.

@adbono posted:

If you don’t like what I have to say don’t read it.

I don't believe I disagree with you. I didn't see you call for schools to be closed, private employers to police ridiculous government mandates made by some unknown OSHA committee with made up penalties , request for people to have proof of vaccination to enter buildings, terminating first responders for refusing to vac or the rest of the insanity that currently being designed and implemented.

The anger is crazy around the country between people, do your research and do what you need to do and deal with the consequences, end of discussion. I have been hearing for 18 months every time something new pops up this is the one that is going to wipe us all out...this is life deal with it and keep moving.

This site proudly tells teenage boys with a dream playing baseball to man up suck it up and get over it. Well it is time for adults to realize this is real life, live it or don't it is your choice. Deal with it.

Not so much the term "mis-information' from most average persons, which would imply everyone is trying to deceive, as it is mis-understanding or passing of incorrect information or anecdotal information as fact.

At full vaccination the amount of covid is less in breakthrough cases and for Delta the time period for the ability to spread the disease is less.  Both result in decreasing the ability to spread the disease to someone else.  Vaccinating against an airborn virus protect both yourself and others around you to a degree, which is better than not at all.  An airborn virus relies on new hosts, the longer it exists the greater the opportunity to mutate, the more mutations the greater likelihood of re-infection or breakthrough by circumventing the natural or vaccine induced anti-bodies, which decrease in both over time.  Sometimes it mutates to a more infectious but less dangerous variant and burns itself out, sometimes to the opposite.  Omicron is now out there, determined more contagious, but unknown yet if more dangerous.  Please don't use the fact that information is coming out realtime and and then later more information comes out, to state scientist don't know what they are saying or contradict themselves. Or mixed information is given.  It's a real-time situation that is Novel.

Remember the Spanish Flu Pandemic lasted 5 years and at a time when international travel was no where near what it is today, but also no vaccine for 25years...  The reason this virus is so difficult is because it is mild in so many people.  Swine Flu, MaRS, Sars, etc. knocked people on their asses and then burned through them very fast, limiting the amount of time they could be out spreading it.  Far more deadly in the immediate, but less so than covid can be over time.  Less populated areas feel the effects at a much lower total numbers, but can still keep the virus alive.

Much of the problem is people hear what they want to hear, and Scientist tell you both sides of the story, the problem , media jumps on the headlines.  Don't use terms like, "breakthrough" as an excuse to say it's not effective, and therefore why get the vaccine.  The vaccines are highly effective if you get all of them, and as things mutate, the vaccines will need to keep up.  Viruses that can mutate are not a one and done things, as we wish could be in today's want it now, quick fix society.  95% effective was unheard of,  if it were only 65% that's still huge.

Seriously, though, the longer people hold out on vaccination, the longer this whole thing lasts.

PS. The actual studies are out there as they get peer reviewed and published, and you can read them.  Don't rely on secondary information.  Once a study is determined scientifically significant (able to repeat itself consistently at 95% or greater confidence) it's pretty solid,  having more and more or larger cohorts is generally not necessary.

Also, it is pretty common around here for schools and universities to do online classes around breaks, part of it is to upgrade and practice them so they become more effective as this is not a thing that is going to be over soon or never happen again.

Regardless of what you believe, most people will contract the virus at some point in time. Regardless of vaccination status and regardless of what % of the population has done whatever to try and prevent it.  The point is to expect it to happen and have a plan of action prepared beforehand. That involves having some proactive conversations with your PCP. Don’t wait to contract the virus before finding out what to do when you get it.

@HSDad22 posted:

Not so much the term "mis-information' from most average persons, which would imply everyone is trying to deceive, as it is mis-understanding or passing of incorrect information or anecdotal information as fact.

At full vaccination the amount of covid is less in breakthrough cases and for Delta the time period for the ability to spread the disease is less.  Both result in decreasing the ability to spread the disease to someone else.  Vaccinating against an airborn virus protect both yourself and others around you to a degree, which is better than not at all.  An airborn virus relies on new hosts, the longer it exists the greater the opportunity to mutate, the more mutations the greater likelihood of re-infection or breakthrough by circumventing the natural or vaccine induced anti-bodies, which decrease in both over time.  Sometimes it mutates to a more infectious but less dangerous variant and burns itself out, sometimes to the opposite.  Omicron is now out there, determined more contagious, but unknown yet if more dangerous.  Please don't use the fact that information is coming out realtime and and then later more information comes out, to state scientist don't know what they are saying or contradict themselves. Or mixed information is given.  It's a real-time situation that is Novel.

