Your Observations About Lingering Impact of COVID Period

From someone who has been in recruiting mode since 2018 my short answer is:

If you are a seller, it's a harder sale.

If you are a buyer, no change.

Covid caused many athletes to rethink their priorities.

2022s had it the worst.

Slightly longer version:

The covid impact is winding down and should be completely flushed by 2025, so today's HS sophomores and younger won't see much effect, if any.

The ability to transfer without waiting is longer-lasting and more impactful in my view: all programs can now be seen as the P5 minor leagues in some respect, resulting in a higher hurdle for incoming P5 freshman looking to make an impact.

For baseball specifically and P5 mostly, there is also a headwind from the reduced number of draft rounds. This is also longer-lasting than covid.

I would say they are all related.  The draft shortening was a result of Covid and not going away, the reduction of MiLB teams was a result of Covid, the portal transfer was a result of Covid, and the extra years were a result of Covid.  Only one of them will go away and that will be for another year.

I had a 2022 family member go through it. Pretty typical. Had a good D1 offer before COVID. Was informed they were going in a different direction during the fall of his senior year. More related to transfers than 5th year guys in his case.

Obviously, the extra year(s), the transfer waiver, and the MLB Draft to a lesser extent... all combined to open many coaches' eyes to the benefit of scouting players with experience and/or a track record. That is the part that will linger (supported by the immediate transfer waiver).
IMO, baseball in general is a sport that is slow to change. There's a lot of "it's always been done this way for a reason" thinking. Many coaches who were used to recruiting and pursuing high school kids realized that transfers were a safer and often less expensive bet. I haven't looked for the stats, but I'm guessing that the number of transfers (juco and others) on D1 rosters took a jump during Covid and it won't go back to pre-Covid levels unless the transfer rules change again.

I was just looking at a P5 2023 roster where 18 of the 42 players listed were transfers - juco and 4yr.  But I seem to remember before covid, when my son was being recruited, there were teams where 80% of the upperclassmen were transfers, they tended to be D2 or lower-level D1, but also P5.

Maybe the difference is, back then a school with upperclass transfers would still have 15 freshmen, most of whom would be gone by junior year, now they are taking fewer freshmen?

@anotherparent posted:

I was just looking at a P5 2023 roster where 18 of the 42 players listed were transfers - juco and 4yr.  But I seem to remember before covid, when my son was being recruited, there were teams where 80% of the upperclassmen were transfers, they tended to be D2 or lower-level D1, but also P5.

Maybe the difference is, back then a school with upperclass transfers would still have 15 freshmen, most of whom would be gone by junior year, now they are taking fewer freshmen?

I could be wrong, but I think it's just more prevalent now. There were always some schools with lots of transfers, but I think more schools are doing that now. Especially, D1 schools. That was also happening pre-Covid when a new coach took over, but usually those guys still recruited high school kids.

1. 1@PitchingFan posted:

I would say they are all related.  The draft shortening was a result of Covid and not going away, the reduction of MiLB teams was a result of Covid, the portal transfer was a result of Covid, and the extra years were a result of Covid.  Only one of them will go away and that will be for another year.

The serious discussion to reduce the number of minor league teams started in 2019, before Covid.

The decision to reduce the draft to five rounds occurred in early May 2020. Obviously, it’s related to Covid. On the same day it was announced the draft would be shortened permanently. Covid wasn’t an issue until they end of March. No way, no how MLB decided between March 20 and May 11 they were going to shorten the draft long term. It was probably discussed at the same time as reducing the number of minor league teams.

I think someone recently posted more current information than this. But, several years ago I knew the numbers to be 84% of drafted American players come from rounds 1-10. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. Twenty rounds makes sense. Anyone drafted after round 20 is a long shot (6%) to make the majors. I’m guessing most of those 6% are pitchers who increased their velocity or control/command.

@RJM posted:

The serious discussion to reduce the number of minor league teams started in 2019, before Covid.

The decision to reduce the draft to five rounds occurred in early May 2020. Obviously, it’s related to Covid. On the same day it was announced the drafted would be shortened permanently. Covid wasn’t an issue until they end of March. No way, no how MLB decided between March 20 and May 11 they were going to shorten the draft long term. It was probably discussed at the same time as reducing the number of minor league teams.

I think someone recently posted more current information than this. But, several years ago I knew the numbers to be 84% of drafted American players come from rounds 1-10. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. Twenty rounds makes sense. Anyone drafted after round 20 is a long shot (6%) to make the majors. I’m guessing most of those 6% are pitchers who increased their velocity or control/command.

^ yep.

No-wait transfers were allowed before covid in certain sports. July 2021 was when no-wait went into effect for all sports.

@MidAtlanticDad posted:

I could be wrong, but I think it's just more prevalent now. There were always some schools with lots of transfers, but I think more schools are doing that now. Especially, D1 schools. That was also happening pre-Covid when a new coach took over, but usually those guys still recruited high school kids.

