Umpire thought...

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
I've been reading through the umpires thread and have come across this, or some form of this statement 10 times in my readings (slow day of watching playoffs/nfl)......

"Umpires are right, 95% of the time, get back to me when the players/managers can do their job right that % of the time"

That would be a great thought if their jobs WERE EVEN CLOSE to the same level of difficulty.

Calling balls/strikes when Tim Lincecum is pitching is very hard to do....hitting it is expodentially harder.....

I believe that umpires get it right AT LEAST 95% of the time, but out of those 95%, probably 80% are easy calls.

Not saying it's not an easy job or that they don't by and large do a very good job....but there is room for improvement and maybe if the umpires at the highest level of baseball (not the guys on this site) who have the means and the technology to improve their profession would acknowledge that instead of the same old rank and file....we could move forward.

Food for thought: According to statistics, it is more difficult to get to the majors as an umpire than it is as player. Check out Rick Roder's "The Narrowest Door in Baseball."

Um, that is a huge load of bull. Please don't tell me that you believe it's harder to have the skills to umpire in the MLB than it is to play in the MLB.

If you really believe that, so much is now clear to me.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Um, that is a huge load of bull. Please don't tell me that you believe it's harder to have the skills to umpire in the MLB than it is to play in the MLB.

If you really believe that, so much is now clear to me.

Read my post, carefully. I said nothing about skills.

The stats are there. Check out the book. If you are the sort who will ignore facts to cling to a belief, so much is now clear to me.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Um, that is a huge load of bull. Please don't tell me that you believe it's harder to have the skills to umpire in the MLB than it is to play in the MLB.

If you really believe that, so much is now clear to me.

Its a refernce to available positions...strictly numbers......64 MLB umpires versus 25 players per MLB team.....

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Um, that is a huge load of bull. Please don't tell me that you believe it's harder to have the skills to umpire in the MLB than it is to play in the MLB.

If you really believe that, so much is now clear to me.

Read my post, carefully. I said nothing about skills.

The stats are there. Check out the book. If you are the sort who will ignore facts to cling to a belief, so much is now clear to me.

It must be nice to live in your world, where you are so smart and everyone else is so obviously inferior to you.....just because there are less jobs doesn't mean that it is more difficult to get one of those jobs when there are FAAAAAAAAAAR more kids who dream of playing in the MLB than umpiring there (more competition for jobs)......by your logic being a PA announcer would be harder since there are only 32 of those.

Your arrogance has no bounds......

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Um, that is a huge load of bull. Please don't tell me that you believe it's harder to have the skills to umpire in the MLB than it is to play in the MLB.

If you really believe that, so much is now clear to me.

Read my post, carefully. I said nothing about skills.

The stats are there. Check out the book. If you are the sort who will ignore facts to cling to a belief, so much is now clear to me.

It must be nice to live in your world, where you are so smart and everyone else is so obviously inferior to you.....just because there are less jobs doesn't mean that it is more difficult to get one of those jobs when there are FAAAAAAAAAAR more kids who dream of playing in the MLB than umpiring there (more competition for jobs)......by your logic being a PA announcer would be harder since there are only 32 of those.

Your arrogance has no bounds......

Simnply Amazing. You attack me for citing a statistical fact and providing a source because it doesn't fit with your definition of reality and I'm the arrogant one?

Can we please get past name calling? One of the nice features about this site, for the most part, is the lack of name calling so prevalent on other sites. Please join us in keeping it that way.

While what PIAA has said is part of the equation, it is not the entire story. (There goees your PA announcer theory.)


Other parts of the story include:

Competition: Minor league umpires must stack better agains the competition to be reained than do minor league playerss. Again, this says nothing about comparing levels of skill of umpire vs player, rather it involves level of skill of umpire vs umpire as opposed to player vs. player.

Hard headed dedication:

Umpires, regardless of their standing in their rookie class, receive no bonuses off which they can live for a few years. Their starting pay still, I believe is about $1900 per month for the season. They receive a small annual bump, but basically are paid a very low scale for their duration in the minors, which, if they make it, can easily last 10-13 years. It takes incredible dedication and the willingess to live in a substandard style for years to hang on to that dream and support a family.

