@old_school posted:Give the left a couple weeks and it change again. Did I mention there was an insurrection…they ultimately will return to blaming trump. Could be Manchins fault…ah wait that could work.
Be careful where you go so the thread stays open.
@OskiSD posted:Lock this thread
No good reason for that request. There is a lot of good information in this thread that has been helpful to some posters.
@adbono posted:No good reason for that request. There is a lot of good information in this thread that has been helpful to some posters.
I agree. I get that the comment in question was political, but this thread certainly has not disintegrated. I have to think all of us can move past remarks with which we may disagree.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:Harvard has not canceled any basketball games yet. That does seem a little inconsistent. My hope is that cooler heads prevail and schools watch as more data rolls in. The data out of South Africa remains very favorable from a symptom standpoint. A friend of mine was driving her son home from Syracuse when his girlfriend called him. She and 27 sorority sisters all tested positive. He's still negative and the vast majority of positives are asymptomatic. Mild symptoms for the rest of them. This is the end of the pandemic. We just have to get thru the next month.
Update - friend's son just tested positive..... asymptomatic. Will update further when my friend gets a positive test. I imagine a 4 hour trip in a car with a covid positive person might not end well. She got boosted about a month ago.
@LousyLefty My sincere apologies as that must have been quite offensive given your unique situation. Of course I don't actually honk at people. It was a poor attempt at humor. Although I do look on in amazement at times, you remind me that we could all afford more grace in our lives. I do honk at people texting at 65 mph though... I can understand your caution. Just a couple hours ago I visited with a 89 yo former patient of mine who is O2 dependent. I went to her house to drop off a Christmas gift and chat. I had a mask on but she didn't. I completely freaked when she told me she had never been vaccinated. I kept moving around her living room trying to keep as far away as possible from her.
As the starter of this thread, I don't care if we lock it or not. I actually think we should try to avoid overt direct attacks on specific political parties or politicians. But the issue of what schools will do going forward with their college baseball teams seem directly relevant to many people here.
I see the Middlebury women's ultimate frisbee team won the D3 championships yesterday! My friend's daughter is on the team. Seems only the NHL is pausing. College sports will power through. NFL changing testing protocols is interesting but will it be in time to help my fantasy team? Lastly, South African new covid cases are down 3 days in a row and hospitalizations are down 20% in a week. I have to think we are in the end game of the pandemic.
I hope you are right, Gunner, but even if you are, a LOT of folks are likely to die in the process. RE South Africa, are you getting that from Bloomberg? If so, they also say this:
However, the cases were recorded with 29.9% of Covid-19 tests analyzed coming back positive, about in line with the 30.7% figure from a day earlier, the institute said. That suggests the number of tests has influenced the plunging case numbers rather than any improvement in the pandemic.
Just like early 2020, NYC is going to be the place to watch.
@JCG posted:I hope you are right, Gunner, but even if you are, a LOT of folks are likely to die in the process. RE South Africa, are you getting that from Bloomberg? If so, they also say this:
However, the cases were recorded with 29.9% of Covid-19 tests analyzed coming back positive, about in line with the 30.7% figure from a day earlier, the institute said. That suggests the number of tests has influenced the plunging case numbers rather than any improvement in the pandemic.
Just like early 2020, NYC is going to be the place to watch.
I was in NYC yesterday (and last Tuesday) and can tell you it's packed. Good point on the decline in tests but also fewer are testing because the symptoms are mild and hospitalizations are down 20%. Omicron is now something like 70% of US covid cases, it's the dominant strain already overtaking Delta. Omicron clearly spreads FAST!
I'm amazed at the number of people I talk to from the northeast who have either never heard of Regeneron or have no idea where to get it. Early treatment saves lives.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:Update - friend's son just tested positive..... asymptomatic. Will update further when my friend gets a positive test. I imagine a 4 hour trip in a car with a covid positive person might not end well. She got boosted about a month ago.
