HS Baseball Sabermetrics

Originally Posted by Little C:

Sorry, no I wasn't saying that at all. I live in Florida and baseball is very big in our area and I know that the coaches are under some pressure to win/be competitive. We are a very large school and are very competitive most years. Our coach is an ex-MiLB player and runs a great program and does it the right way, but his job is to win.

 

Let’s see if I get this right. What you really meant was, HS administrators want coaches who produce PROGRAMS that overall are competitive, but might have a year or even a few years where things don’t go well.

Originally Posted by roothog66:

This thread reminded me of my first paid baseball gig as a pitching coach at a pretty successful high school.

 

LOL. Oh for the good old days. In this entire area of 160+ schools of all sizes, I don’t know of any where the pitching coach gets paid. Heck, in our school district with 8 HS’s, there are no Fr sports, and the only coaches that get paid are the HCs of both the V and JV. !5 years ago though, it wasn’t uncommon at all for all the coaches to get at least some stipend.

 

…This was the early nineties and some of that same old instruction was still around from the 70's, but even then it didn't make sense to tell your hitters you want grounders because they are good for the offense and turn around and tell pitchers they want grounders because it's an advantage to the defense.

 

It makes perfect sense if your team is really good on defense because most HS teams aren’t. If your team is bad defensively, it is pretty stupid.

A lot has been said in this thread about ground balls and percentages. So I have to ask, are we talking about GB/FB out percentages, or GB/FB BIP percentages? For many years I’ve generated a GBO/FBO report, but no one’s ever asked for a GB as a percentage of all BIP report.

Stats, his job is to win. I was just in a meeting with him in regards to a fundraiser. I asked him what his job description was...he said to win baseball games! 

 

I believe the last guy at our school is no longer here because he didn't win enough. We finished well inside the top 10 teams in the state of Florida last year. We have a loaded class of 2016's and several of them will be starters on the varsity this year. My son talks way more about winning a state championship  than he does about playing in college or his own stats.`

 

I guess maybe there are coaches that are hired that are told to not worry about winning and just have fun, but that isn't the case here! Oh, and he wins by doing it the right way. "We ain't in Kansas any more Dorothy" and this isn't LL where everyone gets to play!

Little C,

 

I can sure understand if your coach FEELS his job description is to win, but I suspect that in reality, when you read what it actually is, that’s not what you’d read.

 

You may think your area is competitive, but I’ll tell ya, there’s a few areas in Texas, Arizona, and California who might make your area seem tame by comparison, and competitiveness isn’t limited to just those places either. Of course the object of every sport is to win, but there’s much more to it.

 

It may well be that the last coach there didn’t win enough to outweigh all other negatives, but trust me when I say, unless you’re the AD or principal, you really don’t know the entire story.

 

As I said, winning may be A primary factor, but at the HS level IMHO there are a lot of other factors that come into play.

 

What “does doing it the right way” mean? I hear that a lot, but I seldom see it defined.

 

In case you hadn’t noticed, once players leave rec ball, there are few if any leagues that have mandatory play rules.

 

I, of course, use the word "paid" loosely. I'm not sure if I wasn't behind after paying for gas back and forth to the school!

The HC was a former mlb'er friend of mine from an organization that used to teach hitting the ball on the artificial turf and running for dear life. There was some credibility to this in the days of astroturf, I guess.

Stats,

 

I agree that the contract he signed with the school admin. had more than "win" and a place for his signature. That we can agree upon.

 

You are correct...I don't know what areas are the most competitive. I really have no idea what city, county, or state is the most competitive. I just stated that our area is competitive, but if you have a link that shows where the most competitive areas are I would love to see it! 

 

You are right, I am not the principle or the AD but he was losing and he lost his job. This guy is winning and he still has a job! Go figure!

 

I agree there are lots of other things that goes into the job, never said there wasn't.

 

"Does it the right way" = Integrity, honesty, caring for his players....well you get the idea, though I have a sneaky idea that you probably knew what I meant in the first place. Now you don't have to wonder what it means anymore...unless of course the next person that uses it has a different definition!

 

I had noticed that about leagues that don't require mandatory play! Aren't those the leagues where the teams actually try and win? ...

 

   

Originally Posted by Little C:

…You are correct...I don't know what areas are the most competitive. I really have no idea what city, county, or state is the most competitive. I just stated that our area is competitive, but if you have a link that shows where the most competitive areas are I would love to see it! 

 

There is no such thing, and to be truthful, I’m glad. The reason I commented was that a lot of people say that as though their area is somehow more competitive than someplace else. I’ve found that when push comes to shove, it really doesn’t matter what area of the country someone lives that breeds competition. Competition come naturally when there’s a contest.

