Can you explain how a player knows he is "middle of the pack"? I was following all my son's freshman friends this year; some P5 players were obviously not at the top, as they were cut after fall ball. Of the mid-majors, some have played, most have not - and now, of course, will not. Is it how much/if they have offered baseball money? Something else?
A parent at my son's school was just diagnosed with COVID-19. The parent was on campus last week and met with a teacher. In-person classes had already been suspended (and have been statewide). Not a cause of anxiety IMO, except that it means the virus is known to be present locally and so things are going to continue to get weirder. Some elderly relatives are feeling pretty anxious though.
adbono posted:RJM posted:Had my son been in this situation I would have encouraged him to think mid major. It’s hard enough to earn opportunities as a middle of the pack freshman prospect and prove yourself. It will be harder next year.
Amyone who is middle of the pack at the level they would normally target might want to think about targeting down a level.
This!
Agree!
anotherparent posted:Can you explain how a player knows he is "middle of the pack"? I was following all my son's freshman friends this year; some P5 players were obviously not at the top, as they were cut after fall ball. Of the mid-majors, some have played, most have not - and now, of course, will not. Is it how much/if they have offered baseball money? Something else?
My opinion; In general, the offer is what the school thinks a player will be worth to them. And that is at the time of the offer. They are not always right, and circumstances change. Plenty of caveats.
If your son believes, stay the course. Just because a wave broke over the gunwale doesn't mean jumping into the sea is a better option.
Every kid's circumstance will vary. As soon as UIL cancels the spring season, son said he will call pitching coach and turn himself over to their guidance for workouts, throwing program, etc.
Announcement from the state of MA giving me hope on spring sports: MIAA Board of Directors vote for an April 27 start date with the hopes of completing the championships by June 20 (June 21 in the event of rain).
Our school district just extended the suspension of "normal operations" to April 10th.
That's Fort Bend ISD, a suburb of Houston. This was shortly after a regional meeting of Superintendents. I expect other extensions in our area to be announced shortly.
We are until April 6th. Really hope we are able to finish the season.
baseballhs posted:We are until April 6th. Really hope we are able to finish the season.
I wouldn’t count on it, based on other things that happened in major Texas cities today.
Was just told son will be scrimmaging Wednesday through Friday this week as they are still practicing. It’s the little things that bring joy during week one of this!
anotherparent posted:Can you explain how a player knows he is "middle of the pack"? I was following all my son's freshman friends this year; some P5 players were obviously not at the top, as they were cut after fall ball. Of the mid-majors, some have played, most have not - and now, of course, will not. Is it how much/if they have offered baseball money? Something else?
In our experience, college coaches at mid major level have not been particularly accurate with predicting how a player will turn out. I would look at your son’s measurables and compare with other committed players. Then take it a step further. Go to some games with your kid. Look at the speed of the game. Can your player compete, right now? How does he measure up to the guys that are pitching and hitting at the game you are watching? What does your son think about how he compares? Would he be excited to have the opportunity to compete in the game you are watching? How close does HE think he is? How fast is he right now as a Jr/Sr? How athletic is he? Is he fully grown? Look at the best players in the conference he wants to compete in. And, has he played against the best pitchers in the country at his age level? How did he do? There are many things to think about.
baseballhs posted:We are until April 6th. Really hope we are able to finish the season.
It’s over in Texas. Sad to say. They won’t be going back to school, either.
Was hoping to see you guys in Round Rock. Losing in state finals hurt last year, but there was next year to look forward to. The core of our team were juniors. We are better team this year.
Kimb27 posted:Was just told son will be scrimmaging Wednesday through Friday this week as they are still practicing. It’s the little things that bring joy during week one of this!
That is honestly kind of shocking to hear. I haven't heard of any HS teams continuing to practice for at least the next two weeks.
Go44dad posted:baseballhs posted:We are until April 6th. Really hope we are able to finish the season.
It’s over in Texas. Sad to say. They won’t be going back to school, either.
Was hoping to see you guys in Round Rock. Losing in state finals hurt last year, but there was next year to look forward to. The core of our team were juniors. We are better team this year.
Yeah, I fear that it is over. Ranked #2 in 5a. As a soph, he'll have a couple more shots, but realistically, this was the best. Went through it with older son being 6 inches away from RR in sophomore year, and never getting that close again. Hate this for all the boys.
Fitting that everything is cancelled on the first day of tryouts. KInd of sucks. 57Special jr. has worked hard this winter, and couldn't wait to strut his stuff for new coach. I have my doubts that the season will ever get started. Maybe it's better this way, rather than having a season interrupted like the folks down south. Will be awful for the seniors, though.
DBAT-DFW posted:57special posted:JSKelley posted:Chico Escuela posted:If anyone here has a HS sports season outright cancelled, please post to let everyone know. Momentum seems to be building for colleges (D3s anyhow) to take this step. I'm about 70% expecting my son's senior HS baseball season to be shut down in the next few weeks. (Not recommending that; it's just starting to seem likely.)
People have lost their minds. Way overreacting. This will all be gone in a month in warm weather states and probably two months for cold weather states. You all can remind me in July if I am wrong.
And what is your training and/or education to back up such an opinion?
Ironic that you are questioning the "minds" of medical and public health professionals. My wife is one of the former, is already overworked, and is working in chaotic conditions. Pray that you or your family don't have to be seen by her in the near future. Testing is near nonexistent, training is haphazard, protocols sporadically executed, and Negative pressure rooms and respirator time getting very hard to find.
Thousands are likely to die. Just hope it's not tens of thousands. With the lack of testing, we don't have a clear idea how many have died already.
Hey, but if you get one more game in, that's all that matters, right?
Oh I don’t know, maybe because of HISTORY. This situation isn’t any different than Swine Flu (H1N1), Severe Cute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Bird Flu (H5N1, Anthrax, and on and on. You know what all those have in common? Not canceling NCAA basketball, baseball, softball, NBA, MLB, NHL, and on and on. I mean, it’s a virus, not an incurable disease. If you’re compromised already (old, young, poor health) by all means skip the ball game, or the cruise, or the flight....otherwise we are all fairly safe. I’ve had the flu before. I’ll probably get it again. And each time will be a different strain...because it actually has to be. You can’t get the same strain twice. So thanks for playing into the mass hysteria. I bet you have $1000 worth or toilet paper at home right now too.
This post has not aged well.
What part about July are you having a hard time understanding? After this panic is all over you can apologize to me. I stand by my original post fully. If you want to overreact it doesn’t matter to me, but don’t expect me to listen to all this chicken little doomsday nonsense. It’s the flu. Happens every year. And just like any other flu, some people may die from it. It’s already passed in China so much so that they have closed ALL of their COVID-19 dedicated hospitals. Come on man.
DBAT-DFW posted:What part about July are you having a hard time understanding? After this panic is all over you can apologize to me. I stand by my original post fully. If you want to overreact it doesn’t matter to me, but don’t expect me to listen to all this chicken little doomsday nonsense. It’s the flu. Happens every year. And just like any other flu, some people may die from it. It’s already passed in China so much so that they have closed ALL of their COVID-19 dedicated hospitals. Come on man.
The problem is that it's hard to figure out if we overreacted but it would be easy to see if we have under reacted half a year or a year down the road.
