quote:Originally posted by PGStaff:
With a certain amount of accuracy, you can watch a young pitcher and predict his future velocity. You just see all the signs and bank on thousands that you saw come before him and project. Of course injuries can get in the way and you never know how dedicated and hard working the young pitcher is, but it's not that hard to predict when the right things are present.
Lighting up the radar gun can create lots of interest, but young pitchers need to understand that there are lots of good scouts and recruiters out there who can see something special without reading a radar gun.
The biggest problem is when a young pitcher is trying so hard, he muscles up, tightens up and throws at a lower velocity. He actually gets the opposite results. It's not just throwing at a good velocity... It's about throwing good velocity without muscling up. The guy throwing 90 with everything he has is not as interesting as the guy throwing 86-87 loose and easy.
Although you have said this before in other topics over the years, this is probably the most important thing that those who have young pitchers should always remember.
As to rz's post, I somewhat have to agree with some things he said. For example, in HS, one of the players on son's team threw way harder than son, but on the mound he just couldn't pitch. Depending upon the team we were playing, they put him in sometimes as a closer so he could throw down the middle, no one could touch it. he could throw hard, but he couldn't pitch.
I think that you don't see many position players who throw 90+ because they become converted pitchers. Interesting, one might get a scholarship as a postition player with a strong arm but wind up a pitcher and same thing goes for pro ball as well.
As far as what PG posted about muscling up, I saw that happen to a really good pitcher, who didn't hit 90 but was very accurate. Draft year he threw to the gun for a better draft position, and he also threw away his start. It does happen. Never tell your player to light up the gun on purpose so someone will notice you. The term loose arm is highly desirable in scouting.
As far as lefties with lower velocity, it's my understanding for top D1 coaches that a lefty not afraid to throw his FB and accurate is much more desirable than one who lives off the off speed. Of course those that show the ability to improve (project) their velo and coachable get much consideration.
Good stuff in this topic.