 

You are right, I am not the principle or the AD but he was losing and he lost his job. This guy is winning and he still has a job! Go figure!

 

I didn’t mean to imply his teams losing weren’t a factor, but that there were very likely lots of other factors as well.

 

"Does it the right way" = Integrity, honesty, caring for his players....well you get the idea, though I have a sneaky idea that you probably knew what I meant in the first place. Now you don't have to wonder what it means anymore...unless of course the next person that uses it has a different definition!

 

Do you believe many HS coaches in any sport don’t “Do it the right way”, even if their teams lose a lot more than they win?

 

I had noticed that about leagues that don't require mandatory play! Aren't those the leagues where the teams actually try and win? ...

 

You’re implication is that teams in leagues that have mandatory play don’t try to win, and I think that’s way off the mark. Every team tries to win.

Ok here goes. I never compared our areas to another area! YOU are the one that compared areas! I just stated that we were competitive....that's all! Believe me, I know there is no link to determine that...that was my point when I asked you where or how you determined what area was the most competitive!

 

I never said there weren't other factors to him loosing his job. I'm quite sure if he were selling the "hippie lettuce" out of the dugout and loosing, he would get fired for the weed sales before the loosing streak!

 

I agree most do it the right way, but I know some do "recruit" kids to come and play at their school!

 

My point that you seemed to miss was that the people running a league that has mandatory play are putting a higher emphasis on participation than on winning...that is all!

 

The fact is that coaches get fired for loosing sometimes. Yes, they get fired for other reasons too, but I would bet you that the first thing people think of when they hear of a coach getting fired is he must not be winning....right or wrong that is what a lot of people would assume. Why do you think that would be....could it be because one of the main things that coaches at a lot of programs are held accountable for is their win/loss record?

 

There is a thread on here where someone stated that a high academic program with a very long history of fielding a baseball team, is having the standards for accepting baseball players relaxed a little. I can just about assume that the pressure to win has just went up on the coach. Why else would the administration relax the admission standards for baseball players? At this point I sure hope you are acting like Arnold Horshack on Welcome Back Kotter and raising your hand and going oooh, oooh, oooh, I know the answer Mr. Kotter...."it's because they want to win"! 

 

 

Holy cow Little C, it looks like I’ve angered you about something, but I’m not sure what. I was just commenting on what you said about him getting fired. The implication I got, was that you were saying all coaches in your area get canned when they don’t have winning seasons. I apologize if I mistook what you said.

 

The fact is that coaches get fired for loosing sometimes. Yes, they get fired for other reasons too, but I would bet you that the first thing people think of when they hear of a coach getting fired is he must not be winning....right or wrong that is what a lot of people would assume. Why do you think that would be....could it be because one of the main things that coaches at a lot of programs are held accountable for is their win/loss record?

 

That paragraph says a lot. I can’t help why people think not winning is the main reason coaches are fired. But I opine that most coaches who move on, aren’t fired, and of those that are, aren’t fired because they aren’t winning. I know that’s a huge belief, but I suspect that’s because it gives people the feeling that their area is somehow superior because winning means so much.

 

I know I’ve seen a lot of HS coaches in all sports move on, but its really pretty rare that any are fired, let alone fired because their teams lose.

 

There is a thread on here where someone stated that a high academic program with a very long history of fielding a baseball team, is having the standards for accepting baseball players relaxed a little. I can just about assume that the pressure to win has just went up on the coach. Why else would the administration relax the admission standards for baseball players? At this point I sure hope you are acting like Arnold Horshack on Welcome Back Kotter and raising your hand and going oooh, oooh, oooh, I know the answer Mr. Kotter...."it's because they want to win"! 

 

What thread was that? From what you’ve said, I’m guessing the GPA for being eligible to play sports dropped somewhat. We have a very good private school here that has a 2.9 minimum requirement GPA for student athletes. I remember when it was 3.0, and when it was 2.75. The priest in charge of the school told me it varied depending on the number of athletes signing up for the various programs, not because they gave a hot about winning or losing. They have a minimum requirement that every student participate in some form of sports and that changes from year to year. Sometimes they’ll make it easier for students to qualify for a sport that’s not getting the participation they feel is necessary, or raise it for a sport where too many are signing up. What they try to do is make it so athletes that make one of the teams don’t just sit on a bench.

Just jerking your chain Stats! All is good man!

It's probably just your avatar Stats... ya little devil.

I am new to this community page but do topics generally drift from the main topic like this?
No criticisms, I'm just curious.

When Stats4Gnats gets involved, yes.  Don't feed him anything.