Update #2 - my friend just tested negative. She is a super covid firewall. Double vaccinated and boosted about a month ago. A four+ hour car ride with a covid + son and then 4 days in the same home and negative. Son and his girlfriend are still asymptomatic. Good to hear.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:I was in NYC yesterday (and last Tuesday) and can tell you it's packed. Good point on the decline in tests but also fewer are testing because the symptoms are mild and hospitalizations are down 20%. Omicron is now something like 70% of US covid cases, it's the dominant strain already overtaking Delta. Omicron clearly spreads FAST!
It's over 70% of new cases, so yes, it's dominant, but because the hospitals are currently full of Delta cases, it will be a while before we see what our future looks like.
The shuttle (full-size charter bus) to the airport is packed. They had to run two shuttles.
I wish I shared your optimism about this thing being near the end game. The NHL pausing is not something I think they'll be alone on. When has any org/group shut something down during Covid and been alone? As has been said, Omicron spreads very fast/well, so expect that to continue. If the symptoms are milder and hospitalizations are down, that'll be great, but I don't see that being enough to declare anything remotely resembling an end game. Maybe others are experiencing something very different from me, but in my personal universe (so first hand and second hand), I've known more people who've had Covid in the last 6-8 weeks than the previous 22ish months combined. The last 2 months have been very different for me and those I'm connected with, so that makes me hesitant to believe we're approaching any sort of clearing.
Even if we have less people dying, less in hospital beds, and less severe symptoms, we can still have lots of people out there testing positive. If you're not in the hospital and your symptoms are milder, you're more likely to be out there living your life. Working, spending time with family and friends, etc. That's what we do if we're not hurting very bad, so I'm anticipating the sheer numbers of people who have it to go up. Some will take comfort if deaths and hospitalizations are down, but there is a very real percentage of people who focus on the sheer number of cases and clam up/shut down due to that alone. I had Covid a month ago (fully vaxxed - "breakthrough" case) and can tell you from experience that NO ONE is interested in being around you when you have it. Even if they're fully vaxxed and/or have already had it.
While I think we should all fear it to some degree, some people's fears have subsided at least somewhat over the last 2 years. I'm not arguing for anyone to take Covid lightly, but there are lots of people out there who are still on the extreme side of fearing this thing - big time. Their numbers are so great that I struggle to see them feeling any better if deaths and hospitalizations lessen. Not judging; just telling it like I see it.
@DanJ posted:I wish I shared your optimism about this thing being near the end game. The NHL pausing is not something I think they'll be alone on. When has any org/group shut something down during Covid and been alone? As has been said, Omicron spreads very fast/well, so expect that to continue. If the symptoms are milder and hospitalizations are down, that'll be great, but I don't see that being enough to declare anything remotely resembling an end game. Maybe others are experiencing something very different from me, but in my personal universe (so first hand and second hand), I've known more people who've had Covid in the last 6-8 weeks than the previous 22ish months combined. The last 2 months have been very different for me and those I'm connected with, so that makes me hesitant to believe we're approaching any sort of clearing.
Even if we have less people dying, less in hospital beds, and less severe symptoms, we can still have lots of people out there testing positive. If you're not in the hospital and your symptoms are milder, you're more likely to be out there living your life. Working, spending time with family and friends, etc. That's what we do if we're not hurting very bad, so I'm anticipating the sheer numbers of people who have it to go up. Some will take comfort if deaths and hospitalizations are down, but there is a very real percentage of people who focus on the sheer number of cases and clam up/shut down due to that alone. I had Covid a month ago (fully vaxxed - "breakthrough" case) and can tell you from experience that NO ONE is interested in being around you when you have it. Even if they're fully vaxxed and/or have already had it.
While I think we should all fear it to some degree, some people's fears have subsided at least somewhat over the last 2 years. I'm not arguing for anyone to take Covid lightly, but there are lots of people out there who are still on the extreme side of fearing this thing - big time. Their numbers are so great that I struggle to see them feeling any better if deaths and hospitalizations lessen. Not judging; just telling it like I see it.