Believe me, I keep asking myself how the scenario would have played out if the government treated this just like a flu (with just more warnings about washing hands and being more careful than normal).
But then, I look at what happened in Italy. It's not the total number, but it's the total number over a short period of time that is inundating them. Would approaching it this way result in more people treating their illness like a flu (i.e. just staying at home and letting it pass) as opposed to rushing to the hospital? Is this what happened in Italy?
Hearing first hand stories from my nurse friends about people in hospital for totally different reasons (i.e. digestive or intestinal issues) are demanding to be tested (unnecessarily) for covid bec they are in the hospital already and the government officials say that whoever wants a test can get one makes me wonder more if this is the case.
But if the doctors in Italy are having to make triage decision and letting certain people die, then the people in the hospitals really needed to be in the hospital to begin with... So I go around and around in circles and come back to my first sentence above.
It's over in China because they shut their entire country down, and enforced it. Are you quarantining yourself, and telling everyone else to do so? Because if not, then it's not going to go away for us the way it went away for China. We will be more like Italy, where they tried to ask people to distance but no-one paid attention. That's the whole point.
We can't win with you; if we do "overreact" and manage to shut down sufficiently and it is over in July, will that have proven your point?
DBAT-DFW posted:What part about July are you having a hard time understanding? After this panic is all over you can apologize to me. I stand by my original post fully. If you want to overreact it doesn’t matter to me, but don’t expect me to listen to all this chicken little doomsday nonsense. It’s the flu. Happens every year. And just like any other flu, some people may die from it. It’s already passed in China so much so that they have closed ALL of their COVID-19 dedicated hospitals. Come on man.
If it's just like the flu, how many flu dedicated hospitals did they have? Yeah, zero. I mean this in the nicest possible way but you sir are being a dumbass.
Since China is your benchmark let's use the numbers from China. There are two factors in play here that are very much intertwined. How infectious the virus is and how deadly the virus is, you can compare both to the flu. The R0 for Novel Corona is roughly 2.3, where flu is 1.3. This means for every infected person they infect, on average, about 2 other people where the flu they infect about 1 other person. Basically the virus spreads twice as fast as flu.
Flu has a hospitalization rate of less than 10%, Covid-19 is trending close to 20%. Flu death rate is about .1% and Covid-19 is about 2.3%
So, it spreads twice as fast and is an order of magnitude more deadly with a significant number more severe cases needing hospital treatment vs flu. All of that is a recipe for overwhelming the healthcare system which leads to a triage scenario. Medical teams basically deciding who to treat with the available resources and who to let die. If you don't think that happened in China and is currently happening in Italy you are wrong.
So how is China on the back side of this now? They are a totalitarian Communist country and they absolutely locked down whole areas of the country, millions of people, under penalty of arrest or death.
We don't do that in the free world so we are dependent upon our neighbors not being dumbasses. If this is behind us in July it will be in spite of people like you, not because Covid-19 is a case of the sniffles as you want to believe. Social distancing and self quarantine are needed to slow down the spread so that more people don't need treatment at the same time than we have the capacity to treat. Look online at the people speaking out from Italy via social media and they will absolutely tell you that they wished they had taken it more seriously.
Eokerholm posted:
Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
atlnon posted:DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
DBAT-DFW posted:You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
What would my agenda be? I'm just trying hard to understand what's happening. Like I told you, I've gone through all these questions myself (and I'm still asking questions). I would love it (thrilled actually) if you can help me see and realize that this virus is really not that serious.
Re Italy, so do they not get the seasonal flu? Since we are comparing it to the seasonal flu, why would they not be affected this seriously with the seasonal flu?
DBAT-DFW posted:atlnon posted:DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
Pssst, hey know it all.....you just replied to a healthcare analyst lecturing him on the capability of various healthcare systems😂😂😂
22and25 posted:DBAT-DFW posted:atlnon posted:DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
Pssst, hey know it all.....you just replied to a healthcare analyst lecturing him on the capability of various healthcare systems😂😂😂
and just to clarify, in case you were wondering, or curious, I have 3 Master's Degrees in the field and over 25 years experience in the field of healthcare, business intelligence, and analytics.... so I kinda know what I'm talking about. But you make your apple sauce or orange juice with your apples and oranges and have a nice day.
Please don't forget to wash your hands before you leave the house.
On the Italy point:
Italy has roughly 60 million people total. Their largest age bracket is 45 to 55. They may have an older average age, due more to low birth rates than a huge number of older citizens, they have roughly 13 million people over 65. The US has roughly 49 million people over 65. We have 70 plus million baby boomers, that is more people 55 and older in the US than the entire population of Italy. It could be that our death rate ends up higher both by number and percentages than Italy based on the number of Americans in this vulnerable age bracket if we don't do a much better job of slowing infection rates.
As for Italy's healthcare, they rank 3rd in the world in number of critical care beds per capita behind only Germany and the US. To assume our superior healthcare capacity is enough to treat 4 times the vulnerbale population is a stretch.
Not to mention our world leading rate of comorbidites such as diabetes and heart disease that impact the death rate from Covid-19 dramatically.
The prevalence of CVD, Diabetes and hypertension are all way higher in the US than in Italy too.
Eokerholm posted:22and25 posted:DBAT-DFW posted:atlnon posted:DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
Pssst, hey know it all.....you just replied to a healthcare analyst lecturing him on the capability of various healthcare systems😂😂😂
and just to clarify, in case you were wondering, or curious, I have 3 Master's Degrees in the field and over 25 years experience in the field of healthcare, business intelligence, and analytics.... so I kinda know what I'm talking about. But you make your apple sauce or orange juice with your apples and oranges and have a nice day.
Please don't forget to wash your hands before you leave the house.
I never said don’t take normal flu precautions. I just think it’s completely ridiculous, even by your numbers, that the different between normal life (.1%) and hiding locked inside your home (2%) for months on end (basically however long the flu season is) is worth it. Crazy.
DBAT-DFW posted:I never said don’t take normal flu precautions. I just think it’s completely ridiculous, even by your numbers, that the different between normal life (.1%) and hiding locked inside your home (2%) for months on end (basically however long the flu season is) is worth it. Crazy.
2 - 0.1 = 1.9%. Multiply that by your local population. Then count the ventilators in your local hospital (and the doctors and nurses). It's as simple as that.
Population of 5000 people: it's a difference between 5 and 100 people.
It isn't months on end if people would actually and effectively quarantine. This virus does not have any legs and can't transport itself. Anyone can be a vector. Anyone you come in contact with can be a vector.
Stay home 2 weeks and it shuts itself down. It has nowhere to go, because it can't get there on it's own. , We're at the tail end of typical flu season. Temperatures and daily Sun are on the rise with Spring weather, But vector movement will lengthen the pandemic.
But you and the anit-vaxxers can disagree with science and data all you want, go ahead - keeping going out, get infected, give this thing legs, and draw this out longer than it needs to be. We'll ALL wait.
Really cool viral simulator.
This could have been under control in weeks with efficient quarantines.
DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:22and25 posted:DBAT-DFW posted:atlnon posted:DBAT-DFW posted:Eokerholm posted:Looks like a good thing the U.S. isn’t Italy then. Apples to oranges if you ask me.
Good point. We do have completely different genes and anatomy than the Italians.