Sorry! I have to take some of the responsibility! I was warned, but I just couldn't help myself! Stats this angel is for your little devil!

Got it. I just thought I would mention that I started a new job with our school district in regards to the baseball/softball programs and eventually hope to incorporate the rest of the programs into it provided I can make it work over the next couple years.

Basically, the idea is that the trends and stats that our young players are putting up track fairly close in pattern from middle school to high school.

Weaknesses are still weaknesses and strengths are still strengths even though as they age there is a visible rise in the numbers.

The goal is to use the numbers to promote growth in the weakest areas and provide athletes with a balanced and well rounded 1 on 1 program. This is in addition to regular team practice. But again, while I truly and firmly believe that stats can be used in hs baseball, coaches have the responsibility to use them to build better players and not to out coach opposition.
With low fielding percentages, a coach could theoretically win with little more than constant bunting. But that's not coaching. That's not winning. That's not baseball.

Teach the game, not the win!!!

I agree Coach. I think a lot of our parents came into the program with the belief that since we had an Ex MLB guy as the coach, he would just wave a wand over little Johnny's head and turn him into a stud. Due to only having two coaches to cover both of our teams, JV an V with a total of about 40+ kids, his one on one interaction with the kids is minimal. He spends a tremendous amount of our practice time on fundamentals such as bunt defense, first and third, hitting the cut off man etc. I believe this is what you are a proponent of...teaching the game. I do believe that given a choice he had rather have a player that tendencies were to hit the ball on the ground with a few line drives sprinkled in for good measure verses a guy who is going to hit a lot of long fly ball outs. 

 

He believes in defense. You can overcome a guy going 0-4 but it is real hard to overcome the guy who kicks it around 2-3 times. 

Originally Posted by CoachDB:

Basically, the idea is that the trends and stats that our young players are putting up track fairly close in pattern from middle school to high school.

 

It sounds like you track the numbers from year to year for a player from 7^th grade thru graduating from HS. Can you expound a bit on how you do that?

 

Weaknesses are still weaknesses and strengths are still strengths even though as they age there is a visible rise in the numbers.

 

What numbers do you mean visibly rise?

 

The goal is to use the numbers to promote growth in the weakest areas and provide athletes with a balanced and well rounded 1 on 1 program. This is in addition to regular team practice.

 

Our coach would give several different parts of his anatomy to get more 1 on 1 time. Unfortunately, that 1 on 1 time has to wait until the summer program because the spring season is just too hectic and there aren’t enough practice hours.

 

But again, while I truly and firmly believe that stats can be used in hs baseball, coaches have the responsibility to use them to build better players and not to out coach opposition.

 

Sadly, far too many people only look at HS stats from the perspective of projecting the player into the next level, and thus get all high and mighty about them being uses because of small sample sizes, poor scoring, and too wide a range of competition. But if I interpret what you’re saying correctly, using them to spot help identify areas that most need improvement is a legitimate use.

 

Stats,
I would love to expound a bit. I'm always more than happy to share my research and findings, as modest as they probably are.

I am in year 5 of my project and my sample group has shrunk considerably from when I started (kids stop playing, move away, injuries, etc.). But what I have seen is this: let's say I'm watching a 7th grader with good BA and excellent power numbers but a high k% and not as much for OBP. As he ages and skills develop his avg will rise in the areas where he was already succeeding but I have also noticed the k% will rise as well. Say a BA at 12 yrs old is 275 and at 16 is 290 to 310. Obviously seeing more pitches has developed better hand eye but strike outs is almost the same or even a little higher. I believe it has something to do with not being taught plate selection. Coaches see high power and avg and assume that he is fine.
Just one example. I have roughly 80 more but I would like the chance to finish my paper before going to much more in depth. My apologies.

One on one time is always a struggle and it's a problem I am well familiarized with. Often I have had to take my weekends before and after games to set up one to two hour blocks for whoever was willing to show up. Often I hit baseballs in a cage by myself because nobody shows up.

Information gathering is also a struggle. I have watched more games and kept stats on so many games that I have had to implement a categorizing system for the countless score books and notebooks that have taken over my basement. My wife hates me most of the time. Lol.

Again with information gathering, I have also used other coaches stats with EXTREME caution as I'm not completely sure that everyone knows how or what to compute... Not saying I am the end-all-be-all of stats but I have spent a considerable amount of time and effort learning what it is I am looking at and it does take some self educating to learn the different formulas.

Again with information gathering, I have also used other coaches stats with EXTREME caution as I'm not completely sure that everyone knows how or what to compute... Not saying I am the end-all-be-all of stats but I have spent a considerable amount of time and effort learning what it is I am looking at and it does take some self educating to learn the different formulas.