@TerribleBPthrower posted:I was just looking at the Ivy commits for 2021 this morning. Some of them have surprisingly small numbers. I wonder if they had any kids choose to go a different direction as a result of them being a little more aggressive with cancelling than other schools.
If you are looking at the PG Commitments, not all Ivy commits do PG events. Also others wait until NLI/Likely Letters are received in November before they post a PG commit.
@baseballhs posted:That is exactly what Michigan State did. Athletes remain on campus for workouts in the Fall even though no one else is allowed on campus.
This is correct.
@Ripken Fan posted:If you are looking at the PG Commitments, not all Ivy commits do PG events. Also others wait until NLI/Likely Letters are received in November before they post a PG commit.
TerribleBPTHrower,
In addition to RipkenFans post, there are a handful of Ivy commits who don't care to publically share their commitment or simply forgot to post to PG because they've moved on to other things. I've known a quite a few recruits like this including my son. In my experience, PG has never been a great source for "telling the full story" with Ivy commits.
@baseballhs posted:That is exactly what Michigan State did. Athletes remain on campus for workouts in the Fall even though no one else is allowed on campus.
I didn't know about this. I wonder if Mark Emmert does. Seems like a fine line between training and playing real games.
One of the main points Emmert made is that he does not envision a scenario where football or other sports can take place if students cannot return to their respective campuses.
“All of the Division I commissioners and every president that I’ve talked to is in clear agreement: If you don’t have students on campus, you don’t have student-athletes on campus,” Emmert said. “That doesn’t mean it has to be up and running in the full normal model, but you’ve got to treat the health and well-being of the athletes at least as much as the regular students. So if a school doesn’t reopen, then they’re not going to be playing sports. It’s really that simple.”
Michigan State does have a few majors on campus. Maybe that’s how you get around it.
@MidAtlanticDad posted:I didn't know about this. I wonder if Mark Emmert does. Seems like a fine line between training and playing real games.
One of the main points Emmert made is that he does not envision a scenario where football or other sports can take place if students cannot return to their respective campuses.
“All of the Division I commissioners and every president that I’ve talked to is in clear agreement: If you don’t have students on campus, you don’t have student-athletes on campus,” Emmert said. “That doesn’t mean it has to be up and running in the full normal model, but you’ve got to treat the health and well-being of the athletes at least as much as the regular students. So if a school doesn’t reopen, then they’re not going to be playing sports. It’s really that simple.”
It's the opinion of many, perhaps not outright that players are better off being on campus than returning home.
That was very evident in Trevor Lawrence's plea that alot of the guys were more at risk by going home as opposed to being on campus, where they would eat better, have better medical care.
As well as coaches keeping their jobs.
Of course that was before the Big 10 woosed out.
@baseballhs posted:Michigan State does have a few majors on campus. Maybe that’s how you get around it.
Plus the rules are changing almost every day. Maybe "clear agreement" has changed since May.
@fenwaysouth posted:TerribleBPTHrower,
In addition to RipkenFans post, there are a handful of Ivy commits who don't care to publically share their commitment or simply forgot to post to PG because they've moved on to other things. I've known a quite a few recruits like this including my son. In my experience, PG has never been a great source for "telling the full story" with Ivy commits.
The last sentence would have been just as correct had you left off the last 3 words.
This article is based on investment advising in the future. It analyzes how the public views covid and its effect on the economy. I believe the story is relevant to how college and college sports are being handled this fall. I’ll skip the partisan prelude I provided on Facebook.
They blinded us from science - FrankinTempleton
@RJM posted:This article is based on investment advising in the future. It analyzes how the public views covid and its effect on the economy. I believe the story is relevant to how college and college sports are being handled this fall. I’ll skip the partisan prelude I provided on Facebook.
They blinded us from science - FrankinTempleton
Very good article. One of the better ones I have read.
@RJM posted:This article is based on investment advising in the future. It analyzes how the public views covid and its effect on the economy. I believe the story is relevant to how college and college sports are being handled this fall. I’ll skip the partisan prelude I provided on Facebook.
They blinded us from science - FrankinTempleton
I have believed the takeaway from the article for some time, but it is the first time I have seen it backed up so concisely.