You know what we do have? A completely different median age and health care system...but by all means, please ignore that data to suit your agenda.
Pssst, hey know it all.....you just replied to a healthcare analyst lecturing him on the capability of various healthcare systems😂😂😂
and just to clarify, in case you were wondering, or curious, I have 3 Master's Degrees in the field and over 25 years experience in the field of healthcare, business intelligence, and analytics.... so I kinda know what I'm talking about. But you make your apple sauce or orange juice with your apples and oranges and have a nice day.
Please don't forget to wash your hands before you leave the house.
I never said don’t take normal flu precautions. I just think it’s completely ridiculous, even by your numbers, that the different between normal life (.1%) and hiding locked inside your home (2%) for months on end (basically however long the flu season is) is worth it. Crazy.
That is a factor of 20....60,000 people died of flu in the US last year. 20×60,000 is 1.2 million deaths. I mean damn, let's not all be inconvenienced like the Chinese you used as an example just to keep an extra million plus of our fellow Americans alive🙄
Y'all should focus the energy on Twitter.
There are A TON of D2-3s, JUCOs posting up on Twitter how they have openings and need for 2020s.
Get your videos posted and working.
DBAT-DFW posted:I just think it’s completely ridiculous, even by your numbers, that the different between normal life (.1%) and hiding locked inside your home (2%) for months on end (basically however long the flu season is) is worth it.
I'm speechless. Either you don't really value 1 million lives at all or you don't know how to do simple math. And the calculation of 1 million additional death is just taking into account the 1% mortality rate. It doesn't take into consideration the increased R0 rate (meaning more people will be infected compared to the flu) and the increased collateral damage with a large volume of people going to the hospital at once (meaning people will die that would have otherwise lived bec of the overcapacity of our healthcare system). You can begin to imagine how much worse it can be.
Does anyone know what the Texas UIL rule is for practicing with your showcase team while the season is technically not canceled yet? Saw on Twitter that one of the local organizations held a practice today for some of their high school players. We have a friend in that organization so want to make sure he doesn’t face any issues if somehow the high school resumes at some point.
ARCEKU21 posted:Does anyone know what the Texas UIL rule is for practicing with your showcase team while the season is technically not canceled yet? Saw on Twitter that one of the local organizations held a practice today for some of their high school players. We have a friend in that organization so want to make sure he doesn’t face any issues if somehow the high school resumes at some point.
The Texas HS season isn’t going to resume so I wouldn’t worry about it. But to answer your question the UIL rule states that HS players are not allowed to practice with their Summer team until their HS team has completed their season.
I am going hang on real hard to hope for a baseball season for my kid. This is not the flu. There is no approved therapeutic, vaccine, just a vent and meds if you struggle to breathe until a month from now when we run out of vents. History will judge the decisions our local and fed govt made. I sincerely hope it was an exaggeration, but the models and expert opinion leads me to think this may be too little to late.
adbono posted:ARCEKU21 posted:Does anyone know what the Texas UIL rule is for practicing with your showcase team while the season is technically not canceled yet? Saw on Twitter that one of the local organizations held a practice today for some of their high school players. We have a friend in that organization so want to make sure he doesn’t face any issues if somehow the high school resumes at some point.
The Texas HS season isn’t going to resume so I wouldn’t worry about it. But to answer your question the UIL rule states that HS players are not allowed to practice with their Summer team until their HS team has completed their season.
I tend to agree, but the UIL keeps giving people that last bit of hope when they release a statement saying that they intend to finish the state basketball championships and spring sports at some point.
Looks like the governor of Florida has said parents have the option of having their child repeat this grade year. Will be interesting to see how they will handle athletics with this option.
ARCEKU21 posted:Looks like the governor of Florida has said parents have the option of having their child repeat this grade year. Will be interesting to see how they will handle athletics with this option.
Why in the Hell? 60 days of instruction left.....distance learning could easily take care of those as well as snow/weather days to eat a week off.
That's just plain stupid. Not enough portables to take on the class load. Pollutes the recruiting pool as well for coming years....
I'm sure the Helicopter parents are rejoicing!
CIAC, which "runs" Connecticut HS sports, just announced that they are indefinitely suspending the start of the spring sports season however there is a strong desire to provide student-athletes some spring athletic experience if possible.
This is a level headed decision. Now they will follow the data along with state mandates to determine what can be possible. The worst decision that could be made is cancelling right now with a few months of the year left. Hey, it may end up in a full cancel but not yet. Also, my son just got a nice email from his soon to be head college coach (just a thoughtful check-in). So in past 24 hours - he got word from his summer travel coach, updates on his HS season and a college coach check-in.
Now if we can get this market to just settle down we can breathe a little in this house.
First practice day for Iowa baseball is set for May 4 (summer baseball here). Hoping we may actually get to do that.
With each passing day, as the world gains more experience with the disease, one thing we are learning is that fatality rates are zero for those under 10 and virtually zero for those 11-19.
What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction.
Before the NCAA just cancelled everything, it had announced that games would proceed but without spectators. If people want to do this to protect older, more vulnerable members of the community, perhaps that is still justifiable. But cancelling practices and games among youths is not justified.
As a nation, we need to stop talking about all the things we can't do or shouldn't do and start identifying things we CAN do. I'm not willing to accept this message that we're all going to have to huddle in our homes for literally months with no interaction. Letting fear ruin all our lives, put millions out of work, cause tens of thousands of businesses to fail and igniting a depression should be off the table as an option.
If you could put all school students, teachers, coaches, trainers, and food-service workers under the age of 40 in school and keep them there 24/7 with no contact with people outside, I'd agree that that was the way to go. Let them all get infected and recover. However, that's not how it works. That's not how colleges work, either.
How many students have parents in high-risk groups? (mine, for a start) How old are the teachers and coaches? How many have diabetes, asthma, or other health problems? What about their families? People who live with elderly relatives? How many of those people would be allowed to opt out, if schools are open? How do you run things if a lot of people opt out?
Midlo Dad posted:With each passing day, as the world gains more experience with the disease, one thing we are learning is that fatality rates are zero for those under 10 and virtually zero for those 11-19.
What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction.
Before the NCAA just cancelled everything, it had announced that games would proceed but without spectators. If people want to do this to protect older, more vulnerable members of the community, perhaps that is still justifiable. But cancelling practices and games among youths is not justified.
As a nation, we need to stop talking about all the things we can't do or shouldn't do and start identifying things we CAN do. I'm not willing to accept this message that we're all going to have to huddle in our homes for literally months with no interaction. Letting fear ruin all our lives, put millions out of work, cause tens of thousands of businesses to fail and igniting a depression should be off the table as an option.
Midlo, I think you aren't giving enough weight to two important points:
1) Kids can get C-19, including sever cases, although they generally are at lower risk:
"Children, including very young children, can develop COVID-19. However, children tend to experience milder symptoms such as fever, runny nose, and cough. Some children have had severe complications, but this has been less common. Children with underlying health conditions may be at increased risk for severe illness." (https://www.health.harvard.edu...irus-resource-center)
2) More importantly, children who are infected can infect others--parents, grandparents, babysitters, people that happen to be near them on public transit or in the grocery store or church. Take schools as a specific example, since you mentioned them. No school can operate without adults present. Teachers, janitors, administrators, parent volunteers all are adults, some are old enough to be at high risk, and some have underlying health conditions. Even if you conclude the risk to kids themselves is acceptable, closing schools was a measure intended to help everyone by slowing the spread of coronavirus.