Remember the Spanish Flu Pandemic lasted 5 years and at a time when international travel was no where near what it is today, but also no vaccine for 25years...  The reason this virus is so difficult is because it is mild in so many people.  Swine Flu, MaRS, Sars, etc. knocked people on their asses and then burned through them very fast, limiting the amount of time they could be out spreading it.  Far more deadly in the immediate, but less so than covid can be over time.  Less populated areas feel the effects at a much lower total numbers, but can still keep the virus alive.

Much of the problem is people hear what they want to hear, and Scientist tell you both sides of the story, the problem , media jumps on the headlines.  Don't use terms like, "breakthrough" as an excuse to say it's not effective, and therefore why get the vaccine.  The vaccines are highly effective if you get all of them, and as things mutate, the vaccines will need to keep up.  Viruses that can mutate are not a one and done things, as we wish could be in today's want it now, quick fix society.  95% effective was unheard of,  if it were only 65% that's still huge.

Seriously, though, the longer people hold out on vaccination, the longer this whole thing lasts.

PS. The actual studies are out there as they get peer reviewed and published, and you can read them.  Don't rely on secondary information.  Once a study is determined scientifically significant (able to repeat itself consistently at 95% or greater confidence) it's pretty solid,  having more and more or larger cohorts is generally not necessary.

Also, it is pretty common around here for schools and universities to do online classes around breaks, part of it is to upgrade and practice them so they become more effective as this is not a thing that is going to be over soon or never happen again.

and to think I didn't know Fauci had a kid playing baseball...

DADBELLY2023: Doesn't it strike you as a bit weird that there is not a mass program to see who has antibodies and natural immunity?

Yes, Bingo ^^^^^^^^^^^  This would eliminate a lot of tension.  I bet a lot of people not vaccinated had Covid and trust its natural immunity.  I had Covid, however I did proceed to get a vax to eliminate potential conflicts with travel.

My Son is at Middlebury.  All the admin did was shorten by roughly two days, the kids went right to Zoom and all was fine.  Son and most of his peers had lots of writing clasess where the final was an essay, so not a big deal.  His only final was converted to "take home exam".  Admin did a decent job of quickly trying to mitigate the spread.  The group of now 68 exposed kids (as of Dec 13) were primarily two groups that hang out frequently.  Last Thursday Midd had 50 exposed (48 students, 2 employees).

Sons baseball team was unaffected.  Middlebury stated all can remain on campus and proceed with their original travel plans.  They did however institute a requirement for all students, faculty, and staff who are eligibleto receive COVID-19 booster shots by February 14, 2022, unless they have an approved medical or religious exemption.

This is a yale epidemiologist labelled by Fauci as a spreader of misinformation and ignored by CNN.

https://thefederalist.com/2021...tion/?utm_source=rss

Presented without comment...

@HSDad22  With all due respect, I think the "that's anecdotal" argument is everything that's wrong with the science devotes.  I found this definition of anecdotal - Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis.  Through one lens, this implies anecdotal evidence is something you can't trust and that scientific analysis is king.  That - or anything close to that - is garbage.  We're all adults here, right?  Let's get a quick show of hands of who lives their lives and adds education and knowledge to their brains by using rigorous and scientific analysis.  We've all accumulated TONS of knowledge and information from our own casual observations.  If fact, how many would argue their actual life experiences only represent a small piece of their knowledge?  And that the majority of what they know to be true all stems from rigorous and scientific analysis?  This is a baseball forum, right?  Then why on earth are we here sharing our own personal anecdotes instead of rigorously scientifically analyzing the math/science/physics of baseball?  The idiots we are with these casual observations! Bunsen burners are the only way we can get relevant data.

I love science and math - my best subjects in school.  I'm fully vaccinated (Pfizer) and 47.  But 3 weeks ago, I tested positive for Covid.  I had a fairly rough couple weeks, but I'm largely better now.  Did everyone already hear my very real story from their local scientist?  No?  Well, then science has let you down.  No problem.  I am willing to step in - in science's absence - and tell you exactly what happened to me.  Because it's real and it matters.  Let's not for one second pretend that science is comprehensive.  These silly little "anecdotal" stories are supplements to science.  @adbono 's story is a supplement to the science. So are all the rest. And they're NECESSARY to a larger understanding because science is limited.  It would be amazing if those strongly pushing the "follow the science" narrative would take a moment and show some humility and accountability, but the powers that be have deemed that is too risky.  For those who want to live their lives in a laboratory, knock yourself out.  Me, I am going to get input from science labs AND the real world and walk away with something closer to comprehensive. And ultimately, more human.