Yes, there are players who demonstrate the same level of dedication, but there are also those, for the most part, those most likeley those to succeed, who have the advantage of decent bonus that can be banked and used to assist the player during his travel through the minors. No such system exists for ANY umpire, regardless of skill. The number one rate umpire out of PBUC (their version of the top draft pick) gets nothing financially for being the best. Is some years of heavy MiLB turnover, he may get to skip the rookie leagues and start at short season A

Again, I am not making any claim regarding talent or skill. IT's apples and oranges. No doubt those working their way through the minors as umpires would not make it as players. Equally, I know of four MiLB players who went to umpire proschool after getting relased from their organizations who didn't get a nibble from PBUC. Different skill set, different outlook. I am only reporting that, statistically speaking, it is more unlikely for rookie umpire to make the show than it is for a rookie player.

Now, if you can get past the name calling and open your mind a little to reality, we can have a civil discussion. If not, it was nice knowing you.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Just because there are less jobs doesn't mean that it is more difficult to get one of those jobs when there are FAAAAAAAAAAR more kids who dream of playing in the MLB than umpiring there (more competition for jobs.

There is another aspect to this for umpires.....umpires at the MLB level can have lengthy careers........some 30+ years....there are years when at best the can be 1-2 openings at the MLB level...and other years when there are none.....

Word is there will be three openings this coming year. There were three last year. These have been extraordinary back to back years. There have been many years where there were no openings.

Many AAA umpires have been released after spending up to 15 years in the minors waiting
for an opening that didn't come.

3 openings? Is it too much to ask that CB Bucknor is one of them?

quote:

Originally posted by trojan-skipper:
3 openings? Is it too much to ask that CB Bucknor is one of them?

Unfortunately, yes. He is not on the list.

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Just because there are less jobs doesn't mean that it is more difficult to get one of those jobs when there are FAAAAAAAAAAR more kids who dream of playing in the MLB than umpiring there (more competition for jobs.

There is another aspect to this for umpires.....umpires at the MLB level can have lengthy careers........some 30+ years....there are years when at best the can be 1-2 openings at the MLB level...and other years when there are none.....

Maybe that is a problem? What if they evaluated them obvjectively and the top 45 got to stay each year and the last 20ish were replenished with the top minor league guys......you know like the players/managers earn their jobs year to year.....seems like a good gig, like a college professor.

Maybe knowing there WOULD BE cuts each year would help guys continue to improve in order to keep their great jobs and not have to go back to little money and bus trips from Toledo to Indianapolis all summer.

Note: I have a ton of respect for minor league umpires and what they do to reach their dream.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:


Maybe that is a problem? What if they evaluated them obvjectively and the top 45 got to stay each year and the last 20ish were replenished with the top minor league guys......you know like the players/managers earn their jobs year to year.....seems like a good gig, like a college professor.

Maybe knowing there WOULD BE cuts each year would help guys continue to improve in order to keep their great jobs and not have to go back to little money and bus trips from Toledo to Indianapolis all summer.

Note: I have a ton of respect for minor league umpires and what they do to reach their dream.

Union.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:

quote:

Originally posted by piaa_ump:

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:
Just because there are less jobs doesn't mean that it is more difficult to get one of those jobs when there are FAAAAAAAAAAR more kids who dream of playing in the MLB than umpiring there (more competition for jobs.

There is another aspect to this for umpires.....umpires at the MLB level can have lengthy careers........some 30+ years....there are years when at best the can be 1-2 openings at the MLB level...and other years when there are none.....

Maybe that is a problem? What if they evaluated them obvjectively and the top 45 got to stay each year and the last 20ish were replenished with the top minor league guys

I don't believe a system that would eliminate 20 umpires or any number automatically, regardless of ability and performance record, would be any better than keeping every umpires automatically, regardless of performance record.

It takes three or four years to adjust to MLB. Under your suggestion, at least 75% of the 20 eliminated would be the most recent ones that came in.

quote:

Originally posted by dash_riprock:

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:


Maybe that is a problem? What if they evaluated them obvjectively and the top 45 got to stay each year and the last 20ish were replenished with the top minor league guys......you know like the players/managers earn their jobs year to year.....seems like a good gig, like a college professor.

Maybe knowing there WOULD BE cuts each year would help guys continue to improve in order to keep their great jobs and not have to go back to little money and bus trips from Toledo to Indianapolis all summer.

Note: I have a ton of respect for minor league umpires and what they do to reach their dream.

Union.

It's not the union, it's more on MLB's part.

If umpires were to be able to be demoted, the already small pool of candidates who attend school and go through the minors for a pittance would dry up. For most, the idea of potentially having a fairly good guaranteed paycheck is what motivates them through the system.

For demotion to work, MLB would need to up the payscale in the minors, and have apolitical and impartial evaluators in both MiLB and MLB. That costs money.

