2023 parents are your expectations/strategies changing?

My advice would be to target top JuCo programs and start looking for on campus prospect camps that you can attend. Being a catcher really helps as there is always demand for good ones. But you are right to be concerned about roster numbers - and every stupid decision by the NCAA & NJCAA is extending the problem for years to come. Get a good JuCo program interested early on in order to have your bases covered.

Is your son a 4.0 student because he's taking easy courses at an easy school?  Or his he happy working on schoolwork as hard as he is on baseball?

If the former, I think Adbono's advice if good. If the latter, I would target strong academic schools, in and out of P5, where the kid could be happy if baseball doesn't work out or if he gets limited playing time.  Like Rice, the service academies, the whole Patriot league, Davidson, Duke, Notre Dame, Michigan, UNC, UVA, Maryland, etc.

@JCG posted:

Is your son a 4.0 student because he's taking easy courses at an easy school?  Or his he happy working on schoolwork as hard as he is on baseball?

If the former, I think Adbono's advice if good. If the latter, I would target strong academic schools, in and out of P5, where the kid could be happy if baseball doesn't work out or if he gets limited playing time.  Like Rice, the service academies, the whole Patriot league, Davidson, Duke, Notre Dame, Michigan, UNC, UVA, Maryland, etc.

Agree

He is 4.0+ taking honors and advanced classes (the hardest curriculum possible at his school) which sends a lot of kids to the Ivy's and high academic schools.  I have another son at one of the schools you mention and my wife and I attended the same school, so we know what high academics require.  All the schools you mention would be great fits, and some of them don't take many JucCos.  So I don't think that's a solution for everyone.   

There are guys out there that specialize in placing baseball players at HA schools. Under normal circumstances I wouldn’t advocate that if a player was really good. But these days I would. If you are interested let me know by PM and I will make a recommendation of a guy that had shown proven results

I would say if he maintains those rankings he should have no problem landing in a good situation.

My son is also a 2023 C, but I have no clue what his ranking would be. There are several stud C’s in FL. He’s great defensively (threw 80 today to 2b, also low 80’s on the mound) and his hitting has really taken off this fall. He is also wicked smart and targeting the top STEM schools in the country. The strategy for him has always been to hope he is good enough at baseball to help get him past some of the other wicked smart kids applying to the same schools. I don’t really see the strategy changing no matter what happens with the rosters.

I would be very worried if my kid were targeting P5 schools right now. Most of them aren’t slowing down their recruiting and have been over signing for years. Now it is just going to be a lot worse. Add in the possibilities of more programs being dissolved. I just read an article this morning about FSU’s finances due to cancelling 2 home football games. If they are having trouble, I can only imagine what is happening at the lower P5 and other schools.

Apologies if this hijacks this thread, but I think it’s relevant:

Our state (GA) has some not insignificant in-state college financial incentives for students with certain GPA/test scores. And our 2022 son is an engineering focused student. And we have few JUCOs in GA.

So one of the options we have talked with him about is going a D2/D3 route for the first 2-3 years in a school that has an engineering transfer program, then completing the engineering at the D1 school. If he can get on the D1 baseball team at that time, it’s a bonus. If not, he’s still getting an excellent education at a significant cost savings. Plus he’s (perhaps) avoiding the worst of the C19 fallout.

An quick example of this is UNG. They have a regents program, with 2 years @ UNG, then transfer to GaTech, Mercer, or Clemson for final 2-2.5 years. He already had the grades/scores to get into those, but as a relatively late blooming catcher, son sees this option as a possible better pathway with the current recurring climate.  

Not something we are locked into doing, but it’s a definite option on the table for the moment. Depending on your location, Kennie, it may be something you can check out.

@JCG posted:

Is your son a 4.0 student because he's taking easy courses at an easy school?  Or his he happy working on schoolwork as hard as he is on baseball?

4.0 at a great school in all advanced/honors courses. His school puts many ids in Ivy's and high academics and they often play sports there.  Private school.

@Senna posted:

Apologies if this hijacks this thread, but I think it’s relevant:

Our state (GA) has some not insignificant in-state college financial incentives for students with certain GPA/test scores. And our 2022 son is an engineering focused student. And we have few JUCOs in GA.