I too agree with the basic premise that college-aged kids are not at high risk with coronavirus. I wish that all colleges had opened campus with online classes, all sports were being played, let students do what they want, and have large wards to take care of those who get sick (and keep the vulnerable at home). What has happened and is happening with colleges is a disaster.
This article is about consumer confidence, but it is simplistic when it blames the lack of confidence "on politics." Politics is about persuasion; a good leader is someone who, in a crisis, can persuade large majorities to take some action for the common good. We are all still taking our shoes off at airport security, even though we may not have agreed with the political party of the president whose administration determined that. In the case of coronavirus, there are state and local leaders, of both parties, who have effectively persuaded people in their states to take actions to mitigate coronavirus. However, consumer confidence is still low, as many surveys show. Why is that? You cannot say it is "just" politics, you have to ask, why, in a crisis, are some leaders not able to persuade a majority of people to take certain actions? It's a big failure of leadership.
The longterm effects from Covid for those younger than 55, even those with little to no symptoms, are not well known but are potentially problematic...
An article written from a business point of view is going to skew much differently than articles written by scientists.
Google is not your friend when it comes to scientific and medical matters. Scientists are....
Meant to add: we are averaging 30,000 dead, nationwide, per month due to Covid. Opening up colleges will only increase that death toll.
Increasing the death toll will cause more economic disaster.
People who look for simple solutions to complex situations are not the type of leaders you want to follow in a crisis.
How does opening a college increase the death toll? Herd immunity happens at around 20%. If young healthy people become infected it actually protects the people that are at the most risk.
@Stuckinnewengland posted:How does opening a college increase the death toll? Herd immunity happens at around 20%. If young healthy people become infected it actually protects the people that are at the most risk.
A few of the young people will die. Not many, granted. They interact in the community, though, they don’t teach themselves or prepare all of their food themselves. There are professors, custodians, food service workers, campus police/security, advisors, teaching assistants, maintenance people, coaches, support staff, counselors, training staff, strength coaches just on campus. Then there are all the off-campus parties, restaurants, bars, etc
It is an extremely contagious disease. The young people that get infected can still spread it to others, even if Asymptomatic.
Even if you eliminate the off campus stuff, if you just let Covid run rampant on campuses, it will infect the people I named above, and more, and then those people will bring it home to their families, and those they interact with in the community. That will increase the death toll.
Fortunately, it appears that most of the University Presidents are intelligent enough to grasp that the situation goes much deeper than simply “young people are extremely unlikely to die from it”
Eventually we will get stronger leadership nationwide, with more widespread contact tracing, and testing. More than likely we’ll be in a Nationwide lockdown/quarantine from late January through mid March. Hopefully we can come out of that with some intelligent approaches to re-opening, along with hopefully better treatments, therapeutics and maybe even a vaccine that works.
@3and2Fastball posted:Meant to add: we are averaging 30,000 dead, nationwide, per month due to Covid. Opening up colleges will only increase that death toll.
Increasing the death toll will cause more economic disaster.
People who look for simple solutions to complex situations are not the type of leaders you want to follow in a crisis.
The death toll has no impact at all on the economy. It's a rounding error. You can argue that the deaths are a tragedy, but they don't affect the economy. And the vast majority of these deaths are avoidable if older people simply stayed home and quarantined themselves. Keeping things closed is what is damaging to the economy, people's livelihoods, general health and emotional well being.
My son is now on campus and officially covid negative. Classes start tomorrow but the school is having the first week of classes online until students have two consecutive negative covid tests. Only two of his classes are hybrid too. His college kicked students off campus yesterday. Anyone who did not follow group gathering protocols was sent home for the semester and this was just the third day of four days of move ins. I believe a few baseball players got caught up in that too, not my son however. Can you imagine if you sent your Freshman to campus to play baseball and got a call a few days later to come to pick him up and he's now home for the fall due to violating policy? I think these schools suspending kids for the semester are doing the right thing and we will see more of it. Warn your college students!
I am confident that most colleges will stick with kids on campus this fall. Excited for college football and NFL soon too. Most importantly am excited for my son to get on the diamond with teammates in a few weeks.