We went through this in FL in August-September. Started seeing more people we were friends with get it, more people we knew going to hospitals, and even had a couple people we knew die of Covid. The Delta symptoms were no joke. Even a few vaxxed people I knew were down hard for a couple of weeks. I don't make it my business to ask who has the shot and who doesn't, but those people offered that info early in the conversation.
The turning point seemed to be when monoclonal antibody treatment sites were set up and accessible to everyone. Seems like almost overnight the problem went away. Test positive, go get your treatment, 24-48 hours later you are good as new.
I don't know why the term "breakthrough" is still being used. The vaccine does not prevent one from getting Covid or transmitting. There is nothing breakthrough about it, The symptoms of Omicron are mild and we should be moving on from the panic, but I do thing politics is playing a role in keeping the panic alive.
@Smitty28, there is no doubt that politics is playing a huge role in keeping the panic alive. And the vaccines seem to be facilitating the spread (to varying degrees) instead of stemming the tide.
I had the monoclonal antibody infusion - and while I think it helped - I most certainly was not good as new 24-48 hours later. Maybe 120-144 hours or so later.
Agreed. I think "breakthrough" was an optimistic label that has outgrown it's time. Needs to be retired and replaced because there are people who honestly believe they're very rare.
I'd argue that politics is both keeping the panic alive AND keeping doubts alive. We're long overdue to have a calm, open-minded conversation in good faith about Covid. We need a solution that is 50% cautious and 50% brave, but no one is currently selling that. And few would buy it, if available.
Last night I saw/heard a doctor from Johns Hopkins saying Omicron has taken over as the dominant version of Covid. Given most people will have mild symptoms it’s Fraudci, CDC and media fear mongering to speak in terms of positive tests. He said the number to watch is the percentage of hospitalizations relative to positive tests.
Fraudci lost credibility with me when he posed poolside in sunglasses for a style magazine. He’s more interested in being a media star than a medical professional.
What Fraudci really is is a very powerful unelected politician who has power and control over billions of dollars of research funding. Those who disagree and criticize him are risking being cut off from funding. So much for honest discussion on Covid.
I agree with RJM here about watching hospitalizations. I see the US had 250k cases on Monday and that Fauci says to expect a doubling of cases every two days. The UK said the exact same thing last week (they are a week or so ahead of us). Cases in the Uk were down small yesterday but basically flat the past 5 days. I understand that public health officials need to be conservative in their advice but if we are to double every two days by Christmas we should be seeing *1mm cases per day, by next Monday *2m cases per day. oh the power of doubling..... Let's watch to see where cases actually do go but I suspect and of course hope Fauci is way off. But to RJM's point, we should follow hospitalizations. My opinion remains that we are in the end game here for the pandemic. The endemic that follows will lead to deaths annually just like the flu but maybe there is a way to we can treat Covid better.
Son is on the roster to travel to Texas in Feb too (as things stand right now) so I am hopeful that trip happens. So it's possible I am more optimistic than I usually am.....
* to be clear I am not saying cases in the US won't go higher or that UK is done going higher, just stating for data and prognostications.
I was in Boston doing some errands before flying out. For anyone in the Boston area they’re giving out free at home Covid tests around the city. Since I was walking by the Boston Public Library I took the eight (two per package) I was allowed. They’re iHealth Antigen Rapid Tests. Results in 15 minutes.
@RJM posted:I was in Boston doing some errands before flying out. For anyone in the Boston area they’re giving out free at home Covid tests around the city. Since I was walking by the Boston Public Library I took the eight (two per package) I was allowed. They’re iHealth Antigen Rapid Tests. Results in 15 minutes.
