Body type, pitching and projectibility

It's not just pitchers. The more physically mature a kid is perceived to be, the less "projection" will be attached to him. I don't know if it is true in practice, but it intuitively makes sense to me that, just to make up an example on the fly, a 6'2" 160 lbs 17 year old with a large frame who can add 50 lbs of good weight is more likely to add more velocity than a 6'2" 210 lbs 17 year old with a similar frame (i.e., who has already added that 50 lbs) is likely to add. So if they both throw 85 now, it makes sense to me to think that the first kid will likely throw harder than the second kid a few years down the line (assuming the effort levels are equal). Like I said, I don't know if it holds true in practice, but it doesn't seem crazy to me.

 

Another way of thinking about it is: "research has demonstrated a clear relationship between body mass and pitching velocity" See http://www.gammonsdaily.com/bo...-sabathia-conundrum/  So if that is true, the kid who is likely to gain body mass is more likely to gain velocity. FWIW, the relationship between body weight and velocity was apparently noticed here on HSBBW a number of years ago http://www.community.hsbasebal...peed-and-body-growth (Topic: Interesting Correlation Between Pitching Speed and Body Growth)

 

Really good response from 2019Dad.  Although I will add that as years go by the projectability gap declines.  In another year the two kids above will be 6'3" 180 lbs and 6'2" 210.  The 180 lbs kid may still be projectable but not to the extent they were 12 months back.  If they are still throwing the same speed now (or 210 lbs guy is slightly faster) then they may be on a level playing field.  I've got a lean AND young (for class) kid a little behind the class' top level but they generally have 6-9 months minimum on him (and some have 12+ months on him).  I'm hoping the "projectable" label sticks to him for a little while longer.  The good news is on the mound performance will be the final determining factor especially for college (my understanding is that MLB routinely picks some projectable pitchers - but you still have to be throwing high 80's as opposed to 95).

Sonny Grey at 5'11' was projected as a back end starter or reliever due to his size. I'm sure Lincecum was tabbed the same. There are many who proved the scouts were somewhat wrong but I doubt that will change the way players are labeled. Bigger is always better in their eyes.

I don't know about recruiters or scouts but this way of thinking is all through baseball. My 14 year old is 5'10" and just over 130. Most of the kids in the area that throw as hard as him or harder are 30 to 50 lbs bigger than him. They also look 16/17 in the face and he still looks 12. Pitching instructors, our coaches, other teams coaches, even other teams parents are constantly telling us they believe he will pass the other players. He's more projectable. So it's an idea so ingrained even the average parent believes in it.

Anyone who comes to you with "can't teach velocity" has their head in the sand.

 

That said, the entire baseball recruitment platform is so deeply based in projectibility, that it's hard to escape the prejudicial aspects of it. Smarter recruiters get that there's value in toolsy kids, regardless of shape/size/projectibility.

My son is a 6'3- 6'4 LHP weighs about 175 soaking wet but has little body fat....the first thing the coaches told him when he committed was they were gonna put him on a nutrition program and a weight program...they wanted to put at least 20 pounds on him....they said he has great projection potential....

My son committed late last summer when he was about 5'10, maybe 150.  He was up to 87 before he committed. His RC was a former pitcher at his school...and was 5'7, 140 when he played so I'm thinking size isn't a real huge thing to him.    Son grew 2" over the winter...gained 20 lbs and hit 91 his first game out this spring. He's still a scrawny 6', 170 lb kid...who has never touched a weight in his life....so I'm hoping there's plenty more to come...but I guess we'll see.

This is always a topic for parents of 14-16 that are start to go through the process....Projectability .....depends on the recruiter , the scout, the coach.... I agree with the above statements... all of them..... you see you just don't know....

It only takes one to like you....

Let's say you have a 2018 at 6'2 165 throwing 87  and  a 2018 at 5'10 140 throwing 77....

who is the projectable one? 

