I appreciate the acknowledgment by @russinfortworth. Had a chance to see his kid play last year when they took a swing thru North Texas.
In a nutshell this is my litmus test for recruiting after seeing what I have seen over the past few decades.
If a player is getting legitimate draft interest he is probably capable of getting significant D1 innings as a freshman
If a player is getting significant D1 interest (and multiple offers) he is probably capable of contributing at a D1 in his sophomore/junior year.
If a player is a tweener, getting mostly D2 interest but some D1, he should focus on the D2 offers. Do not turn down a D2 scholarship to walk on at a D1.
If a player is getting solid D2 offers he is probably capable of contributing at a D2 during his sophomore/junior year.
If a player is getting D3/NAIA interest (and offers) the first thing to determine is why he is being recruited. Is it b/c he is good enough to help the team win? Is it because his high GPA will help the team average? Is it because his tuition revenue will help fund the program? D3 programs often carry large rosters so it’s important to understand the pecking order. Many D3 rostered players seldom, if ever, see the field.
Notice that nothing said to this point mentions playing time as a freshman
If a player is receiving legitimate JuCo interest (scholarship offers) then he is probably capable of a meaningful contribution as a freshman. If offers are “walk on only” the same areas of caution apply that were mentioned in regard to D3/NAIA. Special attention should be paid to JV programs. They normally exist as a source of revenue - not a place to develop and move up.
If a player is only receiving walk on offers the writing is on the wall. It means that no school that has seen that player deems him worthy of a scholarship. That doesn’t necessarily mean the kid can’t play. But it does mean that he hasn’t proved that he can. This is the time when a player has to get very realistic about what his goals are and what his baseball future will look like, if there is one.
IMO, the overwhelming majority of HS players (that are legit college prospects) should go the JuCo route. By definition, the overwhelming majority would not include the top 5% of HS players. But most HS players are not finished products. They are still developing their game. And to continue developing they have to play. And they will play in JuCo before they would get on the field at almost any competitive 4 year program.
The level of play in the better JuCo programs is much higher than most people think. Don’t assume that just because a HS player is a HS Varsity starter he is good enough to play JuCo baseball. This is especially true in the smaller classifications. I saw a 4A HS (6A is largest class in TX) second round playoff game on Saturday. Not one player on either team was good enough to play in NJCAA Region 5.
There are always exceptions but as a general rule all of the above applies. I hope this is helpful to someone.