So on of the options we have talked with him about is going a D2/D3 route for the first 2-3 years in a school that has an engineering transfer program, then completing the engineering at the D1 school. If he can get on the D1 baseball team at that time, it’s a bonus. If not, he’s still getting an excellent education at a significant cost savings. Plus he’s (perhaps) avoiding the worst of the C19 fallout.

An quick example of this is UNG. They have a regents program, with 2 years @ UNG, then transfer to GaTech, Mercer, or Clemson for final 2-2.5 years. He already had the grades/scores to get into those, but as a relatively late blooming catcher, son sees this option as a possible better pathway with the current recurring climate.  

Not something we are locked into doing, but it’s a definite option on the table for the moment. Depending on your location, Kennie, it may be something you can check out.

That is a very good strategy IMO

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

I would be very worried if my kid were targeting P5 schools right now. Most of them aren’t slowing down their recruiting and have been over signing for years.

yep. That is what has me worried and wondering if we focus on HAs instead because I think they are more likely to not oversign. Could be wrong

@KennieProton posted:

yep. That is what has me worried and wondering if we focus on HAs instead because I think they are more likely to not oversign. Could be wrong

Uhhh...unless your son is projected to be a high draft pick this should always be the primary strategy IMO. Use baseball to get into a school that would not otherwise be able to him. A player's academics is what is going to carry him through life, which is a heck of a lot longer than 4 years of college baseball. Again JMO.

Umm...Mostly agree except he also wants to PLAY and play against the best competition possible. It's not as as simple as being a draft pick or getting into schools that would otherwise not be options if your goal is also to compete and play baseball as long as possible.  I know that's probably what you meant but not exactly what you said.  thanks

@KennieProton posted:

yep. That is what has me worried and wondering if we focus on HAs instead because I think they are more likely to not oversign. Could be wrong

I would think the HA recruiting will be the same as usual as far as numbers go. What does your son want to major in?

I'll say business. Math comes very easy and he's very competitive so he's been looking at schools with undergrad business / economics or stats majors. Who knows tho . He just turned 16.

@KennieProton posted:

Umm...Mostly agree except he also wants to PLAY and play against the best competition possible. It's not as as simple as being a draft pick or getting into schools that would otherwise not be options if your goal is also to compete and play baseball as long as possible.  I know that's probably what you meant but not exactly what you said.  thanks

Your son and you are going to have to consider the current situation to determine what is the best possible competition he can compete. Not only do players have an extra year of eligibility. A lot of players who would have been drafted in another year were undrafted and are returning. So, is your kid a bad ass prospect player who can walk in and start at the best possible competitive environment? Or does he need to adjust his expectations.  At the higher academic programs kids aren’t going to hang around just to play another season. They’re going to move on to a job or a preferred grad school. If they continue to play it would likely be at that grad school.

The next couple of years of recruiting will be unchartered territory. It will be important to have good instincts. And hear what is being said, not what you want to believe the coaches are saying.

My son is a 2023 and committed before all this Covid stuff went down. He is committed to a P5 that is also known for academics. Also the coach is known for not bringing in large recruiting classes. I look back now think he made a great decision on choosing this school. If he would have chosen other schools that are notorious for large recruiting classes I would be sweating it a little right now. But I think we are in a very good situation and blessed that the cards fell as they did.

2021 Dad here.  I’ve found that the rankings are meaningless.  College coaches rank the recruits by their own criteria based in part on supply and demand.

Keep working on getting him bigger, faster, stronger and keep those grades up!  While being Catcher does open doors, I’ve seem many Catchers over the years overreach and end up being the bullpen catcher for 4 years.  

Hi KP.  This site has been great for helping me understand my 2023s probabilities in baseball.  I used to think of course he can play anywhere.  He's similar to your boy in some ways.  He's smart.  4.0 uwgpa at one of supposed top HS in usa.  #1 in class currently.   7.0  sixty, 85 EV tee,  82 inf velo.  But I don't suspect he is top 30 in state.  He's 5ft 9 and 148 lbs.  ( In 2 years he ll be ... 5ft 9... 160lb.. )  SS/CF/3 hole.  Plays on the #2 team for a large travel program.  So the reality check here has admittedly been a bit hard but helpful.  I don't think anything but a D3 is in the cards for him, especially now w covid.  Which is fine.  We are focused on going to the best academic fit and trying to make sure he doesn't go somewhere where they are over recruiting just for the tuition money.   Best wishes. holidaybelly2023

Your topic and your son's ranking put me down a rabbit hole....I went back to the the PerfectGame state ranking for my son's year.  I don't have the sophomore ranking, but the final ranking for his year.  Oh my.....

