosters. One was a 3rd round pick and the other picked in the 10th round, junior years. Neither was drafted in high school, but blossomed in college. After a couple of pro seasons, it was obvious that, barring injury, both would at the very least get to MLB.

 

Both are very talented, but neither was a stone cold lock for pro baseball, or recruited by big college programs. After watching both guys since they were drafted, chatting with them on occasion, both were then, and remain hyper-focused on their craft, as most successful professionals of all types are.

 

It is cool turning on the TV to watch them play. I usually turn to my wife and we both say, "Can you believe this?" and I'm not even related. If anyone had predicted they would make it in college, I would have told them they were nuts, but I am sure they believed it. The odds had to be very long, at least to me, but apparently not.

 

MiBL Household Tip #1: Furnish your crib on Craigslist at the start of the season. Sell the stuff on Craigslist in Sept. 

 

MiBL Household Tip #2: Don't sign a long lease.

I have a son that played the better part of 11 years in the minors.  He enjoyed it!  Sure there are things that are tough, but there are millions that would do just about anything to have that chance.