Originally Posted by Bulldog 19:
Originally Posted by SultanofSwat:
This makes me wonder. Why do we think 100 is the right number? It's a nice round even number. But where did it come from?
ASMI Pitching Recommendations/Guidelines
http://www.asmi.org/research.p...on=positionStatement
I think I know how the Little League limits were established, and I believe that all such limits are basically set in the same way.
Roughly 10 years ago, before LL had any limits, they asked a subset of local leagues to take part in a pitch counting survey. Ours was one of the selected leagues, and the instructions were to count and record for each pitcher the date and number of pitches and innings thrown in the game. In our league the highest number of pitches in a game was 121.
LL massaged all of that data from across the country into pitch count regulations. Here's how I think it was decided:
First, it has to be recognized that to minimize the risk of injury, the optimum number of pitches is zero. If we consider only risk of injury, there is no sweet spot for the number of pitches. Most of us believe that the risk of injury goes up as the number of pitches in an outing increases. (As an aside, I'm not aware of any scientifically defensible proof of this, but it is a reasonable default position.) So we would like to limit the number of pitches in a way that provides an acceptable level of risk, and still allows players to pitch at all. As a practical matter, LL had to set limits that would be accepted by parents and coaches. The process, I believe, was similar to how municipal automobile speed limits are typically set: assume that 80 or 85% of people will drive at or below a safe speed. Similarly, LL set the pitch count limit such that roughly 80% of outings in the survey would have been less than the limit.
USA baseball came up with something similar, but with a significant difference, probably inspired by what happened after LL instituted pitch limits. Some coaches then began to ask their pitchers to pitch up to the limit, apparently believing that LL had implied that the limit was entirely safe. USA Baseball instead listed "guidelines" which are lower than the the LL limits. Presumably this allows for people to go above the guideline, but doesn't encourage them to routinely pitch up to a limit.