I tried to buy some rapid test at Walgreens as the family will be visiting grandparents soon. They were out. I guess the government bought them all out🤷
@Dadbelly2023 posted:I tried to buy some rapid test at Walgreens as the family will be visiting grandparents soon. They were out. I guess the government bought them all out🤷
Biden wants to give out 500,000 packages (two tests per). I offered to give one package to a friend. Then I realized it he will test himself as soon as he gets a sniffle. He already texted me he will have his wife test before she re-enters the house after a trip to DC next August. Bet you can’t guess his politics. 😀
This same kind of worrying before it happens prevented him from being more successful as a pitcher. If he went 2-0 a hitter he startled worrying about walking him. He often threw red meat on 2-0. It prevented him from getting on the mound often until senior year when he was finally good enough to overwhelm most of a lineup.
In college summer ball a teammate didn’t know we were friends. He (at same D1 as friend) commented my friend had the most talent** and the smallest balls he’s ever seen. He wasn’t wrong. My friend never dressed for a college game before giving up after soph year. The coach told him he had no future with the program. Confidence and belief in yourself can go a long way. Lack of it is a killer.
** As a lefty in the late 70’s he cruised 87. He also had an awesome pick move to first. But he never had the confidence.
If playing college baseball is a high priority it becomes very important to look at the political climate at every university - and the political leanings of the city & state that university is located in. We certainly have enough history to make pretty good predictions on who will be mist likely to cancel sports seasons. Not making that part of the evaluation process can (potentially) be a fatal oversight. A kid i coached is at Haverford College in suburban Philadelphia. He was a freshman in 2019 and played a full season. In 2020 they played something like 8 games. In 2021 he took a year off and the team played 3 games (I believe). If 2022 is also tampered with that will be 3 seasons in a row that will be disrupted - all for political purposes.
I think all will be fine. Colleges are going forward with winter sports. My alma mater had 14 of 20 on the basketball team (including coaches) get covid. They canceled two games and are now adding one game to the schedule for next Monday. I am going up there to watch them play next Wednesday. Omicron is running hot and peaking in half the time of Delta and there is a clear break with Omicron hosp rates and Delta. It is my personal opinion the US verified cases will be peaking this week or next. So many asymptomatic people are testing now to see older relatives for holidays, asymptomatic won't test post the holidays. If we follow South Africa and UK (and why wouldn't we) we will be on the way down before all kids return to campuses. Lastly - our local pharmacy got 3,000 rapid tests in yesterday and they were gone in a few hours. Today at noon they got another shipment, my wife went down and waited in line and got enough kits for our family and her sister (before her 83 year old mom comes up). $5 per kit only. I remain very positive this is the end of the pandemic.
I hope you are right Gunner, but I'm not as optimistic. Biden's speech yesterday was almost militant, so he is not backing down on his stance that Covid still needs a heavy handed approach. Add to that the lawsuits being filed against mandates and this is shaping up to get more political, not less, which will pull the colleges towards lockdowns, shutdowns and cancelations. We'll see how it plays out.
It has been political from day and has only gotten worse, I don’t expect that to change. My attorney told me today he thinks it is possible that SC will strike Biden mandate and send it back the individual states to decide on their own. That would be a blessing but there are no promises.
Adbono I can only hope the kid you know went to Haverford in spite of the baseball not for it.
I'd like to point out how prescient Adbono was on this issue. I have half my medical office including physicians out right now with COVID positivity. We are, in fact, ALL going to get COVID. Maybe you'll get it during this current surge or maybe 6-18 months from now with the next and next variants. In the long run you will get it. It doesn't matter if you are vaccinated and boosted like my staff and colleagues. Progressively it will be less virulent because of immunity from past infection. I think there will be a sea change in opinion in the next weeks as people realize this. I also think the majority of colleges play baseball this season. I don't care what these schools do at the start of January. The pressure will be too great very shortly. People are calling bullshitake on this charade of leadership at the national level.
The CDC just lowered the COVID quarantine guidelines from 10 days to 5 days. How arbitrary is that? New science? New made up science. They are making up @#$# simply because they realize that it is going to be a @#$@ storm if we can't deliver healthcare or fly airplanes with all these stranded passengers.