His metrics were similar:  ranked 26th in the state and 6th for his position (not catcher).

Some players that were ranked higher than him (remember, they don't mean too much), that were committed to P5 schools, never set foot on those campuses.  Some transferred several times.  The #1 reclassified UP a year to get him in the draft earlier out of college.

When we were made aware of some of the players committments, I had to ask my son if he wanted to play behind some of those players for 4 years.  He wound up charting his own path being an early commit to an instate HA college.   He started as a freshman.  I think he played all but 2 games in three years.  He excelled on and off the field and was drafted as a junior.

P5 doesn't mean a thing if you are sitting the bench.  Or off the roster.

Looking carefully at the sizes of each grad years recruiting class is important.   You don't want to commit to a P5 that is bringing in 18 players for each grad class during a time when the NCAA is granting extra years of eligibility making it harder.   My son was fortunate to find a home with a D1 program that is highly competitive but also carefully limits their class sizes and doesn't over recruit for his position.   Choosing to go where you are "loved" is especially important right now.   Don't waste time chasing schools who don't feel the same way about you as you do them.    Also, don't base your kids ability and potential landing spot on rankings.   Those are so unbelievably subjective based on the individual scouting agency.  My son is ranked in in the top ten for our state and top 200 nationally for one major scouting agency but the other (competitor) he's nowhere to be found.   Get as much video of your player (game and practice reps) as possible and get it to those target schools on your wish list.   

You will find this on here a lot but just remember that your son may not qualify for juco's if he is taking a lot of classes as a dual enrollee.  But don't rule it out because the rules are changing daily as to what each juco and even conference can do when it comes to number of hours.  According to where you are there are some really good jucos and some really bad ones.  Was in Missouri for 4 years so if I can help let me know in pm.

to me, it sounds like you are on the right track.  there is a lot of noise out there, so control what you can control.  sounds like he's in a solid position.  Every year kids that commit freshman year risk having their commitment rescinded.  That really hasn't change much, although one could argue there is a higher likelihood now.  I wouldn't focus too much on what other kids are doing.. focus on finding the right fit for your son.  The reality is recruiting classes could shrink by a few spots, less money available, etc.. so in this environment, i would expand your target list and try to determine what is most important to your son/family.  Is it baseball program, academics, money, or a combination of them all.  Your son may be faced with a decisions between stronger baseball programs that may be crowded vs higher academic schools that may have lesser baseball programs, but offer higher likelihood of playing time, etc.  Those are decisions down the road but knowing those answers will help identifying programs to target.   There are some great posts on getting recruited in this environment out there.  get creative, get aggressive.   good luck!   

Get to camps at his top choices (provided he could play there).  Easiest way to really be seen. Send video, have club coach reach out, send emails.

@4arms posted:

  My son was fortunate to find a home with a D1 program that is highly competitive but also carefully limits their class sizes and doesn't over recruit for his position.   Choosing to go where you are "loved" is especially important right now.   

Great advice and congrats.

@keewart posted:

P5 doesn't mean a thing if you are sitting the bench.  Or off the roster.

Exactly.  Thanks for the response.

@Dadbelly2023 posted:

Hi KP.  This site has been great for helping me understand my 2023s probabilities in baseball.  I used to think of course he can play anywhere.  He's similar to your boy in some ways.  He's smart.  4.0 uwgpa at one of supposed top HS in usa.  #1 in class currently.   7.0  sixty, 85 EV tee,  82 inf velo.  But I don't suspect he is top 30 in state.  He's 5ft 9 and 148 lbs.  ( In 2 years he ll be ... 5ft 9... 160lb.. )  SS/CF/3 hole.  Plays on the #2 team for a large travel program.  So the reality check here has admittedly been a bit hard but helpful.  I don't think anything but a D3 is in the cards for him, especially now w covid.  Which is fine.  We are focused on going to the best academic fit and trying to make sure he doesn't go somewhere where they are over recruiting just for the tuition money.   Best wishes. holidaybelly2023

Thanks dad Belly I resemble your user name and sounds like our kids are similar in terms of numbers. 6.78 sixty, 90 EV, 83 IF, 78  Catcher velo according to PBR in the early summer.  Top tool  is as a defensive catcher and it's not even very close.    5'8 at the start of the season and 5'10 now and probably has 1 or 2 inches left in him.

