Throwing 90

Depends if you ask the dads or the players

quote:

Depends if you ask the dads or the players Smile

Or the moms!

At PG (sorry - I can't stop talking about it!) our team faced two HS junior righties throwing 90+ and a lefty throwing high 80s. Wow. I would think it's a pretty small percentage that can do it, and those who can get a lot of attention.

I would say 12.5%.

PG knows this information. I'll guess it from memory but I believe he said there are about 200 nationally in each class of juniors and seniors. Probably some in the lower classes as well but the numbers probably drop off.

quote:

Originally posted by hsplayer:
What percentage of High School Pitchers reach 90?

Reach or work?

We have 6 HS's in our town and 8 total in our league. In the last six years I've seen maybe 3 hit 90 and only 1 regularly (signed at Wichita State).

I imagine it's a lot different elsewhere. Especially the warm weather states.

During the 1997-2004 when I operated the Area Code games and tryouts and Goodwill Series events, we logged in over 700 players each year.

From the computer, I could provide that information to the Scouting Directors. However, no scouting director requested this information. We could predict trends 3-4 years before they occurred.

We had the shoe size, mph, running speed, LHP or RHP;
section of the country was from and GPA.

Bob

Legitimate 90 or on Dadar?

A little research on this site:

http://www.hsbaseballweb.com/probability.htm

High School Baseball Players 455,300
High School Senior BB Players 130,100

So let's call it 250,000 Varsity players.

Let's assume that 40% of them are pitchers - that would be 100,000 HS Varsity BB pitchers of one flavor or another.

Now, taking the 200 number from above and double it given that PG may miss some (I doubt if they miss 50% of the 90+ guys but I am trying to be generous)

That would say that 0.4% of the HS pitchers are 90+.

Sounds about right to me.

I have a stalker and have used it at a few games for the fun of it. Some that dads claimed were throwing 90 - but only 2 that I have measured or where I have seen that measurement on someone else's radar gun. (1 went to University of Texas and the other was drafted and signed last year out of high school) Lots of 88s and 86s but no 90s.

Tons of 90+ guys on the travel ball circuit - try the WWBA 17U if you want to hear some 90+ gas - but not in the local leagues.

The thing you have to bear in mind is, the guy who threw 90 once working indoors with his pitching coach and letting it all hang out, probably peaks at 87-88 in a typical game and probably throws most of his fastballs at 85-86. Some of his fastballs, especially sinkers or cutters, will come in at 83. If it's a cold day, subtract 2 from all the above numbers, too.

Another hard thing is to determine what percentage of pitchers these guys represent. Do you consider everyone who might one day throw a pitch? Everyone who ever pitched in little league or for their travel team (meaning, everyone on the roster)? Just those who pitch a substantial number of innings? Or would you weight them according to how many innings they pitch?

If you include all the guys who scraped 90 once in this, then I would say we get 4-8 guys/year in central Virginia with that capability, depending on the year. That's out of about 25 public and another 6-10 private schools, depending on how far out of town you go.

Out of those, maybe 3 throw 90 or greater regularly. Maybe 1, maybe none, throw every fastball at 90 or greater.

This year there is one (and only one) guy in our area (central VA) who meets that standard. He is in PG's top 100 nationally and already has his college deal lined up. He cruises 90-91 and peaks at 93-94. I imagine he's probably hit 95 indoors during a bullpen here and there. On a chilly day he might run around 89.

The bulk of innings around here are thrown in the 81-84 range. A fair number of innings are handled by guys in the 75-80 range, and in the 85-89 range as well. There are plenty of guys throwing under 75 but they don't get a lot of innings, unless they are junk ball lefties or some such.

I should have said work (game) at 90.

May guess was going to be less than 5%.

I'll bet for every HS pitcher throwing 90 in a practice situation there will at least 1 IF/OF/C who would hit 90 if you threw them on the bump and said "let it rip". IMHO, a very overstated, many times exaggerated number that only confuses many young pitchers on what is important about the position.

I think 08Dad's analysis is pretty much on the money. Especially if the standard is how many pitchers cruise at 90. One half of one percent. Sounds right. Maybe one percent will touch 90 on a normal day for a pitch or two but cruise at 87ish.

From my experience with college baseball, the cruising speed that I most often see is 88 mph. Also, it seems like I see harder throwing in the summer leagues than during the regular college year.

Our high school coach always said if he could find two guys throwing at least 85 each year, he could compete for a state championship during those years. He felt 85 was a cutoff point for most high school hitters.

So far in the 2009 class we have "seen" 257 pitchers throw 90 or better (top speed)

I'm sure there is a small percentage that we have not seen, "yet". There are some that we have seen high 80s that will be throwing 90 or better this spring. There are some who we have seen touch 90 that may never do it again. So I would guess that the number overall will be less than 300 in the 09 class that will have touched 90 or better before they graduate from high school.