I am not a public health expert. But I assume you are not either. Those who do have medical and public health expertise are darn near unanimous in their recommendations at this point.
Midlo Dad posted:With each passing day, as the world gains more experience with the disease, one thing we are learning is that fatality rates are zero for those under 10 and virtually zero for those 11-19.
What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction.
Before the NCAA just cancelled everything, it had announced that games would proceed but without spectators. If people want to do this to protect older, more vulnerable members of the community, perhaps that is still justifiable. But cancelling practices and games among youths is not justified.
As a nation, we need to stop talking about all the things we can't do or shouldn't do and start identifying things we CAN do. I'm not willing to accept this message that we're all going to have to huddle in our homes for literally months with no interaction. Letting fear ruin all our lives, put millions out of work, cause tens of thousands of businesses to fail and igniting a depression should be off the table as an option.
Couldn't agree more! Wait until folks stop getting PAID or only get 1/2 their salaries and then see how fast they want to open everything back up. I just hope in the next 2 weeks people start to figure it out, each passing day seems to add new and further advanced closures, why not just wait it out already??
Midlo, JimmyMac and other folks, I mean this with all goodwill: If you think the country is overreacting, then please do a little online research. See if you can find a recent. reputable source (meaning a medical authority, not a political site or an editorial) that supports your position. The UK's stance might have offered you some limited backing until the past 24-48 hours, when they concluded they also needed to take more active measures.
I say this not to try to be combative, but because I honestly think you'll find that the medical experts just don't agree with you. If you find some public health agency or official who backs you, then please post a link here. Because I have spent way too much time online reading about this stuff (which I freely admit is my only source of knowledge on the matter--I have no medical training), and nothing I read backs up the view that schools should be re-opened or sports should resume for at least some weeks yet.
Chico Escuela posted:Midlo Dad posted:With each passing day, as the world gains more experience with the disease, one thing we are learning is that fatality rates are zero for those under 10 and virtually zero for those 11-19.
What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction.
Before the NCAA just cancelled everything, it had announced that games would proceed but without spectators. If people want to do this to protect older, more vulnerable members of the community, perhaps that is still justifiable. But cancelling practices and games among youths is not justified.
As a nation, we need to stop talking about all the things we can't do or shouldn't do and start identifying things we CAN do. I'm not willing to accept this message that we're all going to have to huddle in our homes for literally months with no interaction. Letting fear ruin all our lives, put millions out of work, cause tens of thousands of businesses to fail and igniting a depression should be off the table as an option.
Midlo, I think you aren't giving enough weight to two important points:
1) Kids can get C-19, including sever cases, although they generally are at lower risk:
"Children, including very young children, can develop COVID-19. However, children tend to experience milder symptoms such as fever, runny nose, and cough. Some children have had severe complications, but this has been less common. Children with underlying health conditions may be at increased risk for severe illness." (https://www.health.harvard.edu...irus-resource-center)
2) More importantly, children who are infected can infect others--parents, grandparents, babysitters, people that happen to be near them on public transit or in the grocery store or church. Take schools as a specific example, since you mentioned them. No school can operate without adults present. Teachers, janitors, administrators, parent volunteers all are adults, some are old enough to be at high risk, and some have underlying health conditions. Even if you conclude the risk to kids themselves is acceptable, closing schools was a measure intended to help everyone by slowing the spread of coronavirus.
I am not a public health expert. But I assume you are not either. Those who do have medical and public health expertise are darn near unanimous in their recommendations at this point.
Chico is 100% correct. Midlo, you are 100% myopic and naive. No, I'm not picking on you.
From someone in the field, with experience, just because kids aren't currently dying or the virus isn't apparently lethal to them, is even more reason for them to be quarantined and kept away from each other and everyone else. They are the perfect vector. Look up what a "vector" is.
You are entitled to your opinion, however wrong it is in this case, but come on. "What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction." WOW!!
If you aren't trained or have any experience, please let the experts lead the way and offer guidance. Otherwise it just sounds silly and naive.
To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
https://mail.google.com/mail/u...bTWqcJJmXvKVcCNgmhqV
Control what you can control. This is bigger than you, your family, me or mine, and so are the ramifications. People being selfish and not quarantining are only exacerbating and delaying the outcome. This doesn't have legs if you don't give it legs! Take this awful contagion's power away now and often.
Hug your family (when it's safe) and wait it out. This WILL go away sooner the sooner people effectively self-quarantine. Make a list of all you're grateful for and the things you miss most. We're taking in moments we overlooked before, perhaps you are too!
Seems the little things are big now whereas a week ago the big things are little today.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Yes, spring ball is GONE. Hoping summer ball isn't affected, but I'm losing faith in that with every passing day and with ignorant and naive posts.
Knowing the math behind availability of hospitals, hospital beds, ventilators, staff, etc. You don't want this to get out of hand, should you or a loved one, need that bed or ventilator or staff to be alert and awake to treat you and not sick themselves.
Wash your hands and chill.........
YouTube from people that have and are going through this... https://www.youtube.com/watch?
Think about more than yourself and your inconvenience......
Attachments
Images (1)
This is an interesting read...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...r-school-closure.pdf
The most interesting part is as follows (although I encourage reading the full article, especially the table at the end that details the pro/con of each approach).
Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epi curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modelling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., handwashing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
atlnon posted:This is an interesting read...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...r-school-closure.pdf
The most interesting part is as follows (although I encourage reading the full article, especially the table at the end that details the pro/con of each approach).
Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epi curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modelling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., handwashing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
School closures without other methods will not do much. It says right here in the excerpt you selected that home isolation and hand washing have more impact. How do you both home isolate and go to school? (Hint: you can't)
Midlo Dad posted:With each passing day, as the world gains more experience with the disease, one thing we are learning is that fatality rates are zero for those under 10 and virtually zero for those 11-19.
What this means to me is, the closure of schools and the cessation of school-related activities is not justified by any scientific fact. We're dealing only with an hysterical overreaction.
Before the NCAA just cancelled everything, it had announced that games would proceed but without spectators. If people want to do this to protect older, more vulnerable members of the community, perhaps that is still justifiable. But cancelling practices and games among youths is not justified.
As a nation, we need to stop talking about all the things we can't do or shouldn't do and start identifying things we CAN do. I'm not willing to accept this message that we're all going to have to huddle in our homes for literally months with no interaction. Letting fear ruin all our lives, put millions out of work, cause tens of thousands of businesses to fail and igniting a depression should be off the table as an option.
What does the data say about transmission for those age groups?
I think it's really to protect everybody, in all age groups. There isn't significant data as to what are the ramifications for those who have been sick.
Reports coming from China, has been diminished lung capacity.
Maybe if we had known sooner, things could have been different.
Go44dad posted:What does the data say about transmission for those age groups?
Nature (highest-level science journal in the US) says that children get sick as much as other people, but show symptoms much less, especially severe symptoms:
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00154-w
"Children are just as likely to become infected with the new coronavirus as adults, finds one of the most detailed studies yet published on the spread of the virus, known as SARS-CoV-2. The analysis — based on data from Shenzhen in China — provides a partial answer to one of the most pressing questions surrounding the outbreak: the role of children.