 

 

 

 

It seems easy to imagine the low weight, tall kid throwing harder.  That player just needs to get stronger.  It's harder to see the big kid throwing harder.  What does the muscular kid need to do?  He needs to do things that we average parents/trainers don't know or don't understand.  He needs to recruit his muscles, torque his body and limbs in ways that we (and likely most high school pitching coaches) don't know how to train I think.  Hard to screw up as a coach training a lean and lanky pitcher--just have him gain weight and get stronger--at least that's the common thinking.  I'd like to find a coach willing and able to train my less projectable kid.

There is always going to be an exception, Sonny Gray..... i watched him pitch in middle school.... and David Price in High school.....

 

The thing is... taller is usually better.... they can throw down hill better, they release closer the usually have bigger hands.... it also matters what level you are talking about.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the way home from a showcase recently, my 16year old was very distraught about his velo reading in his bullpen session with about 12 coaches watching with guns.  He sat 79-80.  He was 82-84 (85) in home stretch of HS season but seems to have dropped off of late.  Not sure if it's not practicing daily with team structure (trust me he still practices daily on his own) or what?

 

His most telling quote was, "I'm so tired of people telling me I'm going to be good.....SOME DAY!!!"  Son has been told often that he "projects" as an RHP.  He is 6-7 and 190.  Been tallest kid on most every baseball field he's been on since 8th grade. 

 

To this day I believe his abnormal height hurts him more than it helps him NOW. As he is not a fast twitcher, "explosive" or violent in his delivery.  Just long, lean, slow, consistent, dependable, reliable.  Still working towards the big #s like 86, 88, and that exclusive 90.  He works hard at it.  Just wonder if his long and lean is stopping it from happening or just delaying?  Hoping for the latter.

Never factored in: A long, lanky body is very difficult to control and repeat mechanically - both hitting and pitching. Huge negative projection there.

 

But everyone wants to see the upside and it's institutionalized. I promise that at the highest levels that many people think like this and don't change their minds. I do work for one org that actually doesn't believe this, but it's a rare mindset.

Right there with you #1.  My 6-6/195 2016 RHP just turned 17 last week, but is still very physically immature (I have more whiskers in my ears than he has on his chin and chest combined).  His velo has been all over the map over the past year as well, but generally in the same neighborhood as yours, and his delivery is similar to what you describe.  In fact, if he tries to make it more "explosive" his control goes south and it doesn't really help his velo since it disrupts his timing.

 

The good news is that it appears he will get plenty of opportunities when "some day" arrives.  (Yes, we also hear that exact term used frequently.)  He's been told by scouts and college coaches that he has the "perfect pitcher body," or at least he will when the rest of it shows up.  He even had one area scout (whom I'm told is very highly regarded) stop him to talk to him while he was in street clothes at a college game.  (All 2016 did was walk by him.)  After finding out that he was indeed a pitcher (which was about the 3rd question he asked), the scout ended up taking down 2016's name and particulars in his notes and told him "we'll see you next year."

 

But like your son, mine is starting to grow tired of hearing "some day" and is getting impatient for "some day" to arrive.  Worse, whenever he struggles he begins to doubt that "some day" will arrive.  It's an exercise in the delayed gratification, but at times a painful one not really knowing if the payoff is there.

 

Don't have any answers for you.  Just letting you know that someone else is in the same boat.

I recently took my son and another one of my pitchers to a showcase event. My son was throwing 82 in a bullpen (been throwing 83-84, but was off a little after pitching two days before). The other kid I've been working with was throwing 81. I spoke to the coach running it. He was crazy about my son and had little to nothing to say about the other kid. the difference? My son is 6' 4" (grown one inch since the start of the HS season) / 175 lbs. The other kid is 5' 9" / 190 lbs. Both are upcoming Sophs and just turned 15 within the past three months. He told me, "what I love about your kid is that he's 'projectable.'" I laughed and returned the compliment with, "you mean he's tall?" he looked at me like I was an idiot.

I have learned through all this that the term "projectable" simply means your kid is more "project" now than he is "able." 

 

Hopefully someday he will be able.........Someday.........