You could easily estimate that only about 10% to 20% of those actually "average" 90 or better with their fastball.

Note: The numbers drop drastically at 93 or better.

WE actually have data for each year we have been scouting high school players.

Regarding percentages: We only know how many pitchers we actually see during any year. We have no idea how many pitchers are actually in any given class. However, we tend to see nearly all of those who would be considered the best.

So far in the 2009 class we have seen 3,992 pitchers that we have recorded data in our files. Of those 3,992 pitchers, 257 have thrown 90 or better or .06%. Knowing we haven't seen the vast majority of pitchers who do not throw 90 or better, that % would be much lower over all.

Remember the figures above pertain to the 2009 High School class only! It does not include the 2010 or 2011 kids who have thrown 90.

This type of conversation comes up several times a year - and the challenge is always formulating the question.

Are we talking about 1 pitch over 90 or averaging 90 in a game?

Are we talking about ALL High School pitchers?

Including the kid who threw in one inning when the team was down by 20 runs?

Or are we talking about one of the regular pitchers - e.g. someone who takes the mound every week either as a starter or a regular guy out of the pen?

Or are we talking about only the aces - the top pitchers on the team?

And are we talking about all teams? From the nationally ranked powerhouses to the small religious school that pull up an 8th grader to make the roster 10 players?

In my calculations above, I pretty much assumed the biggest possible universe - everyone who took the mound in a high school varsity game in a season. My guess is under that model, you might watch 100+ games before you saw 1 pitch over 90... it just isn't that common. Think about the bad teams in your area - how many of them have 10+ pitchers who take the mound over the course of the season, none of whom can break glass?

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:


So far in the 2009 class we have seen 3,992 pitchers that we have recorded data in our files. Of those 3,992 pitchers, 257 have thrown 90 or better or .06%. Knowing we haven't seen the vast majority of pitchers who do not throw 90 or better, that % would be much lower over all.

I think that is 6% rather than .06% which would be 2 pitchers...

There are events that have a very high percentage of pitchers who threw 90 or better. The PG WWBA in Jupiter has around 150 or so every year.

You will see a higher percentages at East Coast Pro and Area Codes, but I don't know the exact numbers.

I do know that out of 119 pitchers who threw at the PG National at the Metrodome last June, 78 of them touched 90 or better or 66%. That is probably the highest percentage of all the events that have lots of players.

90 is rare, but it always amazes me when your at a place where 2 out of every 3 high school pitchers is doing it. 78 kids throwing 90 or better in two and a half days.

I was lucky enough to be at 17U WWBA two years ago, standing in the middle there at East Cobb where you can almost see 4 games at once - and three of the four had 90+ guys going at the same time (as per the scouts radar guns).

Simply amazing to watch.

quote:

Originally posted by rz1:
I'll bet for every HS pitcher throwing 90 in a practice situation there will at least 1 IF/OF/C who would hit 90 if you threw them on the bump and said "let it rip". IMHO, a very overstated, many times exaggerated number that only confuses many young pitchers on what is important about the position.

If I have read this correctly, I would have to strongly disagree. We also gun position players. While there are some who can throw 90 from the mound, the large majority of those also pitch in high school. And we have seen position players who throw mid 90s from the outfield and can't even get close to 90 from the mound.

Also, I feel that young pitchers do need to be educated that there is much more than velocity involved. At the same time, ignoring velocity and what it takes to gain in that area is just plain bad advice. Good mechanics is very much a part in all phases of pitching, including velocity.

quote:

I think that is 6% rather than .06% which would be 2 pitchers...

I could never understand why I would ever need all those math classes.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:
So far in the 2009 class we have "seen" 257 pitchers throw 90 or better (top speed)

Peaking at 90+ is one thing, but how many of those guys can cruise at 90?

I would imagine it's a much smaller number.

Couldn't agree more PG. Last spring my son's team faced J. Cosart ( he set your record for outfield throws at 102mph if I recall ) twice in conference play. He pitched in the 84 to 86 range and was much more effective than the year before when trying to hump it at 88-90.
Control will always out trump velocity.

quote:

Originally posted by hsplayer:
I should have said work (game) at 90.

May guess was going to be less than 5%.

I'm thinking PG sees the majority of kids who throw 90. My guess is way less than 0.5%. I am guessing less than 1 in 1,000 pitchers work at 90 before leaving high school. You are talkng about the cream of the crop of thoroughbreds qualifying for the KY Derby. You could fit them all on a few school busses.

quote:

Originally posted by PGStaff:

quote:

Originally posted by rz1:
I'll bet for every HS pitcher throwing 90 in a practice situation there will at least 1 IF/OF/C who would hit 90 if you threw them on the bump and said "let it rip". IMHO, a very overstated, many times exaggerated number that only confuses many young pitchers on what is important about the position.