Previous studies have suggested that kids are much less likely than other age groups to develop severe symptoms when infected by the coronavirus. But it was not clear whether this was because they weren’t getting infected or because they were fighting off the infection more effectively.
“Kids are just as likely to get infected and they’re not getting sick,” says Justin Lessler, an infectious-disease epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore, Maryland."
atlnon posted:This is an interesting read...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...r-school-closure.pdf
The most interesting part is as follows (although I encourage reading the full article, especially the table at the end that details the pro/con of each approach).
Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epi curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modelling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., handwashing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
Agreed it is interesting (thanks for sharing).
I don't know what to make of it. For one, it's very odd that CDC seems to be suggesting school closings won't help after offering no objection when schools were closing just a few days ago. I understand there may be new info, but to provide new official guidance now is really odd. I also agree with 22and25 that the reference to the effectiveness of "home isolation" seems directly at odds with keeping schools open.
And then there is the recommendation that schools "implement multiple social distancing strategies for gatherings, classrooms and movement through the building." How do you keep kids six feet apart in class, when desks are generally much closer together than that, and many classrooms are filled to capacity? How do you have HS students change classes but maintain six feet of separation in the halls? Lockers are next to each other, people are all trying to get from one place to another in a short interval between periods. Even at lunch time--not many schools I know of have space in their cafeterias to keep six feet of space in line, six feet between kids sitting at tables... Is CDC also suggesting restaurants should stay open? A school cafeteria is essentially a large restaurant.
I read it as saying that it's no use to close just for a few weeks; that schools have to close for 8+ weeks. But it wasn't very clear.
Obviously, now that they're saying no groups of more than 10 people, school is out.
Just read that MLB is considering skipping the amateur draft this year in an attempt to save money. That would be bad news for some players on my son's team. Got a potential 1st round pick, and 2 others who will probably go in the draft. I wonder if they do skip the draft and these kids take their scholarships and play in college, if they will create some type of exception for next year that would let these kids be eligible for the 2021 amateur draft.
Lots of tears from MLB ownership, standing in the soup line with their pockets turned out.
They’re also “fearful” they won’t be able to pay their stadium personnel, per the same article. Just your basic positioning for upcoming negotiations with union and possible government handouts.
Moved up to #4 in state rankings. I think we can hold this spot awhile.
ARCEKU21 posted:Just read that MLB is considering skipping the amateur draft this year in an attempt to save money. That would be bad news for some players on my son's team. Got a potential 1st round pick, and 2 others who will probably go in the draft. I wonder if they do skip the draft and these kids take their scholarships and play in college, if they will create some type of exception for next year that would let these kids be eligible for the 2021 amateur draft.
Well, yes they would be eligible. But would probably have to sign for peanuts. (Assuming they are on a college roster)
RoadRunner posted:ARCEKU21 posted:Just read that MLB is considering skipping the amateur draft this year in an attempt to save money. That would be bad news for some players on my son's team. Got a potential 1st round pick, and 2 others who will probably go in the draft. I wonder if they do skip the draft and these kids take their scholarships and play in college, if they will create some type of exception for next year that would let these kids be eligible for the 2021 amateur draft.
Well, yes they would be eligible. But would probably have to sign for peanuts. (Assuming they are on a college roster)
Roadrunner, These are HS kids, I believe. If they start D1 college, they won't be eligible again until they are 21 or a junior (some turn 21 their sophomore year), unless they make exceptions, which the college coaches are not planning on (loosing freshmen players to the draft). Hopefully, these players have college to fall back on, which is not a bad place to land.
It is quite a mess, but decisions will be made and baseball will be played again.
Still really crappy. Kids working hard for an opportunity that is now taken away for 3 more years. And walking into rosters with juniors who were sure things for the draft but are now playing another year. They are making a bigger mess of all of this. If they just move forward, it sucks but everyone lost one season. What they are doing now messes up 3-4 seasons.
PitchingFan posted:Let's start with your son's grade, what level they play (middle school, 9th grade, jv or varsity), position, school if you would like to share
Found this thread too late... Son is a 2020 LHP at a ranked school in Texas. Started a game on what became the final day of games last week and was pulled in the 5th inning of a no hitter (because he walked a batter on a full count after hitting one earlier that inning). Team still won big, so earned the W, but the reliever did allow a hit in the 6th, so no combined no-no. Not quite the high note though I was expecting his team to go out on this season. Team was stacked with like 6 D1s and a D2 from the senior class alone.
Eokerholm posted:To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
If it were localized to a few small areas in the country then maybe we could stop it. But there are documented cases in every state now and more everyday. You could say it's already metastasized if you will.
If it were less contagious maybe we could stop it.
And maybe we could stop it if it wasn't possible to be asymptomatic and contagious. Or possible to be mildly symptomatic and contagious. Or maybe if that time frame were shorter.
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?
Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
2True posted:Eokerholm posted:To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
If it were localized to a few small areas in the country then maybe we could stop it. But there are documented cases in every state now and more everyday. You could say it's already metastasized if you will.
If it were less contagious maybe we could stop it.
And maybe we could stop it if it wasn't possible to be asymptomatic and contagious. Or possible to be mildly symptomatic and contagious. Or maybe if that time frame were shorter.
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?
Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
Slowing the spread is the goal. Completely stopping it is not realistic for our country.
Slowing the spread is attainable. Eradicating or stopping it completely is not an option unless, like you said, strict protocol measures are followed and adhered too, which will not happen in this country, too inconvenient.
The virus has no legs. The only way to transmit it is through vector movement and/or aspirate contact.
There are a multitude of protocols and measures that people can do to assist in the reduction of movement and transmission. Hand washing, social distancing and isolation , etc.
if, for example, you act like you are infected and don’t want to get someone else sick you’ll be apt to make better decisions on movement and interaction and in essence help stop/slow the spread.
This only works when people comply. Rethink that play date with the neighborhood kids, unless you all are not moving and not a single person in your group leaves your containment area and comes in contact with a vector (symptomatic or asymptotic) or aspirate. As discussed, if everyone that was infected, looked,acted, and walked like the zombies in the movies immediately upon infection, this would easy to avoid.
The goal is manageable spread with medical capacity for treatment and recovery.
Sorry, typing on my phone is proving more frustrating than helpful before coffee.
Plain and simple, if I don’t leave my House, I will not get infected nor will any one of my family. Nor will I if infected (with or without symptoms) infect someone else. But I have to leave to get groceries or medicine or supplies. When I do or even if I order delivery, that is a chance for transmission.
less movement, less infection/spread
Do you, your family, and your community a favor and keep the kids home, watch movies, play games, do chores, mow the grass, fix that thing you said you were going to, build something, clean out the garage, take the dog for a walk, go for a hike, go through closets and drawers and clean out stuff to donate. social distancing is good and helps. It’s manageable.
This will slow down and we can get back to normal so much quicker if and when more people do just that.
2True posted:Eokerholm posted:To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
If it were localized to a few small areas in the country then maybe we could stop it. But there are documented cases in every state now and more everyday. You could say it's already metastasized if you will.