If his numbers were a little lower I might back him off the P5 dream too but I think that for a kid that hasn't turned 16 yet, even with COVID, we'll look at all the options for a little while longer but I can see our focus changing over time like yours did.

@KennieProton posted:

Any thoughts on your approach would be appreciated.

I see that your location is the Midwest.  Where has his recruiting focus been, midwest, northeast, southeast, etc?

Does your son play another position?  Would he be willing to?  Catcher is the hardest position to find playing time if you have to sit behind the stud.  Many guys who get recruited as catchers, usually end up leaving for that reason.

Personally, I think that being recruited from an out of area program is going to be tough.  Many coaches, due to budget restraints, will stay within their state or neighboring state.

With that being said, programs are recruiting 2023, 2024.  Don't let those extra years awarded, scare you, most coaches don't want players around for  anymore than they have to be. 

JMO

@TPM posted:

With that being said, programs are recruiting 2023, 2024.  Don't let those extra years awarded, scare you, most coaches don't want players around for  anymore than they have to be.

JMO

Can you explain how this is occurring during a dead period with no camps?  How are they actually recruiting 23s and 24 ?  How does the contact work?   Are they just offering based on trusted sources and film or actually recruiting?  

serious question not being facetious.

@KennieProton posted:

Can you explain how this is occurring during a dead period with no camps?  How are they actually recruiting 23s and 24 ?  How does the contact work?   Are they just offering based on trusted sources and film or actually recruiting?  

serious question not being facetious.

Tried to send you a pm but wont allow me to.

it should work. Thx

@KennieProton posted:

it should work. Thx

Wont allow to start a private message. Why dont you start by sending me a pm. Let's see if that works.

Just tried. I did have a PW issue and had to reset.  Might work now.  Thanks for your trouble

It does.

@TPM posted:

Tried to send you a pm but wont allow me to.

@KennieProton posted:

Can you explain how this is occurring during a dead period with no camps?  How are they actually recruiting 23s and 24 ?  How does the contact work?   Are they just offering based on trusted sources and film or actually recruiting?  

serious question not being facetious.

I’d like to know as well. Can anyone explain this? Feel free to PM

@KennieProton posted:

Can you explain how this is occurring during a dead period with no camps?  How are they actually recruiting 23s and 24 ?  How does the contact work?   Are they just offering based on trusted sources and film or actually recruiting?  

serious question not being facetious.

You have gotten bad information. Recruiting efforts for classes of 2021 and forward are much reduced from prior years. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

@adbono posted:

You have gotten bad information. Recruiting efforts for classes of 2021 and forward are much reduced from prior years. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

What bad info? 

@TPM posted:

What bad info?

Competitive programs are giving scholarships to returning seniors at the expense of incoming freshmen. It’s going on all over the country. Not all of them but more than not. They would rather have proven players than inexperienced HS kids. Coaches at those kind of programs will take proven players over unproven HS players 100 times out of 100.  Every NCAA decision that prolongs that situation just makes it worse. People that say coaches will give preference to incoming freshmen (because they are the future) are dreaming.

@adbono posted:

Competitive programs are giving scholarships to returning seniors at the expense of incoming freshmen. It’s going on all over the country. Not all of them but more than not. They would rather have proven players than inexperienced HS kids. Coaches at those kind of programs will take proven players over unproven HS players 100 times out of 100.  Every NCAA decision that prolongs that situation just makes it worse. People that say coaches will give preference to incoming freshmen (because they are the future) are dreaming.

You are going on the assumption that more programs than less can afford to give out money for grad school. Coaches are definetly recruiting, 22, 23 and 24s. Maybe not in Texas because they just prefer to beat up on each other!

@2025prospect posted:

I’d like to know as well. Can anyone explain this? Feel free to PM

Feel free to PM me, however, I am not a fan of committing too early.