       
       
Ha!  That's a good one.  My son is still 13 at about 70mph.   Feel like he should be 75+ at least by now.  Then I have to remind myself no matter how big he is he has more.to grow.and he doesn't have his big boy muscles yet.  He will easily get to low 80's by growth and maturation alone.  Question is will he ever get to 90?  That's going to take a lot of work...  and time.  Til then he is more project than able!

Bumping Mr Bumstead for the hairy ears comment!  Haha! 

Had to jump in here. Son is 5'11" 170lbs. Up to 95 several times and touched 96 late in HS season. Headed to Clemson this weekend to check in to summer school on scholarship to get in 2 classes before fall.  I firmly believe he was passed up in the draft because of his size. He was overlooked forever before last summer due to his size until he ran it up there 92-93. I love the fact that he isn't big and there is bias, I think it's a bit unfair but also believe the aspects mentioned about throwing angle and distance from release to plate. We are fine with this "sizecism", the effective discrimination due to size that exists in baseball, it drives him. I firmly believe had he not had an emergency appendectomy last fall in November and didn't pick up a baseball for 12 weeks he would have been up to 97 this spring. He is flat out blessed with athleticism and a fast arm. even with that, he probably still wouldn't have been drafted. He is excited about Coach Lee at Clemson and ready to compete and get better. Advice for my fellow posters with diminutive kids, cultivate their desire to play and be positive, there's plenty of discrimination in life to not let it affect you in the game of baseball.

I'd take diminutive and 95 any day of the week

Absolutely. Not even close.

 

Not that 5'11" is really "diminutive" though

Your player needs to understand that it takes years and years and more years to work on their stuff, like you know Rome wasn't built in a day. Thats why guys like David Price and Sonny Gray chose to go to where they did  first and came out ready to play the ml game within a season. Others can be ready sooner, but its a long, long hike for most. Projection is important because they look at what you will be like at 23-25 not at 18 (college is different). 

 

Unfortunately there are coaches who want very tall pitchers. I remember a coach telling me once he prefers to look up to his pitchers, that is a preference, and they have reasons why. Work on the stuff, stop worrying high velo at 17,18, find the right program and go for it.  That's the secret to doing your homework during recruiting. I mean if all of the pitchers at one program are all over 6FT, there is a reason for it.  And that downhill plane does mean something.

 

I don't remember son ever being impatient as to when "that day" will come. It was about enjoying the moments. This is what we work on this season, this is what we work on next season.  I think parents push too much too soon these days. 

 

There is SO much more to it, not all about height and velocity, though that helps. Its also about being right handed or left handed, does he have a beard at 15,16 or a babyface,  how the pitcher delivers the ball, his mechanics,  run on the ball, inside outside, type of pitches thrown AND movement.  I mean if you throw 95 and it comes in as straight as an arrow, no one will care how tall you are.

JMO

 

Great points TPM, i will add that several of MLB scouts who saw my son told me he had a Plus curveball. I know he needs to master the change up and have heard he will need a slider in D1 baseball to get guys out. We'll see, i tell him all the time .....there's always room for improvement, guys catch up to fastballs eventually.

 

See link on height/pitchers effectiveness:

http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter

TPM is correct...so much to it..... play at the highest level you can and compete.... work work work... and grades do matter.... don't forge that

 

My son is now mid-level D1 at a program that typically wins 40 games a season... tops out at 88-89   nasty sinker , slider and curve.. he is 6'3 205 now.... BUT when he was 13-14  I had no clue where he would end up... 

 

One thing I have to say... the coach told him that they picked him over another player because of how he conducted himself when he was not pitching

If he has a good breaking ball he wont need a slider, one or the other. Two many breaking balls isnt good on the body.  But he needs the off speed so he will probably spend lots of time on that.  

 

 

Take a pitcher well over 6 foot who throws at a high slot ( some call it over the top) and you have a leathal combo when it follows a downward plane.

They discussed this the other night, CWS, forget which game.

 

While a 6'5" pitcher throwing 92 would be a higher valued prospect than his 5'10" teammate throwing the same velocity (all other things being equal), my observations are that most college programs will value today's velocity over tomorrow's potential. Maybe it's different at the pro level.