If it were less contagious maybe we could stop it.
And maybe we could stop it if it wasn't possible to be asymptomatic and contagious. Or possible to be mildly symptomatic and contagious. Or maybe if that time frame were shorter.
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?
Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
Good questions. Here is the clearest article I have seen explaining the goal of "social distancing" policies:
https://www.washingtonpost.com...ld/corona-simulator/
This article is also good re: what it means to "flatten the curve" and why it matters:
2True posted:Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
Yes, it's here, and slowing it down is crucial. It's all about hospital beds. 20% of people who get it will need hospitalization, so there have to be enough beds and ventilators in hospitals (especially intensive care), and enough people to care for them. The more isolation everyone does, the slower it will spread, and the fewer people will have it AT ONE TIME. That is what they are trying to achieve, before it gets out of control.
Countries where they made isolation mandatory, and forced people to comply, are ahead, or are getting on top of it. Where they waited too long, like Italy, it got out of control. Since the US hasn't mandated anything on a federal level, it's not clear what will happen.
Chico Escuela posted:atlnon posted:This is an interesting read...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...r-school-closure.pdf
The most interesting part is as follows (although I encourage reading the full article, especially the table at the end that details the pro/con of each approach).
Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epi curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modelling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., handwashing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
Agreed it is interesting (thanks for sharing).
I don't know what to make of it. For one, it's very odd that CDC seems to be suggesting school closings won't help after offering no objection when schools were closing just a few days ago. I understand there may be new info, but to provide new official guidance now is really odd. I also agree with 22and25 that the reference to the effectiveness of "home isolation" seems directly at odds with keeping schools open.
And then there is the recommendation that schools "implement multiple social distancing strategies for gatherings, classrooms and movement through the building." How do you keep kids six feet apart in class, when desks are generally much closer together than that, and many classrooms are filled to capacity? How do you have HS students change classes but maintain six feet of separation in the halls? Lockers are next to each other, people are all trying to get from one place to another in a short interval between periods. Even at lunch time--not many schools I know of have space in their cafeterias to keep six feet of space in line, six feet between kids sitting at tables... Is CDC also suggesting restaurants should stay open? A school cafeteria is essentially a large restaurant.
Yeah, that's what I felt also (not sure what to make of it). My conclusion is same as anotherparent, that the only effective closing is 8+ weeks.
The interesting thing to me though is this: In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
I didn't realize that Singapore did not close schools. But knowing Singapore (strict government and small city-state), they are able to enforce strict quarantine and isolation so I think that is an exception.
Here's a graph I saw this morning. It's outdated as it was back when US has 5,000 cases (which is scary as that is just a few days ago). Now, it's close to 9,000, still following the exponential trajectory.
Attachments
Images (1)
On increase in cases, it is difficult to separate the increase between causalities. Most likely the increase is split between increase in the spread of the disease and the increase in testing. In addition, any information about transmission, mortality or any other percentages you try and glean from early data is tainted by bias in sampling, i.e., they are most likely testing patients in the ICU first, then the very sick, then the mildly sick. just careful with conclusions from early numbers.
And on school closings in Hong Kong not changing transmission rates, I’m not buying it as a rationale to put groups of people together.
My opinion, Best case is we are 8 weeks out from understanding where we are and not “out of it” until a vaccine is developed and distributed.
Go44dad posted:On increase in cases, it is difficult to separate the increase between causalities. Most likely the increase is split between increase in the spread of the disease and the increase in testing. In addition, any information about transmission, mortality or any other percentages you try and glean from early data is tainted by bias in sampling, i.e., they are most likely testing patients in the ICU first, then the very sick, then the mildly sick. just careful with conclusions from early numbers.
And on school closings in Hong Kong not changing transmission rates, I’m not buying it as a rationale to put groups of people together.
My opinion, Best case is we are 8 weeks out from understanding where we are and not “out of it” until a vaccine is developed and distributed.
If you are right about the 8 weeks (and there are plenty that think you are) then there is likely to be no baseball this summer either. No collegiate leagues, no travel ball tournaments, etc. Maybe a little premature to predict that but it’s certainly a possibility.
If we are 8 weeks out, there might not be official summer ball but we might definitely go back to the olden days with guys of all ages. Guys getting together in the sandlot and playing ball. No way baseball players stay locked up for that long. I have a field by my house and I'm sure unless we are in complete lockdown that there will be guys using it at some point.
Let's say the 8 weeks is close to accurate and we tack on another month to be safe. That would take us to roughly June 10th. I don't see why HS summer ball could not happen from mid June to Mid August. Last summer our schedule ran almost exactly 2 months.
Here is a pretty fair opinion piece from a Stanford professor.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/
d-mac posted:Here is a pretty fair opinion piece from a Stanford professor.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/
And a direct followup.
Senna posted:d-mac posted:Here is a pretty fair opinion piece from a Stanford professor.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/
And a direct followup.
I enjoyed these 2 articles a lot, and wished there are more conversations like these happening as opposed to the hyper-politicized and rhetoric-filled shouting happening right now.
2True posted:Eokerholm posted:To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
If it were localized to a few small areas in the country then maybe we could stop it. But there are documented cases in every state now and more everyday. You could say it's already metastasized if you will.
If it were less contagious maybe we could stop it.
And maybe we could stop it if it wasn't possible to be asymptomatic and contagious. Or possible to be mildly symptomatic and contagious. Or maybe if that time frame were shorter.
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?
Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
Slowing the spread is the goal at this juncture. We only have so many hospital beds, ventilators, Drs and nurses. Even if you don’t care about contracting the virus, if our hospitals are overloaded, YOU might die from something else, like an MI, MVA, CVA, etc. Hospitals have limited resources, even without coronavirus.
Texas just extended HS no extra curricular activities to May 4th.
Chico Escuela posted:atlnon posted:This is an interesting read...
https://www.cdc.gov/coronaviru...r-school-closure.pdf
The most interesting part is as follows (although I encourage reading the full article, especially the table at the end that details the pro/con of each approach).
Available modeling data indicate that early, short to medium closures do not impact the epi curve of COVID-19 or available health care measures (e.g., hospitalizations). There may be some impact of much longer closures (8 weeks, 20 weeks) further into community spread, but that modelling also shows that other mitigation efforts (e.g., handwashing, home isolation) have more impact on both spread of disease and health care measures. In other countries, those places who closed school (e.g., Hong Kong) have not had more success in reducing spread than those that did not (e.g., Singapore).
Agreed it is interesting (thanks for sharing).
I don't know what to make of it. For one, it's very odd that CDC seems to be suggesting school closings won't help after offering no objection when schools were closing just a few days ago. I understand there may be new info, but to provide new official guidance now is really odd. I also agree with 22and25 that the reference to the effectiveness of "home isolation" seems directly at odds with keeping schools open.
And then there is the recommendation that schools "implement multiple social distancing strategies for gatherings, classrooms and movement through the building." How do you keep kids six feet apart in class, when desks are generally much closer together than that, and many classrooms are filled to capacity? How do you have HS students change classes but maintain six feet of separation in the halls? Lockers are next to each other, people are all trying to get from one place to another in a short interval between periods. Even at lunch time--not many schools I know of have space in their cafeterias to keep six feet of space in line, six feet between kids sitting at tables... Is CDC also suggesting restaurants should stay open? A school cafeteria is essentially a large restaurant.