I swore I wasn't going to add to this.  Currently the science says that Pfizer (and presumably Moderna) vaccines are only 65% effective after 6 months and when faced with a different variant of the virus.  Lo and behold, we have anecdotes from several members that they were vaccinated and got covid recently.  So, the anecdotes are actually bearing out the science.

Is the complaint that the science originally said that if you were vaccinated, you wouldn't get covid?  When faced with a completely new disease, which mutates as we watch, science keeps changing.  How is that controversial?

@adbono posted:

Regardless of what you believe, most people will contract the virus at some point in time. Regardless of vaccination status and regardless of what % of the population has done whatever to try and prevent it.  The point is to expect it to happen and have a plan of action prepared beforehand. That involves having some proactive conversations with your PCP. Don’t wait to contract the virus before finding out what to do when you get it.

I completely agree with this.  Personally, I would rather get covid after I'm partially protected by vaccines, and after there are medications available that can help me recover.  That's why I have been cautious.  Also, if I have to go to a hospital, I would rather that the staff was not completely overwhelmed with covid cases and burned out from taking care of people.  That's why I would rather other people be cautious.

@anotherparent posted:

I swore I wasn't going to add to this.  Currently the science says that Pfizer (and presumably Moderna) vaccines are only 65% effective after 6 months and when faced with a different variant of the virus.  Lo and behold, we have anecdotes from several members that they were vaccinated and got covid recently.  So, the anecdotes are actually bearing out the science.

Is the complaint that the science originally said that if you were vaccinated, you wouldn't get covid?  When faced with a completely new disease, which mutates as we watch, science keeps changing.  How is that controversial?

I completely agree with this.  Personally, I would rather get covid after I'm partially protected by vaccines, and after there are medications available that can help me recover.  That's why I have been cautious.  Also, if I have to go to a hospital, I would rather that the staff was not completely overwhelmed with covid cases and burned out from taking care of people.  That's why I would rather other people be cautious.

I think a lot of the complaints are that science has missed a lot on this yet refuses to show some humility or accountability.  People want honesty.  They want transparency.  They want to see some humility.  Science initially had us worried about how long the virus could stay on things like shipped packages.  Science told us there was a good chance that shutting everything down down for 2 weeks had a good chance of putting this thing to bed.  The fact that science keeps changing tells us that A) science was wrong about some things and B) will be going forward.  If you easily dismiss science's mistakes as it simply "changing" or evolving, it never has to be held accountable.  We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results.  You cannot expect 330 million people to continue giving things up under a "right now we think this is better than nothing" approach.  There are lots things people have lost and given up over the last 2 years.  Serious, meaningful and important things.  And it was done under science's notion that it would help bring this to an end.  It didn't.  If you can't see why that's controversial, I can't help you.  We're all capable of giving a lot, but when science makes errors (and writes them off as "changes"), it absolutely erodes our allegiance to science.  Anybody ever sought a second opinion from another doctor and experience a different result?  If so, were you in any hurry to go back to the doctor who misdiagnosed you?  Nope.  You have a bad experience with one of those scientists and you move on to try others.  But that's not what we're doing with Covid.

DanJ I understand your points here but have to take exception to 1 key piece.

"We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results."

Not nearly enough in this country have given up a LOT or even a little. Many resisted or completely ignored it due to political leanings or other misguided reasons. So we never really gave the things science was recommending a fighting chance. That must be recognized as well.

@DanJ posted:

I think a lot of the complaints are that science has missed a lot on this yet refuses to show some humility or accountability.  People want honesty.  They want transparency.  They want to see some humility.  Science initially had us worried about how long the virus could stay on things like shipped packages.  Science told us there was a good chance that shutting everything down down for 2 weeks had a good chance of putting this thing to bed.  The fact that science keeps changing tells us that A) science was wrong about some things and B) will be going forward.  If you easily dismiss science's mistakes as it simply "changing" or evolving, it never has to be held accountable.  We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results.  You cannot expect 330 million people to continue giving things up under a "right now we think this is better than nothing" approach.  There are lots things people have lost and given up over the last 2 years.  Serious, meaningful and important things.  And it was done under science's notion that it would help bring this to an end.  It didn't.  If you can't see why that's controversial, I can't help you.  We're all capable of giving a lot, but when science makes errors (and writes them off as "changes"), it absolutely erodes our allegiance to science.  Anybody ever sought a second opinion from another doctor and experience a different result?  If so, were you in any hurry to go back to the doctor who misdiagnosed you?  Nope.  You have a bad experience with one of those scientists and you move on to try others.  But that's not what we're doing with Covid.

quoted because, well, it is spot on.

