Throwing 90

oldmanmoses,

 

You bring up some good points! I would agree with most everything you wrote.

 

There is one thing you mentioned that I do disagree with, though. Many others have said the same thing in the past regarding the scouting community being enamoured by the gun and high velocity so much that they overlook everything else. It just doesn't work that way! Good scouts don't overlook anything!

 

If you are a scouting director, and your area scout turns in a report that he got so and so throwing 95-97 in California with decent command... What would you do?  What most do is schedule a trip to California to see the kid pitch.  They already know how hard he throws, so why would make that trip?  Reason... He needs to see the other things.

 

Of course, high velocity draws more interest than lower velocity.  It is near impossible to   run around the country writing reports on every kid that throws mid 80s.  The lesser velocity kids are usually seen by scouts when they are pitching against a high velocity guy or if his team or the opposing team has known prospects.  

 

It's all about how good someone will be in the future.  Getting high school hitters out, doesn't mean the same pitcher will become successful at the higher levels.  But we do know what MLB average velocity is.  We know that 85-88 is well below MLB average.  So when you are trying to "predict or guess" how good someone will be in the future, would you pick the below average current guy or the above average current guy. Also, remember that in most cases the high velocity guy will throw the faster breaking ball as well.  Not only that, but those that create the most velocity usually create the most spin, so they have a better chance to develop a plus breaking ball.  And regards to speed alone, the 83 mph change up is tougher to hit than the 73 mph change up if everything else is equal. The higher the velocity the harder the same differentials become for hitters to adjust to. EG... Tougher to adjust to 95FB - 83CH or 75FB - 63CH.

 

Sometimes the mid 80s guy makes it and sometimes the mid 90s guy doesn't make it. It just doesn't happen often enough to change the scouting communities mind. The speed of the game, in every way, separates the higher levels from the lower levels.

 

Bottom line... The scouting community does care about everything that they see.  It's just that they know the vast majority of the best pitchers in baseball, now and  throughout history are those that show they can reach a certain velocity.

 

Everyone would want the 88 mph good pitcher over the 91 bad pitcher. But neither one is going to be a high draft pick. It's not like the scouting community likes every pitcher that throws 90+. They really do look at much more than just the radar gun! Then again, sometimes what the radar gun reads gets them to dreaming about future potential (ceiling)! If an amateur pitcher tops out below MLB ave., I would recommend working to improve velocity. Many have done exactly that!

 

Please understand, there's a place for the lower velocity guys who can pitch well. I really enjoy watching good pitchers whether they throw hard or not.  My remarks above just relate to how MLB scouts most often look at things.  Colleges, on the other hand, could easily fall in love with mid to upper 80s guys that can really pitch. I've seen a few low 80s guys with an outstanding breaking ball get recruited by top level colleges. And there is a college for every kid that can really pitch well.

PG we are in agreement. I was just trying to make the point that the kid throwing 88 should not be dimissed out of hand because he hasnt hit 90. Anyone who knows baseball should be able to pick out top 10 draft talent. Its after that that shows what a scout is made of. Let us remember Tom Seaver didnt start throwing really hard  untill a stint in the Marines and  a year at Fresno city college, I think thats where he first went before he was noticed. My point was only this. If a pitcher is getting top talent out it really doesnt matter how he does it. That being said it is not to say he should be a top ten round draft pick but it should ensure him of being seriously considered for a draft slot somewhere. I think sometimes we get so wrapped up in the bells and whistles that we forget what the main purpose is for a pitcher, getting guys out. If that means mowing them down with heat,then so b eit. If it means pitching to contact to get them out then so be that also. It should be the fact that you are getting good hitters out that counts, not some arbitrary number on the gun, that is all that i am trying to say. Not just any hitters but good hitters.

PG's post is 100% accurate.  

 

The young pro pitcher who throws 95+ will eventually come back down to earth more experienced and with better pitches to throw for strikes and more experienced in the game so as he matures he doesn't need all of that speed all of the time. 

 

FWIW, the game is not the same as when the guys you mentioned played. The rules are the same but everything else is different.  