CDC has been all over the place in their guidance, changing things from one day to the next. The cutbacks and administration changes there, and in some other places such as Homeland Security, look to have been terrible decisions. Some said that at the time, but it is particularly damning in hindsight.
So now my wife is being told to go to work even if she has had contact with infected people, and to wear a Bandana if the masks are gone. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious.
Anyway, this is a long way away from HS baseball. I know it's a small thing compared to real life, but it's looking more and more like this season will never get off the ground for us. Son #2 is a HS SO, so it's not as bad for him. Feel badly for the Seniors, especially the ones who won't be playing in college.
PER 57:
“So now my wife is being told to go to work even if she has had contact with infected people, and to wear a Bandana if the masks are gone. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. “
So 57, based on your profile, you are in MN. MN has 91 cases as of today per JH map. Certainly not all of them are hospitalized. Why be an alarmist? Acting in this way is simply not helpful. It’s difficult enough to get people to realize the ramifications of what IS actually happening. No one needs false truths right now. Several days ago you made similar comments about your local hospital already being overwhelmed. How many cases or hospitalizations due to corona did MN have when you made that comment?
RoadRunner posted:2True posted:Eokerholm posted:To help exemplify the situation, watch a few simulations and understand how the vector works, and if the vector doesn't show symptoms, it can't be identified, treated, or quarantined to protect the rest of the population. Transmission skyrockets. Self quarantine works, shuts this down, stops the spread.
All this takes is everyone to hit the pause button and it stops in MUCH LESS TIME than it will if you don't. This would have been resolved in a matter of weeks with systemic and mandatory self quarantines. Now it will unfortunately take longer as people travel, and go about this without care or caution.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding but..... we can't actually stop the spread at this point can we? Isn't it too late for that?
If it were localized to a few small areas in the country then maybe we could stop it. But there are documented cases in every state now and more everyday. You could say it's already metastasized if you will.
If it were less contagious maybe we could stop it.
And maybe we could stop it if it wasn't possible to be asymptomatic and contagious. Or possible to be mildly symptomatic and contagious. Or maybe if that time frame were shorter.
Given these conditions, wouldn't we need to follow extremely stringent quarantine rules? Much more stringent than what they're currently recommending? Is it realistic to think that you can get enough people to comply for long enough? Or even get enough people to fully comply at all?
Seems like all we can do is slow spread? I'm not suggesting that we should just resume life as normal. I'm perfectly willing to make sacrifices for the common good. I just like to understand whats happening that's all.
Slowing the spread is the goal at this juncture. We only have so many hospital beds, ventilators, Drs and nurses. Even if you don’t care about contracting the virus, if our hospitals are overloaded, YOU might die from something else, like an MI, MVA, CVA, etc. Hospitals have limited resources, even without coronavirus.
Thanks all who responded. I had in fact read the articles on flattening the curve and slowing the spread prior to posting that comment. I was just politely wondering why Eokerholm repeatedly referred to stopping the spread when it seems that's no longer possible. Sorry, Eokerholm, really not trying to pick on you at all!! But why say stop when stop isn't an option?
There's a lot of misinformation, misleading info, contradicting information and missing information. I only skimmed the article that D-Mac posted but I certainly agree with parts and am frustrated by the lack of info. I understand that some info is unobtainable at this point for various reasons (lack of tests etc). But seems some could or should be more clear.
For the record, I have left my home once in 3 days except to go for walks in the woods and have followed the current social distancing rules. I'm willing to continue to follow them even if we are simply following them because they seem like the best course of action at this point given the current data. Would like to see some of the blanks filled in though.
2True,
I believe Eokerholm was using the terms stop and slow as synonyms. I could be wrong, maybe he will speak to that. ☮️
RoadRunner posted:PER 57:
“So now my wife is being told to go to work even if she has had contact with infected people, and to wear a Bandana if the masks are gone. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. “
So 57, based on your profile, you are in MN. MN has 91 cases as of today per JH map. Certainly not all of them are hospitalized. Why be an alarmist? Acting in this way is simply not helpful. It’s difficult enough to get people to realize the ramifications of what IS actually happening. No one needs false truths right now. Several days ago you made similar comments about your local hospital already being overwhelmed. How many cases or hospitalizations due to corona did MN have when you made that comment?
atlnon posted:Senna posted:d-mac posted:Here is a pretty fair opinion piece from a Stanford professor.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/...thout-reliable-data/
And a direct followup.
I enjoyed these 2 articles a lot, and wished there are more conversations like these happening as opposed to the hyper-politicized and rhetoric-filled shouting happening right now.
Completely agree
RoadRunner posted:PER 57:
“So now my wife is being told to go to work even if she has had contact with infected people, and to wear a Bandana if the masks are gone. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. “
So 57, based on your profile, you are in MN. MN has 91 cases as of today per JH map. Certainly not all of them are hospitalized. Why be an alarmist? Acting in this way is simply not helpful. It’s difficult enough to get people to realize the ramifications of what IS actually happening. No one needs false truths right now. Several days ago you made similar comments about your local hospital already being overwhelmed. How many cases or hospitalizations due to corona did MN have when you made that comment?
It's not how many people are in the hospital, but how many people are in the ER at one time.
Per57, my daughter's very close friend is an ER nurse in one of our largest hospitals in our county. They ran out of hazmat suits and she was wearing the same mask as the day before. They ran out of influenza kits as well because protocol is that test first if positive you have the flu, if not go home and quarantine yourself for 2 weeks.
You are correct about the bandanas and our hospitals in my county are overwhelmed.
RoadRunner posted:2True,
I believe Eokerholm was using the terms stop and slow as synonyms. I could be wrong, maybe he will speak to that. ☮️
I think you're most likely right. But wasn't sure. They are quite different in this case. Some of us literal people need concise wording in our scientific information to avoid confusion 
TPM posted:RoadRunner posted:PER 57:
“So now my wife is being told to go to work even if she has had contact with infected people, and to wear a Bandana if the masks are gone. It would be funny if it wasn't so serious. “
So 57, based on your profile, you are in MN. MN has 91 cases as of today per JH map. Certainly not all of them are hospitalized. Why be an alarmist? Acting in this way is simply not helpful. It’s difficult enough to get people to realize the ramifications of what IS actually happening. No one needs false truths right now. Several days ago you made similar comments about your local hospital already being overwhelmed. How many cases or hospitalizations due to corona did MN have when you made that comment?
It's not how many people are in the hospital, but how many people are in the ER at one time.
Per57, my daughter's very close friend is an ER nurse in one of our largest hospitals in our county. They ran out of hazmat suits and she was wearing the same mask as the day before. They ran out of influenza kits as well because protocol is that test first if positive you have the flu, if not go home and quarantine yourself for 2 weeks.
You are correct about the bandanas and our hospitals in my county are overwhelmed.
My point is, 91 coronavirus patients in MN is not overwhelming the Healthcare system. I’m sure things are getting dicey in areas where there are abundant corona patients. People should not be panicked and go to the emergency room. No alarmist behavior!
Edit to add: rushing to the ER for non acute flu like symptoms is just as stupid as crowding beaches. What are people thinking?