Here are the preliminary number of incoming transfers based on 2022 fall rosters

Here is the split between 4yr and juco

The guesswork has been removed CBI Team Roster Turnover Dashboard  provides the annual turnover for every college baseball program.

@RJM posted:

The serious discussion to reduce the number of minor league teams started in 2019, before Covid.

The decision to reduce the draft to five rounds occurred in early May 2020. Obviously, it’s related to Covid. On the same day it was announced the draft would be shortened permanently. Covid wasn’t an issue until they end of March. No way, no how MLB decided between March 20 and May 11 they were going to shorten the draft long term. It was probably discussed at the same time as reducing the number of minor league teams.

I think someone recently posted more current information than this. But, several years ago I knew the numbers to be 84% of drafted American players come from rounds 1-10. Another 10% come from rounds 11-20. Twenty rounds makes sense. Anyone drafted after round 20 is a long shot (6%) to make the majors. I’m guessing most of those 6% are pitchers who increased their velocity or control/command.

I understand the discussion part but it had been going on for 7 years.  Covid was the opportunity for it to happen.  In my line of work, Covid was the chance for churches or church leadership to make the changes they had wanted to make.  
When we came back from Covid, our music style and our dress changed.  We have been discussing for a while, how to make it happen, and Covid just allowed it to happen with no conflict.  

In my limited interactions, I find the 2023s are having it worse for recruitment than 2022s. My son's HA D3 has 3 D1 transfers, a first for this school.  

@2022NYC posted:

In my limited interactions, I find the 2023s are having it worse for recruitment than 2022s. My son's HA D3 has 3 D1 transfers, a first for this school.  

I think you are right. 

From what I saw the 2022s, most of whom were recruited via video, were the most likely to be de-committed when things loosened up in their senior year.

Makes sense that the 2023s would be most impacted by the extra year, portal, draft, etc. once enrolled.

@2022NYC posted:

In my limited interactions, I find the 2023s are having it worse for recruitment than 2022s. My son's HA D3 has 3 D1 transfers, a first for this school.  

Seeing the same.

Everyone using the portal now.

@SpeedDemon posted:

Seeing the same.

Everyone using the portal now.

Not everybody.  Case by Case.  A coach might get 1 or 2 based on positional needs

Incoming class for San Diego State

Florida state

Here is a quick snapshot

Big Ten 2022 Fall

Pac-12

I think that the transfering due to covid will slow down in a few years when the athletes who lost years playing will have moved on.

Although Covid changed the landscape, the NCAA allowing transfers to play right away is, IMO, the game changer. So is NIL and the ability for many prospects to transfer to get better draft exposure at better programs.

@SpeedDemon posted:

From someone who has been in recruiting mode since 2018 my short answer is:

If you are a seller, it's a harder sale.

If you are a buyer, no change.

Covid caused many athletes to rethink their priorities.

2022s had it the worst.

Slightly longer version:

The covid impact is winding down and should be completely flushed by 2025, so today's HS sophomores and younger won't see much effect, if any.

The ability to transfer without waiting is longer-lasting and more impactful in my view: all programs can now be seen as the P5 minor leagues in some respect, resulting in a higher hurdle for incoming P5 freshman looking to make an impact.

For baseball specifically and P5 mostly, there is also a headwind from the reduced number of draft rounds. This is also longer-lasting than covid.

Having a 2024 son in the recruiting process now, I only have a post Covid perspective to share.   I agree with you, that for a 2024 player, Covid is less of an issue than the free transfer portal.   I sat among a group of about ten parents as a P5 coach was giving us a speech about recruiting while they had a prospect camp taking place.   In his discussion, the topic of transfer portal was brought up and he gave us a very honest answer.   He basically told us that the transfer portal absolutely hurts your kids chances of getting an offer at their program and it is a trickle down effect throughout College baseball at all levels.   

He told us to look at things from his perspective.  He can sign a high school 2024 pitcher that has a ton of potential and very projectable, but the kid is going to enroll as a freshman and will be an 18 year old kid with a lot of work and growth necessary to really impact their program.   On the other hand, he can persuade someone that caught his eye this past season in a midweek game to transfer to their program and they will enter as a 20 year old man with two or more years of D1 experience.   

He also spoke of the trickle down effect from the P5 program decisions.   The players that the P5 pass on in order to use the transfer portal, now fall to a Mid-major program, and pushes those players that they would have signed to D2 etc... etc....    He also brought up the issue of high school players not just competing with their piers for roster spots, but also all of the players in the transfer portal.  So, a kid that is a Jr. in High school that would normally be a mid to low level D1 prospect may not get that offer because the Mid to Low level D1 team is going to take the guy that is leaving the P5 program due to lack of playing time.   

Ultimately, it is more difficult for high school players to get College offers today than in years past.