Just like Fuchis failed extreme focus on HIV vaccines over therapeutics 30 years ago, he did the same thing here w COVID. You can't really blame Trump or Biden for this. They were just following a masterful charlatan.
@Dadbelly2023 posted:Just like Fuchis failed extreme focus on HIV vaccines over therapeutics 30 years ago, he did the same thing here w COVID. You can't really blame Trump or Biden for this. They were just following a masterful charlatan.
It bothers me an unelected politician (I AM the science Fraudci) has so much power. As an administrator for the past thirty years he’s a politician. If scientists disagree with him publicly they may not get or lose research funding. The lack of debate makes Fraudci the arbiter of our freedom. It’s too much power for one person to have.
@Dadbelly2023 posted:I'd like to point out how prescient Adbono was on this issue. I have half my medical office including physicians out right now with COVID positivity. We are, in fact, ALL going to get COVID. Maybe you'll get it during this current surge or maybe 6-18 months from now with the next and next variants. In the long run you will get it. It doesn't matter if you are vaccinated and boosted like my staff and colleagues. Progressively it will be less virulent because of immunity from past infection. I think there will be a sea change in opinion in the next weeks as people realize this. I also think the majority of colleges play baseball this season. I don't care what these schools do at the start of January. The pressure will be too great very shortly. People are calling bullshitake on this charade of leadership at the national level.
The CDC just lowered the COVID quarantine guidelines from 10 days to 5 days. How arbitrary is that? New science? New made up science. They are making up @#$# simply because they realize that it is going to be a @#$@ storm if we can't deliver healthcare or fly airplanes with all these stranded passengers.
I see the CDC yesterday announced that the currently used PCR test is to be retired at year's end. They state that it can't differentiate between flu and covid (something I think that was known as early as late last year). The second shocker to me is that CDC now says it erred last week when it said Omicron made up close to 75% of all new covid cases for the week ending December 18th, they say it was only 23%. Omicron Christmas ending week was "up" to 59% of all covid diagnoses. That is a BIG error. Last, I had noted earlier in this thread that Fauci warned cases would double every two days. By my math, by Monday of this week, we should have had 2m cases a day. We did get 500k new cases two days ago, and 320k yesterday. It is VERY high but not doubling. It doubled in a week and 2 days (not every 2 days). Heck, it might be doubling though if there are a lot of asymptomatic but that wasn't Fauci's point.
Covid though is all around my home. Both of my kids' good friends are down with Covid and this morning my bro in law tested positive (he was here Sat). Also, a guy I knew from HS died of Covid over the weekend, didn't want to get vaccinated. I think vaccinations are a personal choice but I am happy my family is fully boosted for better outcomes if we do get Covid.
I hope everyone stays safe.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:I see the CDC yesterday announced that the currently used PCR test is to be retired at year's end. They state that it can't differentiate between flu and covid (something I think that was known as early as late last year).
WTH?
@Smitty28 posted:WTH?
My bad on timing. I knew I heard this before but it was from July. Sorry for the borderline misinformation....I should have checked the source (but a friend of mine told me this today too).
Kids both tested positive last week. No underlying conditions, double vaxed and boosted. It was a 48 hour sore throat and head cold. These vaccines are a miracle.
Dadbelly: …I also think the majority of colleges play baseball this season…
Not good enough for me. 
@OskiSD posted:Kids both tested positive last week. No underlying conditions, double vaxed and boosted. It was a 48 hour sore throat and head cold. These vaccines are a miracle.
How do we know they’re a miracle? True, the people dying are more likely to be unvaxxed. But unless we know their age, health and co-morbidities we have nothing to go on. It could be almost everyone who is healthy and without co-morbidities would have an easy go of Covid.
Our local newspaper stopped describing the age and health situations of those dying. The information wasn’t good for business. They couldn’t fear monger healthy people.
I have noticed online left leaning newspapers and daily opinion sites mock anyone unvaxxed who dies.