@Smitty28 posted:The death toll has no impact at all on the economy. It's a rounding error. You can argue that the deaths are a tragedy, but they don't affect the economy. And the vast majority of these deaths are avoidable if older people simply stayed home and quarantined themselves. Keeping things closed is what is damaging to the economy, people's livelihoods, general health and emotional well being.
I think your opinion is reasonable, but I don’t think the numbers support your conclusions.
Where would you put the “old people” cut-off?
If at 65, the 45-65 group has been hospitalized at >20%. There are 60M people in that group. If 25% of those people get the virus, and 20% of that group is hospitalized, that’s 3M people.
There are 1M hospital beds in the US.
If that scenario started to happen, many in that age group would probably join the self-quarantine. Now you’re talking about 70M people (45 and older) staying home. Many not able to work. Not eating in restaurants, not flying, not staying in hotels, not buying new cars, not going to gyms, etc.
I don’t have a better idea, but I can’t envision any age based quarantine that doesn’t have a significant impacts to the economy.
@3and2Fastball posted:The longterm effects from Covid for those younger than 55, even those with little to no symptoms, are not well known but are potentially problematic...
An article written from a business point of view is going to skew much differently than articles written by scientists.
Google is not your friend when it comes to scientific and medical matters. Scientists are....
I don't like getting involved in these, but...what's the solution? We're 6 months in, we're not going to know what the long term effects are until well...long term.
Trust the science, trust the science, trust the science.
Science: It's not an issue unless you have preexisting conditions and/or are over a certain age.
So do we trust the science or not?
I can take something seriously and do my part to try to limit as many unnecessary deaths as possible, I can also question the narrative surrounding it as well.
@PABaseball posted:I don't like getting involved in these, but...what's the solution? We're 6 months in, we're not going to know what the long term effects are until well...long term.
Trust the science, trust the science, trust the science.
Science: It's not an issue unless you have preexisting conditions and/or are over a certain age.
So do we trust the science or not?
I can take something seriously and do my part to try to limit as many unnecessary deaths as possible, I can also question the narrative surrounding it as well.
Yes. In addition infections have been steadily declining nationwide for a month now, with deaths lagging infections by approximately 3 weeks. Looking at every other qeographical area that has been through this we should be approaching (near) zero for both infections and deaths within 3 months.
@Gunner Mack Jr. posted:
I am confident that most colleges will stick with kids on campus this fall. Excited for college football and NFL soon too. Most importantly am excited for my son to get on the diamond with teammates in a few weeks.
Some NFL teams shutting down practice due to testing irregularities.
I am in agreement that those that don't comply to the universities group gatherings should be sent home.
Unless we keep this thread specifically related to college baseball and covid, it will spiral quickly and turn into a carbon copy of the others before it. I know it is difficult as covid is at the forefront of our lives, but we have already exhausted and beat the hell out of the horse that is our varying POV's and there are no significant changes at this point.
@cabbagedad posted:Unless we keep this thread specifically related to college baseball and covid, it will spiral quickly and turn into a carbon copy of the others before it. I know it is difficult as covid is at the forefront of our lives, but we have already exhausted and beat the hell out of the horse that is our varying POV's and there are no significant changes at this point.
I agree. I just deleted my last post.
Guilty. But I did ask, earlier, whether D1 schools are having fall practices - sounds like some are, where the campuses are still open. Did closed campuses like UNC cancel spring sport (baseball) practices, even though they are moving ahead with football and the fall sports?
I read about some school that was mostly closing its dorms, but allowing some, including athletes, to remain - I found that vaguely offensive, although it didn't specify whether that was fall or all sports.
Cabbagedad, I hope that you are not affected by the fires, and I hope our other California posters are safe.
@baseball mom2020 posted:Herd immunity does not occur until around 60 - 70% of the population is infected. They are finding that some people who had covid and donated antibodies are now several months later antibody negative. So herd immunity may never be reached with this disease.
That 60-70 percent number is/was a guess based on a snapshot of information. There could be 20-50 percent of the population with cross-reactive T cell immunity from exposure to other viruses. That will impact the herd immunity threshold significantly.
Also, antibody negative does not mean someone has lost long term immunity as "memory" B cells and T cells remain. When these memory cells recognize the virus they produce new antibodies as needed. There are patients from the SARS outbreak 17 years ago that still have T cells for that virus.