My complaint is we have a leader at the top (Fraudci) with too much power. He gets to claim what is real and what is misinformation. Then, the mainstream media follows along like sheep. There are some prominent medical people in his field starting to call him out. An example is this country needs to have a serious medical discussion on natural immunity. Other countries are having this conversation.

There have been doctors getting positive results with hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, for example. They’re not FDA approved for Covid. There hasn’t been enough research for medical approval. But if a doctor and patient have an honest discussion it’s now the patients decision. It’s not Fraudci’s and the media’s place to mock the alternatives as they have done.

Ivermectin has been mocked by Fraudci and the media as horse medicine. There is an adult dose. I’m not a proponent of these alternate possibilities. But, I’m open minded enough to believe they may work for some people with their doctor’s consent.

In the big picture I’m beginning to wonder how well the vaccines are working at all. I’ve had three shots so I won’t hit walls on planned international travel. As a healthy and fit person I’ve never been concerned about getting Covid even before being vaccinated.

If you look at the graph I showed above you'd see that the vaccines are working very well at preventing deaths compared to unvaccinated. Is it perfect, no, but clearly a very good idea for most, not all.

@2019&21 Dad posted:

DanJ I understand your points here but have to take exception to 1 key piece.

"We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results."

Not nearly enough in this country have given up a LOT or even a little. Many resisted or completely ignored it due to political leanings or other misguided reasons. So we never really gave the things science was recommending a fighting chance. That must be recognized as well.

Something tells me the elephant is about to come storming back in the room…and around and around we go…..

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Something tells me the elephant is about to come storming back in the room…and around and around we go…..

How is what I said bringing in elephants any more that anyone else - particularly someone immaturely using "Fraudci"? Like AnotherParent I have tried to stay out of this thread, but you can only see so much, ya know? That's it, I've said my peace. You won't see more replies from me.

@2019&21 Dad posted:

DanJ I understand your points here but have to take exception to 1 key piece.

"We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results."

Not nearly enough in this country have given up a LOT or even a little. Many resisted or completely ignored it due to political leanings or other misguided reasons. So we never really gave the things science was recommending a fighting chance. That must be recognized as well.

Do you mean people in states like say, Florida, not giving up as much as people in say, New York? Maybe California? Maybe you can enlighten us to things we need to give up.

FWIW, I'm in FL. Every single adult I know is vaccinated. Most have had Covid. A few spent several weeks in the ICU this summer when Delta ran through the state. There are a couple who lost loved ones (I didn't think it would be in good taste to ask if they were vaxxed or not). Most people here understand their risks and proceed with life accordingly.

@RJM posted:

My complaint is we have a leader at the top (Fraudci) with too much power. He gets to claim what is real and what is misinformation. Then, the mainstream media follows along like sheep. There are some medical prominent people in his field starting to call him out. An example is this country needs to have a serious medical discussion on natural immunity. Other countries are having this conversation.

There have been doctors getting positive results with hydroxychloroquine and Ivermectin, for example. They’re not FDA approved for Covid. There hasn’t been enough research for medical approval. But if a doctor and patient have an honest discussion it’s now the patients decision. It’s not Fraudci’s and the media’s place to mock the alternatives as they have done.

Ivermectin has been mocked by Fraudci and the media as horse medicine. There is an adult dose. I’m not a proponent of these alternate possibilities. But, I’m open minded enough to believe they may work for some people with their doctor’s consent.

In the big picture I’m beginning to wonder how well the vaccines are working at all. I’ve had three shots so I won’t hit walls on planned international travel. As a healthy and fit person I’ve never been concerned about getting Covid even before being vaccinated.

I was treated with Ivermectin, Steroids, Hydroxychloroquine, and Antibiotics - and that combination was effective for me. As it has been for most people that have been put on that regimen early enough. As RJM mentioned, some Drs (for reasons that are becoming obvious) won’t prescribe those medications for Covid and some Drs won’t treat Covid cases in their office. I will save you my opinion of those Drs but point is you better have a conversation with your PCP and know ahead of time if he will try to heal you or not. If not he is putting his self interests ahead of patient care. That used to be called medical malpractice.

your chart showed death rates peaking at 13 per 100k...I am sorry but that just isn't shutdown the world numbers.