Thus, it is more on the part of MLB that the current system is the way it is--they spend relatively little and get a result with which they are comfortable and willing to accept.

If you want a little perspective, I've done the math on what I make doing baseball here vs. AA. I make between $70-$105 a game. If my wife would allow it, I could realistically make about $2400 (and potentially even more) a month, about the same as a second-year AA umpire. Plus, I can have my own career (which pays better than MiLB) and I can sleep in my own bed (or couch, depending on her mood) every night. From a strictly cost-benefit analysis, there is no incentive for someone like me to umpire anywhere else but locally.

More intangibly, I can umpire on (generally) my own terms. I don't need to umpire to feed myself (or my family.) If I get burned out, I can take some time off. If, and this happens to everyone, the time comes where I am no longer an asset, I can hang up the mask with no worries.

Keep in mind, this is all under the current system. Why would anyone in their right mind even try to become a professional umpire without an incentive of a guaranteed job at the top?

quote:

Why would anyone in their right mind even try to become a professional umpire without an incentive of a guaranteed job at the top?

the same reason players do it........love.

quote:

Originally posted by 20dad:
the same reason players do it........love.

Between the players and umpires I know, love is not the motivating factor. Yes, they may love baseball, but that's not why they do what they do.

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:
It's not the union, it's more on MLB's part.

If umpires were to be able to be demoted, the already small pool of candidates who attend school and go through the minors for a pittance would dry up. For most, the idea of potentially having a fairly good guaranteed paycheck is what motivates them through the system.

For demotion to work, MLB would need to up the payscale in the minors, and have apolitical and impartial evaluators in both MiLB and MLB. That costs money.

Thus, it is more on the part of MLB that the current system is the way it is--they spend relatively little and get a result with which they are comfortable and willing to accept.

If you want a little perspective, I've done the math on what I make doing baseball here vs. AA. I make between $70-$105 a game. If my wife would allow it, I could realistically make about $2400 (and potentially even more) a month, about the same as a second-year AA umpire. Plus, I can have my own career (which pays better than MiLB) and I can sleep in my own bed (or couch, depending on her mood) every night. From a strictly cost-benefit analysis, there is no incentive for someone like me to umpire anywhere else but locally.

More intangibly, I can umpire on (generally) my own terms. I don't need to umpire to feed myself (or my family.) If I get burned out, I can take some time off. If, and this happens to everyone, the time comes where I am no longer an asset, I can hang up the mask with no worries.

Keep in mind, this is all under the current system. Why would anyone in their right mind even try to become a professional umpire without an incentive of a guaranteed job at the top?

The chances of making it to the majors is ridiculously slim. Like starting out in the mailroom at GM and making it to CEO in 15 years (ok maybe that's a bad example).

I don't think the movement policy suggested by bsb would deter new candidates very much, if at all. They know they will make jack squat money for a long time and VERY likely never make it to the bigs. But if they do, I bet all of them would have the attitude: "There's no way I'll ever be in the bottom 20."

The bottom line is, the union would ever agree to it.

quote:

Originally posted by dash_riprock:

I don't think the movement policy suggested by bsb would deter new candidates very much, if at all. They know they will make jack squat money for a long time and VERY likely never make it to the bigs. But if they do, I bet all of them would have the attitude: "There's no way I'll ever be in the bottom 20."

The bottom line is, the union would ever agree to it.

I've gotta disagree with part of this Dash. Every MiLB umpire I know from Long Season A up to AAA understands that the learning curve continues once they get the call. Their own estimates are "3 to 5" years to get comfortable and "possibly" break the top half.

I agree with your assessment that the union would have major heartburn over it, but MLB has proven it is willing to break the union if necessary. If MLB really wanted such a system, they would have it, and if that meant losing half the current umpires, wel, heck, that just speeds up the process.

Matt13 is right. if you read Bruce Weber's "As the See 'em" he quotes both MiLB and MLB administrators admitting that umpires, to them, are basically just a necessary expense that needs to be controlled to have a little financial impact as possible on the leagues and the teams. They are gettting what they are willing to pay for.

I see what you are saying about "always cutting the bottom ___% of guys"....maybe it should be those rated under a certain score I certainly would be open to hearing other ideas on that one.

However, teh PGA tour does it that way and I think if you kept umpires up to speed throughout the year as to where they stood you would see guys working very hard at their craft to "make the cut"

Think of the PGA guys who bust it to make a cut, or finish top 50, etc....that is where the real competition is....

Just a thought.

There is no need for mental gymnastics. There is a mechanism in place to replace umpires who perform unsatisfactorily.