Sons school has yet to have any team meetings, practices, workouts or anything. No small group stuff, either. They are to work out on their own. Athletic work out room is not open to them. No dates have been announced for practices, meetings etc. They have been tested at least once. If one positive test, the kid and his roommates are strictly quarantined for two weeks. They are required to wear their masks at all times outside their room and to not gather in groups.
Lot's of peer pressure to "not be that guy".
@MidAtlanticDad posted:I think your opinion is reasonable, but I don’t think the numbers support your conclusions.
Where would you put the “old people” cut-off?
If at 65, the 45-65 group has been hospitalized at >20%. There are 60M people in that group. If 25% of those people get the virus, and 20% of that group is hospitalized, that’s 3M people.
There are 1M hospital beds in the US.
If that scenario started to happen, many in that age group would probably join the self-quarantine. Now you’re talking about 70M people (45 and older) staying home. Many not able to work. Not eating in restaurants, not flying, not staying in hotels, not buying new cars, not going to gyms, etc.
I don’t have a better idea, but I can’t envision any age based quarantine that doesn’t have a significant impacts to the economy.
Well, per RJM's article, 92% of the deaths so far have been people older than 55. So something like 15k people under 55 have died from Covid, or <0.005% of the population. To me this risk level is acceptable to carry on, particularly if we implement masks, social distancing, sanitizing classrooms, daily temperature tests, zoom lectures for large classes, etc. I'm sure we'll see cases, but hopefully people begin to have a more measured reaction to a case and not equate it with a death sentence.
@TPM posted:Some NFL teams shutting down practice due to testing irregularities.
I am in agreement that those that don't comply to the universities group gatherings should be sent home.
I actually hadn't seen the NFL news but see it now. I have no doubt NFL will be playing, however. There is too much money at stake. I wouldn't worry about the ebbs and flows of Covid news re: NFL.
Son's school just released a covid dashboard. No students who arrived on campus Thursday and Friday tested positive and no professors or staff have tested positive this entire month (testing began early August for them). More students arrived yesterday and the last batch today. If they can get them all on with just a few students into quarantine and then have the first week online they should have a very good chance at sticking around for fall. That means fall baseball practices which are key for all but especially for Freshman.
@TPM posted:It's the opinion of many, perhaps not outright that players are better off being on campus than returning home.
That was very evident in Trevor Lawrence's plea that alot of the guys were more at risk by going home as opposed to being on campus, where they would eat better, have better medical care.
As well as coaches keeping their jobs.
Of course that was before the Big 10 woosed out.
Everyone is better off. Once football was canceled, young people had zero reason to comply with any of the so called mandates. Right or wrong, this is happening.
@PABaseball posted:I don't like getting involved in these, but...what's the solution? We're 6 months in, we're not going to know what the long term effects are until well...long term.
Trust the science, trust the science, trust the science.
Science: It's not an issue unless you have preexisting conditions and/or are over a certain age.
So do we trust the science or not?
I can take something seriously and do my part to try to limit as many unnecessary deaths as possible, I can also question the narrative surrounding it as well.
You can’t trust science long term. Science is constantly changing. Actually, it’s scientific discovery that changes. Look how much change there has been on COVID since November.
@anotherparent posted:Guilty. But I did ask, earlier, whether D1 schools are having fall practices - sounds like some are, where the campuses are still open. Did closed campuses like UNC cancel spring sport (baseball) practices, even though they are moving ahead with football and the fall sports?
I read about some school that was mostly closing its dorms, but allowing some, including athletes, to remain - I found that vaguely offensive, although it didn't specify whether that was fall or all sports.
Cabbagedad, I hope that you are not affected by the fires, and I hope our other California posters are safe.
Thanks Another,
For now, we are lucky again... no fire threats in our immediate area but smoke in the air was really bad the last three days. So many breakouts in the state, we are having a hard time keeping up with what friends to check in with. One of my Florida Gulf friends checked in with us. I thanked him and said something like "hope things are more normal back your way". That's when I learned that there are two hurricanes possibly headed that way. Geeeeezz.