If I have read this correctly, I would have to strongly disagree. We also gun position players. While there are some who can throw 90 from the mound, the large majority of those also pitch in high school. And we have seen position players who throw mid 90s from the outfield and can't even get close to 90 from the mound.

I figured I'd hear from you if I threw a statement like that in from the cheap seats .

Maybe I didn't phrase that correctly. I still may be way off base but I meant that IMO for every pitcher who hits 90 in a controlled environment another player from the positions of C,IF,or OF could "grip-n-rip a 90 in the same environment. Not each position. Also, I'm not saying it would be thrown for a quality strike, but readable on the gun. At the same time I wonder how many of those "pitchers" throwing 90 are throwing a "quality pitch" at that speed? Personally I'd rather see a located "heavy 88" at the knees than a flat 90 at the belt with the pitcher finishing out of control at the bottom of the hill.

PG you're the expert, my opinion is based on personal analysis, DNA relationship with a certain pitcher, and watching college, summer college, and milb games for many fewer years than you. Maybe I'm not watching the right games but with the number of kids "throwing" 90 in HS you'd think that many more would be "pitching" that speed at those other levels.

quote:

Maybe I'm not watching the right games but with the number of kids "throwing" 90 in HS you'd think that many more would be "pitching" that speed at those other levels.

I'm not sure if the number of kids throwing 90 is all that large. I did mention that a small percentage of those 257 would "average" 90 or better with their fastball. Even if we take the 257, think about how few that allows for the next levels (Pro/College) The draft will get some (usually the best ones) The top college programs might get more than one, some go to Jucos. That doesn't even leave enough for all the DI colleges to get a 90 mph arm each year.

I think everyone would agree with rz1 that a good upper 80s sinker is better than a straight 90 mph FB. I only posted because the topic was "Throwing 90" and "hsplayer" started this thread by asking a question...

quote:

What percentage of High School Pitchers reach 90?

quote:

08Dad posted... Legitimate 90 or on Dadar?

Speaking of "DADAR Readings" We sure do hear 90+ much more than we see it. In fact, sometimes we hear low 90s and actually see low 80s.

PG, that brings up a another term that's widely used,
"crafty lefty". How many times do you hear that and then see a kid and there is nothing crafty about him.

I think most who lack velocity are given that term whether they are or not.

Danny Boydson,

We actually use that description (Crafty Lefty) at times. Of course, I’d like to think when we use that description it is true. It is odd, that so many describe a certain pitcher so many different ways… Crafty Lefty, Soft Tosser, Finesse Pitcher, etc.

Don’t know that I’ve ever heard a RHP called a Crafty Righty, why is that?

Truth is we have heard that so and so is crafty lefty, when a more accurate description would have been “He doesn’t throw very hard”. Those two descriptions can be very different in most cases and they can sometimes both be accurate. BTW, sometimes those crafty lefties do throw hard.

PG,

When my son gets lit up, I tell folks he's a soft tossing lefty. When he has a good outing I label him a "crafty lefty". (Just kidding)

PG,

Thank you for the reply. Your numbers basically answered my question.
While there are many aspects to pitching beyond velocity, it seems 90 starts to turn heads…. I was just wondering how many actually threw 90.

Thanks

I have found this topic very interesting over the years. In our house, we call it the "rule of 5." I would say that 97% of the time if you ask a dad/player what he is throwing......take that number, subtract 5, and that is generally what they are throwing in a game. I use a radar gun at many events.

The highest number of nineties that I observed were at the WWB Tourney in Jupiter. At high school games over the past 5 years, I have seen one kid hit it and it was not consistant by any means. That's a lot of games and we are a BIG school and play a tough schedule.

At local showcases w/ all the top kids, I've seen it much more often but even then, consistant 90 is very rare. Many times, I will see a kid (who supposedly throws 92/93)hit that number a few times and then when he goes out of the stretch, he starts throwing upper 80's. That happens very often.

I always ask the coach who is recruiting my kid what their top 4 starting pitchers throw consistant in a game. When I hear those numbers (most are honest) it really puts things in perspective and suddenly your recruited player hears that too and starts realizing that he can play. When he now hears "we have 8 pitchers on our D-3 staff throwing 90" that those numbers are less than believable.

For what it is worth, I never sent my two kids to any winter showcases - just to try and light up the radar gun. Everyone is SO fixated on throwing 90 at these things and if you don't hit it, your are setting yourself up for dissapointment IMO. As an example, my youngest kid throws mid-80's, he went 36 IP in a row without walking a batter last spring and interest in minimal. The interest came from poeple who saw him throw in a game. Exposure is kind of a **** shoot...if you throw really well and no one is there to see it..... If he goes to a winter showcase, has poor control that day, and only throws 84 it won't stir up any interest. Risk of injury in December? High IMO. Now in June that is a different story.