Agree. 9500 cases nationally is not overwhelming at this point.
9500 is not overwhelming at all. But it was 1500 just one week ago, and at the current rate of growth will be something like 50,000 next Thursday, and 200,000 the Thursday after that, and so on, unless the drastic lifestyle changes most of us are going through have a good effect.
Ok, enough with the quote of a quote of a quote. These are getting long.
Stop and slow. Sorry I’m at my ranch in Fredericksburg working. Neighbors have 100s of acres. The spread will NOT reach us. See I’m quarantined in a ranch where it will not spread to me or my family.
We’re bunkered down with plenty of food, water, toilet paper and supplies to last weeks, if not longer.
If I never leave, it will Not get here, it can’t.
Not sure what makes it difficult. You can slow the spread with social distancing, but not stop it. Just makes it harder to get.
The only way to stop it is containment of those infected and quarantine of the sick and not sick apart. hard part is the asymptotic infected, but that’s been covered 20 times already.
my wife, son and myself are hanging out With the dogs and getting $hit done on the ranch.
just heard our HS (Austin, TX) hopes to return to baseball May 4th. Well see if that holds....
i just want to be able to get to summer ball and back to normal.
good luck y’all!
Did it go up 8000 in one week because 8000 people got it from the 1500? Or did it go up because they are doing many more tests than a week ago? Answer is nobody knows. And the answer is very important because that gives the exponent needed to make calculations on the quickness of the spread of the virus.
We don’t know to make assumptions on how many will have it in a week/month etc.
Go44dad posted:Did it go up 8000 in one week because 8000 people got it from the 1500? Or did it go up because they are doing many more tests than a week ago? Answer is nobody knows. And the answer is very important because that gives the exponent needed to make calculations on the quickness of the spread of the virus.
We don’t know to make assumptions on how many will have it in a week/month etc.
Does it matter? All the other countries were in a similar state (except those that did massive testing from the beginning). If the other countries (like Italy) were in the same state, then we can assume we will follow the same curve that they had.
baseballhs posted:Still really crappy. Kids working hard for an opportunity that is now taken away for 3 more years. And walking into rosters with juniors who were sure things for the draft but are now playing another year. They are making a bigger mess of all of this. If they just move forward, it sucks but everyone lost one season. What they are doing now messes up 3-4 seasons.
There’s going to be competition for your hs son regardless of the situation and lots of it. Rosters at the college level are highly competitive and fluid to say the least. And the ncaa is trying to do the right thing here. It’s tough all the way around. Think of the college jr that hoped to be drafted, the jc soph looking for a scholarship to D1 or to be drafted, etc, etc. It isn’t just about hs srs and their “odds stacked against them”. All angles have to be considered and it’s a very tough call. I applaud the ncaa in at least being swift and decisive so student athletes weren’t left in any more limbo than normal. Unprecedented for sure. Numbers will work through over the next couple classes.
Folks, I really cannot believe there are about four pages of coronavirus talk. I find it in very poor taste to bring it here. Save for a couple people, most are not even qualified to be discussing the topic and come off sounding incredibly annoying. If discussion relates to timetables of seasons, recruitment, etc, it’s one thing, but to speak one word about whether cancellations are warranted or whether the virus is world ending or this side of the common cold is complete bs in my opinion. I can get intelligent information a lot of places on that topic and here isn’t one of them. I come here for baseball and that’s what I should get here. If there still is a maddening desire, go start a new topic and debate it forever without me. Now....back to baseball please.
Not necessarily disagreeing with you, Savant, but that ship has sailed.
You’ll have better luck starting your own virus-free thread.
Bballsavante posted:*** If discussion relates to timetables of seasons, recruitment, etc, it’s one thing, but to speak one word about whether cancellations are warranted or whether the virus is world ending or this side of the common cold is complete bs in my opinion.
Agreed this has become a long thread. But I think we're going to have a hard time talking about baseball "timetables of seasons, recruitment etc." right now without talking about the one factor driving every one of those things. My family are stuck in the house, routines have been upended, I want to know what's going to happen and am seeking information (and, frankly, thinking too much about it all). If you think sharing links to CDC publications and articles by Harvard and Stanford epidemiologists is "bs," you're entitled to your opinion. The solution is simple--don't read the thread. I disagree with many opinions expressed here, but I'm still glad to have the conversation. (It's not as though I can go have a chat with folks at the office or after church these days...)
Non-doctors give opinions in these forums all the time (properly caveated, IMO) about injuries, training and recovery. I don't think it's correct that "cancelling the HS baseball season is/is not warranted given what I read in X" is off-topic. But if you think it is, then I understand if you decide to un-follow the thread.
warranted or not HS baseball has 0% chance of happening this year in my opinion.
atlnon posted:Go44dad posted:Did it go up 8000 in one week because 8000 people got it from the 1500? Or did it go up because they are doing many more tests than a week ago? Answer is nobody knows. And the answer is very important because that gives the exponent needed to make calculations on the quickness of the spread of the virus.
We don’t know to make assumptions on how many will have it in a week/month etc.
Does it matter? All the other countries were in a similar state (except those that did massive testing from the beginning). If the other countries (like Italy) were in the same state, then we can assume we will follow the same curve that they had.
It matters if you are a critical thinker.
Like Mark Twain said, there are four kinds of lies. Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Charts made in Powerpoint.
Chico Escuela posted:Bballsavante posted:*** If discussion relates to timetables of seasons, recruitment, etc, it’s one thing, but to speak one word about whether cancellations are warranted or whether the virus is world ending or this side of the common cold is complete bs in my opinion.
Agreed this has become a long thread. But I think we're going to have a hard time talking about baseball "timetables of seasons, recruitment etc." right now without talking about the one factor driving every one of those things. My family are stuck in the house, routines have been upended, I want to know what's going to happen and am seeking information (and, frankly, thinking too much about it all). If you think sharing links to CDC publications and articles by Harvard and Stanford epidemiologists is "bs," you're entitled to your opinion. The solution is simple--don't read the thread. I disagree with many opinions expressed here, but I'm still glad to have the conversation. (It's not as though I can go have a chat with folks at the office or after church these days...)
Non-doctors give opinions in these forums all the time (properly caveated, IMO) about injuries, training and recovery. I don't think it's correct that "cancelling the HS baseball season is/is not warranted given what I read in X" is off-topic. But if you think it is, then I understand if you decide to un-follow the thread.
Again, the original thread title is 2020 hs baseball season. Not 2020 coronavirus ad nauseum. You can’t turn on the tv, radio, newspaper, twitter, etc without it slamming you in the mouth. Quite frankly, I’m sick (no pun) of hearing about it. This forum is for baseball talk and this thread is specifically for how to maneuver through the challenges of a shortned season or no season at all. Answering questions, giving each other advice, etc, sharing experiences with how you are seeing things handled in recruitment in lieu of this, summer ball, workout tips, etc. But droning on for pages nonstop about the virus has no relevance to the discussion and adds nothing here. It drives people away. I find it incredibly hard to believe most of you would rather talk about the virus nonstop and ignore the thread topic then to have the handful of “virus resident self experts” set up an off topic thread where they can give baseball back to the rest of us. That or just rename the thread to corona 2020 and start a new 2020 hs baseball thread because this is ridiculous.