 

I don't understand why people think that those throwing high velocity do not have the tools.

 

 

tpm sorry to disagree with you but the one thing about baseball is that it is the same game. No one said those that throw 95+ do not have tools. I suggest you re-read my post. By your assertation Mays and Mantle could not play today because it is not the same game. Whitey Ford could not pitch and Luis Tiant could not dominate because you must throw 95 to win. Nothing could be further from the truth. You do not have to throw 95 to be successful, period. My point was and always will be is that pitching is about pitching and not about throwing and that guys who are not flamethrowers who are getting guys out should not be overlooked. 

PGStaff laid it out well.  Either you understand what he said...or you don't.  But either way, its still the truth.

Much different.  The mound is different the equipment is different the stadiums are different.  The players are bigger and faster.
What ML pitcher that throws heat doesn't belong on the mound? 
I agree PG laid it out. Believe it or don't.

I actually agree with you both.  You don't need to throw heat to win but you need to throw with enough velocity to even be out there to begin with.

I agree as well, one does not have to throw heat to win or get an opportunity.

 

Just a bit tired of people assuming that velocity doesn't matter, when in fact it does for many, many pitchers at the pro level, especially RHP and very very important.  Of course it just isn't about that.  But who ever said it was?

 

Again, PG laid it out pretty well in fact very well.

 

It's very hard to understand when you see a HS, college pitcher getting people out and winning with their stuff and not one team won't draft them. It just doesn't work that way.  It's hard to understand why but after watching the pro game at the lower level for 6 seasons I understand.

 

 

"True Story"

During our Texas Rangers Area Code team tryout in 1998 at TCU, a 6'5" LHP from Houston was throwing 84-86 MPH.

He did not make the Rangers team and I placed the young man on my '900'

Team. He returns to Houston in September, works hard and adds 8 miles to his fastball.

June the next year he is drafted 1st round by the Expos.

 

Bob

These threads that started years ago are very interesting.  Even from a personal view it's interesting to see if or how your thoughts might have changed over time.  After going back and reading the entire thread I wouldn't change anything.

 

That said we have noticed different years seem to produce different things. While the number of high school kids that can throw 90 seems about the same or increasing slightly each year... The number of mid 90 or higher types seems to fluctuate from year to year.  The 2012 class and 2011 class had an unusually high number of pitchers who could touch 96 or better.  The current 2013 class has very few ( a hand full) high school pitchers that have shown that kind of velocity. 

 

Earlier on in this topic, someone mentioned something about other position players being capable of throwing 90 if they pitched.  This doesn't generally work this way, but we sure saw something amazing this past year.  There was a good prospect (outfielder) from St Louis, very good player, DI prospect as an outfielder.  He had an outstanding arm, but for some reason he had pitch less than 10 innings in his entire life.  His team in  the WWBA Jupiter tournament brought him in to pitch one inning this past October. That one inning became a life changer.  He is now a early round draft prospect as a LHP. He topped out at 94 striking out the side against some very talented hitters.  About a week ago he pitched again in our building in front of most every MLB scouting department. In the middle of winter he once again showed an easy 92-94 fastball with very good command. He didn't show command of the curve ball, but the spin on that pitch was amazing.

 

We still don't know if and when he will develop his secondary pitches, but if he does he has an extremely high ceiling. Right now, I suppose many would describe the kid as a thrower rather than a pitcher.  I would describe him as a great prospect! Unless something strange happens, we will see him drafted in the early rounds.

 

I think it's important to understand that all great prospects don't turn into MLB players. Lots of things can get in the way, it sure isn't easy.  Every time a player is drafted early, the organization is gambling or taking a risk that the player will reach his ceiling.  So when a highest level prospect doesn't make it, people want to say it was a big mistake by the scouts.  Truth is it is seldom a mistake in talent level or potential.  That part (talent) is fairly obvious. Every scout that has been at it for a long time knows he will be wrong at times.