I am glad you posted the chart because i would have bet the numbers were higher based on the fear factor of so many. The same chart shows death rates plummeting down to 5 per 100k...not sure what the argument actually is besides control and fear.

@2019&21 Dad posted:

How is what I said bringing in elephants any more that anyone else - particularly someone immaturely using "Fraudci"? Like AnotherParent I have tried to stay out of this thread, but you can only see so much, ya know? That's it, I've said my peace. You won't see more replies from me.

Anotherparents comments are not accusatory is all.  They are probing.  I know you think you are probing with your question but it comes across as an excuse for "science" and a troll for those that don't agree with your politics or people you think are not smart enough to be as enlightened.  I am sure you are a very good highly intelligent person and likely didn't mean it that way but your comment struck me that way.  Sorry if I took it wrong.

@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:

Something tells me the elephant is about to come storming back in the room…and around and around we go…..

It’s depends on whether the exchanges are thought out or emotional. I’m not going to judge anyone on whether they’re vaccinated or not. There are valid reasons for both. If someone starts quoting from Plandemic I’ll probably roll my eyes. Then, I’ll tell myself, “Fingers off the keyboard.”

@2019&21 Dad posted:

DanJ I understand your points here but have to take exception to 1 key piece.

"We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results."

Not nearly enough in this country have given up a LOT or even a little. Many resisted or completely ignored it due to political leanings or other misguided reasons. So we never really gave the things science was recommending a fighting chance. That must be recognized as well.

With all due respect @2019&21 Dad , I'd be extremely cautious about what you're saying about presumably millions of people.  Who are you to determine who has given up a lot and who hasn't?  If you're using mask usage and vaccination rates as your data point, man are you ever hand-cuffing yourself.  You (nor myself or anyone else) gets to determine what constitutes a lot or a little.  I like to say that Covid deaths don't hold a monopoly on tragedy.  If someone wants to use the loss of life as the #1 ultimate tragedy that comes from this pandemic, that's fine.  But there are 330 million of us just here in the states.  And you'll be hard-pressed to find a single one of those 330M that haven't lost things that are very important to them as a result of Covid.  It could be a missed xmas with grandparents, a missed senior prom, a missed opportunity to play college baseball, missed opportunities to be out in the world interacting with others and preserving mental health.  We are talking about BILLIONS of loses in this country alone that aren't loses of life.  And a good deal of them are mini-tragedies to us.  Not the end of the world and not things we can't live without, but things that were incredibly important to us and make life worth living that we can never get back.  Many of them are things we lost that were lost under one premise - losing them will help with the pandemic.  But 2 years into this, many are fairly looking back at what they lost/gave up and questioning whether or not it did any real good.  That's subjective and science can't prove that in any laboratory.   

I really struggle with "we never really gave science a fighting chance."  I'm not sure you sincerely believe that.  NEVER in our lifetimes have we done more and given up more in the name of science.  Never.  What we've afforded the science and scientists over the last 2 years is literally unprecedented.  230 Americans have gotten the Covid vaccine!  How many things can you say that 230 million have done?  Influenza kills tens of thousands each year and has for many years, yet 230M Americans haven't ever gotten vaccinated for that.  And how many Americans have ever worn a mask to help science with influenza or any other number of illnesses?  How many people gave up time with friends and family for like this for any other illness?  If this is what "never giving science a chance" looks like, you'll first need to show me some things where we did give science a fighting chance on a mass scale like we have with this.  Here is a real question I'd like a Covid scientist to answer.  In all of your recommended Covid directives, which ones did you anticipate 100% participation in?  Yet a lack of 100% participation is exactly where scientists are pointing their fingers right now.  Any scientist who anticipated 100% participation by 330M Americans is no scientist anyone should listen to.

I completely agree that many resisted or completely ignored things due to political leanings.  I'd also argue an equal number of people blindly adopted measures due to political leanings.  And those same people right now are ignoring real-world examples and "anecdotes" due to political leanings.  Don't fool yourself.  Politicians played both sides masterfully from day 1.  Take them out of the equation and we'd likely be truly working together to beat this thing.  And our approach would be equal parts left and right.  Not because it'd make everyone happy, but because compromise is smart and stands the best chance of casting the widest net.

@2019&21 Dad posted:

DanJ I understand your points here but have to take exception to 1 key piece.

"We ALL have given up a LOT to help fight this thing for 2 years.  We're absolutely willing to give up some things so long as we see the value in it; results."