Hope I didn't bore anyone. A very interesting, misunderstood topic.

That doesn't even leave enough for all the DI colleges to get a 90 mph arm each year.


to throw another angle in here. those high school kids throwing mid to high 80's, might very well be throwing in the 90's in a few years. it happens quite often.

nc42dad,

The last college I coached at had basically 5 starting pitchers. This is an NAIA school.

1 - RHP - Top at 96 - consistent 90-93
2 - LHP - Top at 86 - FB anywhere from 78-86
3 - LHP - Top at 89 - consistent 85-87
4 - RHP - Top at 87 - consistent 84-86
5 - RHP - Top at 85 - consistent low to mid 80s

1 and 3 ended up pitching in the Major Leagues. 2 really was a crafty lefty.

How about the HS coach who sends in info that the boy is consistently 89 to 91 and is a definite draft pick/major D-1 school ??---you finally see him and he doesn't break 85 if he is lucky


Why do HS coaches do that? That are doing nothing but hurting the player

PG-

Those numbers are to a TEE what we have consistantly heard from many schools (probably not the ASU/USC/UNC variety)but doesn't that really put things more in perspective. When I watched my oldest in Greensboro (SALLY league) most of the starting pitchers were upper 80's guys!!!

What NAIA school did you coach at? I wasn't aware of that. Great info...

They do it to get someone out to see him. And then they do way more damage than good once someone does.

Instead of being excited that they saw what they were told they were going to see they are poed that they saw something entirely different. You do no one any good when you are not honest about a player.

You hurt the player.
You hurt future players.
You hurt yourself.

Unfortunately, I see too many HS pitchers with very naturally strong arms get caught up in taking lessons and trying to throw hard instead of becoming pitchers. The position is "pitcher-not thrower". Maybe we should use the phrase "How hard does he pitch" or "What velocity does he pitch at" instead of " how hard does he throw" or " he throws (input your velocity)"

I tell my son all the time that most major leaguers can throw the ball as hard or even harder than most pitchers-They just can't pitch.

JMO

quote:

to throw another angle in here. those high school kids throwing mid to high 80's, might very well be throwing in the 90's in a few years. it happens quite often.

20dad,
That is a very good point.

Also, if anyone follows our rankings, they would notice there are pitchers who have thrown 90 or better ranked far below some others who we have never seen touch 90. Obviously that doesn't mean our rankings are right, but it does show that we consider much more than just velocity.

Please don't think this is bragging, because there are many who can do the same thing. With a certain amount of accuracy, you can watch a young pitcher and predict his future velocity. You just see all the signs and bank on thousands that you saw come before him and project. Of course injuries can get in the way and you never know how dedicated and hard working the young pitcher is, but it's not that hard to predict when the right things are present.

Lighting up the radar gun can create lots of interest, but young pitchers need to understand that there are lots of good scouts and recruiters out there who can see something special without reading a radar gun.

The biggest problem is when a young pitcher is trying so hard, he muscles up, tightens up and throws at a lower velocity. He actually gets the opposite results. It's not just throwing at a good velocity... It's about throwing good velocity without muscling up. The guy throwing 90 with everything he has is not as interesting as the guy throwing 86-87 loose and easy.

Obviously there is much more involved in being an outstanding pitcher. Just trying to stay on the velocity topic. I really think this is an important subject. Velocity IS over rated at times. However, velocity should never be under rated. IMO that would be a mistake.

Note – This topic is about 90, but even though there are a low percentage of 90 mph HS pitchers… One thing needs to be addressed… 90 is just a number and it’s really not that great of a number at the higher levels. In fact, it’s an average number at the highest level.
Good mid 80s is better than bad 90!

Interesting statistics-MLB

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=sta...y&type=4&season=2008

quote:

The position is "pitcher-not thrower".

Think I know what you mean, but I can't think of a single thing in any sport where having the ability to "throw" is more important. The mechanics involved in pitching involve improving Throwing, whether it is to increase velocity, accuracy, other pitches, consistency, etc. It's still about throwing.

Pitchers Throw... I do agree that Throwers don't necessarily Pitch.

Sons senior year in high school there was a Junior College come out and watch a teammate do a bullpen. Their comment was "you're a thrower, not a pitcher". The young man never heard another word from that school.

If you do not have proper throwing mechanics, you will never be a pitcher.

MLB teams focus on throwing mechanics and repeating them corectly over and over. I have not seen that same kind of emphasis anywhere else. Just throwing long toss & not throwing correctly is futile.