Noticing LSU seems to have a "type"

look at P on roster, most are 6'2"  and 193 Give or take, esp the Fresh/soph on there. 

I always told my son....You never know who is watching!!!....His travel coach a college player...always told them to be dressed before you get out of vehicle, don't dress in the dugout....and never let anyone see your parents carry your stuff....and smile at everyone....

       
       
Totally agree with the never know who is watching thing.  But times change and now the big thing is to have team mesh shorts and warm up shirts.  Take your BP in those and then get in your uniform.  So I wonder how that changes things?

Originally Posted by 2019Dad:

Another way of thinking about it is: "research has demonstrated a clear relationship between body mass and pitching velocity" See http://www.gammonsdaily.com/bo...-sabathia-conundrum/  So if that is true, the kid who is likely to gain body mass is more likely to gain velocity. FWIW, the relationship between body weight and velocity was apparently noticed here on HSBBW a number of years ago http://www.community.hsbasebal...peed-and-body-growth (Topic: Interesting Correlation Between Pitching Speed and Body Growth)

 

That research didn’t say body mass was the most important factor in velocity. It said Body mass and 9 temporal and kinematic parameters related to pitching mechanics combine to account for 68% of the variance in ball velocity for a collegiate population of athletes.

 

 

There are still a bunch of old redneck coaches and scouts in baseball. And there are things they like to see and things they don't. I will mention a few but I am sure there are more.

They like kids that look like ball players, hat on correctly, shirt tucked in, know where your glove is, a little bit of hustle, and head always in the game.

 

 A lot of baseball guy's I know don't like loud offensive music while your rolling into the parking lot, come hurrying in half dressed, outlandish ed tattoos piercings and haircuts unless you can hit like Harper, talking while the coach is talking, these types of guys really do still respect the game and want the youngsters to also........If your coach is Snoop Dog then disregard the above.

I think the team mesh shorts and warm up shirts are ok as long as it is a team they are playing on thing. My son's last 2 years of travel ball his team did that. Lots of them are playing in college now. They did have standards for even that though. shirts tucked in, hat on correctly, tennis/ turf  shoes - not slides etc

How do these two project?

       
       
Snoop dog would be a great coach!  I'm in.

My kids showcase team requires them to be in full uniform when entering the parking lot to the venue they are playing at.  Like said before, you never know who is watching.  If its an old school coach who does not like to see the shorts and t-shirts then you have that covered.  Better safe then sorry.  Don't want to miss out on an opportunity 

Originally Posted by joes87:

My kids showcase team requires them to be in full uniform when entering the parking lot to the venue they are playing at.  …

 

What is a “showcase” team?

This is one of those phrases that means nothing but passes for some strange sort of wisdom.  If you think you can put a competitive baseball team together without players with bad haircuts and tattoos listening to hip hop or some other wild music - GOOOOOD LUCK.

 

Did Barry Bonds respect the game while he was an all time great and then not so much when he became greater while taking steroids while being a world class a-hole the entire time?

 

How about Manny Ramirez in any of the hundreds of ways he was crazy?

 

Ted Williams practicing his swing in left field while the game was going on?

 

Any number of guys starting with Babe Ruth showing up to the park hung over or intoxicated?

 

Mariano coming in from the bullpen to Enter Sandman?

 

Actually what I think people are trying to convey and doing so very badly is this:  it is hard to take a player seriously if he doesn't have the right level of commitment to his talent.  None of the examples I gave of various knuckleheads and silly things detracts from the seriousness of all of the players when it came time for them to perform.

 

If you are a marginal player looking for a spot - then understanding the decision maker and what makes them tick is a good idea.  If I ran a baseball team in 2015 and a scout told me not to draft someone because he listens to Snoop then I think it is time for some new scouts.

 

   

Trying to differentiate a little bit between your run of the mill travel team and a team that is geared to college recruiting.  

       
       
What a professional athlete or a movie star or anybody else does or reveals after they become a success should not even be in this type of comparison.You go go right ahead and send your 17 year old boy to a baseball camp with saggy pants and flashing gang signs and all the disrespectful crap that goes with it, and then hold your breath and wait for the phone to ring.