This reminds of the mindset people have about teachers. The days of untouchable teachers has long been over. Old style "tenure" is a myth today. But it does take management with balls and determination to do the right thing. In many areas, that is lacking.

Same in baseball. If MLB truly wanted to shed an umpire, it can. It has before.

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:
There is no need for mental gymnastics. There is a mechanism in place to replace umpires who perform unsatisfactorily.

This reminds of the mindset people have about teachers. The days of untouchable teachers has long been over. Old style "tenure" is a myth today. But it does take management with balls and determination to do the right thing. In many areas, that is lacking.

Same in baseball. If MLB truly wanted to shed an umpire, it can. It has before.

I honestly have no clue if/how MLB can/does replace umpires....I can however gurantee you that there are still tenured professors.

quote:

Originally posted by 20dad:

quote:

Why would anyone in their right mind even try to become a professional umpire without an incentive of a guaranteed job at the top?

the same reason players do it........love.

If the players did it for the love of baseball then Teixeira would be playing for the Orioles.

quote:

Originally posted by bsballfan:

quote:

Originally posted by Jimmy03:
There is no need for mental gymnastics. There is a mechanism in place to replace umpires who perform unsatisfactorily.

This reminds of the mindset people have about teachers. The days of untouchable teachers has long been over. Old style "tenure" is a myth today. But it does take management with balls and determination to do the right thing. In many areas, that is lacking.

Same in baseball. If MLB truly wanted to shed an umpire, it can. It has before.

I honestly have no clue if/how MLB can/does replace umpires....I can however gurantee you that there are still tenured professors.

I was referring to high school. Teachers prior to tenure, usually their first two years, can be released without cause, after tenure they can be released with cause. At least in the three states I've taught.

OK... I know generally that there is a period of time that a guy in AAA will bounce back and forth (filling in)between AAA and MLB at least for a few years up to maybe 8 .... is that not the time you are evaluated and then either given a number or told "thanks for coming out" with a pat on the back?

So guys going from AAA to MLB don't generally just get moved up (I think) without a few years moving up and down, and going through an evaluation period in the BIGS, this would also includes Spring training...

I only know a few guys in MLB and the Minors and they understand that once you get a number your in but getting there you are under a microscope...

Again my 2 cents...

quote:

Originally posted by TX-Ump74:
OK... I know generally that there is a period of time that a guy in AAA will bounce back and forth (filling in)between AAA and MLB at least for a few years up to maybe 8 .... is that not the time you are evaluated and then either given a number or told "thanks for coming out" with a pat on the back?

So guys going from AAA to MLB don't generally just get moved up (I think) without a few years moving up and down, and going through an evaluation period in the BIGS, this would also includes Spring training...

I only know a few guys in MLB and the Minors and they understand that once you get a number your in but getting there you are under a microscope...

Again my 2 cents...

Getting a number means only that you're in the group from which vacation and injury relief umpires are drawn. Within that group is a ranking. The top two will end up working more MLB than AAA. The bottom few may only get a handful of opportunties. Some may get none.

Depending on need, promotions to the Majors can go beyond those couple working nearly full time Majors. On the negative side, depending on projections even "call-ups" with a lot of ML experience can get released. There is always more than 200 guys behind you getting better and waiting for their chance. Most are also younger, although ageism is a secret no one mentions in MLB. Without promotions, releases are required to keep the troops moving. There have been cases of MiLB umpires with 15 years in, three of which included being a call-up, who have been released.

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:
and I can sleep in my own bed (or couch, depending on her mood) every night.

If you umpired enough to make $2,400 a month in local games, I think you'll be spending a lot of time on the couch.

quote:

Originally posted by yawetag:

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:
and I can sleep in my own bed (or couch, depending on her mood) every night.

If you umpired enough to make $2,400 a month in local games, I think you'll be spending a lot of time on the couch.

I find myself on the couch whether I umpire or not, it seems.

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:

quote:

Originally posted by yawetag:

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:
and I can sleep in my own bed (or couch, depending on her mood) every night.

If you umpired enough to make $2,400 a month in local games, I think you'll be spending a lot of time on the couch.

I find myself on the couch whether I umpire or not, it seems.

Another stat being developed...the percentage of MiLB umpires who marry and then are divorced, released or quit within two years is anecdotally staggering. I understand some real numbers may be forthcoming.

quote:

Originally posted by Matt13:
I find myself on the couch whether I umpire or not, it seems.

and I thought that only happened to me........so if I'm on the couch if I umpire or not.......then I'm umpiring....