 

My point in all of this... When your job involves predicting the future of another human being... Who you going to bet on... 95 or 85?  Will you be right or wrong more often on the 95 pitcher? Will you be right or wrong more often on the 85 pitcher? I do know that if you get all the 95s and I get all the 85s, I will have to work a ton more seeing pitchers, but you are going to be a much more successful scout than me! Mainly because I will no  longer be a scout despite all my unbelievably hard work.

 

So in the end, it's seldom about what anyone thinks.  It's all about what the decision makers think. For the most part it has been proven that they like Velocity! And they also like everything else that will make them think someone can be successful. I have seen very successful HS pitchers who don't have good velocity. Actually I really enjoy watching them pitch. I know they can pitch at a higher level.  I jut can't kid myself into believing they will pitch in the Big Leagues some day. I'm sure there are guys who could have been good Big League pitchers or hitters if they would have had the opportunity. But that is true in everything.  Lots of people never get the opportunity to do things they might have been very successful at.  Just about all of us, come to think about it. 

 

Sorry for the rant. I kind of like the topic and think it's actually important in a way. After all, we wouldn't want some old man thinking he never made it because nobody ever told him that they prefer kids who can throw the ball hard!

 

Not a rant!  Good stuff!

 

PG - Do you think there's a velocity at which major leaguers begin to look overmatched like HS hitters facing a big time heater?

 

Watching Aroldis Chapman the last couple of years...to me he seems to be able to get big leaguers to swing and miss at 100 mph fastballs out of the zone and look completely overmatched.

 

Is 100 the number for that?  98?

justbaseball,

 

They used to say anything over 96, but things are different these days. Mainly because of how many pitchers that can throw that hard compared to years ago. Hitters tend to hit best against what they see the most often.  Obviously, movement is more important than velocity on most any average fastball.  But there is a point when the velocity alone is very unusual or it looks unusual to the hitter.

 

I think it might be somewhere around 100 where the speed is so unusual that even a straight as an arrow fastball becomes nearly untouchable as long as there is another pitch.  Chapman's slider is scary!  I think it might be even more unhittable than his fastball. I really believe that most hitters who get a hit off of him, feel like they were lucky. Especially if they get a hit off him when he is ahead in the count.

Kind of interesting.

 

I remember Goose Gossage being hard to hit and he threw high 90's.  I know Mariano Rivera is hard to hit and he does not throw that hard.  I've seen guys like Kyle Farnsworth have varying degrees of success but nothing close to what Rivera has seen.  Remember Jason Neighborgal?  I believe he got drafted on velocity alone.  I seem to recall them hitting him pretty hard in the minor leagues but maybe he had arm problems by then.

 

Sometimes it seems like the ball explodes out of someone's hand.  It sneaks up on the hitter before they can get their swing going.  Nolan Ryan, Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax come to mind in that category.  Not many people mention him anymore, but Jim Palmer had some giddy-up on his pitches.  He seemed to throw effortlessly.

 

Good stuff PG!

The cardinals had a young pitcher in AA a few years ago, used as a closer, the team lost many games due to his lack of command but his FB is 100 so no way were they going to ditch him. Two years later he is now on the 40 man roster and in big league camp. They protected him, because with that velocity he would have been drafted last fall in the rule 5 probably the first pick up. No one let's that velocity go.

The Tigers did not resign Valverde, they have a young pitcher whose FB sits at 100 often and he is being groomed as the new Tigers closer.  Interestingly enough, they both share the same last names, look them up, Rondon. 

Rivera has a cutter with movement, it's very deceptive, but keep in mind that he at one time threw much harder than he does now.

There are a few that get drafted high because of their velocity, Neighborgal and Andrew Miller but I think they had different issues to deal with.  Sometimes it just doesn't work out.

Thank you PGStaff.  

 

It seems like I've seen an inning or two when Chapman threw almost nothing by fastballs...all around 100...and hitters looked completely overmatched.  Of course, I'm sure that knowing that slider is there is part of reason. 