I got vaxxed. It’s mostly so it doesn’t interfere with an international trip I have coming up. I’m becoming skeptical. Someone in the CDC recently said we may need to be boosted every three or four months. I’m done for a year after three shots. I’m only pumping so many chemicals into my body.
@RJM posted:How do we know they’re a miracle. True, the people dying are more likely to be unvaxxed. But unless we know their age, health and co-morbidities we have nothing to go on. It could be almost everyone who is healthy and without co-morbidities would have an easy go of Covid.
Our local newspaper stopped describing the age and health situations of those dying. The information wasn’t good for business. They couldn’t fear monger healthy people.
I have noticed online left leaning newspapers and daily opinion sites mock anyone unvaxxed who dies.
I got vaxxed. It’s mostly so it doesn’t interfere with an international trip I have coming up. I’m becoming skeptical. Someone in the CDC recently said we may need to be boosted every three or four months. I’m done for a year after three shots. I’m only pumping so many chemicals into my body.
In contrast to the above, JAMA came out with an online paper yesterday. A supplement table in the study compared the outcome of approx 16,000 vaccinated people (without immune system issues) who developed breakthrough infections versus over 2 million unvaccinated but also healthy people who developed an infection during the pandemic.
Breakthrough cases were much more common than the original CDC estimates and occurred in 5 % of all vaccinated people. Notably after Delta, the rate was actually 7%.
Of the vaccinated, breakthrough cases, 16 percent required hospitalization. In comparison, 23 percent of the unvaccinated were hospitalized.
0.7 of the vaccinated breakthrough patients had serious outcomes, including death, compared to 1.9 percent of the unvaccinated patients.
The median time from vaccination to breakthrough infection was 138 days.
Older age, female sex, and a higher number of comorbidities were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of breakthrough infection. Specifically, risk for breakthrough infection increased by 30% to 40% among patients 30 years or older compared with those aged 18 to 29 years.
I think with Omicron the breakthrough rate is going to be MUCH higher than 7%.
Clearly vaccination confers benefit even in otherwise healthy people. But it is not magic which is going to do away with COVID.
@Dadbelly2023 posted:In contrast to the above, JAMA came out with an online paper yesterday. A supplement table in the study compared the outcome of approx 16,000 vaccinated people (without immune system issues) who developed breakthrough infections versus over 2 million unvaccinated but also healthy people who developed an infection during the pandemic.
Breakthrough cases were much more common than the original CDC estimates and occurred in 5 % of all vaccinated people. Notably after Delta, the rate was actually 7%.
Of the vaccinated, breakthrough cases, 16 percent required hospitalization. In comparison, 23 percent of the unvaccinated were hospitalized.
0.7 of the vaccinated breakthrough patients had serious outcomes, including death, compared to 1.9 percent of the unvaccinated patients.
The median time from vaccination to breakthrough infection was 138 days.
Older age, female sex, and a higher number of comorbidities were significantly associated with a higher likelihood of breakthrough infection. Specifically, risk for breakthrough infection increased by 30% to 40% among patients 30 years or older compared with those aged 18 to 29 years.
I think with Omicron the breakthrough rate is going to be MUCH higher than 7%.
Clearly vaccination confers benefit even in otherwise healthy people. But it is not magic which is going to do away with COVID.
This is much better data. But, it’s not so swayed in one direction to be an absolute argument for one side or the other. However, I’m skeptical when the sampling is 16.000 versus 2 million. Did the first 16.000 unvaxxed not give them the result they were hoping to find? Why isn’t the research 2 million vaxxed versus 2 million unvaxxed?
The big Biden and the left (the media) argument the unvaxxed are infecting the vaxxed turned out to be BS. Vaxxed people are getting Covid and infecting others.
I’m not anti vax. I believe my questions are reasonable.
It was a cohort study. There were like 23000 total breakthrough cases. 7k or so had immune or health issues. 16k were healthy. They simply compared the data to all unvaxed outcomes at the study med centers since start of pandemic. Thats why its a large number.