Not nearly enough in this country have given up a LOT or even a little. Many resisted or completely ignored it due to political leanings or other misguided reasons. So we never really gave the things science was recommending a fighting chance. That must be recognized as well.

I would love to know who you say did not give up anything.  I did not take the shot and won't take the shot but I gave up a lot and gave a lot.  BTW, the people in my community who have suffered from Covid the most in the past 6 months are the ones who took the shots not the ones who did not.  My profession changed everything to make church work for so many.  I did four times as many services as I normally do so that my people could find some consistency in their chaotic lives.  I do not know of a single human being that did not give up much during this time.  It may not be the things that you think they should give up but they gave up.  We are a selfish people and believe that our opinion or way is the right way or some times the only way.  I believe that how we choose to live during this time is up to each of us.  We have to face the results as I preached a funeral last week for a teenager who chose to make some bad life choices and they bit him (not Covid related but drug related).  His choices cost him and those who loved him everything.  All of our choices have consequences either good or bad but they are our choices.

This would be an easier discussion if the vaccine was actually a vaccine (before the CDC changed their definition of vaccine).  This vaccine does not prevent one from getting the virus or transmitting the virus (per the CDC website),

Overlooked on the past two years is the mental health effect Covid has had in the moment and in the future. When the research is finally done I believe the results will be devastating. The recommendation will be never lock down again.

I live alone part of the week and spend half with my girlfriend. My kids are 320/420 miles away (depending on where you measure from).

The first year my g/f was in Florida with her failing mother. I didn’t see her for six months. Her mother told me to come down. There was not going to be any possibility I brought Covid into an elderly person’s house. I stayed away.

After two weeks of isolation I decided, “F it. This isn’t living.” I started biking. I did the math on the odds of dying of Covid in my county. The odds were greater I would get killed being hit on my bike. I used to wait until it hit 50 in the spring. What I found was a reasonable number of people out biking and walking with the same attitude. I found an open pizza shop serving “to go” at the door. By coincidence (wink, wink) there just happened to be folding tables and chairs against the wall in their parking lot. I went almost every day for a slice. There were always people there.

On the flip side, I don’t believe one of my friend’s wife left her house for a year unless she was out for a ride in the car. Twenty months later she’s reluctant to leave the house. In my eyes this much fear is a mental health issue.

Note: I was at Quincy Market in Boston having lunch with friends when the Biogen annual conference was going on across the street at the Union Wharf Marriott conference center. Like I always did for business conferences a lot of people attending the conference brought their families to Boston. Quincy Market looked like it had been invaded by the Chinese. Ninety-five of the first hundred Covid cases in Massachusetts were traced back to that conference.

@RJM posted:

Overlooked on the past two years is the mental health effect Covid has had in the moment and in the future. When the research is finally done I believe the results will be devastating. The recommendation will be never lock down again.

I live alone part of the week and spend half with my girlfriend. My kids are 320/420 miles away (depending on where you measure from).

The first year my g/f was in Florida with her failing mother. I didn’t see her for six months. Her mother told me to come down. There was not going to be any possibility I brought Covid into an elderly person’s house. I stayed away.

After two weeks of isolation I decided, “F it. This isn’t living.” I started biking. I did the math on the odds of dying of Covid in my county. The odds were greater I would get killed being hit on my bike. I used to wait until it hit 50 in the spring. What I found was a reasonable number of people out biking and walking with the same attitude. I found an open pizza shop serving “to go” at the door. By coincidence (wink, wink) there just happened to be folding tables and chairs against the wall in their parking lot. I went almost every day for a slice. There were always people there.

On the flip side, I don’t believe one of my friend’s wife left her house for a year unless she was out for a ride in the car. Twenty months later she’s reluctant to leave the house. In my eyes this much fear is a mental health issue.

Note: I was at Quincy Market in Boston having lunch with friends when the Biogen annual conference was going on across the street at the Union Wharf Marriott conference center. Like I always did for business conferences a lot of people attending the conference brought their families to Boston. Quincy Market looked like it had been invaded by the Chinese. Ninety-five of the first hundred Covid cases in Massachusetts were traced back to that conference.

My wife is a teacher. Wait until you see how far kids have fallen academically. The mental health part of it is sad. My wife tutors a bunch of kids every week after school. Most of the time she ends up counselling them. She's had to tell the parents to get a couple of them professional help.