Velocity gets you noticed that for sure.  We have a local kid who worked out in front of two scouts last week.  Got on the mound and threw 92, 93, consistenly around 90.  The two scouts where wrote great reports and think he has a great chance to be drafted fairly high.  Based on those two scouting reports and video only the kid had two D-1 and one D-2 offer.  One D-1 offer was 50% to a Pac-12 school.  He verballed to the D-2 school.

 

Now this kid hasn't pitched in a game in 3 years.  He didn't throw one inning all last season for his high school.  Who knows if the kid can actually pitch but velocity alone has him on the radar now.  I have mixed feelings about that.  As a coach I want someone who gets outs and I really don't care how hard or slow he throws.  I've seen plenty of kids who throw hard but get the crap hit out of them.

 

A kid that has that kind of arm is very obvious no matter what position he plays.  We have run across a few of them that simply don't want to pitch. Carlos Correa threw 97 across the infield. We did get him on the mound once, he was 92 I think, but that was the last time he would get on the mound.  He ended up being the first over all pick in the draft as a shortstop.

 

Usually when we see an arm like that and find out he has pitched very little or none at all, it's hard to understand. (unless he is a very top prospect as a position player). Even then you have to wonder why someone along the way didn't utilize an obvious rare talent like that.  The 2013 kid I mentioned earlier has pitched less than 10 innings in his life before last October. He is somewhat of a prospect as an outfielder, but he is now a lefty throwing 94 mph, with more to come.  Went from good prospect outfielder to early round draft prospect as a LHP.

 

I understand why a coach doesn't care how hard someone throws as long as he gets outs and wins games.  That makes a lot of sense!  However, there are thousands of kids that can do that and in the 2013 class there are only two left hand pitchers wthrew have seen throw 94. So the "good" pitcher is far more common than the lefty throwing effortless 92-94.  So if you want to win today, you might go with a good HS pitcher throwing 80 mph. But which one has the best chance of pitching in the Big Leagues? 

 

I think sometimes people get confused by what they see now.  And that is very important!  However, what you see now is never what you will see in the future. Things change at every level. What is good in high school may or may not be good enough in college or pro baseball. But 94 is 94 no matter what the current level is. There are very few lefties in the world capable of that at 17 years old.

I was there that day and seen the whole thing transpire.Scout caught the kid on radar throwing the ball from CF. My son was playing on the field next to them, we were at Miami 6 if I remember correctly.

Not sure I know what Miami 6 is? This was in Jupiter in October at the WWBA World Championship. 

Just thinking, you meant Marlin (Miami) field 6. Yes, that was the place.  

I read this quote attributed to Coach Hubbs of USC, on one of his pitchers and it seemed to really illustrate what PG, justbb, TPM and some others are saying:

"He knows he has to throw the changeup instead of push it, and he's got to throw the cutter," Hubbs said. "He needs to just trust that he can throw it. I think sometimes he tries to just place it. The curveball's more of a slower, change-of-speeds pitch. And the changeup has a chance to be pretty good off his fastball, make his fastball explode to the glove. 

"In high school, he could pitch with predominantly a 90 mph fastball. Now, 90 is average to everybody. Now, a lefty with plus movement and being able to move it in and out, that's what separates him."

 

If a pitcher is 90mph in HS, he can usually limit himself to one pitch and be very successful.  90mph above HS is "average" to every good college  hitter. I think that is a very good way to phrase it.

Put 90 together with 2 other pitches and command and you really have a college/MILB pitcher.

From my view, for every mph below 90, the other pitches, and especially command of the FB with movement,  need to be that much better.  At some point, though, below 85mph or so, it just seems very difficult for even a good pitcher to get good hitters out in college or Milb more than one time through the line up. Good hitters and good scouting reports can make pitching a tougher job when there is less velocity, even if it is coupled with other pitches and command.

As the transition occurs from HS to college/JC/Milb, there is just so much more upside when velocity is part of the equation for a pitcher.

They are going to move him as a starter, should be preeeeettty interesting!

In that role, don't look for him to stick at 100.  I would suspect we'll see 94-96 at first, and when you get to the dog days it might go lower.  Think about the differences in MPH readings put up by, say, John Smoltz in the two different roles.