With the baseball/covid angle, son drove back across the country to arrive for his new coaching gig last weekend, expecting to be presented with final options for housing, begin with private lessons, and begin with at least small group team conditioning/workouts. None of that has happened. Many of the students have decided to live off campus and have eaten up the available housing. All baseball/conditioning activities are on hold. So, he is living out of his car (still packed with all his belongings and his girlfriend), doing various mini road trips meeting up with former teammates, coaches, friends, etc. During his cross-country trip, he took pics of himself and said girlfriend standing in the middle of an empty Bourbon St. in New Orleans and an empty Broadway in Nashville. Just more Cabbage adventures 
Hopin' for the best for all of ya!
@cabbagedad posted:Thanks Another,
For now, we are lucky again... no fire threats in our immediate area but smoke in the air was really bad the last three days. So many breakouts in the state, we are having a hard time keeping up with what friends to check in with.
With the baseball/covid angle, son drove back across the country to arrive for his new coaching gig last weekend, expecting to be presented with final options for housing, begin with private lessons, and begin with at least small group team conditioning/workouts. None of that has happened. Many of the students have decided to live off campus and have eaten up the available housing. All baseball/conditioning activities are on hold. So, he is living out of his car (still packed with all his belongings and his girlfriend), doing various mini road trips meeting up with former teammates, coaches, friends, etc. During his cross-country trip, he took pics of himself and said girlfriend standing in the middle of an empty Bourbon St. in New Orleans and an empty Broadway in Nashville. Just more Cabbage adventures
Hopin' for the best for all of ya!
That's really neat!
@cabbagedad posted:Thanks Another,
For now, we are lucky again... no fire threats in our immediate area but smoke in the air was really bad the last three days. So many breakouts in the state, we are having a hard time keeping up with what friends to check in with. One of my Florida Gulf friends checked in with us. I thanked him and said something like "hope things are more normal back your way". That's when I learned that there are two hurricanes possibly headed that way. Geeeeezz.
With the baseball/covid angle, son drove back across the country to arrive for his new coaching gig last weekend, expecting to be presented with final options for housing, begin with private lessons, and begin with at least small group team conditioning/workouts. None of that has happened. Many of the students have decided to live off campus and have eaten up the available housing. All baseball/conditioning activities are on hold. So, he is living out of his car (still packed with all his belongings and his girlfriend), doing various mini road trips meeting up with former teammates, coaches, friends, etc. During his cross-country trip, he took pics of himself and said girlfriend standing in the middle of an empty Bourbon St. in New Orleans and an empty Broadway in Nashville. Just more Cabbage adventures
Hopin' for the best for all of ya!
I’ve been to New Orleans several times. It’s a popular conference destination. I’ve stood at one end of Bourbon Street wondering how many people would be on Bourbon Street if everyone who was there just to see how many people are on Bourbon Street went home. Now I know!
My daughter celebrated her second birthday on Bourbon Street ... at 2pm. We had lunch on Toulouse Street.
@anotherparent posted:Guilty. But I did ask, earlier, whether D1 schools are having fall practices - sounds like some are, where the campuses are still open. Did closed campuses like UNC cancel spring sport (baseball) practices, even though they are moving ahead with football and the fall sports?
I read about some school that was mostly closing its dorms, but allowing some, including athletes, to remain - I found that vaguely offensive, although it didn't specify whether that was fall or all sports.
Cabbagedad, I hope that you are not affected by the fires, and I hope our other California posters are safe.
Once school starts, it will be entirely online with the exception of labs and nursing program. Athletes are remaining on campus and practicing as if there will be a season come Feb. Everybody is living off campus or commuting except for freshman who will be in dorms.
Football was cancelled. Football team is still practicing as well.
I remain extremely hopeful for a 2021 College Baseball season. I think it can, and will, happen.
@3and2Fastball posted:I remain extremely hopeful for a 2021 College Baseball season. I think it can, and will, happen.
I hope you are right. And I’m surprised this is what you think.
@RoadRunner posted:Everyone is better off. Once football was canceled, young people had zero reason to comply with any of the so called mandates. Right or wrong, this is happening.
Football has not been cancelled. The REAL conferences that determine the National Championships (SEC/ACC) are still playing. 
I have to do something to swing this back from Covid back to sports. Even a good sports argument is better than any covid argument.
So who wins the National Championship? SEC or Clemson?
As an SEC guy I’d take Clemson vs the field. Clemson has a huge QB advantage over the SEC teams.