"I found this definition of anecdotal - Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis.  Through one lens, this implies anecdotal evidence is something you can't trust and that scientific analysis is king." - Danj

Um, it's not through one lens, it's exactly what it means. The term isn't' thrown around, it's a clear understanding that the observation isn't proven yet.  It's why science exists, to prove something.  I'm sure Armstrong wouldn't have been so happy to go rocketing into space if everything was just based on somebodies theory or story. The whole "science is king" thing is your own hangup.  Many scientific endeavors begin with anecdotal evidence, but it needs to be proven before you can state it as more than chance.

Are the anecdotal stories told, factual, of course they are, but is the conclusion drawn from them accurate, can you then generalize it to happen all the time, or could it potentially be faulty "cause and effect" logic.

If you like checking out definitions.  Go look up "Scientific Method"  that should give you a clearer picture of how science proves things.

or watch this fun rendition of faulty cause and effect logic.  https://youtu.be/zrzMhU_4m-g

Either way, enjoy.

Anecdote says: I was vaccinated, I got covid, I took these meds, I recovered.

Science says: 1000 men with your age and health conditions got covid, 500 vaxxed and 500 not. Of each 500, half were given those meds, and half were not. Here are the outcomes for each of the four groups.

It's just like D1 baseball players; half make it, half don't.  Your experience may be in either group, but that doesn't mean it will apply to me.

Cornell shuts down the Ithaca campus after Virus surge.   903 cases over the week, 276 positives yesterday, 4.18% + rate.   Lot more students than Middlebury but pretty big numbers.

Tried to link the Cornell covid dashboard but was unable to get that to work. User error.

Danj:  230 million Americans have been vaccinated. How many things can you say that 230 million have done?

230 million Americans voted for Biden.  No, wait, they voted for Trump.   No, no, man: they didn't vote at all.

Cornell is 97% vaccinated.  And yet... 

I've been on author on 4 medical studies: 1 cardiothoracic surgery.  1 ENT bacterial adhesion study in chinchillas (I hated that one.  It was like Fauci and the beagles).  1 anesthesia related to cardiac surgery.  1 cancer study.  I was the primary on the cancer study.   I think I can analyze papers now.    I can assure everyone here that study bias is a real risk.   

Do you know how many studies are backed by big pharma?  OK, I don't actually know but it is A LOT.  After 30 years at my job as a physician scientist, I take ALL studies, "SCIENCE," with a grain of salt, particularly when pertains to medications. 

Let me tell you about Fauci's Rundeathisnear.  His original study did not actually show a reduction in mortality with use of the drug.  So what he did was change the protocol in mid study.  Not once but actually twice.  He changed the endpoint to not reflect mortality outcomes but rather duration of hospitalization.  From that standpoint, he was able to show slight benefit.  Of course, he ignored the fact that the Rundeathisnear group had double the readmission rate.  Then he pushed through an Emergency use authorization for it through the FDA leading to Trump buying 500k doses for Americans from Gilead.   Multiple study after study since have shown it is NOT effective in either mortality or hospital stay.  Think Fauci has a relationship with Gilead?  Well yes he does.  Just like he and his staff have with Moderna.   Did you know that the NIAID has hundreds of vaccine patents?  Did you know that his department and many of his scientists get royalties from big pharma?   Think there is a risk associated with this?  I do.   

So I believe in science.  I also believe people have biases and hidden agendas like power and greed.   I have become more humble in my career.  I listen to patients better now than when I was younger.  I understand that when people describe their experiences, their anecdotes, that often there is valuable information within.   Seems to me that this thread's small snapshot of people who have been vaccinated and still got COVID or got COVID twice or had adverse reactions to the vaccine is very interesting and valuable information. 

BTW, I've found studies that suggest the risk of myocarditis after vaccination is 1 in 360, 1 in 1000, or 1 in 50,000 in their age group. Tell me what the correct science is there.  My teenage boys are not vaccinated.  I don't know if that is the right thing to do or not.  So I roll with my gut feeling.  While me, a 55 y.o. overweight male, likely has benefit with the vaccine, I don't believe it has enough benefit for them.   Anecdotally, the 5 fold increase in young male athletes in the past 2 years experiencing chest pain/SOB/heart attacks gives me pause.   How do I sleep at night with this decision to not vaccinate them?  Pretty well given the overall stress.  I believe it is my American right to make the best decision I can for my family members.  I don't really give a @#$@ what anyone else thinks of it.  Finally, letting almost 2 million people illegally across the southern border each year with nary a care about their COVID or vaccine status makes me want to blow chow.  I can't wait until I'm 70 and can really take the filter off.  Bob, you are lucky. 

Take that filter off!

“Aw, look at all these photos of us wearing masks, back when we were all able to live aboveground.”

OK, I"m Done.

@anotherparent posted:

It's just like D1 baseball players; half make it, half don't.  Your experience may be in either group, but that doesn't mean it will apply to me.

You're absolutely right.  It doesn't mean it'll apply to you.  It also doesn't mean it WON'T apply to you.  It also doesn't mean that aren't things to be learned and perspectives to consider from listening to others' anecdotes.

Some of these comments around anecdotal evidence have me giggling.  99% of our lives and almost everything we know is anecdotal, yet some seem interested in dismissing it.  Or using it as some twisted punch line.  For those that want to worship science, have at it.  I'll be out collecting my own very real experiences, listening to others' experiences, using science for some input and forming conclusions for all the input I've gathered.  Science has limits that necessitate us mere mortals factor in our own experiences and think for ourselves at times.  Anyone convinced that trump is a bad person?  Bad news from the science world, I'm afraid.  Your conclusions on trump are anecdotal.  The only way you can be 100% sure he's bad, is through science, so best to keep your anecdotes quiet until your Bunsen burners heat up.  Love your children and want others to believe it?  Sorry, without science, your conclusions can't be proven.  Your love for them is simply anecdotal.

I'm obviously being silly, but my experiences throughout Covid - while very real and meaningful to me - are often quickly dismissed as "anecdotal" by those who have different opinions than I do.  Each of us is largely made up of thousands of anecdotes accumulated throughout life.  Anyone who can look you in the eye and tell you that they only form conclusions in their lives when something is scientifically proven, is a liar.  I'm simply looking for a little humility from those that would tell you to die on the hill of science and ignore any anecdotes that dispute it.  The elite stench that comes off it is often offensive and demeaning to those who don't run everything they know through rigorous scientific analysis.  There is so much about being human that science has no equation or explanation for.  And there are a TON of human elements involved in this pandemic.  Quickly dismiss those human elements under the cold arrogant (and sometimes wrong) hand of science and good luck solving the equation for this pandemic.  Human nature and independent thinking are things science never factored into their brilliant plan to save the world from Covid.  Is it any wonder their plan hasn't worked on humans?

@Dadbelly2023 brings up some interesting stuff on big pharma.  It's all anecdotal, but interesting nonetheless.  It got me thinking.  How long has big pharma been the devil?  A long time and for a lot of reasons including the creation the opioid crisis.  But does anyone find it interesting how many people are now standing right beside big pharma and what they're pushing right now?  I'm genuinely interested in what's caused the sea change with those people.  Was it Biden?  Fauci?  Exactly who convinced you big pharma is now capable of being our saviors despite an atrocious track record?

@DanJ posted:

@Dadbelly2023 brings up some interesting stuff on big pharma.  It's all anecdotal, but interesting nonetheless.  It got me thinking.  How long has big pharma been the devil?  A long time and for a lot of reasons including the creation the opioid crisis.  But does anyone find it interesting how many people are now standing right beside big pharma and what they're pushing right now?  I'm genuinely interested in what's caused the sea change with those people.  Was it Biden?  Fauci?  Exactly who convinced you big pharma is now capable of being our saviors despite an atrocious track record?

When people are scared they will desperately cling to whatever makes them feel safe, hell sleepy won an election because he swore he was a nice guy.

@TerribleBPthrower posted:

My wife is a teacher. Wait until you see how far kids have fallen academically. The mental health part of it is sad. My wife tutors a bunch of kids every week after school. Most of the time she ends up counselling them. She's had to tell the parents to get a couple of them professional help.

This is the biggest problem, but this doesn't fit into anyone's political narrative.  The irony is that Covid will never go away, and we'll see a new variant every 6 months or so.  So what's the end game here?  I'll put money that all this fear mongering ends after November 2022.

@old_school posted:

When people are scared they will desperately cling to whatever makes them feel safe, hell sleepy won an election because he swore he was a nice guy.

Ever seen a person who claims religion is bunk call out for God in a moment of extreme stress? From flying a lot in my career (100 to 200K per year) I’ve been in a few heart beat skipping moments. When things settled down I’ve contemplated how many of the cry outs I heard came from those people.

Agreed COVID will never go away.  It will mutate and should become progressively less virulent (of course unless the concept of pathogenic priming by incomplete vaccines is real).  But the hell if Im getting a booster every 3 to 6 months.   Oh!  Did you know that Pfizer put out an estimate that they feel boosters will add 29% in covid vaccine sales raising the total sales to $36 billion.